UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 Betting Odds and Fight Card Picks

Last Updated on March 15, 2023 3:02 pm by Erwin Noguera

With a back and forth between numbered events and fight nights, we now travel right into the O2 Arena in London, England to witness what should be the end of a trilogy, once Leon Edwards steps into the octagon in front of his home crowd to defend the belt against the former champion, Kamaru “Nigerian Nightmare” Usman for UFC 286.

The co-main event is one hell of a lightweight clash, as we get to see the always-exciting Justin Gaethje facing off against a Rising Contender in Rafael Fiziev.

The rest of the main card will also feature the fight between Gunnar Nelson and Bryan Barbarena, a clash between Jennifer Maia and Casey O’Neill a fight between Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze.

This fight night includes a total of 15 fights, with 5 of them making a great main card and 10 more to make up the prelims, in an extended and exciting event.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

When:

Saturday, March 18th, at 1:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Leon Edwards +191 / Kamaru Usman -250

Justin Gaethje +184 / Rafael Fiziev -243

Gunnar Nelson -416 / Bryan Barberena +292

Jennifer Maia +142 / Casey O’Neill -181

Marvin Vettori -294 / Roman Dolidze +217

Jack Shore -526 / Makwan +349

Chris Duncan -108 / Omar Morales -116

Sam Patterson -285 / Yanal Ashmoz +216

Muhammad Mokaev -833 / Jafel Filho +510

Lerone Murphy -172 / Gabriel Santos +134

Christian Leroy Duncan -212 / Duško Todorović +162

Jake Hadley -370 / Malcolm Gordon +270

Joanne Wood -181 / Luana Carolina +142

Jai Herbert +140 / Ľudovít Klein -181

Veronica Hardy +311 / Juliana Miller -454

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC 286: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman

Why Bet on Leon Edwards?

When Leon Edwards rematched Kamaru Usman for the 170-pound crown back in August 2022, very few fans were giving him a chance of winning.

After all, ‘Rocky’ had lost decisively to Usman the first time they’d faced off in 2015, and while he’d improved in the years that followed that fight, so had ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’.

Indeed, despite surprising him with a takedown and some ground control in the first round, Edwards simply didn’t seem to have a lot for the champ as the fight went on.

As the clock ticked away, it seemed like he’d complete a routine defense.

That was, of course, until Edwards landed a perfectly placed head kick with just under a minute to go, switching Usman’s lights out instantly.

Why Bet on Kamaru Usman?

Given Usman had put together a run of 15 wins in a row, including five title defenses, a rematch was a no-brainer.

So can ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ regain his crown?

On the face of it, he should probably be able to pull it off. After all, when you take into account their first fight, Usman has dominated Edwards for almost seven of their eight rounds in the octagon.

And he was dominating the division for the longest time due to his discipline and strength.

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman Final Betting Analysis:

Edwards’ head kick wasn’t a lucky shot by any means – it was set up perfectly. Equally, though, it feels more likely that Usman could avoid a similar shot rather than ‘Rocky’ landing another.

In front of his home country fans, “Rocky” may well feel unstoppable. He knows that he’s capable of stopping Usman now, something that no other UFC star can claim.

However, there is the chance that Edwards’ confidence may turn into overconfidence. There’s a chance – a slim one admittedly – that he’s forgotten what a monster ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ actually is.

With all things considered, this could go either way, but it’s hard to overlook all the dominance Usman had before that knockout loss.

If he fights a little more carefully this time, he should be able to regain his crown.

UFC 286: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev

Why Bet on Justin Gaethje?

Justin Gaethje is 23-4 overall with all four of his losses happening against champions or interim champions – Eddie Alvarez, Dustin Poirier, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Charles Oliveira.

Gaethje himself used to be the interim champ of the UFC Lightweight division in 2020 after defeating Tony Ferguson by technical knockout. It was the last time he defeated someone by KO/TKO, which is his No. 1 preferred method of victory.

Nineteen of his 23 wins happened this way, while he also has one win by submission, and one by decision.

Why Bet on Rafael Fiziev?

Rafael Fiziev is 12-1 in his pro-MMA career. His only loss happened on his UFC debut when he lost by TKO to Magomed Mustafaev.

From there, he went on to win six straight fights, winning the Performance of the Night bonus for three of those. Further, he also won the Performance of the Night bonus on two occasions.

The Azerbaijani fighter is incredibly fun to watch, with some of his moves going viral on social media, the best example being his Matrix-style strike dodging.

His strike defense is decent, and he tends to land a lot of punches. Eight of his 12 wins happened by KO/TKO, while he also has one win by submission and two by decision.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Final Betting Analysis:

Both fighters throw a lot of strikes in every fight, meaning that it’s very unlikely we’ll see the full five rounds on Saturday.

We think one of the fighters is going to get too tired and the other one will take advantage of that. But who is it going to be?

We say Fiziev. Gaethje got the skills, as well as the experience to win this fight. Our prediction is a TKO win for The Highlight in round 5.

UFC 286: Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena

Why Bet on Gunnar Nelson?

The 34-year-old Icelandic fighter is an absolute genius on the floor. He’s a 3rd-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu who’s won the gold two times at the BJJ Pan American Championship.

His record in mixed martial arts is 18-5-1, with two-thirds of his wins happening by submission.

He’s been fighting in the UFC for more than a decade, but in the last couple of years, Nelson hasn’t been too successful. He did win his most recent fight – against Takashi Sato by unanimous decision – but before that, he was 1-3.

Why Bet on Bryan Barberena?

Bryan Barberena is the kind of fighter who never refuses a fight. He was offered to fight Nelson a month before UFC 286, and he gladly accepted. This may seem strange considering that the last time he fought was last December.

That’s when we saw him lose by submission to Rafael Dos Anjos in round 2 of a fight that saw Barberena get taken down four times.

Speaking of takedowns, Bam Bam tends to suffer a lot of them. In fact, in the five fights before the Dos Anjos fight, he got taken down 22 times in total.

Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena Final Betting Analysis:

Gunnar Nelson shouldn’t care much that his opponent isn’t Daniel Rodriguez.

Sure, in the first part of the camp, he was training for D-Rod, but the good news for him is that Barberena isn’t much different.

Both are brawlers who tend to hit a lot, but also get hit a lot. Most importantly for Nelson, both are very susceptible to takedowns.

Knowing all this, it’s clear that Nelson’s path to victory is going to be to take Barberena down and finish him with a submission.

We place our betting token on Nelson to find the finish.

UFC 286: Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill

Why Bet on Jennifer Maia?

Immediately after Maia’s title shot against Valentina Shevchenko, there was some interest in a rematch because the Brazilian was able to challenge “Bullet” more than most at the time.

Unfortunately, she’s been unable to produce consistent results since then, splitting four bouts evenly against top-ranked Flyweights.

A black belt in both Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai, Maia is well-rounded and strong for the division. She does a lot of her work at a close distance, from the clinch or top position where that physicality is most effective.

Why Bet on Casey O’Neill?

O’Neill is one of her division’s top prospects.

An undefeated finisher, the 25-year-old prospect has already won four straight inside the Octagon, but this will be her first fight back from a 2022 knee injury.

A jiu-jitsu brown belt, O’Neill has proven herself pretty skilled in all areas. She can put up major numbers on the feet, chain wrestle well, and tends to stay ahead in scrambles on the canvas.

Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill Final Betting Analysis:

A Muay Thai black belt against an opponent who shredded her knee less than a year ago? Kicking the legs early and often should be obvious.

Otherwise, O’Neill likes high-volume, scramble-filled fights. She’s young, confident, and aggressive.

Those are all good traits, but Maia can flip the script by slowing the fight down. If she’s able to wear on O’Neill and shut down those scrambles with heavy top pressure, she can use O’Neill’s style and inexperience against her by racking up control time.

O’Neill’s ability to safely advance position will be tested here. She’s not the type of fighter to just sit on guard endlessly, but O’Neill also has to make it a priority to keep Maia down.

Balancing aggression and control will be key, as she doesn’t want to give up an easy reversal or stand up when a more patient approach could still land her a submission.

UFC 286: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze

Why Bet on Marvin Vettori?

Marvin Vettori will be looking to rebound from his loss to Robert Whittaker.

Vettori was outclassed during the three-round fight, falling short in both the wrestling and striking exchanges.

Despite this, he’s an incredibly durable fighter who is very well-rounded. Vettori should be comfortable wherever this fight goes, and he’ll look to rebound to build a new winning streak in this contest.

Why Bet on Roman Dolidze?

Roman Dolidze is currently setting the Middleweight division alight. With performance bonuses in his last three fights over Kyle Daukaus, Phil Hawes, and Jack Hermansson, people have been joining the Dolidze hype train.

This bout will be just his sixth fight at Middleweight, a division in which he’s 4-1. His only loss at Middleweight came in his divisional debut to Trevin Giles.

Much like Vettori, Dolidze is an exceptionally well-rounded fighter who can succeed in both the standup and on the mat, and he’ll look to add Vettori to his winning streak to secure a top-5 ranking in this bout.

Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze Final Betting Analysis:

If we consider the physical attributes, the Georgian has a slight advantage. However, Vettori fights in a southpaw stance, which might cause some problems for Dolidze.

Vettori lands more punches per minute than Dolidze, while both have similar striking accuracy. However, the Georgian has better wrestling numbers with better takedown numbers, better takedown accuracy, and a better submission average.

Therefore, all these signs point towards a very close contest between two very well-rounded middleweights. But Despite Dolidze’s exciting style, we pin Marvin to win by decision.

He’s more experienced, having gone the distance with Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa, so we doubt that Dolidze breaks him.

UFC 286: Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani

Why Bet on Jack Shore?

Jack Shore (16-1) followed his successful Cage Warriors run with five consecutive Octagon victories.

This set up a pivotal clash with Ricky Simon, who clubbed and subbed the Welshman to send him from 135 to 145 pounds.

Why Bet on Makwan Amirkhani?

“Mr. Finland” battled his way to a 6-2 UFC start highlighted by post-fight bonuses for his finishes of Andy Ogle and Chris Fishgold.

He’s since dropped four of five, most recently suffering a ground-and-pound stoppage loss to Jonathan Pearce in London.

All but one of his 13 professional finishes have come via submission.

Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani Final Betting Analysis:

Shore has everything he needs to take Amirkhani apart: strong takedown defense, a quality engine, and good hands.

All signs point to a repeat of Amirkhani’s loss to Pearce, which saw Amirkhani find early success with his powerful wrestling before crumbling under “JSP’s” pace.

The extra 10 pounds are a concern, especially against someone with such a physical style, but Shore’s grappling fundamentals are stout enough to weather Amirkhani’s early onslaught until “Mr. Finland’s” legendarily poor gas tank gives out.

Sprawl-and-brawl turns into sprawl-and-maul as Shore survives a rough start to batter Amirkhani into submission.

UFC 286: Chris Duncan vs. Omar Morales

Why Bet on Chris Duncan?

Chris Duncan’s (9-1) first Contender Series bid ended in disaster thanks to a vicious left hook from Viacheslav Borshchev.

His second a year later looked similarly doomed, but “The Problem” came back to knock Charlie Campbell stiff and walk away with a UFC contract.

Seven of his eight professional stoppage wins came via knockout.

Why Bet on Omar Morales?

Omar Morales (11-3) went from upsetting Harvey Park on Contender Series to defeating Dong Hyun Ma and Gabriel Benitez in his first two Octagon appearances. The momentum wasn’t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday amid a 1-3 skid.

The Venezuelan Fighter steps in for Michal Figlak on little more than one month’s notice.

Chris Duncan vs. Omar Morales Final Betting Analysis:

The hits Duncan absorbed against Borshchev and Campbell weren’t flukes; he has some serious defensive liabilities and is just slow in general.

Odds are he won’t make too dramatic a rise through the ranks before hitting his ceiling, but he should at least be a bit too much for Morales. Omar, who never quite managed to live up to the potential he showed against Park, figures to give Duncan the sort of gritty kickboxing match where “The Problem’s” power and offensive craft shine.

Duncan’s shown enough vulnerability that a dialed-in Morales has a shot at out-technique him for a decision win.

More likely, though, Duncan’s aggression and output carry him to either a decision or a late stoppage if Morales’ chin is still feeling the effects of that Uros Medic fight.

UFC 286: Sam Patterson vs. Yanal Ashmoz

Why Bet on Sam Patterson?

An almost-perfect (5-0-1) run in Brave CF earned Patterson a Contender Series berth in 2022.

Though he suffered an early knockdown against Vinicius Cenci, a second-round-rear naked choke earned “The Future” both a win and a UFC contract.

His nine professional finishes include five submissions, three of which came via guillotine.

Why Bet on Yanal Ashmoz?

Yanal Ashmoz (6-0) racked up three quick wins in 2017 before spending nearly four years on the sidelines.

He shook off the rust with a pair of (T)KO finishes in 2021, then defeated Dennis Hughes in an unsuccessful bid to join the 2022 PFL season.

Sam Patterson vs. Yanal Ashmoz Final Betting Analysis:

This seems like a case where Ashmoz has the right style to give Patterson issues, but can’t execute it well enough to get the win.

Though not quite Stefan Struvian in his inability to maximize his height and reach, Patterson regularly allows shorter men to find striking and wrestling success against him, which plays into Ashmoz’s hands.

Ashmoz just isn’t technical enough with his brawling or sufficiently overpowering with his takedowns to make the most of those opportunities, especially when Patterson has the gas tank to consistently get out of tight spots and deliver consistent offense.

Even if Ashmoz can get inside Patterson’s rangy kickboxing, he has Patterson’s counters to deal with on the feet and his guillotine to deal with on the mat.

Odds are that Ashmoz gets a little too eager to drag Patterson to the ground and exposes his neck to those Slenderman arms.

UFC 286: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho

Why Bet on Muhammad Mokaev?

After building up hype with a 23-0 amateur career and strong professional start, Muhammad Mokaev (9-0) announced his arrival on the world stage with a 58-second submission of Cody Durden in his UFC debut.

His perfect record remained intact courtesy of wins over Charles Johnson and Malcolm Gordon, the latter of which netted “The Punisher” his fourth professional submission win.

Why Bet on Jafel Filho?

Jafel Filho entered the Contender Series on the heels of four straight stoppage wins, one of them over future Contender Series graduate, Vinicius Salvador.

“Pastor” ultimately made it five with a left hook knockout of Robert Echeverria that snapped the latter’s unbeaten record and punched Filho’s ticket to UFC.

All of his wins save his second have come inside the distance, eight of them via submission.

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho Final Betting Analysis:

No matter what they bring to the table in terms of offense, Mokaev’s opponents all face one simple challenge: can they stop Mokaev from controlling them for 15 minutes?

For Filho, the answer is no; he’s a potent submission artist and chain wrestler with sneaky power in his hands, but he hasn’t shown anything to suggest that he can avoid the grinding fate that befell Johnson and Gordon.

Though Filho can finish out of nowhere, Mokaev’s disinclination to take unnecessary risks means that “Pastor’s” opportunities to find his neck or chin will be few and far between.

As much as I’d like to see Mokaev make the effort to put on a dominant performance, odds are he neutralizes Filho against the fence for another comfortable decision win.

UFC 286: Lerone Murphy vs. Gabriel Santos

Why Bet on Lerone Murphy?

Lerone Murphy (11-0-1 ) defied the odds and a disastrous start to force Zubaira Tukhugov to a draw in his UFC debut.

Subsequent efforts proved more decisive, and he enters the cage this Saturday amid a three-fight winning streak.

“The Miracle” fights for the first time in 17.5 months.

Why Bet on Gabriel Santos?

Gabriel Santos’ (10-0) run on the Brazilian circuit culminated in a decision over Elvis Silva to win the Future MMA Featherweight title.

He then took his talent to LFA, knocking out Marcio Barbosa in his debut before claiming its Featherweight title with a third-round finish of Jose Delano.

He steps in for the gruesomely injured Nathaniel Wood on just over a week’s notice.

Lerone Murphy vs. Gabriel Santos Final Betting Analysis:

This is just a question of how much the layoff took out of Murphy.

If he’s firing on all cylinders, it’s his fight to lose; he’s a faster and more dynamic striker than Santos, who lacks the wrestling to overpower Murphy on the mat the way Tukhugov and Makwan Amirkhani did.

What Santos does have, however, is impressive grit and pressure that could give “The Miracle” hell if too much rust piled up.

Murphy’s just too athletic and destructive for Santos’ decent-but-unspectacular offense to overcome. He’ll find the finish before the third.

UFC 286: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Duško Todorović

Why Bet on Christian Leroy Duncan?

Christian Leroy Duncan (7-0) put together a four-year, 17-6 amateur career before turning professional in 2020.

He’s since fought exclusively in Cage Warriors, ultimately knocking out Djati Melan for its Middleweight title in April 2022 and defending it against Marian Dimitrov seven months later.

His five professional knockouts include two via spinning techniques and one via flying knee.

Why Bet on Duško Todorović?

After knocking out Michel Pereira, Dusko Todorovic (12-3) capped off a perfect (9-0) professional start by grinding out Teddy Ash on Contender Series.

He currently sits at 3-3 in the Octagon, most recently stopping Jordan Wright in their Oct. 2022 “Fight of the Night.”

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Duško Todorović Final Betting Analysis:

On paper, Todorovic’s grueling slog is a decent counter to Duncan’s free-flowing style, which leaves plenty of openings for “Thunder” to get in on his hips and take the Englishman’s athleticism out of the equation.

In practice, I’m not convinced; Todorovic went 0-for-4 on takedowns against a notoriously poor grappler in Wright, and though Duncan did have some early issues with Melan’s takedowns, his power, and dynamism ultimately won out.

We just don’t trust Todorovic to not get overwhelmed by Duncan’s offbeat offense before he can get some proper attrition going.

Duncan clips him with a flying and/or spinning attack late in the first.

UFC 286: Jake Hadley vs. Malcolm Gordon

Why Bet on Jake Hadley?

Despite missing weight on Contender Series and reportedly butting heads with the staff, Jake Hadley’s (9-1) rear-naked choke finish of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran, Mitch Raposo, earned him a UFC contract.

Though he fell to the resurgent Allan Nascimento in his Octagon debut, he returned to the win column six months later by choking out Carlos Candelario.

His pro finishes are split 5/2 between submissions and knockouts.

Why Bet on Malcolm Gordon?

Malcolm Gordon (14-6) rebounded from two straight Octagon defeats with sizable upsets of Francisco Figueiredo and Denys Bondar.

Then came top prospect, Muhammad Mokaev, who handed Gordon his second career submission defeat.

Jake Hadley vs. Malcolm Gordon Final Betting Analysis:

This one comes down to whether Hadley can stay composed. He figures to have the edge in boxing and offensive wrestling, but Gordon has more than proven his ability to turn a single slip-up into disaster.

If Hadley leaves himself open to a reactive takedown or gets lazy from the top, he’s in for a rough night.

After that learning experience against Nascimento, we are willing to give “White Kong” the benefit of the doubt.

So long as he doesn’t get overeager, he should outwork Gordon on the feet for a wide decision.

UFC 286: Joanne Wood vs. Luana Carolina

Why Bet on Joanne Wood?

After more than half a decade in the Octagon, a 4-1 run capped by a split decision over Andrea Lee put Joanne Wood (15-8) on the brink of a title shot.

She’s just 1-4 since, including consecutive rear-naked choke losses in her last two bouts.

Five of her six stoppage wins have come by (T)KO.

Why Bet on Luana Carolina?

Luana Carolina (8-3), an early Contender Series graduate, began her UFC tenure with a unanimous decision over Priscila Cachoeira.

Her Octagon record has since evened out at 3-2, wins over Poliana Botelho and Lupita Godinez sandwiched between stoppage losses to Ariane Lipski and Molly McCann.

Joanne Wood vs. Luana Carolina Final Betting Analysis:

The question here is whether Wood is done as a top Flyweight or as a fighter in general.

As ugly as her recent record is, none of those losses came against poor opposition; the worst was that questionable decision over Lauren Murphy, whom I’d still rate well above Carolina.

Considering Carolina’s performance against Molly McCann, I’d say Wood still has enough left in the tank to get past her.

“Meatball’s” consistent ability to both land on Carolina and hit takedowns despite the height and reach difference suggests that the much more technically adept Wood can do the same.

If “Jojo” can still pull the trigger, she should cruise to victory with combination striking and top control.

UFC 286: Jai Herbert vs. Ľudovít Klein

Why Bet on Jai Herbert?

Jai Herbert (12-4) finished his Cage Warriors tenure with four straight knockout wins, only to suffer stoppage losses to Francisco Trinaldo and Renato Moicano in his first two Octagon bouts.

He’s since rebounded with a 2-1 run, a comeback knockout loss to Ilia Topuria sandwiched between losses to Khama Worthy and Kyle Nelson.

He’s knocked out nine pro opponents and submitted one other.

Why Bet on Ľudovít Klein?

Though he started his UFC run strong with a 76-second knockout of Shane Young, consecutive losses to Mike Trizano and Nate Landwehr sent Ludovit Klein (19-4) from Featherweight to Lightweight.

The move has paid dividends, as he went on to win decisions over Devonte Smith and Mason Jones.

Jai Herbert vs. Ľudovít Klein Final Betting Analysis:

Klein’s last two Featherweight bouts revealed a distinct allergy to pressure, especially if wrestling is involved.

Luckily for him, that shouldn’t be an issue here. He’s up against another long-range striking specialist, and with free rein to use his fearsome kicks, Herbert’s in for a rough time against a technically superior kickboxer.

Though Herbert’s height and reach do pose a threat, he failed to consistently keep shorter men in Trinaldo and Topuria off of him, while Klein is no stranger to being the smaller fighter.

Add that to Herbert’s historical durability issues and you’ve got the ingredients for “Mr. Highlight” to live up to his name.

UFC 286: Veronica Hardy vs. Juliana Miller

Why Bet on Veronica Hardy?

Veronica Hardy (6-4-1) finally broke out of a three-fight UFC skid by tapping Polyana Viana with a 69-second bonus-winning armbar of Polyana Viana.

She then moved up to 135 to fight Bea Malecki, turning in an admirable effort but ultimately falling to her much larger foe.

She fights for the first time in almost exactly three years.

Why Bet on Juliana Miller?

A 2-1 pro start and impressive grappling résumé sent Juliana Miller (3-1) to TUF 30, where she beat Claire Guthrie and Kaytlin Neal to earn a spot on the Finale.

There, she pounded out Brogan Walker to finish off Team Nunes and claim tournament victory.

Two of her three finishes have come in the first round.

Veronica Hardy vs. Juliana Miller Final Betting Analysis:

Unless Hardy has fundamentally reinvented herself as a fighter during her time away, she’s short on options.

She’s long struggled with determined takedown artists and lacks the power to decisively punish Miller’s awkward standup.

Miller’s jiu-jitsu pedigree means Hardy can’t rely on a repeat of the Viana reversal.

While Miller’s unlikely to make a dent in the increasingly competitive Flyweight elite due to her striking issues, she’s got more than enough tools in her arsenal to overwhelm the historically underwhelming Hardy. Long stretches of top control secure her second UFC victory.