UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo Betting Odds and Fight Card Picks

Last Updated on May 4, 2023 12:54 pm by Erwin Noguera

This weekend UFC 288 is going to gift us a stacked fight card, as we get not only a title showdown but an explosive main card filled with excellent fights and contenders.

To begin this, the venue chosen is the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, to host the title bout between the current reigning bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling, as he faces a returning fighter, in Henry “Triple G” Cejudo, who is ready to try and reclaim the title he vacated 3 years ago.

The Co-main event is a title eliminator match in the Welterweight Division, as Belal Muhammad faces Gilbert Burns in what could easily become a barn burner.

We also get a female strawweight bout when Jessica Andrade welcomes Xiaonan Yan into the contender run, as this fight could lead the Chinese fighter into a possible title match afterward.

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There will be a lot of lesser-known names that do have incredible talent in the prelims and make it to the main event.

This numbered event includes a total of 14 fights, with 5 of them making a great main card and 9 more being the prelims; we are sure that every fight fan will be entertained during the whole night.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

When:

Saturday, May 6th, at 6:00 pm ET at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey

Moneyline odds:

Aljamain Sterling -111 / Henry Cejudo -113

Belal Muhammad +102 / Gilbert Burns -129

Jéssica Andrade -204 / Xiaonan Yan +157

Movsar Evloev / Diego Lopez

Kron Gracie +144 / Charles Jourdain -185

Drew Dober -217 / Matt Frevola +168

Devin Clark +155 / Kennedy Nzechukwu -200

Khaos Williams -322 / Rolando Bedoya +240

Marina Rodriguez -144 / Virna Jandiroba +114

Parker Porter -178 / Braxton Smith +140

Ikram Aliskerov -217 / Phil Hawes +167

Zhalgas Zhumagulov +151 / Rafael Estevam -196

Joseph Holmes +142 / Claudio Ribeiro -181

Daniel Santos -196 / Johnny Munoz Jr. +151

Where can I stream?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC 288: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo

Why Bet on Aljamain Sterling?

Sterling comes into the bout on the back of an eight-fight win streak, including two impressive title defenses.

It’s true that “Funk Master” controversially won his crown, beating Petr Yan via disqualification after being essentially knocked out by an illegal knee, but he then clearly beat “No Mercy” in their rematch.

Most recently, he violently dispatched T.J. Dillashaw, although the former bantamweight champion was admittedly hampered by a shoulder injury.

Sterling is a fantastic grappler with a powerful wrestling game and a truly venomous submission arsenal, particularly if he can take his opponent’s back. He’s not the greatest striker, but he’s more than willing, and his range and kicking ability make him a handful for any opponent.

Why Bet on Henry Cejudo?

Henry enters the octagon after a three-year hiatus and will dive into the deep end to challenge for the title he never lost, but before retiring, Cejudo won six straight fights.

“Triple C” came into the promotion with a lot of fanfare as a 2008 Olympic gold medallist in freestyle wrestling, and after a patchy start, ended up upsetting Demetrious Johnson to claim flyweight gold in 2018.

From there, he defeated then-bantamweight champ Dillashaw via TKO in a stunning performance and became a simultaneous double champion by stopping Marlon Moraes a few months later.

While he was once somewhat one-dimensional, before he stepped away three years ago, Cejudo is always difficult to stop.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo Final Betting Analysis:

The big question here, realistically, is how much Triple C still has left in the tank. At 36 years old he’s probably still just about in his prime years, but with three years on the shelf behind him, it’s fair to ask whether he could’ve become rusty.

Sure, in a pure wrestling match, Cejudo would probably win, but whether he can out-scramble The Funk Master in an MMA bout is a legitimate question.

Triple C is dangerous on the feet, but even then, the only fighter he knocked out standing was a seriously depleted Dillashaw.

Sterling, of course, has taken heavy shots from the likes of Yan and Pedro Munhoz and has only ever been knocked out once.

Overall, this is a remarkably difficult fight to pick, purely because it’s hard to say whether Cejudo’s reputation can hold up to three years out of the game, particularly against a champion as good as Sterling; but we believe Henry Cejudo will finish Sterling and reclaim the bantamweight strap.

UFC 288: Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns

Why Bet on Belal Muhammad?

Belal Muhammad comes into the fight on a 9-fight unbeaten break and a four-fight win streak.

The only blemish was the no-contest against Leon Edwards.

The thing is that according to his nutritionist, Muhammad is almost 20 pounds above the weight limit for the welterweight division. The nutritionist first said it was 40 pounds, but later changed his statement.

In either case, Muhammad’s body is bound to suffer during the weight-cutting process, which comes only days after he ended his Ramadan fasting (Mar 22 – Apr 20). For a whole month, he ate no food and drank no water from dawn until dusk.

Why Bet on Gilbert Burns?

Burns is on a two-fight win streak after his loss to Khamzat Chimaev.

Gilbert lives and breathes fighting, as evident from the fact that he wholeheartedly accepted the UFC 288 fight even though he fought Masvidal just 28 days before.

He won the Masvidal bout by unanimous decision after three rounds of intense fighting.

This guy likes to throw everything at his opponents, even if it meant risking an early defeat. However, so far, it’s worked for him – he’s lost only two fights inside the distance.

Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns Final Betting Analysis:

So the numbers and the physical attributes point towards a very close contest between two very talented fighters. Fans will hope that the Muhammad vs. Burns fight will live up to their expectations. Whatever happens on Saturday, no one’s gonna be surprised.

This is arguably a toss-up, as both fighters have similarities in their resumes. However, the slight difference might come down to how aggressive the striking war is going to be.

Muhammad does a great job at prolonging a battle, especially with his numerous decision victories. He also has a slight edge in his significant strikes, but Burns is a solid choice too.

If things are good with his weight cut, we expect Muhammad to be able to continue his winning streak.

UFC 288: Jéssica Andrade vs. Xiaonan Yan

Why Bet on Jéssica Andrade?

Jessica Andrade has won three out of her last four fights. She defeated Cynthia Calvillo via TKO in the first round at UFC 266 in September 2021. In April 2022, she submitted Amanda Lemos with a standing arm-triangle choke at UFC Fight Night.

Andrade then won a unanimous decision against Lauren Murphy at UFC 283 in January 2023 but was defeated by Erin Blanchfield via submission in her most recent fight at UFC Fight Night in February 2023.

A setback against Blanchfield should only motivate Andrade to get back on the horse and prove she is still a contender at strawweight.

Why Bet on Xiaonan Yan?

Xiaonan is an upcoming contender in the strawweight division. Looking to give her fellow Chinese fighter (Zhang Weilei) a new challenge to defend her title against.

Yan Xiaonan’s most recent fight was a victory against Mackenzie Dern at UFC Fight Night on October 1, 2022.

She won the fight by a majority decision after five rounds in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Before that, Yan suffered two consecutive losses. The first loss was to Marina Rodriguez, via split decision at UFC 272 on March 5, 2022.

The second loss was to Carla Esparza, who won the fight by TKO via punches at UFC Fight Night on May 22, 2021.

Jéssica Andrade vs. Xiaonan Yan Final Betting Analysis:

Assuming Andrade is coming into this weekend in shape, and focused on executing her game plan. She has advantages all across the board over Xiaonan.

Andrade is going to fight with a lot of confidence in her power. She will be walking down Xiaonan, looking to land heavy punches, and kicks, and lead to level changes.

Xiaonan is a skilled fighter, but Jessica Andrade is a beast, and we believe she will use her strength to find submission in this fight.

UFC 288: Movsar Evloev vs. Diego Lopes

Why Bet on Movsar Evloev?

Evloev’s record is impressing. Anyone that can be unbeaten in professional MMA for 16 fights, is a problem.

Yes, he hasn’t faced any of the top 15 guys in the UFC featherweight division. But his wrestling ability is tough to deny.

Evloev is 6-0 in the UFC, but all of those wins have been via decision. You can compare Evloev’s rise through the UFC rankings to Khabib Nurmagomedov’s through the mid-2010s.

There haven’t been any big names, but that is most likely because of how dominant he is at wrestling. Evloev averages a whopping 4.83 takedowns landed per 15 minutes in the octagon.

Why Bet on Diego Lopes?

This is a tough fight to break down. UFC news broke on Tuesday of UFC 288 fight week that Bryce Mitchell was out. And Diego Lopes is stepping up on short notice to make his UFC debut. This isn’t a fun matchup for the newcomer.

The only real analytics on Lopes is that he is a 28-year-old Brazilian with power and good grappling skills–according to his 20-5 record and an impressive 18 finishes.

He will also have a decent size advantage over Evloev, listed as 4 inches taller than his Russian counterpart.

Movsar Evloev vs. Diego Lopes Final Betting Analysis:

This was a match supposed to be a top 15 featherweight battle, but Bryce Mitchell hurting his back and pulling out has caused a short-notice matchup between the undefeated Movsar Evloev and UFC debutant Diego Lopes.

Lopes is stepping up on 5-day notice to try his luck at defeating the No.10 ranked featherweight.

We believe that the Lobo Gym representative is going to have a really hard time on his debut this weekend.

UFC 288: Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain

Why Bet on Kron Gracie?

Gracie is absolutely one of the best grapplers on the UFC roster. He was a terror on the competitive grappling scene, and in the cage, he’s lethal when able to force a grappling exchange. Otherwise, he relies on pressure boxing to create his openings.

Gracie’s complete lack of effective offensive wrestling will always be a liability, but his style of creating chaos and hoping it leads to submissions should play well against Jourdain.

“Air” loves chaos and scrappy exchanges, and he’s happy to overcommit to punches or throw easily caught kicks, meaning it’s not difficult to dump him to the canvas.

Why Bet on Charles Jourdain?

Jourdain loves to throw down. He’s able to push a hard pace for three rounds and has a very solid natural power, which makes him a dangerous foe particularly late in fights.

He’ll struggle with control on the canvas, but Jourdain can make it a scrap nearly every time.

At 27 years of age, Jourdain already has a lot of high-level UFC experience. He’s faced his share of ups and downs, and hopefully, he’s going to come out the other side as a better fighter.

He has potential, and this fight may help demonstrate whether he can live up to it.

Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain Final Betting Analysis:

Hopefully, Gracie remembers his strengths here. If he’s opportunistic, he should be able to get Jourdain down somehow, and he’s on a different level on the canvas. This could be a great return performance from Gracie, provided he makes use of his greatest asset.

Jourdain has to fight control here. He cannot throw caution to the wind and engage recklessly. It could pay off, sure, but the more likely outcome is he winds up trapped on the canvas, forced defensive by Gracie’s elite submission game.

If Cub Swanson chose to tone down his wildness, it’s probably a good idea for Jourdain to do the same.

If Jourdain can play it patiently and refuse to give Gracie an easy path to grappling, he should do a ton of damage and pick his foe apart. He’s got the skill set to do so, but this match-up will test whether or not he has developed the discipline, we believe he does.

UFC 288: Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola

Why Bet on Drew Dober?

Drew Dober (26-11) — who first joined UFC as a late-notice replacement in 2013 — bounced back from a 3-4 (1 NC) Octagon start to win nine of his next 12 bouts.

His current three-fight knockout streak most recently saw him flatten Bobby Green with one punch for his second consecutive post-fight bonus and sixth overall.

His 19 professional finishes are split 10/9 between knockouts and submissions.

Why Bet on Matt Frevola?

Consecutive upset decisions over Jalin Turner and Luis Pena gave Matt Frevola (10-3-1) a good head of steam, only for Arman Tsarukyan and Terrance McKinney to drop his UFC record below .500 in a misfortune-plagued, three-year stretch.

Undaunted, he’s since returned to form with first-round finishes of Genaro Valdez and Ottman Azaitar.

Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola Final Betting Analysis:

Frevola is going to have to fight every instinct in his body if he wants to win this fight. Slugging it out with Dober is a losing proposition.

That’s because Dober’s got sharper boxing, arguably heavier hands, and a better chin. Frevola is tough as nails, sure, but Dober’s only suffered a knockdown in the last decade was a flying knee from McKinney that he shrugged off to win the fight.

Thus, Frevola has to lean on his wrestling, but even that might be a losing proposition considering how hard it is to control Dober when you’re not Islam Makhachev.

More likely, some good shots from Dober rouse Frevola’s fighting spirit before a few more put it (and him) to sleep.

UFC 288: Devin Clark vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu

Why Bet on Devin Clark?

A knockout loss to Azamat Murzakanov dropped Devin Clark (14-7) to 1-3 in his previous four, the lone win a third-round finish of the hapless William Knight.

“Brown Bear” entered his subsequent clash with Da Un Jung as a sizable underdog, but wound up dominating “Sseda” over three rounds for his eighth Octagon victory.

Why Bet on Kennedy Nzechukwu?

Kennedy Nzechukwu (11-3) rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Paul Craig by winning three straight, among them a pair of bonus-winning knockouts of Carlos Ulberg and Danilo Marquez.

Consecutive losses to Da Un Jung and Nicolae Negumereanu followed, though “African Savage” enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of knockouts over Karl Roberson and Ion Cutelaba.

All eight of his professional finishes have come via (technical) knockout.

Devin Clark vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu Final Betting Analysis:

There is a seemingly unbreakable line in the Light Heavyweight rankings above which Devin Clark’s approach stops working.

He’s too undersized, fragile, and technically limited to beat anyone above the line, but his bottomless gas tank and persistent takedown attack are Kryptonite to those below it.

We, however, are not entirely sure where Nzechukwu stands. It wouldn’t surprise us at all to see Nzechukwu use his freakish dimensions to steadily dismantle Clark on the feet, but Cutelaba found some success spamming takedowns on “African Savage” before his customary implosion.

We say Clark does enough in the deep waters to edge out a deeply stupid fight.

UFC 288: Khaos Williams vs. Rolando Bedoya

Why Bet on Khaos Williams?

A 4-1 UFC start saw Khaos Williams (13-3) rack up three knockouts, all of which earned him “Performance of the Night.”

Despite a late knockdown, he couldn’t quite keep the momentum going against Randy Brown, who edged out “The Oxfighter” via a split decision.

He fights for the first time in almost exactly one year.

Why Bet on Rolando Bedoya?

Rolando Bedoya (14-1) — a training partner of former Lightweight champ Charles Oliveira — hasn’t tasted defeat since his fourth professional fight in 2015.

He’s spent the bulk of his career in Peru’s Fusion FC, ultimately claiming its interim Welterweight title in March 2022.

This marks his first appearance in nearly 14 months.

Khaos Williams vs. Rolando Bedoya Final Betting Analysis:

We cannot envision this going well for Bedoya. Striking defense is his biggest bugbear, and it’s not like his offense is so devastating that he can overwhelm Williams in a straight-up firefight.

“The Machine” relies on aggression and output to mask his technical deficiencies, which is the exact wrong approach to have against someone who can put your lights out in an instant.

Bedoya does have a great top game, but he hasn’t shown off enough offensive wrestling chops to make us think he can consistently drag Williams to the mat. Odds are they slug it out from the moment the bell rings to the moment Bedoya’s unconscious body hits the canvas.

UFC 288: Marina Rodriguez vs. Virna Jandiroba

Why Bet on Marina Rodriguez?

Undaunted by a narrow loss to Carla Esparza, Marina Rodriguez (16-2-2) put herself back on the brink of title shots with four straight wins, among them a bonus-winning knockout of Amanda Ribas and a main event victory over Mackenzie Dern.

Then came Amanda Lemos, who bludgeoned Rodriguez into submission early in the third round.

Why Bet on Virna Jandiroba?

Virna Jandiroba (18-3) — the former Invicta Strawweight champ — put a UFC debut loss to Carla Esparza behind her by scoring two straight submissions.

She’s since alternated losses and wins, most recently cruising past fellow onetime titlist Angela Hill in May 2022.

Thirteen of her 14 stoppage wins have come via submission.

Marina Rodriguez vs. Virna Jandiroba Final Betting Analysis:

Rodriguez’s questionable grappling, which has dogged her since her UFC debut draws with Randa Markos, looks to be her undoing here.

Jandiroba is a physical beast with excellent wrestling and a top-notch top game; considering Rodriguez has given up at least one takedown in each of her last seven fights, “Carcara” will have plenty of opportunities to ply her craft.

That said, Jandiroba is prone to cardio issues and questionable game plans, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Rodriguez do what she did against Amanda Ribas and flatten her fellow Brazilian after a lengthy stretch of being dominated on the mat.

Still, there’s enough going Jandiroba’s way for me to confidently call a repeat of last May’s win over Angela Hill. She neutralizes Rodriguez on the mat for two rounds and survives a late comeback attempt to claim the win.

UFC 288: Parker Porter vs. Braxton Smith

Why Bet on Parker Porter?

Parker Parker’s (13-8) ignominious UFC debut saw him stopped in one by Chris Daukaus, snapping a two-fight winning streak.

Though he went on to win his next three, first-round stoppage losses to Jailton Almeida and Justin Tafa dropped his UFC record to 3-3.

His eight pro finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.

Why Bet on Braxton Smith?

Braxton Smith (5-1) made his MMA debut in 2014, falling to fellow debutant and future UFC competitor Chase Sherman by first-round stoppage.

“The Beautiful Monster” would not return to action for another eight years, though he’s made up for lost time with five consecutive first-round knockouts.

Parker Porter vs. Braxton Smith Final Betting Analysis:

Either Smith blasts Porter into oblivion in the first three minutes or Porter turns this into an appallingly ugly slog, and the latter looks far more likely from where we are sitting.

There’s very, very little to Smith’s game outside of a heavy right hand he telegraphs months in advance; as limited Porter may be, he’s at least good enough to not get caught by it before getting a proper grind going.

Porter’s grit and willingness to wrestle look like too much for a man raised on a diet of tomato cans. He avoids the big right hands, mugs Smith against the fence, and ultimately drags him to the mat before locking up some sort of submission you only see from low-level Heavyweights.

UFC 288: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Phil Hawes

Why Bet on Ikram Aliskerov?

Ikram Aliskerov (13-1) lost his unbeaten record in his ninth pro fight, which pitted him against Khamzat Chimaev and resulted in a vicious uppercut knockout.

He got back on track with three straight finishes in Brave CF, took a pit stop in Eagle FC, and then finished Mario Sousa on Contender Series to earn a UFC contract.

Why Bet on Phil Hawes?

After a triumphant return to Contender Series saw him stop Khadzhimurat Bestaev in 78 seconds, Phil Hawes (12-4) punched his way into Middleweight contention with three straight wins.

He now finds himself amid a 1-2 skid, a mauling of Deron Winn sandwiched between knockout losses to Chris Curtis and Roman Dolidze.

Ikram Aliskerov vs. Phil Hawes Final Betting Analysis:

What’s so frustrating about Hawes is that he clearly has the skills and talent to be a threat, but he just keeps finding ways to lose.

The Curtis fight was perhaps the most prominent example, as he was taking “The Action Man” behind the woodshed before getting clipped by a stray shot and falling to pieces.

The power, striking technique, and wrestling pedigree can’t seem to congeal into a consistently successful approach.

All of that’s to say that he’s good enough to beat Aliskerov. He’s unquestionably the more dangerous striker and his wrestling, though surprisingly ineffective at the highest level, is presumably sufficient to keep it standing.

Aliskerov just seems like a far more reliable operator, especially since Hawes has faded late in the past. After a relatively even start, Aliskerov’s dogged chain wrestling lets him pull away down the stretch to edge out a competitive decision.

UFC 288: Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Rafael Estevam

Why Bet on Zhalgas Zhumagulov?

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8) capped off his run in Fight Nights Global by beating Tagir Ulanbekov for the Flyweight title and defending it against Ali Bagautinov.

He’s currently 1-5 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, though his last two defeats came via hugely controversial split decisions.

Why Bet on Rafael Estevam?

A torrid run in Shooto Brasil sent Rafael Estevam (11-0) to Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA), where he upset Filipe Esteves in his promotional debut.

He was similarly successful on Contender Series, pounding out Joao Elias to earn himself a contract.

He steps in for Nate Maness on little less than one month’s notice, having lost original debut foe Carlos Candelario to injury.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Rafael Estevam Final Betting Analysis:

Zhumagulov deserves a break — of his four UFC decision losses, three of them should have gone his way, meaning he’s sitting on an Octagon record that should be 4-2.

He’s got the means to do it too; Estevam doesn’t have much to offer on the feet against Zhumagulov’s swarming offense.

What Estevam does have is strong chain wrestling and a terrific gas tank. Zhumagulov struggles down the stretch fairly consistently, and Amir Albazi showed that some of the wrestling issues that dogged Zhumagulov in FNG have yet to be fully addressed.

Expect Zhumagulov to sprawl-and-brawl his way to an excellent start, only to slowly succumb to Estevam’s grappling assault and lose another heartbreaking decision.

UFC 288: Joseph Holmes vs. Claudio Ribeiro

Why Bet on Joseph Holmes?

Though his submission finish of Shonte Barnes on Contender Series failed to earn Joseph Holmes (8-3) a UFC contract, his Lookin’ for a Fight knockout of Jhonoven Pati did the trick one month later.

“Ugly Man Joe” is 1-2 since, choking out Alen Amedovski while falling to Jamie Pickett and Jun Yong Park.

Why Bet on Claudio Ribeiro?

Ribeiro capped off a six-fight win streak and claimed a UFC contract by knocking out Ivan Valenzuela just 25 seconds into their Contender Series bout.

This set up a UFC debut against fellow slugger Abdul Razak Alhassan, who bombed Ribeiro out less than 30 seconds into the second round.

All of his professional wins have come via knockout, eight of them in the first round.

Joseph Holmes vs. Claudio Ribeiro Final Betting Analysis:

Holmes really should win this fight. Ribeiro hits hard, but he’s so limited in every other aspect of MMA that even a slow, awkward technician like Holmes ought to beat him.

All Ribeiro has to offer are wild haymakers and hard low kicks, while Holmes at least boasts some decent boxing and grappling.

As hard as it is to overlook the fact that Holmes lost to Jamie Pickett of all people, Ribeiro dropped several rounds to a 40-year-old journeyman three fights back and struggled to get off the fence against Alhassan.

We’ll bite the bullet and say “Ugly Man Joe” leans on his jab and clinch work to set up a fight-ending submission sometime in the second round.

UFC 288: Daniel Santos vs. Johnny Munoz Jr.

Why Bet on Daniel Santos?

After nearly 2.5 years on the sideline, Daniel Santos (9-2) finally made his UFC debut in April 2022, ultimately losing by a decision to Julio Arce.

His sophomore effort six months later pitted him against John Castaneda, whom Santos survived a disastrous first round to brutalize late in the second and claim “Fight of the Night.”

Why Bet on Johnny Munoz Jr.?

Johnny Munoz’s (12-2) perfect professional start (10-0), which took place entirely in King of the Cage, saw him claim the promotion’s Bantamweight title before ultimately joining UFC in 2020.

His 2-2 UFC run has seen him beat Jamey Simmons and Liudvik Sholinian amidst losses to Nate Maness and Tony Gravely.

Seven of his professional wins, including the one over Simmons, came via submission.

Daniel Santos vs. Johnny Munoz Jr. Final Betting Analysis:

“Willycat” is the kind of kill-or-be-killed lunatic who reminds us that, for all we crow about technical wizardry and strategic planning, there’s nothing quite like watching a dude beat the piss out of another dude with no regard for his well-being.

Not saying Munoz is doomed, of course. Besides his top-notch ground game, he’s got a great jab that could bedevil the ever-hittable Santos.

What he doesn’t have is a great gas tank, which is the last thing you want against a relentless pressure fighter.

Between Santos’ output and excellent scrambling ability, Munoz will be hard-pressed to slow things to his preferred pace, and that jab will stop working in a hurry once “Kid Kvenbo” starts losing steam.

Munoz clowns on Santos for about a round and a half before Santos’ pressure finally breaks through and buries Munoz in power shots.