UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili Betting Odds and Fight Card Picks

Last Updated on March 8, 2023 1:37 pm by Erwin Noguera

Right after a banger of an event in Las Vegas, we have a Fight Night also in Nevada to continue the hype, and this time, we get exciting fights including the Male Bantamweight headliner that places Former UFC Champion Petr Yan against a rising contender Merab Dvalishvili.

The co-main event is the clash between the Heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Alexandr Romanov, who are looking to make their case for a title fight soon.

The main card will also feature the fight between Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann, which got rescheduled from being the headliner 2 weeks ago due to Krylov being unable to fight due to illness.

We also see Said Nurmagomedov, Khabib’s cousin, opening the main card as he faces Jonathan Martinez.

This fight night includes a total of 13 bouts, with 6 on the main card and 7 on the prelims, but we are going to see some quick action, as the event has 5 fights in the Bantamweight division, and 2 flyweight bouts.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

UFC 285: Yan vs. Dvalishvili Betting Odds and Fight Card Picks – Info


Saturday, March 11th, at 3:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Petr Yan -256 / Merab Dvalishvili +194

Alexander Volkov +125 / Alexandr Romanov -161

Nikita Krylov -178 / Ryan Spann +139

Ricardo Ramos -370 / Austin Lingo +266

Said Nurmagomedov -243 / Jonathan Martinez +186

Vitor Petrino -119 / Anton Turkalj -107

Łukasz Brzeski +159 / Karl Williams -208

Raphael Assunção +144 / Davey Grant -147

Sedriques Dumas -188 / Josh Fremd +145

Mario Bautista -909 / Guido Cannetti +529

JJ Aldrich -344 / Ariane Lipski +252

Tony Gravely +113 / Victor Henry -144

Tyson Nam +149 / Bruno Silva -192

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Why Bet on Petr Yan?

Yan enters on a two-fight skid, having dropped consecutive split decisions to current titleholders Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley.

The well-rounded Russian has just one victory in his last four outings, yet unquestionably remains one of the top talents in the ultra-competitive division but needs to get things moving in the right direction for that to continue to hold.

Why Bet on Merab Dvalishvili?

Dvalishvili has won eight straight after beginning his UFC tenure with consecutive losses, using his unrelenting pace and voluminous wrestling approach to suffocate and exhaust opponents.

He wasn’t as prolific with his wrestling last time out against Jose Aldo, but the indefatigable Georgian has still amassed 46 takedowns during his current run of success, including hitting double digits twice.

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Final Betting Analysis:

First, Dvalishvili is Sterling’s main training partner and best friend, which means he’s helped the champion prepare for “No Mercy” ahead of both their fights, and the rivalry between Yan and Sterling is likely to spill over into this one. 

It’s probably fair to ignore Yan’s loss to O’Malley when looking at this fight because that was primarily a striking battle. Dvalishvili, on the other hand, is almost a pure grappler in his approach.

Worryingly for Yan, then, it was Sterling’s ability to take him down and control him that led to his loss in their second bout. Given that Dvalishvili is one of the best takedown artists in the game, he’ll be hopeful of doing the same thing.

The Georgian has shown himself to be remarkably durable, though, and that could bode well here. If he can absorb Yan’s combinations and pin him into the fence to secure takedowns, then there’s the chance he wins, and we are placing our token on it.

UFC Fight Night: Alexander Volkov vs. Alexandr Romanov

Why Bet on Alexander Volkov?

‘Drago’ has been part of the promotion since 2016, and while his octagon record of 8-4 doesn’t seem that impressive, he does have some big wins to his name.

His massive stature – he stands at 6’7” and boasts an 80” reach – makes him tricky to beat, and while he doesn’t possess a ramrod jab, he can abuse opponents from distance and has the power to stop them.

Why Bet on Alexandr Romanov?

‘King Kong’ isn’t the tallest heavyweight, but he’s a powerful, stocky fighter who has brutally efficient wrestling.

From the top, meanwhile, he’s a threat with both his ground-and-pound and his submission game.

Stylistically, then, this should be a lay-up for Romanov – if it weren’t for the fact that he completely gassed out in his last bout with Marcin Tybura after dominating the first round.

Alexander Volkov vs. Alexandr Romanov Final Betting Analysis:

Essentially, if ‘King Kong’ can take Volkov down early and get into a dominant position like Tom Aspinall did last year, then he could find a way to win.

However, it is worth noting that Aspinall was fighting in front of his home fans and Volkov didn’t look in the best shape for that fight.

Given ‘Drago’ looked much better against Rozenstruik, and Romanov has never beaten an opponent on his level yet, then, the pick is Volkov via decision.

UFC Fight Night: Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann

Why Bet on Nikita Krylov?

Krylov is the No. 6-ranked light heavyweight contender.

He’s coming off back-to-back victories after a first-round knockout of Alexander Gustafsson and a unanimous decision win against Volkan Oezdemir. 

With a background in Kyokushin Karate, Krylov is a solid striker who likes to work in kicks.

But his best work comes on the ground, where he’s earned 15 career wins through submissions.

Why Bet on Ryan Spann?

Ryan “Superman” Spann is coming off a first-round knockout win against Dominick Reyes this past November.

That improved his record to 8-2 in the octagon, moving him to No. 8 in the light heavyweight rankings.

Spann is long and athletic with explosive punching ability. He also possesses dangerous submission skills and tapped out Ion Cutelaba last year. 

Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann Final Betting Analysis:

Both of these fighters have looked good in recent bouts, but they each come with serious flaws.

Krylov has been absorbing strikes and showing his durability. But he can get caught at medium range, which is where Spann throws with deadly power.

However, Spann might come with even more issues. He’s also hittable, and Spann’s chin tends to be weaker.

The veteran has also been showing poor intelligence during grappling exchanges, and Krylov could catch him if this fight goes to the mat.

Spann’s tendency to go full tilt with fights ending early make his cardio a major question mark.

Krylov should hold a major advantage if he manages to drag this fight into the later rounds.

UFC Fight Night: Ricardo Ramos vs. Austin Lingo

Why Bet on Ricardo Ramos?

Just 27 years of age, the Brazil native Ramos has been in the UFC since 2017 and he has a 7-3 record.

He has shown himself to be a well-rounded fighter, with solid grappling chops as well as deadly striking skills, as two of his UFC wins have come via spinning back elbow. 

He is still a very young fighter and is constantly improving. Although he has been inconsistent over his last four bouts with just a 2-2 record, when he looks good, he is great.

Why Bet on Austin Lingo?

Lingo, meanwhile, is also young at 28 years old, but the American doesn’t have the UFC experience that Ramos does. He’s 2-1 in the UFC since joining the roster in 2020. 

In the UFC he has shown that he can go the full 15-minute distance and win decisions, but he hasn’t shown any ability to finish the fight.

Ricardo Ramos vs. Austin Lingo Final Betting Analysis:

It’s hard to know what to expect in this one, largely due to Ramos’ unpredictable nature. We’ve seen him win in serious style – including with a spinning elbow in his last fight – but we’ve also seen him lose three times, twice by stoppage.

Lingo is a solid fighter, but he doesn’t excel in any areas of the game like his opponent does in this spot. From what we’ve seen, he appears to be a hard-nosed striker with serious durability. Overall this could go either way, but given Lingo’s toughness, the pick is the Texan via decision.

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Jonathan Martinez

Why Bet on Said Nurmagomedov?

The 30-year-old Nurmagomedov has been as-advertised since his July 2018 UFC debut.

He’s 6-1, with his most recent win, a submission triumph over Saidyokub Kakhramonov in mid-December, arguably his most impressive performance to date.

He’s displayed a solid all-around game and fights with plenty of physicalities.

Why Bet on Jonathan Martinez?

Martinez is in the midst of his best run to date. A winner of four straight and six of his last seven, Jonathan is fresh off a knockout win over durable veteran Cub Swanson last October.

A member of the UFC roster for nearly five and a half years, Martinez will be turning just 29 years of age in late April.

He’s had a handful of fights in his pro career at both flyweight and featherweight, but it’s pretty clear that bantamweight is his best option and should be his long-term home.

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Jonathan Martinez Final Betting Analysis:

Unsurprisingly, it’s Nurmagomedov who has all the hype on him. He’s 6-1 in the UFC and is currently riding a four-fight dominant win streak.

Martinez is on a four-fight streak in his own right, however, as a flashy striker, he just doesn’t possess the takedown defense he needs to win here. 

Nurmagomedov excels at forcing his opponent to fight his way, and while I guess Martinez makes it competitive, we don’t think it’s quite enough for him to pull the upset.

UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Anton Turkalj

Why Bet on Vitor Petrino?

Vitor Petrino is on a hype train, as he comes into the UFC Octagon as a 7-0 undefeated rising talent, who also took a victory via TKO on the second round of his Contender Series run against Rodolfo Bellato.

The Brazilian is a prospect who will need to prove his worth in his Octagon debut.

Why Bet on Anton Turkalj?

Anton Turkalj is another Contender series graduate, who had a bad night in his UFC Debut as he got submitted via rear naked choke in the first round by Jailton Almeida but is coming into this match trying to fix things and get his first UFC victory.

Vitor Petrino vs. Anton Turkalj Final Betting Analysis:

This one is difficult to pick because both men are largely unknown.

However, Petrino did impress on Dana White’s Contender Series, winning his bout via KO, while Turkalj looked to offer nothing in his octagon debut. 

Our bet is placed on Petrino to take the victory and start making his way through the UFC roster.

UFC Fight Night: Łukasz Brzeski vs. Karl Williams

Why Bet on Łukasz Brzeski?

A failed drug test for clomiphene overturned Brzeski’s Contender Series victory over Dylan Potter and left him on the sidelines for nearly a year.

He finally made his UFC debut in August 2022, losing a highly controversial split decision to fellow DWCS grad, Martin Buday. His seven pro finishes are split 5/2 between knockouts and submissions.

Why Bet on Karl Williams?

Williams, who suffered the first loss of his pro career at the hands of Bellator and PFL veteran Jason Butcher in June 2021, started 2022 strong with three consecutive wins.

He then stepped up in weight on 10 days’ notice to challenge Jimmy Lawson on the Contender Series, dominating for three rounds to claim a UFC contract. He stands an inch shorter than ´The Bull´ but boasts a one-inch reach advantage.

Łukasz Brzeski vs. Karl Williams Final Betting Analysis:

Brzeski greatly exceeded expectations against Buday, especially his ability to sustain his output.

That said, he benefited from Buday’s lack of speed and urgency, a luxury he won’t enjoy against the super-athletic Williams.

One would favor Williams’ faster, sharper boxing over Brzeski’s long punching volleys on the feet, and the former has shown off enough wrestling skills to prevent Brzeski from leaning on his usual grind-heavy Plan B.

Brzeski does have one thing going for him, though, and that’s Williams’ inexperience fighting at 265. Though Williams was able to manhandle Lawson, it’s anyone’s guess whether he can stand up to Brzeski’s body attack with similar ease.

Still, Williams’ physical advantages and ability to control Brzeski as needed make him the clear winner.

UFC Fight Night: Raphael Assunção vs. Davey Grant

Why Bet on Raphael Assunção?

A terrific 12-1 run, marred only by a loss to TJ Dillashaw in their rematch, gave way to four consecutive losses for Assuncao.

In October 2022, with his back against the wall, he defied more than three-to-one odds to beat Victor Henry for his first win in over four years. He gives up three inches of height against Grant.

Why Bet on Davey Grant?

After years of injuries and setbacks, former TUF 18 finalist Grant finally found his groove with three straight wins.

Competitive Fight of the Night losses to Marlon Vera and Adrian Yanez slowed his momentum, though he got back on track in May 2022 by pounding out Louis Smolka. He steps in for Kyler Phillips on around a month’s notice.

Raphael Assunção vs. Davey Grant Final Betting Analysis:

Assuncao slowed Henry down with a mix of sharp counters and takedowns, preventing the younger, busier man from ever building a head of steam.

He’ll have to do the same to Grant, though he’ll find that more difficult. Grant seems a fair bit more reckless than Henry and is also a far more focused body puncher; considering he traded with and at times overpowered the ultra-dangerous Yanez, I don’t see Assuncao scaring him off without taking real damage in the process.

Grant’s not too shabby a wrestler, either, so he should be able to keep it on the feet and overcome Assuncao’s precision with power and output. He lands the heavier, more eye-catching blows to secure the decision.

UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Josh Fremd

Why Bet on Sedriques Dumas?

Dumas cut a swath through Jorge Masvidal’s various organizations en route to an August 2022 Contender Series battle with Matej Penaz.

Though “The Reaper” entered as an underdog, he secured both the win and a contract by choking Penaz out in 47 seconds.

He’s ended six pro fights inside the distance, four of them via knockout and three of those via kick.

Why Bet on Josh Fremd?

Fremd made a two-month turnaround on short notice to battle Anthony Hernandez at UFC 273, ultimately struggling with “Fluffy’s” pace en route to a decision loss.

Those grappling issues reared their heads once again against Tresean Gore, as Fremd fell victim to a lethal guillotine in the opening seconds of the second. He replaces Abu Azaitar on less than two weeks’ notice.

Sedriques Dumas vs. Josh Fremd Final Betting Analysis:

Fremd is unquestionably a trickier opponent than the one-note, cardio-deficient Azaitar.

Whether he’s good enough to hand Dumas his first defeat is another question entirely.

Besides the striking skills with which he made his name, “The Reaper” has shown off the sort of sticky grappling game that Hernandez and Gore used to great effect against Fremd.

If this was a pure striking battle, Fremd would have a very strong chance of exploiting Dumas’ limited boxing and overpowering him down the stretch.

As is, Fremd has proven too vulnerable to one of Dumas’ better weapons. Much like the Penaz fight, Dumas finds Fremd’s neck in the early going.

UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Guido Cannetti

Why Bet on Mario Bautista?

Bautista now sits at 5-1 since a disastrous short-notice UFC debut saw him tap to a Cory Sandhagen armbar in 2019.

His current three-fight winning streak most recently saw him submit Benito Lopez with a bonus-winning armbar for his third Octagon finish.

That victory marked his fifth pro submission and the eighth stoppage win overall.

Why Bet on Guido Cannetti?

The 43-year-old “Ninja” followed an 0-2 TUF: Latin America runs with a 2-5 UFC start over seven years.

Undaunted, he’s since put together his first multi-fight winning streak in nearly a decade by stopping Kris Moutinho and Randy Costa in a combined 3:11.

Mario Bautista vs. Guido Cannetti Final Betting Analysis:

These two were originally supposed to fight in late 2021 when they were both coming off of brutal knockout losses.

The matchmaking made sense at the time, but not so much anymore. Bautista’s come into his own as a genuine contender, and letting him brutalize Cannetti after “Ninja” finally got to taste some sustained success feels a bit cruel.

Cannetti has nothing for Bautista. His aggressive slugging can’t hope to match Bautista’s slick kickboxing and the latter’s grappling has grown too potent for Guido to grind him out. Sheer chutzpah keeps Cannetti in the running for a bit, but Bautista should finish him well before the halfway mark.

UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Ariane Lipski

Why Bet on JJ Aldrich?

Aldrich quietly worked her way through the ranks with a 7-2 run, highlighted by a dominant decision win over Gillian Robertson.

Her next effort pitted her against Erin Blanchfield, who handed Aldrich her first pro submission loss since 2015 via guillotine. 

Why Bet on Ariane Lipski?

“Violence Queen” battled her way out of a two-fight skid with consecutive wins over Isabela de Padua and Luana Carolina, the latter of which earned her Performance of the Night.

She’s yet to recapture that form, losing three of her last four inside the distance. She’s knocked out six pro foes and submitted another three.

JJ Aldrich vs. Ariane Lipski Final Betting Analysis:

Lipski is having a hard time finding the path to success, and getting outslugged by Priscila Cachoeira has us thinking it’s time to cut bait. That’s not to say that she can’t overpower Aldrich on the feet, just that it is hard to trust her to execute against a seasoned, well-rounded striker with the wrestling to exploit Lipski’s forever-weak bottom game.

In our prediction, we have a token placed for Aldrich to take the path of least resistance and wrestles her way to victory.

UFC Fight Night: Tony Gravely vs. Victor Henry

Why Bet on Tony Gravely?

Gravely rebounded from his Fight of the Night UFC debut loss to Brett Johns with wins in four of his next five, including a bonus-winning knockout of Anthony Birchak.

He managed to win the first round against fast-rising prospect Javid Basharat last time out, but ultimately found himself outworked down the stretch for his third Octagon defeat.

10 of his 13 pro stoppage wins have come by knockout.

Why Bet on Victor Henry?

Henry’s years of success on the Japanese circuit finally led to a UFC debut in January 2022, and “La Mangosta” made the most of the opportunity by upsetting Raoni Barcelos at UFC 270.

Then came Raphael Assuncao, who handed Henry an upset defeat of his own nine months later. He’s the taller man by two inches but faces a one-inch reach disadvantage.

Tony Gravely vs. Victor Henry Final Betting Analysis:

As with most of his fights, Gravely has the tools to win comfortably.

He’s a fair bit faster and more powerful than Henry on the feet and boasts a much superior wrestling pedigree.

The question is how long Gravely can keep it together; he’s faded late and thrown away winnable fights before, which is a bad habit to have against someone as durable, seasoned, and persistent as Henry.

Henry’s takedown defense held up fairly well against Barcelos and he’s skilled enough off of his back to at least make Gravely spend vital calories trying to hold him down.

The tide turns right around the middle of the second round, allowing Henry’s volume to take over late and secure a narrow win.

UFC Fight Night: Tyson Nam vs. Bruno Silva

Why Bet on Tyson Nam?

Nam’s two-fight knockout streak came to an end at the hands of Matt Schnell, who edged out a split decision in January 2021.

A nearly 19-month layoff followed, which Nam ended dramatically with a one-punch Performance of the Night knockout of Ode Osbourne. All but one of his 14 pro finishes have come by (T)KO.

Why Bet on Bruno Silva?

Silva, a former TUF: Brazil 4 competitor, struggled his way to an 0-2 (1 NC) UFC started.

Subsequent efforts proved more fruitful, as he knocked out JP Buys and Victor Rodriguez for back-to-back bonuses.

He fights for the first time in almost 22 months.

Tyson Nam vs. Bruno Silva Final Betting Analysis:

We all know the Tyson Nam script at this point. He is heavy-handed, durable, difficult to take down, and disinclined to throw more punches than the absolute minimum needed to render his opponent unconscious.

Fighting him is a test of composure more than anything else; he won’t make his opportunities, but you’d damn well better not give him any.

Silva, in our opinion, is up to the task. He’s stood up to heavy hitters before and offers enough variety in his striking and grappling to keep Nam from lining up a counter. He walks the tightrope well enough to outwork Nam for a comfortable decision win.

Yan vs. Dvalishvili Betting Pick: Merab Dvalishvili

Volkov vs. Romanov Betting Pick: Alexander Volkov

Krylov vs. Spann Betting Pick: Nikita Krylov

Ramos vs. Lingo Betting Pick: Austin Lingo

Nurmagomedov vs. Martinez Betting Pick: Said Nurmagomedov

Petrino vs. Turkalj Betting Pick: Vitor Petrino

Brzeski vs. Williams Betting Pick: Karl Williams

Assunção vs. Grant Betting Pick: Davey Grant

Dumas vs. Fremd Betting Pick: Sedriques Dumas

Bautista vs. Cannetti Betting Pick: Mario Bautista

Aldrich vs. Lipski Betting Pick: JJ Aldrich

Gravely vs. Henry Betting Pick: Victor Henry

Nam vs. Silva Betting Pick: Bruno Silva

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