UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov Fight Card Odds and Picks

The UFC is taking the trip to Saudi Arabia once more, which means that Bullet is going to be on the card, and we also get some other big names around the card, topped by an interesting main event here.

The main event for the night features Israel Adesanya’s return as he seeks to get back in the win column against rising talent Nassourdine Imavov.

The co-main is going to be a fight between two pretty sharp strikers, as Shara Magomedov faces Michael Page in a clash that should bring the hype up in the Arena.

Multiple other interesting names are filling up an exciting card filled with a ton of international talent, and even though there are only 11 fights in this event, we expect things to start pretty well from the prelims.

Five prelims and six main card fights are bound to make this one quite a surprising event, and we are eager to see how things fare once the action starts in the ANB Arena in Saudi Arabia for what we expect to be a short banger of a UFC fight night.

Puedes consultar todas las cuotas de la UFC/MMA , el análisis de cada luchador y la apuesta final que puedes realizar en estos combates.

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov Fight Card Odds and Picks- Info

UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov

¿Por qué apostar por Israel Adesanya?

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out how this fight would have played out years ago. Izzy is the far superior striker. He is more elusive and has very good takedown defense, so he likely would have won as comfortably as he did against Marvin Vettori.

Adesanya has never been on a two-fight losing streak before. And he’s also never looked as bad as he has done in his last two fights. Thinking back again to that version of Izzy a couple of years ago, you’d never have expected him to struggle with the caliber of fighter adjacent to Sean Strickland. Nor get taken down and submitted by DDP.

It’s not just about the caliber; the styles of both Sean and Dricus were ones that Adesanya was expected to perform well against. He is a vastly superior striker compared to Strickland, and he is supposed to be more elusive and technical than the power-based approach of Du Plessis.

Furthermore, Adesanya’s excellent takedown and grappling defense made him nearly untouchable via a grappling gameplan when he was in his prime, but DDP made his takedown defense look average, and the South African also made him look like a white belt when the fight hit the floor.

You can’t point to his previous fights as evidence that he’ll beat Imavov here because he appears to have regressed an unquantifiable amount.

Izzy’s situation is further complicated by his current position in the sport. His chances of reaching the pinnacle of his career are likely over. Pereira has taken over as the main draw, and the consecutive losses to two fighters who just competed for the title mean that Izzy is probably unlikely to get another title shot at 185 lbs.

It’s an unusual fight for Adesanya to take, facing an unknown prospect for no significant gain.

¿Por qué apostar por Nassourdine Imavov?

In regards to Imavov, the Frenchman is well-rounded and reliable in pretty much every area of MMA. There are a few concerns over his gas tank, but what he struggled with in cardio against Strickland, he made up for against Cannonier.

Imavov’s wrestling and grappling are good enough to exploit that weakness against Izzy if he is going to show more signs of a struggle these days. Sometimes fighters do lose their high-level TDD, so it’s not unthinkable that Imavov could out-grapple Izzy here.

We hope he leans on that kind of game plan because we obviously still don’t fancy him winning a 25-minute kickboxing affair.

Análisis final de apuestas: Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov is a capable and improving fighter. It really wouldn’t surprise us to see him get a win here.

We are currently not guaranteeing a winner, but we think Imavov could easily look better as an underdog bet than Adesanya as a favorite, largely due to Izzy not being the guy we expect him to be.

We are taking the underdog here because Adesanya’s situation has us puzzled.

UFC Fight Night: Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page

¿Por qué apostar por Shara Magomedov?

Many people have grown suspicious that Middle Eastern and Muslim fighters are being supported by Saudi powers, particularly after Shara’s fight with Petrosyan. Of course, you cannot rig a result in a genuine cage fight, but like Petrosyan before him, MVP has the perfect style to ensure that Shara is covered by the scorecards.

MVP isn’t going to grapple him, so there will be 15 minutes at kickboxing range for both men to land enough strikes and put forward a case for the subjective judges to be impressed by.

¿Por qué apostar por Michael Page?

Whilst we do expect MVP to be the superior fighter and probably actually win rounds on our personal scorecards, we expect him to have a maximum 65%/35% dominance, which gives the opportunity for some crooked scorecards.

Furthermore, MVP isn’t much of a dangerous finisher, so it’s unlikely he will stop Magovedov along the way to prevent things from going to the scorecards. Of course, a stoppage win for Shara is the best-case scenario.

Análisis final de apuestas: Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page

We know this is a close fight between two high-level strikers. We don’t think there’s an argument that can be made for one man being dominant here, and the early betting line demonstrated that.

For us, that only reinforces the desire to bet on Shara here because we think MVP needs to fight the perfect fight, leaving no room for the judges to award a round to Shara. It needs to be so dominant that the judges would fear an investigation if they got it wrong. That’s highly unlikely to be what we will see here.

We think Shara Magomedov is more likely to get a win here.

UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

¿Por qué apostar por Sergei Pavlovich?

Sergei Pavlovich is a good fighter. We acknowledged his elite-level finishing ability on the come-up, betting him against Tuivasa and Lewis, but we knew he was extremely overrated as a martial artist and the right kind of technical striker would be able to expose him.

Bets on Aspinall and Volkov cashed and proved that theory. Somehow, the incredibly overrated Russian still sits at 1.32 against a more technical striker.

Understandably, a lot of people are thinking about rolling the dice on the underdog in Rozenstruik here, and we can see where they’re coming from.

¿Por qué apostar por Jairzinho Rozenstruik?

Whilst we once again think this line is wide and that Pavlovich is being overrated, we dothink Rozenstruik is a more favorable opponent than his last two.

Jairzinho might be more technical and likely to win across 15 minutes, but he doesn’t have the speed or frame that Aspinall and Volkov had, so we don’t like his chances of bailing out of exchanges when Pavlovich gets in close and goes full terminator mode.

Rozenstuik needs to focus on dodging those heavy nukes, and the defense must be on point if he wants a win decision. The thing with power is that you must land it to show it, and the Surinamese know it.

Rozenstruik isn’t reckless or defensively bad. He just isn’t quick enough, has good enough footwork, or dictates range enough.

Análisis final de apuestas: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Volkov survived 15 minutes with Pavlovich because he simply wasn’t there when Pavlovich came charging in, whereas we think Rozenstruik will be. And for that reason, Pavlovich is probably going to have quite a few opportunities to step in and look to connect a massive shot. Tom was just quicker, and Volkov was longer, but Rozenstruik will probably be there when that fist goes to make contact.

Bigi Boi has power himself and could simply connect in close, but there aren’t any fighters in the entire UFC that would back in a one-punch contest with Sergei Pavlovich, so we expect Rozenstruik to get the win.

UFC Fight Night: Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira

¿Por qué apostar por Said Nurmagomedov?

Said Nurmagomedov is someone whose ceiling has always been hard to identify. He’s well-rounded but never seems to be too dominant, and he’s capable of getting a simple R1 finish and making some fights super close.

The Russian is the more technical fighter here, so we think it’s fair to say that he should be the superior fighter if there isn’t a finish.

Nurmagomedov has a record of 18 wins, four via knockout, six by submission, and eight via decision.

¿Por qué apostar por Vinicius Oliveira?

Vinicius Oliveira is the opposite of his opponent. We can see there is talent there, but it’s being channeled through chaotic aggression, which always seems to have a limit.

We can think of so many Brazilian powerhouses that have no plan B outside of sending their opponent’s head into row Z, and when that dries up, the contrast is stark.

Análisis final de apuestas: Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira

Said Nurmagomedov by Submission or Decision could be an interesting angle for this one, simply because we don’t think he’s a potent and dangerous finisher outside of low percentage moments.

Lok Dog has been KO’d three times. This could potentially shorten the odds on the Said KO and make the Double Chance a bit nicer, but one way or the other, we believe The Russian will be able to find a finish.

UFC Fight Night: Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis

¿Por qué apostar en Fares Ziam?

Fares Ziam has finally made his mark. While he may have flown under the radar due to a couple of unfortunate losses, his recent victory over Matt Frevola has proven that he is here to stay and deserves attention.

The French man has a record of 16 wins, six via KOs, six by decision, four via submission, and four losses.

We thought he was gonna struggle against Frevola’s wrestling and pressure, but he handled that expertly and looked incredible.

¿Por qué apostar por Mike Davis?

Davis is talented, but we wish he took his career more seriously. It’s a shame because there are others, half as talented, who put their all into MMA.

The American has a record of 11 wins, seven via KOs, two by decision, two via submission, and two losses.

Davis appears to be intelligent, so we assume he knows what he’s doing. It’s hard to argue against seeking a different source of income that is likely more profitable and less physically demanding. However, if he fully commits to fighting, he could become a serious threat.

Análisis final de apuestas: Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis

Both fighters excel because they lack significant weaknesses. In the past, we have raised concerns about Ziam’s takedown defense and his tendency to get stuck on the bottom. We believe that Mike Davis will be able to exploit these issues, as his wrestling and top-side grappling skills are quite strong, even for a non-specialist.

The gap there seems to be the clearest differential, and if Davis is fully focused, he should secure the win.

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli

¿Por qué apostar por Muhammad Naimov?

Naimov is probably one of our least favorite fighters on the roster. He has a horrible style when he’s on the front foot and a dirty weasel when he’s on the back foot.

But in fairness, that is somewhat of a skill, and he employed it expertly against Nathaniel Wood. We may have been fuming with that result, but it goes to show why well-rounded fighters shouldn’t be counted out. They make sure that the margin of superiority is kept small, which gives them enough room to weasel a decision.

Why Bet on Kaan Ofli?

Kaan Ofli is inexperienced and hasn’t fought anyone with any UFC experience yet.We are not the type to put major stock in anything that we see from his tape, so against a well-rounded weasel like Naimov, we don’t think that we could ever see ourselves betting on him.

We’d like to see what he can showcase during this fight, but things are stacked against him here.

Análisis final de apuestas: Muhammad Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli

With Muhammad being the big favorite on the odds and things simply not looking good for Ofli, we are certain of two things. The first is that this is Naimov’s fight to lose and that it shouldn’t be that contested in the first place.

However, in MMA, anything can happen, but the odds are quite slim.

UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Thomas Petersen

¿Por qué apostar por Shamil Gaziev?

Like Jamal Pogues, we were impressed by Shamil Gaziev in the UFC until his disappointing performance against Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

He struggled to land takedowns early, exhausted himself, and was dominated by Bigi Boi, a much more skilled striker. This performance highlighted why the heavyweight division is often unappealing.

¿Por qué apostar por Thomas Petersen?

Gaziev is set to face Thomas Petersen, despite a resume suggesting he is a good wrestler, has not made a significant impact in the sport. Ultimately, the eye test matters more than a list of accolades, and it’s worth noting that Petersen was unable to take down Jamal Pogues in his UFC debut. However, he did manage to take down Mohammed Usman, which is a commendable achievement.

Usman gets more hate than he deserves, so we see that as a decent win at this level, but well, it isn’t too much to brag about, honestly.

Análisis final de apuestas: Shamil Gaziev vs. Thomas Petersen

This fight is likely hard to predict because we’ve only seen Shamil Gaziev defend two takedowns in his UFC career, and they both came from Don’Tale Mayes.

Whilst that’s a good sign, it does not guarantee that Gaziev can stay off his back in this fight, and considering the guy’s cardio issues, that’s a big issue.

We expect Thomas Petersen to take the win here, mostly because we believe that Petersen will be able to use most of his body fat to flatten Gaziev if he makes it to the ground with a takedown.

UFC Fight Night: Terrance McKinney vs. Damir Hadžović

¿Por qué apostar por Terrance McKinney?

McKinney’s record is 15-7, with all wins and losses coming inside the distance. He’s submitted and KO’d opponents at a very similar rate, but he’s suffered five KO losses and just two submission losses.

Furthermore, those knockouts have all been brutal, with two coming via flying knee and the most recent one seeing him get completely flatlined with a head kick.

He is quite a hectic fighter, and we believe he will show us more of that.

Why Bet on Damir Hadžović?

Damir Hadzovic has a 14-7 record, where seven wins have come by KO, and none of his three submissions have come since 2013.

The interesting fact lies in his losses, where five have come by decision. The KO loss was from Meirbek Taisumov, and the submission loss was to Moicano, so we assume he is also going to want to stand and bang in here.

Análisis final de apuestas: Terrance McKinney vs. Damir Hadžović

Hadzovic’s problems stem from his poor defensive wrestling and grappling; however, if takedowns are not a key part of this fight, then that line is incredibly wide.

Thisis going to be an R1 shootout where two very chaotic powerhouses collide. It’s the epitome of what makes MMA betting silly because chaos and high variance really can happen here.

The fight seems rather absurd and ultimately relies on a coin toss, but ours resulted in The Bosnian Bomber scoring an early finish.

UFC Fight Night: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

¿Por qué apostar por Jasmine Jasudavicius?

If you are only just jumping on the Jasudavicius hype train and you’re cramming her into parlays here. You are way too late, and the bookies have you on strings.

Jas has a strong style that makes her challenging to face. However, let’s take a step back. She is not a particularly skilled striker, and her level of competition has been quite lenient thus far.

Ariane Lipski, Gabriella Fernandes, and Priscila Cachoeira are among the least-skilled grapplers in the history of women’s mixed martial arts. It’s no surprise that Jas looked impressive against them; it was a beneficial matchup for her.

Any other win she has had at this level has been against girls who are almost exclusively grapplers, which is decent for her. Her losses came against more well-rounded opposition, where the difference in striking capabilities contributed to the L.

¿Por qué apostar por Mayra Bueno Silva?

MBS is not like those girls that Jas has beaten at all. She provides a similar striking threat, but she also has high-level BJJ and doesn’t have a history of getting stuck on the ground when taken down.

Assuming that Jasudavicius possesses Dagestani-like takedown skills does not guarantee her top control time; that belief is overly optimistic. Look what happened in that opening round against Lipski: she was forced to fight on the feet, and it looked bad. If she spends more time on her feet rather than on the mat, she is likely to lose.

Análisis final de apuestas: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

If Jasudavicius can find takedowns and move past Silva’s guard, she may discover a path to victory. However, there’s little evidence of Mayra getting stuck on the bottom.

We went back and watched every recent takedown she has suffered, and here’s what we saw: Against Chiasson, she immediately utilized an active guard to threaten an armbar, resulting in Chiasson bailing out after a minute.

In the Pennington fight, she was much more dangerous when grappling and took the back three times. She eventually ran out of gas due to the intense pace, and that’s when Rocky took over. However, we believe she was the better fighter on the mat when fresh.

In conclusion, it did give us some concerns about her cardio if Jas gets her wrestling game going, but we do think Jas is going to have to be careful early.

MBS has some sneaky good BJJ. She does a great job of making big moments, finding back takes, or landing impactful shots, and we think that can help her steal rounds even if she gets out grappled by Jas.

UFC Fight Night: Bogdan Grad vs. Lucas Alexander

Why Bet on Bogdan Grad?

Bogdan Grad is a tenacious guy. We’ve only seen him from two DWCS fights, where he got smoked by Tom Nolan and then went to a very competitive decision against Aswell, but the latter fight showed that he’s willing to bite down on the mouthpiece and get after it.

He threw quite a high output, especially when you consider he was also getting hit with an even higher output on the return. His technique was lacking, but you can’t fault that forward pressure, grit, and cardio. He did gas out in the third round, but he fought through that tiredness as well as you could hope.

¿Por qué apostar por Lucas Alexander?

Unfortunately, Alexander suffered the loss against Jeka Saragih because we were actually lining him up for a big fade in the future.

Had Alexander beaten Seragih, he could have brewed some of his hype, but it got shot down before it even took flight, and this is going to be another match where things do not favor him in the slightest.

Análisis final de apuestas: Bogdan Grad vs. Lucas Alexander

A tenacious guy is going to be a tricky style for the likes of Lucas Alexander, who very much appreciates his space and his ability to snipe with straight shots and kicks. If Grad crowds him like he showed he could on DWCS, we think he should be in a prime position to get in close and ragdoll a guy with low-level grappling skills or turn the fight ugly and put Alexander in all sorts of tricky positions in the pocket.

UFC Fight Night: Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Jamal Pogues

Why Bet on Hamdy Abdelwahab?

Hamdy has one of those hilarious heavyweight styles, with a skillset straight out of the UFC 2 videogame. He’s a former Greco-Roman Olympian. He has five KOs on his record, and his only UFC fight to date was a greasy split decision win over Don’Tale Mayes, which was later turned into a no-contest after he popped for a serious case of roids.

Greco-Roman wrestling isn’t a good base for MMA at all, and he has very little else once he gets it to the floor.

¿Por qué apostar por Jamal Pogues?

Jamal Pogues is a fighter for whom we have a soft spot. He is well-rounded, and while his striking game is basic, it relies on smart fundamentals.

Whilst some heavyweights want to get in close and throw nothing but overhands, Pogues patiently uses his straight shots to tag his opponent. He’s also shown good takedown defense against a wrestler in Thomas Petersen.

In other fights, he has used his wrestling to nullify a perceived striking advantage on the other side. His approach to fights has impressed us throughout his career, but the loss against Mick Parkin was a significant setback.

Análisis final de apuestas: Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Jamal Pogues

We were keenly watching Pogues’ line get closer and closer to an easy pick’em, but then we saw his recent Instagram story. It was a vulnerable post about him suffering from anxiety, struggling to sleep, and feeling the pressure here.

Any motivation we had to place a bet on this low-level fight has fully vanished. We believe Pogues possesses a superior skill set and tools, but considering we are in Saudi Arabia and he is battling personal demons, it might be wiser to bet on Abdelwahab instead.

Adesanya vs. Imavov Pronóstico de apuestas: Nassourdine Imavov

Magomedov vs. Page Pronóstico de apuestas: Shara Magomedova

Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik Pronóstico de apuestas: Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Nurmagomedov vs. Oliveira Pronóstico de apuestas: dijo nurmagomedov

Ziam vs. Davis Pronóstico de apuestas: Mike Davis

Naimov vs. Ofli Pronóstico de apuestas: Muhammad Naímov

Gaziev vs. Petersen Pronóstico de apuestas: Thomas Petersen

McKinney vs. Hadžović Pronóstico de apuestas: Damir Hadžović

Jasudavicius vs. Bueno Silva Pronóstico de apuestas: Mayra Bueno Silva

Grad vs. Alexander Pronóstico de apuestas: Bogdan Grad

Abdelwahab vs. Pogues Pronóstico de apuestas: Hamdy Abdelwahab