UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis Fight Card Odds and Picks

After such a big event like Noche UFC, one would expect that Dana White would take things back to the APEX but instead, we are getting a fun Fight Night in the Accor Arena in Paris, France, which will be filled with a ton of international talent.

The main event fight will see an interesting clash for the lightweights, as Renato Moicano and the local Benoit Saint-Denis take each other on in what could end up as a heated brawl between two exciting fighters.

The co-main event sees a possible title eliminator bout, as the local fighter, Nassourdine Imanov, faces the the American Brendan Allen on a middleweight bout that we are all awaiting to see.

Besides the French fighters on the headliners, we have another 7 Local representatives on the card, and they will be looking to please the crowd with finishes and dominating performances along the event.

We have 14 fights, with 6 of them in the main card and 8 on the Prelims, and this event will be a great time to catch with the new talents, as a lot of the fighters in the card are still on that run to make their name well known, and this might be their chance.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

UFC Fight Night: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Renato Moicano

Why Bet on Benoit Saint-Denis?

It’s tricky with Benoit Saint-Denis because we’re currently unsure what to make of his cardio. Almost all of his fights have seen him win in very dominant fashion early, without having to really face much resistance on the return.

However, against Dustin Poirier last time, he crumbled under the pressure when it was clear that Dustin wasn’t going anywhere and he eventually gassed out.

Unfortunately, there were many staph infection rumours that fight week, and we believe BSD has since come out and confirmed he had staph and that it affected him.

Therefore, we don’t know whether to lean into the cardio narrative in this fight. Fighters like to make excuses, so perhaps his cardio is that bad, or perhaps he’s being transparent.

Unfortunately, we think it’s the key piece of the puzzle for this fight, because a win for Renato Moicano very much relies on it.

Why Bet on Renato Moicano?

Money Moicano is a a BJJ ace, so it’s fair to assume that he can survive on the mat against Benoit in the same way that Poirier did, and provide a similar amount of resistance.

Therefore, if BSD’s cardio problems against The Diamond were a true indication of his actual gas tank, Moicano has a very achievable path to victory. Especially, in a five rounder where he’s got a long time to survive if his opponent starts to fade by Round 3.

Outside of the cardio dynamic though, Moicano is also in a weird position when it comes to durability. He’s been frail historically, seen in the early KO losses to Korean Zombie and Rafael Fiziev, but he’s also shown some impressive toughness against Jalin Turner and Rafael dos Anjos.

Final Betting Analysis: Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

If BSD has much more in the tank and can go hard for a longer period when not hampered by staph, then his aggressive style should be all too much for his Brazilian opponent.

Regardless, we think it’s fair to say that Moicano is in real trouble early in this fight, and he’s going to have to really persevere and fight physically and mentally if he wants to make it to the second round.

BSD has all the finishing upside early in the fight, and the main narrative that would see him come unstuck isn’t even a confirmed weakness.

It’s possible he loses this fight if Moicano can survive and turn the tide, but he could also very simply blitz the frail Brazilian, and score a dominant early win on home soil.

UFC Fight Night: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen

Why Bet on Nassourdine Imavov?

We think Nassourdine Imavov is capable of keeping this fight standing, in the same way that Chris Curtis did. Whilst we don’t think Imavov’s pure takedown defence is quite as good as Curtis’, his striking output and overall IQ are much higher, which should negate the number of takedown attempts he faces in the first place.

We have seen Imavov face Curtis himself, and he absolutely destroyed him until the weaseling took place. In our opinion, Imavov is a fighter that continues to impress and is underrated by most.

We tried to bet Jared Cannonier against him, so until recently we were also some of these people.

Why Bet on Brendan Allen?

Brendan Allen is existing on borrowed time in the division’s top 10, or so we think. However, he is still the guy that barely got past Jacob Malkoun, and the guy that got KO’d by Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis.

His time in the top has shown him massively overachieve due to favourable match-making – A good grappler with mediocre strikes will always do well against Paul Craig, Andre Muniz, Sam Alvey, and Krystof Jotko. The Malkoun win was by the skin of his teeth. The only very impressive performance was against Bruno Silva.

Final Betting Analysis: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen

We think Nassourdine Imavov can put on a dominant performance here, and show that there are levels between the elite folks at 185lbs, and those who do not belong.

This clash should be the one that finally writes Allen off the top ten in the division, and let someone else more deserving to slip in.

UFC Fight Night: William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito

Why Bet on William Gomis?

Gomis is one of the more successful Frenchmen on the UFC’s roster, but we guess the issue is that he’s a pretty boring fighter to watch. His striking is pretty inoffensive and risk-averse.

He likes to do his work from distance and avoid a brawl as much as possible. He’ll mix in takedowns too, but he’s not a beast wrestler and doesn’t really do too much with them when he gets them. Your classic decision guy that’ll lull you to sleep.

Why Bet on Joanderson Brito?

When Joanderson made his UFC debut, we thought that he could be the next big Brazilian star. During the fight with Bill Algeo, he slowed down and his cardio lost him the fight.

We expected Jonathan Pearce to beat him out, and we were looking like geniuses as Pearce wiped the floor with him, then an opportunistic submission flipped the script. We were fuming, but when he was booked against Jack Shore, and we were once again convinced that the fade was on.

Brito has grown a bit since the Algeo debut though – we think his fight IQ has improved, as has that cardio. The way he utilised the leg kick against Jack Shore was so smart, we weren’t even mad that we lost our bet then, all we could do was applaud.

Final Betting Analysis: William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito

It feels to us like Brito could land half the amount of strikes as Gomis does, and he’d be still win the round with how much he does with them.

That’s not to say that Gomis can’t win this fight. If he can stay to the outside, use his range, mix in takedowns, he can win a decision on home soil.

Brito’s got too much fight ending capabilities on his side to be discredited, and we expect him to win here one way or another.

UFC Fight Night: Kevin Jousset vs. Bryan Battle

Why Bet on Kevin Jousset?

We bet on Kevin Jousset in his UFC debut. Largely, due to the fact that Kiefer Crosbie is a roleplayer with absolutely no business fighting UFC/Bellator/PFL level competition.

Jousset didn’t even look amazing to us on tape, we just knew we’d only get a few bites of the cherry to fade the Conor McGregor wannabe. He didn’t even look that great, and the finish seemed a bit fortunate.

However, that was followed up with a much better showing against Song Kenan, demonstrating that decent striking game that he’s been sharpening at City Kickboxing.

Why Bet on Bryan Battle?

Bryan Battle is a guy that we have lowkey been very impressed by since making his UFC debut. We didn’t expect him to amount to much coming off TUF, but the way he’s developed his entire game has been refreshing.

Guys like Ange Loosa can be tricky to deal with if you’re fringe UFC calibre, but Battle went out there and styled on him. He’s developed into a threat in multiple areas as well, where his striking is good and dangerous enough to compliment his already good grappling.

Final Betting Analysis: Kevin Jousset vs. Bryan Battle

Jousset was lowkey a pretty bad grappler on the regional scene. He faced some dodgy competition, and even started mixing in takedowns himself, but his kickboxing background really shows itself, and we think a lot of people who aren’t familiar with his overall game are going to be surprised at how one-dimensional he suddenly looks in this fight. We think Battle can wipe the floor with him on the mat.

Of course, we still give Jousset the striking advantage, but the key talking point that still make us confident in Battle is overall dangerousness.

Jousset is a technical point fighter, but we don’t really see him using the striking superiority to stop Battle dead. And even on the contrary, Battle has looked lethal himself at times, winning in under a minute on two occasions against two UFC veterans that previously hadn’t been finished in the organisation. Even if not, the longer the fight lasts, the more of an opportunity it gives Battle to get himself into grappling positions.

UFC Fight Night: Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda

Why Bet on Morgan Charriere?

Charriere is an impressive fighter that we think many had high hopes for, but then the underrated Chepe Mariscal put a dent in the plans. Morgan is a great fighter but his career has been riddled with competitive decision losses.

We always say that there’s no smoke without fire when it comes to these kind of trends, so we was definitely nervous that Morgan would lose on the scorecards to Chepe, even though we had him winning 2-1. Going forward, this is an undeniable red flag that we should be wary of.

Why Bet on Gabriel Miranda?

Miranda surprised us with that very quick win over Shane Young. He has always been a super aggressive wrestler (similar to BSD, who he actually fought semi-recently), so he hit his path to victory. But he’s a very flawed fighter that slows down and only seems to have a Plan A.

Final Betting Analysis: Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda

It’s pretty simple – Charriere is a competent grappler, we don’t think Miranda is going to steam roll him or even find much of an advantage.

It is a possibility he finds that early finish though. However, we struggle to see what else Miranda brings to the table if his takedowns and submissions don’t amount to anything.

On the reverse, Charriere’s aforementioned decision concerns won’t be at play here because it looks like Miranda is even less reliable on the scorecards than he is.

We don’t give Miranda much of a shot outside that rabies grappling in the first round, and even that is a slim chance, so Morgan should be the one to get the nod.

UFC Fight Night: Fares Ziam vs. Matt Frevola

Why Bet on Fares Ziam?

Actually a very interesting fight. Fares Ziam is a guy that we actually rate a fair amount at the lower level of the UFC – we think he’s got a pretty competent and well rounded game, and he’s hard to look good against. Those kind of guys will always thrive against the bottom third of the division.

But Fares Ziam is a pretty inoffensive guy. He’s fought more than 90 minutes inside the UFC cage and we’re not sure there’s been a single moment where he’s even been close to a finish.

Therefore, we think it’s fair to say that if Ziam is going to win this fight, he’s likely going to have to do so on the scorecards. That’s tricky, cosidering Frevola is a great wrestler in his own right, and has the power advantage and is more damaging on the feet.

Why Bet on Matt Frevola?

We’d say Frevola is a step above the level that Ziam should be comfortable beating, though. He’s also a pretty well-rounded guy, but he’s got more danger to his game, for better or worse. He hits damn hard.

He KO’d Drew Dober, which is an insanely difficult thing to do! He’s also been flatlined a few times himself. Most recently against BSD, but also in 7 seconds from Terrance McKinney once upon a time. And also Polo Reyes inside a minute. When you’ve got 3 KO losses in under 2 minutes, it’s a concern.

Final Betting Analysis: Fares Ziam vs. Matt Frevola

We don’t see massive advantages on either side here, but in my opinion Matt Frevola is the slightly more assertive guy, and also has the finishing upside.

That obviously gets offset by the fears of home cooking, and the thought that Ziam will have a slight natural advantage as the Frenchman in France, but we still think Frevola should be the one to take the win here.

UFC Fight Night: Ion Cuțelaba vs. Ivan Erslan

Why Bet on Ion Cuțelaba?

Ion Cuțelaba is an aggressive fighter with powerful striking and good wrestling but he gas out easily and fades in the later rounds. We have to point out that Cuțelaba fights are usually a car crash.

He’s aggressive and sloppy, but usually falls apart if a fight hits round two. He’s not trustworthy to deliver unless he’s a decent sized underdog that can spring an upset.

Why Bet on Ivan Erslan?

We are not really sure about Ivan Erslan, who is making his UFC debut. However, we don’t think he is the kind of fighter that can outlast Cuțelaba and this fight could end quickly for either fighter in the first round.

Final Betting Analysis: Ion Cuțelaba vs. Ivan Erslan

We are picking Cuțelaba here as he has more experience at the UFC level and at least we have seen in the first round he can be very dangerous with finishing potential.

But the lack of tape to watch on Ivan Erslan really has us puzzled on this one.

UFC Fight Night: Oumar Sy vs. Da Woon Jung

Why Bet on Oumar Sy?

Omar Sy is the UFC’s next scary big Light Heavyweight. The question here is if he’ll be able to take the shot and win the ‘easy’ opportunity given to him by the matchmakers, or if he will fail and be tossed aside like 100s of big lads before him.

Sy is primarily a grappler, which is a very interesting style to have in a weight class of mostly KO artists who don’t spend enough time grappling in the gym.

We saw in his debut that he knows how to play to his strengths. He wasted no time in initiating that takedown, and he flowed on top really well. We don’t know much about Tokkos, but he didn’t offer much on the return.

Why Bet on Da Woon Jung?

There was a time where Da Woon Jung was thought of as a decent competitor at 205lbs. He’s a striker with competent speed and agility, and he’s also mixed in wrestling before.

Unfortunately, his wins have aged like milk, and the UFC have seemingly discarded any long term plans they had for him. He’s now on a three fight losing streak, most recently suffering a submission loss to Carlos Ulberg, first place in the UFC LHW golden goose race.

Jung didn’t really disgrace himself in that fight, despite winning no rounds and getting tapped by a kickboxer, but it’s a testament to the fact that he’s not an awful fighter. We’d still consider him an adequate test for any top 15 hopeful.

Final Betting Analysis: Oumar Sy vs. Da Woon Jung

Perhaps we are too hung up on the “old days” of 2021, where Jung was a respected and well rounded fighter because we’re not sure you can argue that Sy really deserves that huge favoritism.

He is still vastly unproven. Jung’s takedown defence is nothing to write home about, but it’s also not a glaring weakness. He got taken down three times by Devin Clark, but it’s not like anything came from them either.

We’ve no strong opinions on this one, but that tells us this line is likely way too wide. We don’t think you can watch Sy beat Tokkos and conclude he beats an eight-fight UFC veteran with no obvious grappling weakness 80% of the time.

Oumar Sy will likely win here, but we believe that the fight will be harder for him than anybody gives Da Woon Jung credit for.

UFC Fight Night: Ľudovít Klein vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Why Bet on Ľudovít Klein?

We’d often refer to certain fighters as “most improved,” and we think Ľudovít Klein is one of them. When he came into the UFC he was a very dangerous head-kick merchant, and it didn’t take long before he learnt that you need more than to just be able to finish folks early.

He got decisioned by Trizano, then drowned by Nate Landwehr, but after that he has turned a corner and completely re-invented himself. We are very impressed with the fighter he has turned into in recent years.

Why Bet on Roosevelt Roberts?

Roosevelt Roberts’ first UFC stint crashed and burned, despite many having high hopes for him. The shock loss to Kevin Croom as a -600 favourite really was the tipping point.

We remember when he was being thought of as a future top 15 guy. Crazy how little that panned out. He’s not really a specialist at anything, but seems to lean more on his grappling than anything else.

Nothing he does is particularly impressive though, and he seems to be lacking in the danger department.

Final Betting Analysis: Ľudovít Klein vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Once upon a time this would have been a very interesting prospect show-down, but now Klein is a huge favorite and it’s a squash match. We cannot stress how wild that is – if you’d been in a coma for a few years and you saw this betting line it would be enough to put you back into one!

But, as people who is always aware of recency bias, we still remember a time where Ľudovít Klein was drawing with Jai Herbert and going to a split decision with Devonte Smith. There is still the possibility that he has a showing that is more reminiscent of the earlier UFC days, and it could be hard to trust him, but we think he will win the match.

UFC Fight Night: Taylor Lapilus vs. Vince Morales

Why Bet on Taylor Lapilus?

Taylor Lapilus is one hell of a fighter. He’s got a point-fighting style, where there isn’t much fear of a finish or any damage being dealt out, but he’s very hard to beat on the feet across 15 minutes.

We do not think Vince Morales is going to be the superior minute winner at distance – he will need to strike gold and find a finish out of nothing.

Why Bet on Vince Morales?

Interesting that they brought Vince Morales back. We actually think he’ll do much better this time, given that the standard of your average UFC fighter is lower than it was during his first stint.

Morales wasn’t terrible, he just had some really bad matchmaking – Miles Johns, Jonathan Martinez, Chris Gutierrez, and Yadong Song are three of his five losses. Don’t get us wrong though, he wasn’t a world beater.

Final Betting Analysis: Taylor Lapilus vs. Vince Morales

The common thought would be to grapple a guy like Lapilus, but he’s got incredible takedown defence. Morales also doesn’t try to wrestle much anyway so no real concerns there either.

All in all, we are struggling to see how Morales wins this fight, other than a low % KO with a strike that Lapilus doesn’t see coming. Not the craziest thing in the world, but honestly we think Taylor should be the safe pick by far in this clash.

UFC Fight Night: Ailín Pérez vs. Darya Zheleznyakova

Why Bet on Ailín Pérez?

Ailin Perez is not a particularly skilled fighter, but she is a specialist and can go a long way in MMA. What she lacks in striking technique, she makes up for in tenacity and sheer grappling determination.

Her gas tank isn’t amazing, but she can be trusted to fight for your money when it matters. In a sport like WMMA, where the decisions can sometimes come down to fine margins, grit, and determination are more important than technique.

Why Bet on Darya Zheleznyakova?

We semi-jokingly hyped up Zhelezniakova for her UFC debut. That is because she caught our eye on the regional scene when we were doing tape for Melissa Mullins.

She is actually a pretty slick striker, and we were trying to concentrate on Mullins but instead found ourselves really impressed with the Russian instead. She also show some serious grappling deficiencies in that fight, which weren’t a great sign.

We don’t know too much else about her, but all we really need to know here is that she dropped a round to Montserrat Rendon by getting taken down and controlled.

She did well to find enough time on the feet to show off her superior striking, but giving up three from six takedowns and suffering almost seven minutes of control time off the back of them is a really concerning sign for someone about to face Ailin Perez.

Final Betting Analysis: Ailín Pérez vs. Darya Zheleznyakova

Perez really should roll here but her cardio is a little bit suspect sometimes. So, we think it won’t take much for Zhelezniakova to perform better than her pricetag with a good third round.

With that said, we think the Argentinian is the worthy favourite here and should be able to take the win if she works on getting the fight to the ground.

UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Victor Altamirano

Why Bet on Daniel Barez?

Daniel Barez is a really fun fighter to watch. Hell on wheels in that opening round, but for some reason he hits a very hard wall and it all gets sloppy and starts to slow down.

We’ve seen it happen in both the UFC/DWCS fights he’s had, against both Hernandez and Filho. It’s usually a pretty bad issue that fighters never seem to fix – see Daniel Lacerda, Alex Hernandez etc.

Why Bet on Victor Altamirano?

Victor Altamirano is kind of the complete opposite really. He’s not threatening at all, but he’s reliable to remain competitive and stay in the fight.

This fight has similar tones to a few of Altamirano’s other fights. Namely, his bouts with Daniel Lacerda and Vinicius Salvador, guys that are hell on wheels for five minutes but then very beatable afterwards.

Altamirano did a great job of managing distance and mixing in some takedowns in both fights, just to elongate that first round and reduce his opponent’s dangerousness.

Final Betting Analysis: Daniel Barez vs. Victor Altamirano

Barez is much more effective than Lacerda and Salvador though, so we don’t really think Altamirano is going to find it so easy to coast his way through the early goings.

But he is a tough Mexican, and we’ll give his chin the benefit of the doubt, as well as his submission defence. It will be a sketchy few minutes for him, but if he makes it to that stool in the second round, he’s in a decent position for a very winnable fight.

To his credit, Barez does put on a decent display for someone so tired, but he does regress significantly to the point where we would expect Altamirano to beat him in his tired state.

UFC Fight Night: Nora Cornolle vs. Jaqueline Cavalcanti

Why Bet on Nora Cornolle?

Personally, we think Cornolle is about to be heavily overrated by the MMA betting community because she looked good in that win over Mullins. We still don’t think she is that good of a fighter. She struggled with Joselyne Edwards in her debut, and got a very fortunate decision in her home country.

We can discredit Cornolle all we like, but she’s been the far superior striker in both of her UFC appearances, and it’s the grappling that is going to cost her long term.

Why Bet on Jaqueline Cavalcanti?

Cavalcanti delivered exactly as one would have expected her to on that 30-27 Nunes scorecard. That kind of striking style is going to be a tough one to beat this low down in the division.

Jaqueline Cavalcanti, for as much as we like her, has not shot a takedown in the UFC yet, and we don’t think she will here.

Final Betting Analysis: Nora Cornolle vs. Jaqueline Cavalcanti

Cavalcanti had the distance advantage over Nunes, so the strikes weren’t even. Still, against Cornolle we would expect both women to still land a respectable number of strikes against each other, with it being difficult to differentiate between them when they’re equally weak.

However, the defensive work of Cavalcanti should be enough to see her win this one, but the odds are quite small to make a good profit.

UFC Fight Night: Bolaji Oki vs. Chris Duncan

Why Bet on Bolaji Oki?

Bolaji Oki is a decent striker with good footwork and timing. He had a UFC debut win, but it came against a guy with no previous UFC experience.

In short, he’s fought on DWCS twice. From skim-viewing the Cuamba fight, we wasn’t really all that impressed. He just felt tentative and didn’t offer much else than a jab.

Why Bet on Chris Duncan?

Chris Duncan is a tough brawler and this presents an interesting clash of styles. But he is a guy we’ve always had a low opinion of. His path to the UFC came from snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against a superior fighter.

He got a mediocre win against Omar Morales, beat the very underwhelming Yanal Ashmouz, and then he showed his true colours against Manuel Torres.

Final Betting Analysis: Bolaji Oki vs. Chris Duncan

Oki has more athletic potential as a fighter and Duncan might be a tough matchup for him. However, if Oki fights intelligently on the feet and avoids a firefight in the pocket, he should be able to outland more strikes than Duncan.

We don’t expect this fight to be the one to hype the whole arena up, but maybe the raw exchanges might do it for the French crowd.

Moicano vs. Saint-Denis Betting Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis

Imavov vs. Allen Betting Pick: Nassourdine Imanov

Gomis vs. Brito Betting Pick: Joanderson Brito

Jousset vs. Battle Betting Pick: Bryan Battle

Charriere vs. Miranda Betting Pick: Morgan Charriere

Ziam vs. Frevola Betting Pick: Matt Frevola

Cutelaba vs. Erslan Betting Pick: Ion Cutelava

Sy vs. Woon Jung Betting Pick: Oumar Sy

Klein vs. Roberts Betting Pick: Ludovit Klein

Lapilus vs. Morales Betting Pick: Taylor Lapilus

Pérez vs. Zheleznyakova Betting Pick: Ailin Perez

Barez vs. Altamirano Betting Pick: Victor Altamirano

Cornolle vs. Cavalcanti Betting Pick: Jaqueline Cavalcanti

Oki vs. Duncan Betting Pick: Bolaji Oki