When Browns defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson fell on Patrick Mahomes’ ankle, many hearts stopped, including that of Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid.
Mahomes limped to the Chiefs’ bench and was relieved by veteran Carson Wentz in Kansas City’s win over Cleveland.
At the press conference, Mahomes said he would have continued in the game if it had been closer.
It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs without Mahomes, as Kansas City has played in four Super Bowls (LIV, LV, LVII and LVIII) and won three NFL titles in a span of five seasons. In fact, the Chiefs are looking to make history in February 2025 as the only team in NFL mythology with three consecutive Super Bowl wins.
To do that, though, they’ll need the best version of Mahomes, and we haven’t seen that yet after the first 15 weeks of the regular season.
A bellow par season so far
Behind a patched-up offensive line and dealing with injuries to some of his best players, Mahomes is far from the top five in the major categories that rate the best quarterbacks in the NFL: he’s 14th in completion percentage (66.7); 10th in yards (3,348); ninth in touchdown passes (22); 22nd in interceptions (11) and 16th in rating (91.0).
Far, far from what we’re used to seeing from the league’s best passer.
Tests conducted on Monday confirmed that Mahomes suffered a high sprained ankle, according to multiple reports, but it’s almost a given that he’ll play Saturday against the Houston Texans, in the Chiefs’ final home game of the regular season.
But for Kansas City to have a realistic shot at a three-peat, Mahomes will have to find his Superman cape and leave Clark Kent at home.
Throwing the ball faster could be a good start. Mahomes gets rid of the ball in an average of 2.82 seconds, which ranks 25th this season. Without an offensive line capable of giving him enough time in the pocket, Mahomes has been sacked 35 times, ninth most in the league.
The problems come particularly at left tackle, where the Chiefs have used three players: Wanya Morris, Kingsley Suamataia and most recently D.J. Humphries, signed by Kansas City a couple of weeks ago.
It’s true that Mahomes has the best tight end in the NFL in Travis Kelce, but opponents have found ways to contain him, and that means the receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeAndre Hopkins and rookie Xavier Worthy) have to step up.
The return of Isiah Pacheco to the backfield could take the pressure off Mahomes, and as long as the Chiefs can establish the running game, Reid will have no problem keeping his star quarterback giving the ball to his running backs and letting his defense do the rest.
A team with many tools
Because yes, Kansas City still has one of the best defenses in the league, one that ranks fifth in allowing an average of 18.5 points per game.
There are those who believe the Chiefs’ 13-1 record is misleading and that they’ve gotten lucky in some games they should have lost. Kansas City is 11-0 in games decided by 7 points or less, and its only loss of the season was at Buffalo, 31-20.
Mahomes, who has four straight games without an interception, has nine touchdown passes and one interception, with a 115.5 rating in three games against the Texans, with at least two TDs in each of those games.
Including playoffs, Kansas City has won five of the last seven against the Texans, who, by the way, defeated the Chiefs in their last visit to Arrowhead (31-24, in 2019) in the regular season. Injured or not, I remind you that it is not a good idea to bet against Mahomes, so…
Pick: Chiefs 23-18 Texans Top picks for Week 16:
Broncos @ Chargers | Under 41.5 |
Texans @ Chiefs | Under 41.5 |
Steelers @ Ravens | Pittsburgh +6.5 |
Browns @ Bengals | Over 46.5 |
Giants @ Falcons | Atlanta -8.5 |
Lions @ Bears | Detroit -6.5 |
Titans @ Colts | Indianapolis -3.5 |
Cardinals @ Panthers | Arizona -5 |
Eagles @ Commanders | Over 45.5 |
Rams @ Jets | Los Angeles -3 |
Vikings @ Seahawks | Over 43.5 |
Patriots @ Bills | Over 46.5 |
Jaguars @ Raiders | Las Vegas -1.5 |
49ers @ Dolphins | Over 44.5 |
Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Tampa Bay -4 |
Saints @ Packers | Over 42.5 |
Be ready for the 2024 NFL football season with our NFL Betting Guide and follow every NFL football game with our printable NFL schedule; available for download as a spreadsheet, Google Sheet for the entire season or get every week from Week 1 through Week 18 with free picks.
-
Iván Pirrón: Author
Sports journalist with more than 30 years of experience in television, radio, print and digital media. NFL columnist and analyst since 2002. A die-hard lover of British rock and the mod movement, his role model is Paul Weller. He has been a reporter at Grupo Radio Centro, sports co-editor at Reforma newspaper, coordinator of Todo Menos Futbol and deputy director at Récord, information coordinator at Televisa Deportes and Press Director at the Mexican Tennis Federation. He is a professor in the Digital Journalism Diploma at the Carlos Septién GarcÃa School of Journalism, where he teaches the Podcast module. Oh, and in 2010 he played a chess match against none other than the legendary Russian Anatoly Yevgenevich Karvop, better known as Anatoly Karpov (he lost it, by the way).
View all posts Sports Betting Expert