UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Hernandez Fight Card Odds and Picks

The streak of UFC Apex events keeps going, as we approach another interesting card taking place for a Fight Night in the UFC’s controlled space inside their headquarters.

We are going to be getting a fun headliner, as we get a clash between two exciting middleweights who are looking to break into the top names, and this could be their best chance at that.

We are talking about the headliner between the unorthodox Michel Pereira and the upcoming talent Anthony Hernandez, who are looking to get a finish and send a statement with their performance in this clash.

The co-main will see Rob Font welcoming Kyler Philips into the top names in the Bantamweight division, and this could be an action-filled clash if things go well for both sides.

Besides that, we are getting a lot of international talent coming to make their name known on this card, which will have five main card bouts and another six prelims, for 11 events.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Hernandez Fight Card Odds and Picks

UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Anthony Hernandez

Why Bet on Michel Pereira?

Pereira is, first and foremost, a fantastic underdog. We were surprised that he was one considering how much he has blasted through his last few opponents. However, we think the problem with Pereira lies in how much he lacks defensive fundamentals and gives in to pressure too much.

Yes, he has insane punching power and is a crazy, crazy explosive fighter thanks to his Capoeira background. However, if Hernandez gets in close and manages to get a hold of him, it could be a rough night in the office, especially if Pereira succumbs to cardio problems from the third round onwards.

However, with that said, Pereira is a freakish sniper. He gives in to pressure but remains calm and often needs to throw off a quick and explosive combination to make his opponent step back.

Pereira has a disgusting takedown defense percentage of 94%. No one has really tried to test that takedown defense outside of Ponzinibbio, so maybe we are going to see a more accurate percentage once Hernandez tries to grapple with him. Still, any time the fight remains standing, Hernandez is in massive danger of eating a powerful right hand to the face.

Why Bet on Anthony Hernandez?

Hernandez has upset a bunch of parlays during his career, and there’s a reason why he does that. It’s because he has a remarkable ability to stay in the fight long enough to find an opening on the ground in which he can quickly snatch up a submission.

He submitted Rodolfo Vieira, one of the best grapplers to grace the octagon. Hernandez is not too great on the feet though, as he is susceptible to eating a lot of heavy shots. Still, he hangs on in the fight long enough for his opponent to expose their neck or feel too comfortable to see a takedown coming.

Final Betting Analysis: Michel Pereira vs. Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez needs to get this fight to the ground to win, we do not see him outstriking someone like Pereira. We don’t know how difficult that will be for him as we have not seen him face someone with such good takedown defense on paper.

We expect that if the fight hits the mat, Hernandez will be incredibly quick to lock up a body triangle and look for that submission. Still, it’s the stand-up sequence that concerns us the most for him as Pereira is dangerous.

UFC Fight Night: Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips

Why Bet on Rob Font?

Font has had it rough this past year, with two tough losses against Figueiredo and Sandhagen. Its clear that whilst he is fighting the top of the division, he falls behind when it comes to people who know what a takedown is.

Font is a sharp boxer, the longer this fight stays on the feet, the more confidence he grows, and if he becomes confident, boy he is a phenomenal top-tier fighter. Again though, his deficiencies as a fighter are well known, he struggles against people who are outstanding wrestlers and grapplers, and it just turns out that’s what Phillips is, so this fight ultimately comes down to whether or not he can keep the fight standing.

Why Bet on Kyler Phillips?

Phillips is on an absolute tear at the moment, and we know that he lost a majority decision to Paiva, but holy hell you cannot deny that this guy has snuck his way to this position without saying much.

He goes into the cage, does his work, then leaves the victor for the most part. We have been ridiculously high on Phillips for one main reason, and that’s his fight IQ and his ability to level change at the right time. However, he also feels incredibly comfortable on his feet regardless of the threat standing before him.

At range, he typically uses a lot of kicks to just deal damageand slow down his opponent as wellas keep the range where he wants to. We think that if he smacks the legs of Font early, that will severely diminish his punching power and allow Phillips to be a lot more free to strike.

Ultimately though, his best and cleanest way to win the fight is to wrestle, as he has done so effortlessly in the last few fights.

Final Betting Analysis: Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips

We don’t know if Font has improved during this camp to where he can stuff Phillips’ takedowns. Still, we are somewhat doubtful that he will be that successful in stuffing all those takedowns.

Phillips’ well-roundedness will be key in dismantling the NEC boxer, and unless Font has indeed worked and improved his takedown defense substantially, can’t help but see Phillips just outworking him, getting those takedowns, and being too much for Font to handle.

UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. Charles Johnson

Why Bet on Sumudaerji?

Sumudaerji has had a rough couple of years, as he has not been too active, nor has he achieved a victory against his two opponents Matt Schnell and Tim Elliott. We mean, to lose to those two fighters is kind of telling of how good a fighter is.

Sumudaerji is a relatively strong starter, he can be an aggressive fighter for that first round, constantly in his opponents’ faces. At times, that is often the best strategy when fighting someone like Johnson.

Our concern is how slippery Johnson can be. He is not exactly a uniform fighter, he doesn’t do things in a traditional sense, and he’sgreat at moving away from danger, yet switching it up on the fly and going on the attack at any moment. He is so hard to predict and read, which is why action early is best in order to make sure that the chaos that Johnson brings is calmed a bit.

Why Bet on Charles Johnson?

Johnson is not what we’d call a great fighter because he doesn’t fight like such, but we think that works in his favor.

He throws a wide net of attacks out at an arrhythmic pace. There’s no real way to tell what he’s going to throw or when he’s just so chaotic and random, it’s great when it works in his favor and awkward when it doesn’t.

Considering that Johnson’s cardio is out-freaking-standing, we expect to see him look like the fresher fighter as the rounds go by as well. We think early on if he utilizes his teeps to the body, that divide in cardio and fatigue from both fighters will grow wider and wider as Johnson looks fresh, and due to the body strikes, Sumudaerji fades a bit due to the body strikes.

Final Betting Analysis: Sumudaerji vs. Charles Johnson

Sumudaerji is going to have to mix in all of the tools in his toolbox to at least get a small advantage over the ever-so-dangerous Charles Johnson. That is because if he is unable to keep up with Johnson’s pace and level of activity, he is just going to fall behind on the scorecards.

We got Johnson winning this one, as we think this is going to be a competitive fight for the first round. However, if he digs into the body with those teeps and continues to be a hard-to-hit target, he should come out on top here.

UFC Fight Night: Jake Hadley vs. Cameron Smotherman

Why Bet on Jake Hadley?

Hadley has always been someone we have had a rather soft heart for. He is a relatively well-rounded fighter who has a really fast and sharp hand. In fact, we would comfortably say that we think he has a huge speed advantage, not only with his footwork and hand speed, but just overall being a hard-to-track target, and considering that Smotherman looks like a head hunter, we can’t help but think that Hadley is going to be too hard to hit.

Hadley is also a fairly decent wrestler, but we wonder if that’s too risky given Smothermans decent submission ability. So, it would be interesting to see where Hadley is going to go in this fight.

Why Bet on Cameron Smotherman?

Smotherman didn’t achieve much success during his DWCS fight against Charalampos Grigoriou but bounced back quite well when he returned to Fury FC.

Now, Smotherman’s striking is pretty good. His jab is a major building block for his future success during that bout, he builds off it rather well, but there is one thing that we don’t quite like andthat’s his head movement and really how easy of a target his head is.

We do not like Smotherman in this fight at all. He has great boxing combinations, but the output is what makes him dangerous, andif Hadley is able to survive any storm that Smotherman is bound to bring into the cage during that first round.We can’t help but think Smotherman is going to slow down a little bit after that first round andthat’s perhaps when Hadley is going to start picking up the pace.

Final Betting Analysis: Jake Hadley vs. Cameron Smotherman

We give Hadley the edge overall as he has been tested properly in the UFC whereas Smotherman is just someone we can’t quite get a proper read on.

We expect Smotherman to come out very strongly in the first round, wanting to prove a point to everyone and all that, and if Hadley survives, then he will likely take over as his rival fatigues as he did not have a full camp and is fighting down a weight class.

UFC Fight Night: Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda

Why Bet on Darren Elkins?

Elkins has been a fantastic fighter for most of his career. He thrives in chaotic fights andeats whatever he needs to in order to get close to his opponent to wrestle, and that has been his key to victory for as long as we have seen him fight.

Elkins has seemingly extended his career through decent wins and fairly competitive bouts. Even if his fight against JSP (Jonathan Pearce) was fairly competitive when it came to wrestling and grappling, he managed to stuff quite a few takedowns, and that somewhat cements his capabilities as a wrestler more.

We wonder how much damage Elkins will absorb to achieve success this weekendbecause the damage is a major scoring factor, and even if Elkins gets cut open, that could tilt the scorecards a bit, but we believe his wrestling is going to be ever so present during this bout.

Why Bet on Daniel Pineda?

Pineda is a weird one to talk about because he has never really shown himself to be a UFC-level fighter.Despite fighting in the UFC, we suppose we call these kinds of fighters fillers, ones that Dana calls just so the card gets fuller.

There is no denying the fact that Pineda is a prolific finisher though. He has a 100% finishing rate on his win column, and that could perhaps be replicated here if he manages to successfully reverse positions that Elkins puts him in and starts hammering ground and pound. That is because, eventually, Elkins will wilt due to the damage.

However, we justdon’t know how good he is at the moment because his wins have been against horrible fighters. His losses have been by veterans, so we justdon’t quite know if Pineda is up to the tall task of taking out Elkins.

Final Betting Analysis: Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda

Darren has a clear advantage in the wrestling department for this fight because frankly, we cannot remember Pineda ever being a good counter wrestler. So, we suspect that Elkins is going fight like Elkins typically does, push forward, be incredibly aggressive with his forward pressure and just crowd the punches of Pineda through takedown attempts and level changes. Anything to somewhat not allow Pineda to settle in, Elkins will do.

UFC Fight Night: Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev

Why Bet on Matheus Nicolau?

Nicolau is on a tough losing streak, and it’s often difficult to gauge how far a fighter has improved when both of those losses haven’t gone the distance,or there just hasn’t been enough visual evidence of improvement.

Now, Nicolau is a sharp boxer who is lightning quick on the feet and honestly lands at a stupendously accurate rate of 52% throughout his career, that’s massive for someone with his career length. However, how much of that accuracy is going to take place if he’s being pushed and pressured by Almabayev?

Now, Nicolau, when he’s feeling himself and is in a flow state, his boxing is fantastic, he’s hard to track down and he has so many combinations in his arsenal that it is hard to predict and read what’s coming.

Why Bet on Asu Almabayev?

Almabayev has seemingly come out of nowhere but is suddenly a top 15 with wins over Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara. Nothing makes sense anymore.

Almabayev is coming into this fight with quite a lot of momentum behind him, and the primary talking points surrounding him are his wrestling pace and sheer pressure. He is relentless and just a monster to deal with, but we would be remiss if we did not mention our concern surrounding his cardio in the later rounds against a tough boxer like Nicolau.

Almabayev has many, many hours of fights under his belt. He is very experienced and his entire game plan when he fights is to wrestle, wrestle, and wrestle. Eventually, someone’s cardio must run out and it seems like Almabayev’s cardio is solid enough for him to fight at a high pace for three rounds. Still, we genuinely would love to see more of what he can do, particularly in the striking department.

Final Betting Analysis: Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev

Nicolau loves to posture up and make sure his right hand is ready to fire, and he often uses a lot of lateral movement and leg kicks to slow down his opponent. That could be key in stopping the initial momentum from Almabayev, but if it doesn’t, we feel like Almabayev will have the freedom to just pressure and make Nicolau panic.

Almabayev seemingly is a machine of pressure and if he can put a halt toNicolau’s ability to grow in confidence during the fight, we are likely to see him just go for takedown after takedown.

UFC Fight Night: Brad Katona vs. Jean Matsumoto

Why Bet on Brad Katona?

Katona may be a fighter that struggles to change gears during a fight, but he fights damn well in that gear. He stays in the fight, stays in front of his opponent’s face, and isn’t afraid to let his hands go in a fairly rhythmic manner, but as we precluded before, he struggles to ramp it up when he needs to.

Katona sometimes cannot up the ante and starts to land more determined strikes. One thing that we have always liked about him was his output and activity. He is someone we sometimes call a five-second fighter, which sounds terrible butessentially he is always active within a five-second span. There is barely any break or long reset, he is constantly feinting, throwing boxing combinations, level-changing, andwrestling. He is overwhelming andhe makes it rather difficult for his opponents to implement their game plan and that is good to see.

Why Bet on Jean Matsumoto?

Matsumoto has looked relatively unstoppable in his run through his MMA career, and whilst it may appear on record that he’s mostly a submission specialist, we cannot express how much he loves to throw and land leg kicks early. They are his primary striking weapon in the first round and they could absolutely be pivotal in stopping the quick pace and footwork of Katona early.

Now, Matsumoto’s takedown defense is a bit iffy, but he stuff ten takedowns from Argueta, and in the nine times he got down, Argueta could only maintain six minutes of control time. So, it’s clear that Matsumoto doesn’t want to stay on the ground for a long time, especially not in disadvantageous positions.

All of his submission wins have come by variations of chokes, which tells us that he is comfortable in a position for as long as he is able to cinch up a choke. If he can’t get that choke, he works to stand back up.

Final Betting Analysis: Brad Katona vs. Jean Matsumoto

If Katona is still stuckin a gear, Matsumoto will eventually turn up the pace himself and look like the more active fighter who is landing the more damaging strikes.

Now, if a takedown happens, it is possible that Matsumoto will instinctively grab a guillotine, especially since the latter’s reach length allows that choke to come in a bit easier. So, it would not surprise us that if Katona does go for a double or single-leg takedown, we will see Matsumoto look for that choke, which should land him an early finish.

UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Tamires Vidal

Why Bet on Joselyne Edwards?

Edwards is one of those fighters that is going absolutely nowhere in her career. She has stayed within the debut area of the rosterin which she is just being fed either new prospects or old-school fighters. She hasn’t performed well enough to show us, or, more importantly, the matchmakers, that she’s here for any championship aspirations.

Edwards is primarily a boxer who is relatively strong on the feet, as she has a few good striking combinations in her arsenal. Still, she is ultimately looking to be a decision merchant with zero urgency in finishing her opponents.

She is a safe striker. She doesn’t overwhelm her opponents in volume or look to knock them out with heavy single attacks, as she strikes in short bursts followed by a long reset as she finds another opportunity to strike.

Why Bet on Tamires Vidal?

Vidal has been a bit of a rough fighter to watch because we all probably thought she was going to demolish her way through the division after that flying knee KO over Pascual. Then we got back-to-back losses that were ridiculously one-sided, and honestly quite odd.

Vidal’s strength is her power, she is going to have a massive advantage in this fight with her ridiculously strong punches, but that’s seemingly all she has. If Edwards refuses to play that game of exchanging strikes and being in the firing lane, then the former is going to be wholly ineffective.

To address the elephant in the room, Vidal’s last KO loss was due to a breast strike, something that is probably a rare incident of the nerves in the area being walloped in one go. However, if it’s a legal strike, and if Vidal is particularly susceptible to it, then what’s to say that Edwards won’t actively target that area in hopes of finally getting a finish in the UFC?

Final Betting Analysis: Joselyne Edwards vs. Tamires Vidal

Now, it’s going to be rather interesting to see if Edwards is able to handle the ferocity and aggression that Vidal has displayed in her previous fights. That is because if Vidal does start to bully Joselyne, we could quickly see her fade and slow down as she absorbs damage. So, realistically, for Edwards to win, she needs to control Vidal with jabs and keep the fight safe and boring.

We struggle to see where Vidal can get a win outside of visually being the more active fighter who pursues the finish or who starts the action. Stylistically, we think Edwards is the more clean and has that foundational boxing that just looks somewhat proper and crisp.

UFC Fight Night: Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed

Why Bet on Jessica Penne?

Penne should have retired many years ago, but thus she is still around for some unknown reason. The good news for her is that she has a decent reach advantage over Reed, but that much has been figured out if you look at the Tale of the Tape.

Penne has quite a few years of experience to rely on, and even though age is a major talking point in this fight, we think that she can be a rather challenging test for Reed.

Penne is demonic when she’s got her opponent on her guard. She is incredibly active in firing off submission attempt after submission attempt, and they come relatively easily for her due to her length, and that is one thing Reed is going to have to be super careful about.

Why Bet on Elise Reed?

Reed being 10 years younger than Penne gives her a bit of an advantage in athleticism and perhaps room for growth, but honestly, she doesn’t seem to be a magnificent fighter by any means. She seems to have floated in the UFC, winning some fights here, andlosing other fights there. She is as standard as a fighter can get, she does not excel anywhere, she’s got decent kickboxing, she times off her attacks fairly well, and her takedown defense and offense are relatively okay.

If Reed wrestles, we expect her to pull ahead on the scorecards as long as she avoids any precarious position in which Penne can throw up a triangle or an armbar off her back. That is because the long legs and arms of Penne are perfect for defensive submission attempts off her back.

Final Betting Analysis: Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed

Penne might not be the most ferocious kickboxer or striker on the feet, and her length is often a problem for fighters when they try to enter range for takedowns, but we think one trick up Penne’s sleeve that Reed might be victim to is the knees in the clinch, Penne’s length would allow her to tie up her opponent in a clinch whilst landing those knees.

However, we are still quite concerned about Penne’s cardio and ability to take a high pace fight to the distance. If Reed is anything, she’s someone willing to be gritty enough to out-pace her opponent when the situation calls for it.

We just do not like Penne’s chances in this particular fight, we think her time in the UFC is up, and whilst Reed is barely a threat to most fighters in the division, we think that rate of improvement from her is going to shine against someone who has severely stagnated and whose only chance at a win is a slick submission from the guard.

UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Melissa Martinez

Why Bet on Alice Ardelean?

Ardelean is coming off a fairly competitive back-and-forth bout against Shauna Bannon. She displayed some serious grit when the going got tough, didn’t back down from any of Bannon’s momentum-building moments, stood her ground effectively, and fought back just as hard.

Ardelean can take punishment and yet stay within herself to fire right back, and that’s a genuinely strong trait as a mixed martial artist. Now, Ardelean does not have that high level of striking you would expect to see in the UFC, but we think that her activity in her last few years does translate well to her growth as a fighter. Maybe, since she’s in the UFC now, she’s going to take her career more seriously.

That includes the fact that she needs to make weight properly because she looked dreadful on the scales before her fight against Bannon.

Why Bet on Melissa Martinez?

Martinez is a bit of a questionable fighter at the moment, her last fight was two years ago, it was a loss against Elise Reed, and we believe the reason for her long hiatus has been due to a few knee injuries that she hopefully has fixed.

Martinez is a former Combate champion and had a relatively long and successful career in that organization for five years prior to joining the UFC back in 2022. So, it’sobvious that she is a proper MMA fighter who has devoted quite a long time to advancing her career and getting all the right experience one must get in order to be at the top.

However, we are highly cautious about going all out with saying she’s going to win this, primarily because of that knee injury/recovery within the last two years.

Martinez is a very well-rounded fighter who is relatively quick on the feet and isn’t afraid to throw quick body teeps and snappy leg kicks. However, all of her strikes come in single shots. We don’t think she knows what volume is, but she knows what moving her hands a lot and showing off tiny little feints here and there is. So, she doesn’texactly capitalize on her speed, shemostly uses it as a single-shot stun in order to slowly deal damage or even turn the momentum around to her favor.

Final Betting Analysis: Alice Ardelean vs. Melissa Martinez

We expect the first rounds to mostly be kick-heavy from both fighters, with Martinez and Ardelean exchanging body and leg kicks. We do not like either fighter striking defense, so anyone who initiates the action the most, is likely to get the win, most likely on the scorecards.

We will put our nod on Ardelean due to Melissa having too many unknown factors coming into this one.

UFC Fight Night: Robelis Despaigne vs. Austen Lane

Why Bet on Robelis Despaigne?

Despaigne came into the UFC with a large amount of hype behind him, and we think anyone with enough of a functional brain knew that he was a bit rough around the edges considering his background.

All of this was exposed during his last fight when he fought Cortes-Acosta, in which he essentially wet-blanketed him for nine minutes. It was a rather boring fight.

Now, Despaigne is incredibly well-known for his kicks. He is a one-dimensional striker who has fantastic taekwondo and incredible power in such a large frame. It’s, no doubt, a unique challenge for any of his opponents, but it is clear to us that he absolutely has disadvantages on the ground. He has less ground game than a blimp in a monsoon andit’s just nearly non-existent, so we don’t believe that he is going to improve any time soon.

Why Bet on Austen Lane?

Lane has not had a UFC career worthy of talking about, he has lost against the likes of Justin Tafa and Jhonata Diniz, two relatively okay heavyweights who hit hard.

Lane showed some instinct to take down Diniz early in their fight, and that brings a bit of promise to this underdog as that is the exact thing that he needs to win against Despaigne, but we cannot exactly trust him enough to do that.

Lane is primarily a heavy and quick puncher who isn’t afraid to let his hands go early on in his fights.However, he isn’texactly a stylistic masterpiece, even if he is seemingly your standard heavyweight who has an ounce more athleticism than other Heavyweights do.He’s relatively light-footed and has a bit of striking diversity in his arsenal, but we think the problem that Lane deals with is the fact that he’s incredibly hittable.

Final Betting Analysis: Robelis Despaigne vs. Austen Lane

Austen Lane is going to attempt to replicate what Cortes-Acosta did. However, with that said, if Despaigne has learned a tiny, tiny bit of takedown defense things like digging underhooks or stuffing the head. He should at least have a bit more of a chance.

Anyway, Lane has one major advantage over Despaigne, and that’s experience. He knows that the latter is a striking threat, and the longer he keeps this fight standing, the more opportunity he has to settle in and land his powerful singular attacks.

Lane’s chin is very much in the air. If he isn’t moving around, he’s a very stationary target, and if Despaigne does march forward and explode into an attack, the former could be caught with something as his defensive shell is a lot more offensive in position than defensive.

We believe this will be the case and that Despaigne will find an early finish.

Pereira vs. Hernandez Betting Pick: Michel Pereira

Font vs. Phillips Betting Pick: Kyler Phillips

Sumudaerji vs. Johnson Betting Pick: Charles Johnson

Hadley vs. Smotherman Betting Pick: Jake Hadley

Elkins vs. Pineda Betting Pick: Darren Elkins

Nicolau vs. Almabayev Betting Pick: Asu Almabayev

Katona vs. Matsumoto Betting Pick: Jean Matsumoto

Edwards vs. Vidal Betting Pick: Joselyne Edwards

Penne vs. Reed Betting Pick: Elise Reed

Ardelean vs. Martinez Betting Pick: Alice Ardelean

Despaigne vs. Lane Betting Pick: Robelis Despaigne