Last Updated on November 3, 2022 9:30 pm by Erwin Noguera
The UFC Apex in Vegas is ready for another run, as this Saturday we get a fight night that had a few situations in the making, with the whole main event being replaced.
The first UFC event of November sees the Female Strawweights taking the spotlight in an exciting match that will likely produce the next title challenger.
The Co-main event is Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez facing off in the Welterweight division.
Out of the 12 fights, 5 of them come in the main card and 7 more on the prelims, and we expect it to be an evening to enjoy for every fight fan that tunes in.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.
UFC Fight Night – Rodriguez vs. Lemos – Betting Odds and Free Picks – Info
Saturday, November 5th, at 4:00 pm ET at Las Vegas, Nevada.
Marina Rodriguez -210 / Amanda Lemos +175
Neil Magny -120 / Daniel Rodriguez +100
Josh Parisian -110 / Chase Sherman -110
Tagir Ulanbekov -180 / Nate Maness +150
Mark Madsen +180 / Grant Dawson -210
Darrick Minner +170 / Shayilan Nuerdanbieke -205
Miranda Maverick -530 / Shanna Young +380
Mario Bautista -245 / Benito Lopez +200
Jinh Yu Frey -120 / Polyana Viana +100
Johnny Munoz Jr. -200 / Liudvik Sholinian +165
Jake Hadley -275 / Carlos Candelario +225
Ramona Pascual +135 / Tamires Vidal -165
Where to Watch:
UFC Fight Night: Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos
Why Bet on Marina Rodriguez
Marina Rodriguez earned just two wins in her first five fights after joining the UFC but has since tallied four straight victories including five-round unanimous decision victories over Michelle Waterson and Mackenzie Dern in 2021.
Rodriguez quickly established her credentials as a knockout specialist, with four of her first six pro wins coming by TKO.
She has since proved she can also go the distance by earning the decision in eight of her past 10 wins.
Why Bet on Amanda Lemos
Saturday night’s clash will mark Amanda Lemos’ fourth octagon appearance since mid-December.
She has gone 2-1-0 in her past three fights, with her lone defeat coming by decision just 3:13 into her date with former champion Jessica Andrade at UFC Vegas 52.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos Final Betting Analysis:
Rodriguez has not successfully executed a takedown in six fights and has been dominated when the action does go to the mat, with opponents racking up an average of over five minutes of control over her past six fights.
However, she has all the tools to take the win on her feet.
Lemos is far better known for her punching power than any ground game, however, with seven of her 12 career wins coming by knockout, including six victories inside five minutes.
Unless Lemos takes the opportunity to switch things up, we are expecting Rodriguez to take the victory on the feet.
UFC Fight Night: Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Why Bet on Neil Magny
Neil Magny will try to avoid falling out of the UFC welterweight rankings when he comes into Saturday’s co-main event.
Magny has tumbled to No. 13 in the rankings in the wake of his second-round submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov in his last outing at UFC Vegas 57.
A winner in just two of four outings, “The Haitian Sensation” has seen six of his past seven contests getting decided by the judges.
And while he has 10 career finishes to his credit, he has not ended an opponent’s night since tallying a first-round KO win over Craig White over four years ago.
Why Bet on Daniel Rodriguez
Daniel Rodriguez rides a five-fight win streak into Saturday’s action, capped by a split decision win in a 180-pound catchweight matchup with Li Jingliang eight weeks ago at UFC 279.
Rodriguez’s lone defeat since joining the UFC came against Nicholas Dalby, a three-round unanimous decision loss almost two years ago at UFC 255.
A submission specialist early in his career, Rodriguez also sports impressive punching power and has finished opponents inside five minutes in two of his past five victories.
Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez Final Betting Analysis:
Magny may not have much left, and Rodriguez is precisely the kind of fighter that should indicate if he can remain competitive.
As impressive as Rodriguez is in the stand-up, he’s having trouble defending takedowns and has to overcome a seven-inch reach deficit to set up his offense.
Rodriguez can get busy and stay that way, but Magny’s experience, reach, and Rodriguez’s ineffective takedown defense can slow him down.
Unless Rodriguez flips the script and tries to bully Magny to the mat, this is Magny’s fight to lose.
He can still absorb a good shot and has that veteran resilience to keep him on his feet, and that alone should be the edge he needs to pull this one off.
UFC Fight Night: Josh Parisian vs. Chase Sherman
Why Bet on Josh Parisian
Parisian is also in need of a win here to keep his fringe contender status intact.
Parisian is out to go on his first winning streak in the UFC, having gone 3-2 in his last five fights.
Why Bet on Chase Sherman
Sherman recently saw his fortunes turn his way, snapping a long losing streak in a tough battle against Jared Vanderaa.
Even so, Sherman is on the verge of finding something else to do with his time as he’s posted a 4-9 UFC record overall in two stints with the company.
Josh Parisian vs. Chase Sherman Final Betting Analysis:
Sherman can take a solid shot and is often explosive enough out the gates, earning Parisian’s respect and dissuading takedown attempts.
Though Parisian has to ideally close the gap and take the fight to the ground, he’s going to expend a lot of energy just to get his offense started.
It won’t be pretty, but we should see some big exchanges right away.
Normally, a fight will favor the grappler archetype the longer it goes, but we don’t feel that will be the case here.
Parisian’s gas tank isn’t built for extended exchanges, so this fight might very well come down to who has more gas at the end of the first round.
Because of that, it’s not difficult to see why the line is narrowly favoring Sherman.
UFC Fight Night: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Nate Maness
Why Bet on Tagir Ulanbekov
Ulanbekov is a decorated Sambo champion, and he’s looked the part inside the cage.
He’s a more capable striker than one might expect, but still, the Southpaw does his best work when chaining together takedowns and working from the top position.
Why Bet on Nate Maness
Maness lost his first UFC bout last time out opposite Umar Nurmagomedov.
Before that, Maness built a nice three-fight win streak that showed off his well-rounded skill set, physical gifts, and general toughness.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Nate Maness Final Betting Analysis:
If Maness can make Flyweight successfully and without sacrificing performance, he’s in a good position.
It’s very difficult to consistently out-wrestle a larger and stronger opponent, especially when that foe has a kickboxing edge and more natural power.
Thing is that Maness stands 5’10,” and while he’s not exceptionally muscular for a UFC fighter, he’s also no beanpole.
Maness may struggle to make weight, and even if he does beat the scale, he’s still got 15 grueling minutes of wrestling ahead of him, which should edge things toward Tagir Ulanbekov.
UFC Fight Night: Mark Madsen vs. Grant Dawson
Why Bet on Mark Madsen
As for Madsen, the Olympian is gunning for the title.
I wouldn’t personally predict such a high rise for the 38-year-old.
Though his wrestling is strong, he’s had some trouble implementing it in fights, and his kickboxing is fairly average by Lightweight standards.
Why Bet on Grant Dawson
Dawson has shown some real promise in his unbeaten run. He has great jiu-jitsu, power in his hands, and excellent chain wrestling.
However, his momentum has been limited because he’s jumped between weight classes, and on a couple of occasions, looked rather vulnerable late in fights.
Still, his results cannot be questioned.
Mark Madsen vs. Grant Dawson Final Betting Analysis:
Dawson doesn’t match up quite as well stylistically as Madsen’s former opponent, and the short-notice nature of the booking is concerning given his conditioning flaws (most notably against Rick Glenn).
Even so, it’s hard to overlook that Dawson is simply better everywhere. Even in wrestling, he’s the more functionally effective takedown artist inside the cage — Olympic accomplishments be damned.
Being a decade younger doesn’t hurt his odds either.
This is Madsen’s first time in the cage with a young, rising UFC Lightweight, and it will likely not go well for him.
UFC Fight Night: Darrick Minner vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Why Bet on Darrick Minner
Darrick Minner (26-13) rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Grant Dawson with consecutive victories over T.J. Laramie and Charles Rosa.
He’s since dropped two straight to Darren Elkins and Ryan Hall, the latter in Dec. 2021.
He’s ended 22 pro fights by submission and one other via (technical) knockout.
Why Bet on Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (38-10) suffered his second professional loss in four appearances when he fell to Joshua Culibao in his UFC debut.
Two straight upsets have bumped his UFC record over .500, the most recent coming over T.J. Brown in June 2022.
Darrick Minner vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Final Betting Analysis:
“Wolverine” will want to do his best Elkins impression here.
Persistent as he is, he’s not a particularly adept offensive or defensive wrestler, which is a bad issue to have against a grappler of Minner’s caliber.
A man who surrendered two takedowns to Sean Soriano of all people is not going to have fun with Minner, who’s taken down four of his five UFC foes at least once and submitted the other.
As with the Elkins fight, of course, there’s a chance that Minner’s ultra-eager submission blitz saps his gas tank and allows Nuerdanbieke to do his usual grind.
Assuming Minner’s learned something, though, he should have the goods to overcome Nuerdanbieke’s one-note offense and polish him off on the mat.
UFC Fight Night: Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young
Why Bet on Miranda Maverick
Miranda Maverick (12-4) started her UFC career 2-0 before dropping a robbery decision to Maycee Barber and a far more justifiable one to fast-rising Erin Blanchfield.
She last saw action in March 2022, choking out Sabina Mazo for her second finish in the Octagon.
That win marked her seventh by submission and eighth overall by stoppage.
Why Bet on Shanna Young
Shanna Young (9-5) fell short in Contender Series against Sarah Alpar before losing her first two UFC bouts to Macy Chiasson and Stephanie Egger.
With her back against the wall, “The Shanimal” successfully pounded out Gina Mazany to notch her first Octagon victory.
Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young Final Betting Analysis:
With all due respect to Young, it’s hard to picture a scenario where she wins this.
Every single UFC fighter who’s attempted to take her down has done so, and it wasn’t just because of Young’s poor takedown defense; she willingly clinched up with a judo expert in Egger, which ended about as well as you’d think.
Maverick’s going to get plenty of opportunities to get her ground game going and is well-equipped to capitalize.
The big question here isn’t whether Maverick will win, but how long she’ll humor Young on the feet before dragging her down and going to work.
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Benito Lopez
Why Bet on Mario Bautista
The UFC debut of Mario Bautista (10-2) saw him step up on short notice to face Cory Sandhagen, who finished him with an armbar late in the first round.
He now sits at 4-2 in the Octagon, including a first-round submission of Brian Kelleher last time out.
Why Bet on Benito Lopez
Benito Lopez (10-1) followed his Contender Series decision over Steven Peterson by edging out Albert Morales, only to spend one year on the sidelines and suffer a decision loss to Manny Bermudez upon his return.
He returned to the win column his next time out, claiming a third questionable decision over Vince Morales.
He fights for the first time in more than three years.
Mario Bautista vs. Benito Lopez Final Betting Analysis:
There’s an argument to be made that Lopez should be on a four-fight losing streak, and the theme is pretty consistent: when his athleticism and flying knees aren’t sufficient to find an early finish, his toolbox isn’t deep enough to carry him through the later rounds.
On top of that, those controversial decisions came over opponents who’ve failed to post winning records in the Octagon, which bodes ill for his chances against a genuine threat like Bautista.
Bautista weathers an early blitz to break down Lopez over the full 15 minutes.
UFC Fight Night: Jinh Yu Frey vs. Polyana Viana
Why Bet on Jinh Yu Frey
Jinh Yu Frey (11-7) followed her winless (0-2) UFC start with consecutive decisions over Gloria de Paula and Ashley Yoder.
Then came Vanessa Demopoulos, who defeated Frey via a controversial split decision.
Why Bet on Polyana Viana
Polyana Viana (12-5) announced her arrival in UFC’s Strawweight decision with a first-round submission of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Maia Kahaunaele.
She’s 2-4 since, and most recently saw a two-fight win streak snapped at the hands of Tabatha Ricci.
All of her professional wins have come inside the distance, eight via submission.
Jinh Yu Frey vs. Polyana Viana Final Betting Analysis:
Both of these women have been underwhelmed in the Octagon, but there’s a key difference.
Frey, though she fell back into old habits against Demopoulos, seems to have at least recognized the passivity issues that have dogged her throughout her career.
Viana, on the other hand, once again threw away a winnable fight by allowing Ricci to sit on her guard for rounds at a time.
Frey seems the likelier of the two to put together and execute a winning game plan.
In the end, she wears down Viana with pressure and racks up top control to claim a decision win.
UFC Fight Night: Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Liudvik Sholinian
Why Bet on Johnny Munoz Jr.
Despite a strong start, Johnny Munoz Jr. (11-2) suffered his first professional defeat in his late-notice UFC debut opposite Nate Maness.
He got back on track by tapping Jamey Simmons but later succumbed to Tony Gravely’s power just 68 seconds into their fight.
He’s scored seven submissions and two knockouts as a professional.
Why Bet on Liudvik Sholinian
Ludvik Sholinian (9-2-1) emerged as a Cinderella story on TUF 29, beating top pick Mitch Raposo in the opening round; however, he couldn’t get past eventual winner, Ricky Turcios, his next time out.
He ultimately made his Octagon debut opposite Jack Shore, resulting in “Palmeyros’” first professional defeat since 2018.
This marks his first professional fight in almost 14 months and just his second since 2019.
Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Liudvik Sholinian Final Betting Analysis:
The only way Sholinian wins this is by making it unwatchable.
Munoz is by far the more fearsome Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist, and though he’s not known for his striking, it historically hasn’t been difficult to work around Sholinian’s basic pressure.
Thus, the one viable approach for Sholinian is grinding Munoz against the fence (and mat) for as long as possible.
So long as Munoz’s cardio holds up, he should have plenty of chances to initiate the grappling on his terms.
In short, he finds Sholinian’s back and polishes him off late in the first.
UFC Fight Night: Jake Hadley vs. Carlos Candelario
Why Bet on Jake Hadley
Despite missing weight on Contender Series, a submission of Mitch Raposo impressed Dana White enough to earn Jake Hadley (8-1) a UFC contract.
This set up a May 2022 UFC debut against Allan Nascimento, who out-grappled “White Kong” to hand the Brit his first professional defeat.
His professional finishes are split 4/2 between submissions and knockouts.
Why Bet on Carlos Candelario
Though he lost a controversial decision to Victor Altamirano in his second Contender Series appearance, the efforts of Carlos Candelario (8-2) earned him a spot in the Octagon.
He ultimately debuted in May 2022, falling to top prospect Tatsuro Taira.
Jake Hadley vs. Carlos Candelario Final Betting Analysis:
This feels like another match-up where Candelario’s lack of dynamism will come back to bite him.
Though he hypothetically possesses the skills to exploit the same weaknesses in Hadley that Nascimento did, Hadley is the significantly faster of the two and the more well-equipped to turn small openings into fight-ending sequences.
If Candelario does possess an overall technical edge, which is far from a sure thing, it’s not significant enough to overcome Hadley’s physical advantages.
I’d like to believe that Hadley’s loss to Nascimento was a learning opportunity, and if he’s taken the right lessons from it, Hadley’s in a good position to earn his first UFC win.
UFC Fight Night: Ramona Pascual vs. Tamires Vidal
Why Bet on Ramona Pascual
Ramona Pascual (6-4) rode a four-fight win streak into her UFC debut, which saw her fall to Josiane Nunes.
She was more competitive against Joselyne Edwards her next time out but still walked away on the wrong end of a controversial decision.
Five of her six wins have come by stoppage, four in the first round.
Why Bet on Tamires Vidal
Tamires Vidal (6-1) had the misfortune of running into Karol Rosa in just her second professional bout, resulting in her first defeat.
Her current five-fight win streak includes two submission wins and a disqualification over Ailin Perez.
Ramona Pascual vs. Tamires Vidal Final Betting Analysis:
Pascual is one of the least impressive members of UFC’s Bantamweight division.
It was flat-out comedic to watch her eat eight million kicks from Edwards without actually responding.
Thing is, Vidal might be even more limited.
Her stand-up is functionally nonexistent outside of an ugly overhand right and she only seems to know one or two takedowns.
Vidal’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu is good enough to win her the day if she ends up on top, but the way Perez rag-dolled her in the clinch suggests that she might not be able to drag down even a poor grappler like Pascual.
Pascual’s ability to do damage in the clinch and Vidal’s preference for wading into the pocket should result in a quick, ugly phone booth beatdown by Pascual.
Rodriguez vs. Lemos Betting Pick: Marina Rodriguez
Magny vs. Rodriguez Betting Pick: Neil Magny
Parisian vs. Sherman Betting Pick: Chase Sherman
Ulanbekov vs. Maness Betting Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov
Madsen vs. Dawson Betting Pick: Grant Dawson
Minner vs. Nuerdanbieke Betting Pick: Darrick Minner
Maverick vs. Young Betting Pick: Miranda Maverick
Bautista vs. Lopez Betting Pick: Mario Bautista
Frey vs. Viana Betting Pick: Jinh Yu Frey
Munoz Jr. vs. Sholinian Betting Pick: Johnny Munoz Jr.
Hadley vs. Candelario Betting Pick: Jake Hadley
Pascual vs. Vidal Betting Pick: Ramona Pazcual