UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland – Betting Odds and Fight Card Picks

Last Updated on December 1, 2022 9:45 pm by Erwin Noguera

The first UFC event for December is an exciting Fight Night that will be taking place in the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

This fight night will have not only an excellent main card with multiple exciting matchups, but the whole card, starting from the prelims, will have a ton of talented fighters coming in to showcase their skills in the most famous octagon in the world.

The event is headlined by Stephen “wonderboy” Thompson and Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland in a Welterweight bout.

The co-main event sees the former champion Rafael Dos Anjos as he faces Bryan Barberena.

The main card also sees Tai Tuivasa as he faces Sergei Pavlovich on the path to another possible “Shoey” celebration.

And a set of prelims including names like Angela Hill, Kyle Daukaus, Clay Guida, Michael Johnson, Darren Elkins, Tracy Cortez, and Marcelo Rojo, to keep the fight fans excited from start to end.

This is an extended event with 15 fights in total, divided into 9 prelim fights and 6 main event bouts.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

UFC Fight Night – Thompson vs. Holland – Betting Odds and Free Picks – Info

When: Saturday, December 3rd, at 7:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Stephen Thompson +136 / Kevin Holland -175

Rafael dos Anjos -625 / Bryan Barberena +402

Matheus Nicolau -400 / Matt Schnell +286

Tai Tuivasa +168 / Sergei Pavlovich -222

Jack Hermansson -192 / Roman Dolidze +149

Eryk Anders +169 / Kyle Daukaus -222

Niko Price -138 / Philip Rowe +108

Angela Hill -102 / Emily Ducote -125

Clay Guida +136 / Scott Holtzman -175

Michael Johnson +237 / Marc Diakiese -322

Darren Elkins +361 / Jonathan Pearce -526

Tracy Cortez -106 / Amanda Ribas -119

Natan Levy -212 / Genaro Valdéz +162

Francis Marshall -172 / Marcelo Rojo +134

Yazmin Jauregui -333 / Istela Nunes +243

Where Can I Watch It?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night – Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland

Why Bet on Stephen Thompson

Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson enters as the No. 6-ranked welterweight contender despite coming off back-to-back losses.

Thompson was controlled on the ground by Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns in those defeats, but when he can stay on his feet, he’s a dangerous fighter that has compiled an 11-6-1 record in the octagon.

The 39-year-old has twice fought for the Welterweight title, drawing with Tyrone Woodley in 2016 and losing by a decision the following year.

Why Bet on Kevin Holland

Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland is coming off a loss to Khamzhat Chimaev in September.

He accepted that catchweight matchup on short notice and was destroyed in the first round.

Holland has been one of the most active UFC fighters since the start of the pandemic, with 10 fights over the last 30 months.

He has six wins, three losses, and one no-contest during that span.

Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland Final Betting Analysis:

Thompson is likely a bit more polished in his kickboxing and has more impressive wins on his resume, but he’s almost 40 and has just two victories in the last four years.

Kevin Holland poses a different challenge than those two because he is much bigger and faster, while Neal and Luque are plodders who slowly circled Thompson while trying to land with their hands as he picked them apart at range.

With a massive six-inch reach advantage on Wonderboy, Holland is also comfortable throwing kicks and fighting at distance.

Holland also has more knockout power than Wonderboy, which means he might also be able to catch Thompson when he keeps his hands low (a technique he uses to hide the delivery of his strikes).

UFC Fight Night – Rafael dos Anjos vs. Bryan Barberena

Why Bet on Rafael dos Anjos

Dos Anjos’ last loss changed everything.

The former Lightweight kingpin was hoping for a final run at gold, but his back-and-forth battle with Rafael Fiziev ended in a rare knockout loss for the Brazilian.

Given that defeat, he’s relocated back to Welterweight, doing away with brutal weight cuts and title aspirations alike.

Why Bet on Bryan Barberena

Barberena has taken up a unique role at Welterweight, a consistently fun foil for fellow scrappy veterans and former champions alike.

A Barberena title run isn’t likely either, but “Fight of the Night”-type action is promised.

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Bryan Barberena Final Betting Analysis:

There is an adage in combat sports: brawl the boxer, box the brawler. In this match-up, dos Anjos is aiming to do the latter. He’s not physically outsized and probably hits about as hard as Barberena, but that doesn’t mean he should be looking to slug it out.

Dos Anjos is the more skilled man, and if he brings all those skills into the Octagon, he should be able to win cleanly.

Against the fellow Southpaw, dos Anjos’ calf kicks should be a huge weapon, especially since Barberena likes to plant his feet and trade.

“RDA” also has the option to trade with Barberena just enough to get his feet set and then change levels into a takedown.

If dos Anjos makes good use of his kicks, boxing, and takedowns, he should remain a step ahead of Barberena.

UFC Fight Night – Matheus Nicolau vs. Matt Schnell

Why Bet on Matheus Nicolau

Like so many other Flyweights, Nicolau never should have been released in 2019.

The Brazilian is extremely technical in all areas, and he is a legitimate finishing threat as well.

The 29-year-old is generally just very good, and he’s built up a 6-1 record inside the Octagon.

Why Bet on Matt Schnell

Schnell is well-rounded also, but he tends to be more extreme in his strengths and weaknesses.

Schnell is likely the heavier hitter and more aggressive submission threat.

However, he’s also getting knocked down and strangled far more often than Nicolau — his aggression is a double-sided sword to be sure.

Matheus Nicolau vs. Matt Schnell Final Betting Analysis:

Over the years, Nicolau has always stood out as a theoretical foe to be avoided, an elite level of opposition without the acclaim of more established names.

The Brazilian is just so polished.

His kickboxing is very solid, his takedowns are slick, and his grappling is top-notch.

Schnell could theoretically catch him with a big shot or sudden triangle, but barring a quick turn of events, Nicolau simply appears to be the better fighter, destined for the title mix.

UFC Fight Night – Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich

Why Bet on Tai Tuivasa

Tuivasa is a deceptively quick and powerful slugger.

There’s a fair bit of craft to the Aussie’s layered offense: his elbows in the clinch, powerful low kicks, and counter-punching all separate him from the average big banger.

Still, Tuivasa’s toughness and massive punching power remain his greatest attributes.

Why Bet on Sergei Pavlovich

It is hard to explain exactly what makes Sergei Pavlovich so dangerous.

When he keeps knocking out his UFC opposition in a minute or two, however, it’s tough to make reads beyond recognizing his enormous power!

The Russian is a tank, a big man for the division unafraid to put together compact combinations of heavy punches.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich Final Betting Analysis:

Both men can send the other to the canvas in a senseless heap too easily. Tuivasa’s recent knockout loss is a major question mark as well.

He took a ton of damage against Gane, and he’s already prepared to throw down with a truly nasty up-and-comer?

It is hard to be confident placing a bet here, but Tuivasa has knocked out better opponents and been in there with the division’s best, so that gives him a slight edge.

UFC Fight Night – Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze

Why Bet on Jack Hermansson

Hermansson is a very established contender at 185 pounds. Though a title shot continues to elude him, he’s repeatedly proven himself a remarkably tough out.

Hermansson is at his best from the top position, where he’s a very effective finisher with submissions and strikes alike.

Why Bet on Roman Dolidze

Dolidze has looked wildly dangerous in his last couple of trips to the Octagon.

Since dropping down to Middleweight, his power has been more consistent, and the accomplished grappler remains a real threat on the floor.

Everything seems to be clicking for the Georgian, who now rides quite a bit of momentum into this short-notice opportunity.

Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze Final Betting Analysis:

This is a classic case of consistency vs. danger.

Hermansson is the more consistent round winner of the two.

His jab is effective, and his stand-up style may be a touch awkward, but he does well to control the flow of fights nevertheless.

His wrestling is always a threat, and Hermansson never slows down.

Dolidze isn’t quite as good at winning minute-to-minute exchanges.

He’s prone to dropping his activity or sacrificing position for submission attempts on the canvas.

However, he’s also shredding knees and knocking people out quickly, and we cannot say the same for Hermansson.

Fortunately for the Swede, he’s durable and knows his way around a leglock too.

Even if Dolidze starts strong, the chances of Hermansson jabbing him up or finding a top position and shifting momentum are rather strong.

UFC Fight Night – Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus

Why Bet on Eryk Anders

Most of Anders’ best wins have come against much easier opposition, so the 35-year-old American could struggle against someone like Daukaus.

He hasn’t won since beating Darren Stewart last year, which isn’t an excellent form guide and that could be evident when he hits the Octagon on Saturday.

Why Bet on Kyle Daukaus

Daukaus was considered one of the more promising middleweights, but after two losses in his last three fights, he needs to improve.

The Philadelphia native lost to Dolidze in June, which followed a submission win over Jamie Pickett.

However, before that, he was beaten by Phil Hawkes and he needs to improve on those performances.

Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus Final Betting Analysis:

We struggle to see how Anders gets close enough to do damage on Daukaus, as he is quite the better striker in this contest.

There is more promise with Daukaus, who wouldn’t have enjoyed being knocked out and he’s out for revenge to get to the top.

Our pick is for Daukaus to get the unanimous decision.

UFC Fight Night – Niko Price vs. Philip Rowe

Why Bet on Niko Price

After obliterating James Vick with an up kick less than two minutes into their fight, Niko Price (15-5) stumbled his way through a three-fight winless streak.

He ultimately got back on track in Oct. 2021, defeating fellow finisher, Alex Oliveira, in Orlando.

This marks his first fight in 14 months.

Why Bet on Philip Rowe

Phil Rowe (9-3) smashed Leon Shahbazyan to earn a spot in the Octagon, only to drop a decision to Gabe Green in his UFC debut.

“The Fresh Prince” has since found his footing with consecutive knockouts of Orion Cosce and Jason Witt.

All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, five of them via knockout.

Niko Price vs. Philip Rowe Final Betting Analysis:

I get the feeling we’re in for another round of Niko Price Shenanigans, the sort that saw him stop two people from his back and knock Tim Means into another dimension after getting out-classed for most of the round.

Even if that magic isn’t there, he should be too much for Rowe, whose “get out-classed by a limited fighter for a while before a dramatic comeback” approach bodes ill against a finisher of this caliber.

Rowe definitely could smash Price with a million-punch combination as before, but Price’s toughness and power make Rowe’s usual slow start a death sentence.

In the end, Price smashes Rowe before the latter can get into gear, potentially in dramatic fashion.

UFC Fight Night – Angela Hill vs. Emily Ducote

Why Bet on Angela Hill

The UFC career-long, three-fight win streak for Angela Hill (14-12) gave way to a 1-5 skid, three of those defeats coming via split decision.

With her back against the wall, she survived an early onslaught to upset Lupita Godinez in Aug. 2022.

Why Bet on Emily Ducote

Emily Ducote (12-6) knocked out Danielle Taylor to earn Invicta FC’s Strawweight title, which she subsequently defended with a (technical) knockout finish of Alesha Zappitella.

She then stepped up on short notice to face Jessica Penne in the Octagon, out-striking her fellow former titlist to claim a unanimous decision win.

Her professional finishes are split 4/3 between submissions and knockouts.

Angela Hill vs. Emily Ducote Final Betting Analysis:

Ugly though her recent record may be, Hill proved that she can still be a landmine for aspiring contenders.

She’s easy to underestimate and still sharp this deep into her UFC career.

However, it’s likely that Ducote’s got too much for her — her boxing’s more than sharp enough to keep up with Hill on the feet, particularly since she’ll be facing a smaller reach disadvantage than usual, and she’s got some wrestling in her back pocket if that doesn’t work out.

With both an appreciable chance to overpower Hill in “Overkill’s” wheelhouse and the means to change gears as needed, Ducote has too many tools for Hill.

When the dust settles, expect Emily to battle her way to a competitive decision win.

UFC Fight Night – Clay Guida vs. Scott Holtzman

Why Bet on Clay Guida

Now in his 17th year in UFC, Clay Guida (37-19) sits at 2-4 in his last six appearances.

His last two efforts have seen him tap Leonardo Santos with a bonus-winning, rear-naked choke before succumbing to Claudio Puelles’ signature kneebar four months later.

Why Bet on Scott Holtzman

“Hot Sauce” bounced back from a 2-2 UFC start by winning five of his next six, among them a “Fight of the Night” decision over Jim Miller.

He’s winless since, suffering knockout losses to Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot.

He fights for the first time in nearly 20 months.

Clay Guida vs. Scott Holtzman Final Betting Analysis:

The argument for Guida is that Holtzman has had issues with persistent wrestlers in the past, most notably against Gamrot and Nik Lentz, and that “The Carpenter” proved against Santos that he’s still tougher than your metaphor of choice.

The argument for Holtzman is that his two recent defeats came against Top 10-ranked fighters, he’s the better striker, and Guida’s takedown accuracy often leaves a lot to be desired.

The pick is placed on Holtzman.

He’s not likely to submit Guida, but I do expect him to hurt Guida a lot more than Guida hurts him even if he can’t put away “The Carpenter.”

UFC Fight Night – Michael Johnson vs. Marc Diakiese

Why Bet on Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson (21-18) clawed his way out of a 1-5 slump by winning consecutive decisions over Andre Fili and Artem Lobov.

History would repeat itself, and he enters the cage on Saturday with just one win in his last six fights.

This will be his 27th Octagon appearance.

Why Bet on Marc Diakiese

The perfect (3-0) UFC start for Marc Diakiese (16-5) gave way to three straight losses to Drakkar Klose, Dan Hooker, and Nasrat Haqparast.

“Bonecrusher” currently sits at 4-2 in his last six, most recently cruising past Viacheslav Borshchev and Damir Hadzovic in 2022.

Six of his seven stoppage wins have come by knockout.

Michael Johnson vs. Marc Diakiese Final Betting Analysis:

Diakiese’s highlight-reel knockouts earned him some buzz before he stepped foot in the Octagon, but he’s always been willing to lean on his wrestling if it’s the easiest path to victory.

There should be no reason why he won’t do the same here; Johnson seems physically incapable of fixing his awful bottom game, a weakness that has dogged him throughout his UFC career.

Though Johnson does have solid takedown defense, the sheer volume of level changes Diakiese sends his way should get him down sooner or later.

Plus, Diakiese has never been stopped with strikes nor even visibly hurt outside of a wobble against Rafael Alves, so it’s hard to see Johnson sneaking in a kill shot on the rare occasions where he’s allowed to settle on the feet.

In the end, Diakiese caps off the year with a third grind fest.

UFC Fight Night – Darren Elkins vs. Jonathan Pearce

Why Bet on Darren Elkins

A six-fight win streak from 2015 to 2018 had Darren Elkins (28-10) on the verge of contention.

Then came a four-fight losing streak, though he’s since picked up wins in three of four appearances.

Why Bet on Jonathan Pearce

Pearce ran over Jacob Rosales on the Contender Series but received a rude Octagon welcome from Joe Lauzon.

Dropping to 145 paid immediate dividends, as he went on to win his next four and score three stoppages along the way.

He’s knocked out nine and submitted another two as a professional.

Darren Elkins vs. Jonathan Pearce Final Betting Analysis:

Attrition is the most powerful weapon in Elkins’ arsenal.

He’s so exhausting to fight that even if he’s physically or technically overwhelmed early, he claws his way back in with alarming regularity.

It’s a trick that’s worked on a surprising number of very capable fighters but may not work on Pearce.

Jonathan Pearce has the suffocating grappling and functional standup to take Elkins apart, and more importantly, the man simply does not get tired.

There’s just no clear path to victory against a man eight years his junior who thrives in the exact sort of grind that Elkins prefers.

In other words, Pearce takes him apart on the ground, potentially scoring a ground-and-pound finish.

UFC Fight Night – Tracy Cortez vs. Amanda Ribas

Why Bet on Tracy Cortez

Tracy Cortez (10-1) — unbeaten since her professional debut — handed Mariya Agapova her first pro defeat on Contender Series to punch her ticket to the Octagon.

Though plagued with inactivity, she’s nonetheless racked up four wins in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion.

Why Bet on Amanda Ribas

After three years on the sidelines because of a United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) violation, Ribas opened her UFC career perfectly (4-0) with two submission wins.

She’s now 1-2 in her last three, a decision over Virna Jandiroba sandwiched between losses to Marina Rodriguez and Katlyn Chookagian.

Her seven professional stoppage wins include four by submission.

Tracy Cortez vs. Amanda Ribas Final Betting Analysis:

The deciding factor here will be which of the two manages to get the other moving backward.

Cortez could be the stronger overall takedown artist, but she has a habit of backing to the fence that the clinch-happy Ribas will be more than happy to exploit.

Even if Ribas is unlikely to finish Cortez, it’s easy to picture her grinding her way into enough dominant positions for the win.

We are still leaning toward Cortez, though.

Ribas is ridiculously easy to hit, even for a middling striker like Cortez, and the latter showed off some excellent defensive grappling against dangerous submission artists like Stephanie Egger and Melissa Gatto.

In short, she works her way to another UFC victory with clean right hands, regular takedowns, and enough wherewithal to slip out of Ribas’ moments of success.

UFC Fight Night – Natan Levy vs. Genaro Valdéz

Why Bet on Natan Levy

An injury kept Natan Levy (7-1) on the sidelines for a year after his Contender Series victory, and things didn’t get much better when Rafa Garcia defeated him in his debut.

He proved more successful against Mike Breeden, racking up an impressive nine takedowns en route to victory.

Why Bet on Genaro Valdéz

Genaro Valdez (10-1) ended a nearly 15-month layoff by out-warring Patrik White on Contender Series.

He made his UFC debut three months later, coming up short in a five-round slugfest with Matt Frevola.

He’s yet to see the judges as a professional, knocking out seven.

Natan Levy vs. Genaro Valdéz Final Betting Analysis:

They may both be Contender Series graduates, but there’s a massive gulf in class between Levy and Valdez.

Valdez is little more than an admirably gutsy brawler, lacking the striking craft to get through Levy’s kick-heavy standup or the wrestling to keep Levy from burying him in takedowns as he did to Breeden.

Unless that loss to Frevola was a “Come to Jesus” moment that makes Valdez re-evaluate his style and focus more on fundamentals, this will be a rout.

In the end, Levy overpowers him on the mat for a mid-round finish.

UFC Fight Night – Francis Marshall vs. Marcelo Rojo

Why Bet on Francis Marshall

Marshall racked up five amateur wins and four finishes in his first five professional bouts, earning a spot on Contender Series opposite Connor Matthews.

Though he failed to find the finish, his 15 minutes of dominance were enough to earn him a contract.

All four of those stoppages came via rear naked choke.

Why Bet on Marcelo Rojo

The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Latin America 3 semifinalist, Marcelo Rojo (16-9), finally joined UFC in March 2021, falling to Charles Jourdain in an enormously entertaining debut.

Next came another dangerous contender in Kyler Philips, who caught “Pitbull” in a triangle armbar midway through the third round.

Francis Marshall vs. Marcelo Rojo Final Betting Analysis:

Marshall’s wrestling is a weapon for which Rojo has few answers, and though “Fire” remains overly hittable, his stand-up has developed to the point where he can at the very least match Rojo’s brawling with his effective pressure.

The big test is whether Marshall can get Rojo to retreat and put the fear of the level change in him before Rojo can tenderize his lead leg.

Between Marshall’s steady improvement and the threat of the takedown preventing Rojo from sitting down on his kicks, that seems doable.

So long as the bright lights don’t get to Marshall, he wears down Rojo for a wide decision or late stoppage.

UFC Fight Night – Yazmin Jauregui vs. Istela Nunes

Why Bet on Yazmin Jauregui

Yazmin Jauregui (9-0) capped off her impressive Combate run with three wins in a single night, two of them via knockout.

Exactly one year later, she battled her way past late replacement Iasmin Lucindo for her first-ever UFC victory.

She’s scored six knockouts as a professional.

Why Bet on Istela Nunes

Though she failed to topple Angela Lee in her ONE FC title shot, Istela Nunes capped off her stint in the promotion with a decision over Gina Iniong.

She’s still chasing her first win in the Octagon, having lost to Ariane Carnelossi and Sam Hughes in successive efforts.

Yazmin Jauregui vs. Istela Nunes Final Betting Analysis:

The name of the game is “pace.” Nunes’ powerful counters — particularly the step-back right hand she used to great effect against Hughes — are going to give Jauregui fits.

The young slugger can still put too much behind her punches and leave herself open to return fire, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Nunes put the hurt on her in the opening round.

Problem is, the Hughes fight showed quite clearly that Nunes can’t fight that way for 15 minutes, while Jauregui is ready, willing, and able to throw heat until the final bell.

Jauregui’s superior cardio and the wrestling in her back pocket give her the means to claw her way back into the fight once Nunes starts to slow down, so as long as she can survive the early slugfest, she’ll take over down the stretch.