Underdogs are the trend in the Super Bowl

In January 1969, three days before Super Bowl III in Miami, New York Jets quarterback Joe Namath made the most controversial statement in the history of what is now the biggest sporting event in American sports.

“We’re going to win Sunday, I guarantee it”, Namath told a handful of reporters.

It sounded like nonsense. The Jets were 18-point underdogs (the largest spread in Super Bowl history) against the Baltimore Colts, but Namath kept his word.

He completed 17 of 28 passes for 206 yards and the Jets defense intercepted Earl Morrall three times in the first half, leading New York to a 16-7 victory over the Colts.

Baltimore, which had lost just one game all season, allowed 337 total yards, including 121 rushing yards by Matt Snell, who scored the Jets’ only touchdown on a four-yard run.

That was the first major upset in Super Bowl history.

Underdogs have history

Favorite teams are 37-20 in the Super Bowl and 28-25-2 against the spread. Super Bowl XLIX, between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, is the only one in history that did not have a favorite in the betting.

Between the 2002 and 2008 seasons, there were two other major Super Bowl upsets.

First it was the New England Patriots, 14-point underdogs to the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI.

Adam Vinatieri’s 48-yard field goal as time expired gave the Patriots a dramatic 20-17 win in New Orleans. The Rams outgained New England 427-267 in total yards, but the Patriots forced three turnovers and converted them into 17 points, giving Bill Belichick and Tom Brady the first of six Super Bowls they won together.

Six years later, in Super Bowl XLII, the New York Giants were 14-point underdogs to Brady and the Patriots.

Eli Manning connected on a 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress with 35 seconds left in the game and the Giants ended the Patriots’ dream of a perfect season.

The Giants won their first Super Bowl in 17 years, as the Patriots joined the 1934 and 1942 Chicago Bears as the only teams to go undefeated in the regular season but lose the championship game.

The Chiefs did it, too

A year after Namath’s statement, the Kansas City Chiefs were considered 12-point underdogs in Super Bowl IV against the Minnesota Vikings.

The game didn’t go as expected in the casinos as the Chiefs went into halftime with a 16-0 lead thanks to the excellent performance of quarterback Len Dawson and a great defense. Dawson, the fourth consecutive quarterback to be named Super Bowl MVP, completed 12 of 17 and connected with Otis Taylor on a 46-yard touchdown that sealed the Chiefs’ victory.

Kansas City’s defense limited Minnesota’s strong ground game to 67 yards and had three interceptions and two fumble recoveries.

Over/Under?

A total of 29 times the over was covered in the Super Bowl, compared to 28 times the under. No point total was posted in Super Bowl I between the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Recent history

Counting against the spread, the last four Super Bowls have been “won” by the underdog. In the case of the Over/Under, in the most recent 10 years, they are tied at 5-5.

The Kansas City Chiefs have won three Super Bowls in a five-year span and in those wins the balance was Favorite-Under (53); Underdog-Over (51.5) and Underdog-Over (46.5).

In the most recent two, the Chiefs were underdogs and for this Super Bowl LIX they start as 1.5-point favorites.

Next week I will analyze the most important personal matchups in Super Bowl LIX and make some suggestions for your special props.

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