Key matchups and best bets for Super Bowl LIX

Super Bowl LIX features a series of fascinating matchups that could translate into one of those games that become instant classics.

A couple of years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35, thanks to a 27-yard Harrison Butker field goal with eight seconds left in the game.

Patrick Mahomes threw a pair of touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and, despite dealing with an ankle injury, ran 26 yards on a key play in the series to win the game.

Below, we review some of the matchups to watch this Sunday and the recommendation to play in Gambyl.

WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL

Key matchups:

RB Saquon Barkley vs. the Chiefs front 7

Philadelphia will go as far as Saquon Barkley takes it. The problem is that under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs have not allowed a running back to break the 100-yard rushing barrier in 18 consecutive postseason games.

Barkley, however, may be the one to break that impressive streak for the Kansas City defense. Saquon has 442 yards in three playoff games, averaging 6.7 yards per attempt and touchdown runs of 62, 78 and 60 yards.

If Barkley rushes for 100 or more yards, Philadelphia will have accomplished the main objective of this game and will be in a good place to beat the Chiefs.

Best Bet: Will Saquon Barkley rush for 250-plus yards in regulation during Super Bowl 59?

No (-125)

WR A.J. Brown vs CB Trent McDuffie

If the Chiefs can contain Barkley or force the Eagles to abandon the run at some point in the game, then quarterback Jalen Hurts is going to need his receivers to make the big plays in this Super Bowl.

In three playoff games, A.J. Brown has 120 yards, but 96 of those were against Washington in the NFC Championship. His only touchdown in these playoffs also came against the Commanders.

Brown will have to deal with cornerback Trent McDuffie, who in two postseason games has been challenged 12 times; he allowed seven receptions and 116 yards, with no touchdowns.

In the Super Bowl two years ago, Brown finished with six receptions, 96 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs.

Best Bet: A.J. Brown’s Receiving Yards Total (Eagles) Under 73.5 (-112)

TE Dallas Goedert vs. LBs Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal

Goedert has been Hurts’ favorite objective in the playoffs, with 18 targets, 15 receptions, 188 yards (12.1 per reception) and a touchdown.

In two postseason games, opposing tight ends have caught just eight passes against the Kansas City defense, for 85 yards, with no touchdowns.

In Super Bowl LVII, Goedert caught six balls for 60 yards (including a 17-yard reception), with no touchdown. With a similar performance, the Chiefs will be more than satisfied this Sunday.

Best Bet: Dallas Goedert (Eagles) Receiving Yards Total Under 54.5 (-118)

WR DeVonta Smith vs. CB Jaylen Watson

If Brown can’t break away from McDuffie, then Hurts will look to Smith, who is currently second on Philadelphia in the playoffs with 12 receptions and 121 yards.

Watson has been targeted just five times this postseason; he gave up two catches (40%) for 17 yards and no touchdowns, which translates to a 49.6 rating.

Best Bet: DeVonta Smith (Eagles) Receiving Yards Total Under 53.5 (-118)

WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL

Key Matchups:

QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Vic Fangio

Mahomes is 8-0 against Vic Fangio, who was the Denver Broncos’ head coach for three years and is now the defensive coordinator in Philadelphia.

In the Super Bowl a couple of seasons ago against the Eagles, Mahomes was 21-of-27 for 182 yards, with three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 131.8 rating, the highest in his four NFL title game appearances.

Barring a surprise with something off-script, Fangio will pressure Mahomes with just four defenders and play zone defense behind him.

If Fangio gets desperate and decides to use extra defenders to pressure the Chiefs’ star quarterback, the Eagles will be in trouble.

Mahomes has only been sacked at a mere 5.1 percent rate against the blitz, which, interestingly, is lower than the rate when teams rush him with four or fewer players (6.4 percent).

Best Bet: Will Patrick Mahomes pass for 240-plus yards in Super Bowl 59? Yes (+1300)

OT Joe Thuney vs. DE Milton Williams

Desperate to find a solution at left tackle, coach Andy Reid moved guard Thuney around and made him Mahomes’ bodyguard. The experiment paid off, as Thuney has given up just one quarterback sack in two postseason games.

Though he has just one sack in three playoff games, Williams has generated nine hurries, and for Fangio that might be enough against the NFL’s best quarterback.

Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes’ Rushing Yards Over 30.5 (-118)

TE Travis Kelce vs. Eagles’ Zone Defense

Kelce is an expert at finding gaps in zone defenses, and Philadelphia can’t let the tight end change the game with one explosive play.

Kelce tore up the Texans in the Divisional Round with seven catches for 117 yards (including a 49-yarder) and a touchdown.

A week later in the AFC Championship Game, the Bills held Kelce to two catches and 19 yards. In Super Bowl LVII, the star tight end led the Chiefs in receiving with six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia.

Best Bet: Travis Kelce (Chiefs) Receiving Yards Total Over 63.5 (-118)

WR Xavier Worthy vs. CBs Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell

Rookie Worthy is the speedster in the Chiefs’ receiving corps and is Mahomes’ most targeted guy in these playoffs, with 11 catches, 130 yards and a touchdown.

Slay is the Eagles’ top corner and will likely be physical off the line of scrimmage with the rookie. In three postseason games, Slay has been targeted 28 times; he gave up 16 receptions (56.1%) for 214 yards and a touchdown.

Mitchell is a rookie who will surely be tested by Mahomes. In these playoffs he has allowed an

87.2 rating and given up three touchdowns on 75 targets. Best Bet: Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) Receiving Yards Total Under 57.5 (-118).

Be ready for the 2024 NFL football season with our NFL Betting Guide and follow every NFL football game with our printable NFL schedule; available for download as a spreadsheet, Google Sheet for the entire season or get every week from Week 1 through Week 18 with free picks.