The UFC makes its way back to Las Vegas as they prepare to hit us with another Fight Night, with things cooling down after the return of Brandon Moreno and the recent UFC 308.
This time, we get a fight between a seasoned veteran, Neil Magny, and a rising talent in Carlos Prates, who will give us an entertaining main event in the Welterweight Division.
The co-main brings the Bantamweights to the front as we get a clash between rising stars Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj, who are likely to ignite things before the main event hits.
This fight card is filled to the brim with international talent in the second half of the event, including the five main card fights, and a lot of hungry talents looking to make their names known in the first half of this 12-fight event.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates Fight Card Odds and Picks
| Neil Magny 6.5 | Carlos Prates 1.117 |
| Ricky Turcios 3.5 | Benardo Sopaj 1.324 |
| Gerald Meerschaert 3.48 | Reinier de Ridder 1.32 |
| Luana Pinheiro 4.01 | Gillian Robertson 1.26 |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik 1.27 | Duško Todorović 3.72 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz 4.755 | Denise Gomes 1.199 |
| Cortavious Romious 2.722 | Gaston Bolaños 1.45 |
| Elizeu Zaleski 1.2 | Zach Scroggin 4.85 |
| Charles Radtke 1.61 | Matthew Semelsberger 2.292 |
| Cody Stamann 3.41 | Da’mon Blackshear 1.32 |
| Melissa Mullins 1.41 | Klaudia Syguła 2.874 |
| Tresean Gore 1.55 | Antonio Trócoli 2.428 |
| When? | Saturday, November 9th, at 4:00 pm ET, 3:00 pm CST, 2:00 pm MT, and 1:00 pm PT |
| Where? | UFC Apex, in Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Where can I watch it? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC Fight Night: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
Why Bet on Neil Magny?
Magny has become a bit of a flat fighter. Like, it seems as if competition has effectively caught up with him. One great thing about him is his cardio, and that is something we want to highlight as a potential catalyst for an upset, if Magny uses his cardio in the right way, wrestling, grinding against the cage, andneutralize the kickboxing, we are going to see a chunky upset. However, that is where the good news for Magny effectively ends.
This fight goes for 5 rounds. That caters to Magny’s outstanding cardio, and he needs to use it because if he is complacent in trading shots and taking his time with Prates, he will lose as his rival is more than comfortable enough to land dangerous Muay Thai combinations all day long.
Why Bet on Carlos Prates?
Prates seemingly have come out of nowhere, and after three straight wins, he has a Main Event spot. We love this kind of story for a fighter, but we cannot help but feel a tiny bit of concern.
Prates has significant power in everything he throws, and it’s kind of a casual power, one where he doesn’t necessarily throw hard, or load up. He just lets his hands go and his natural power does all the work, and Magny is not evasive enough on the feet to deal with that. He is not a boxer or a kickboxer, hedoesn’t have the footwork or movement to mitigate damage, he is okay at getting into a clinch and stifling the attacks, but a clinch position against a Muay Thai fighter.
Final Betting Analysis: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
On the feet, Magny stands near zero chance against Prates, and the thing that we want to point out here is the leg kick potential of the latter. Neil has horrific leg kick defense, his legs are there to be kicked, and they have become a huge, huge weakness for Magny.
There is only way to deal with Prates, wrestle or cuddle him against the fence for the five rounds, making this a boring fight but a much more winnable one for Magny, but we believe he won’t be able to do so here.
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Turcios vs. Benardo Sopaj
Why Bet on Ricky Turcios?
Turcios is something special, hedoesn’t exactly have the strong MMA fundamentals most fighters have, but he somehow made it this far in his UFC career.
He is weird, wonky, a bit of a funky fighter, and someone who is tremendously hard to get a read on. We feel like he can strike fairly well butit’s so unorthodox that you don’t know if they were intended to be effective. Still, on the plus side, he does throw attacks in the general direction of his opponent and they often land, but we justdon’t like that he can’t throw anything that looks at least normal.
On the ground, he can be rather tricky to control, or to reverse, because he’s so scrappy and so quick at throwing damage and moving position that it doesn’t give his opponent enough time to settle.
Why Bet on Benardo Sopaj?
Sopaj looked really good in his debut against Oliveira. He proved to us that he can fight through a war, and even if he does not come out on top, makes it hell for his opponents, and we love that about any fighter.
Sopaj is very well-rounded, he’s at least a lot cleaner on the feet than Turcios is, and whilst he is at a sizeable reach disadvantage, we feel as though he will be able to find the perfect timing to split the attacks of Turcios, and even maybe get a takedown to make that round look a smidge better for him because Turcios’ takedown defense is not exactly existent.
In fact, we would argue that wrestling will be the main thing that Sopaj will do. We expect him to get those takedowns because they were so effective when Raul Rosas Jr did them, and Rosas Jr. is someone whose wrestling comes in bunches but with a bit of a roughness in between.
As long as Sopaj is able to at least throw out volume and activity with the takedowns, we expect Turcios to struggle in getting to an advantageous position.
Final Betting Analysis: Ricky Turcios vs. Benardo Sopaj
We think the best asset of Turcios that could help him a whole lot is his chaos, his unorthodox attacks are ridiculously hard to prepare for, and that will always be something that will help him succeed in his fights. However, if Sopaj manages to find calm within that chaos, we struggle to see Turcios pull ahead in the scorecards or statistics.
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Reinier de Ridder
Why Bet on Gerald Meerschaert?
Meerschaert is a very one-trick pony, and that’s his BJJ. He is unbelievably good on the ground, and we can’t help but think that he’s going to rely on that skill set to win.
Now, we must point out with some mild concern that De Ridder is going to look for a sloppy takedown that will possibly lead to a guillotine attempt from GM3, as he gets caught in that position sometimes.
Why Bet on Reinier de Ridder?
De Ridder has built a career on his submission capabilities, Even if he has a rather one-dimensional skill set similar to GM3, we believe that he is a lot more aggressive and well-rounded on the ground.
He is also a much longer fighter so he will have no issue in positioning himself in a high post from which punches can rain down.
However, with that said, if anyone is comfortable on the ground, comfortable losing until he decides to win somehow, it’s GM3. That is more than enough for us to be slightly concerned about the debut of one of the biggest signings in recent years.
Final Betting Analysis: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Reinier de Ridder
De Ridder is not to be messed with, we cannot see any clear way for GM3 to win this fight outside of a submission on the ground. However, that’s precisely where Reinier has done his best work, so we genuinely don’t know if Meerschaert will be able to pull off a submission win as he did in the past two fights, or if he will drown in the astronomical pressure and pace that his rival is so damn great at.
We expect De Ridder to absolutely destroy GM3 for as long as he is in top control. That guillotine is truly the only primary danger for De Ridder, and we can almost guarantee thatit will be locked in the first round.
UFC Fight Night: Luana Pinheiro vs. Gillian Robertson
Why Bet on Luana Pinheiro?
During her winning streak, Pinheiro was a bit of a dangerous force on the ground.It was clear that she had a preference in where the fight took place, and did whatever she needed to do to get the fight to the ground so that she could implement her grappling.
However, we are quite unimpressed by her wins. Her only clean one was against Sam Hughes, and that’s not exactly a great win, that’s like tutorial levels.
Pinheiro is very one-dimensional. Her striking is pretty concerning but we suppose it’s fine cause her ground game is relatively good.
Now, the relatively good news for her is that her Judo throws are going to be in full play because Robertson likes to look for takedowns in a traditional way. Whether it’s body locks or hip attacks, the perfect counter to a lot of that is a hip toss and Pinheiro can do those really well.
Why Bet on Gillian Robertson?
Robertson has been a dog when it comes to fights, and we don’t even know if we’re using that term correctly. However, whenever she fights, she is able to pull through serious adversity and get a win through submissions. She is a girl-boss on the ground and we think that’s what invites the most intrigue about this fight.
The recipe here is to control the clinch because that position is exactly where Pinheiro gets her takedowns from. As long as Robertson is aware of the setups, she will remain in full control of her ability to get that takedown the way she wants, instead of having to battle for a position on the ground after getting hip-thrown.
The other thing that has really stood out to us in terms of Robertson’s evolution as a fighter is the fact that she’s more comfortable throwing strikes on the ground. Her ground and pound against Waterson-Gomez was incredible, and it could very well be a massive key in defeating or even finishing Pinheiro.
Final Betting Analysis: Luana Pinheiro vs. Gillian Robertson
Both fighters’ grappling is what makes this fight rather interesting because Robertson is an absolute OG when it comes to wrestling and BJJ. She is fantastic on the ground and we can’t wait to see how her evolution as a fighter is going to look when Luana takes this fight to the ground.
We got Robertson winning this one. She has become such a remarkable fighter that we can’t wait to see the changes and improvements she’s made in this camp.
UFC Fight Night: Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Duško Todorović
Why Bet on Mansur Abdul-Malik?
Abdul-Malik is a first-round fighter. There is no clear way for us to say how good he will be in the second or third round despite the fact that he won his DWCS fight in the second round. One fight is not enough of a sample size to feel comfortable about his stamina.
Abdul-Malik is a ferocious finisher, he has power in his hands that is more than enough to touch the chin of Todorovic, someone who is historically very chinny.
Outside of Abdul-Malik’s heavy hands and incredible ferocity early in the fight, he is still a rather big unknown.
Why Bet on Duško Todorović?
Todorovic is coming off a knee injury just a little over a year ago, and we are very hypercritical of knee injuries. We believe they are career-defining injuries and we cannot imagine him coming into this fight feeling fully okay.
First, Todorovic is a kicker who often uses a lot of footwork and movement to keep at kicking range, so the more Adbul-Malik pressures, the more we are likely to see him just be on the retreat. That alone is a concern even from a judging point of view as they score aggression favourably.
We don’t think Abdul-Malik throws many leg kicks, but if he were to, it would only damage Todorovics’ leg even more. Still, it is hard to know much about Mansur outside of his fantastic punching power and incredible aggression, and honestly, we think that’s enough for him to reach the chin of Todorovic and make it hell for him.
Final Betting Analysis: Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Duško Todorović
Abdul-Maliks style of throwing bombs and moving forward is pretty much perfect when fighting Todorovic, as that has been a bit of his weakness since his style is rather kick-heavy.It’s hard to kick off the back foot on retreat.
If Todorovic survives the first round, we expect Abdul-Malik to slow down and then we could see a potential upset coming, but we are heavily leaning towards the latter just finding that sledgehammer early in the fight.
UFC Fight Night: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Denise Gomes
Why Bet on Karolina Kowalkiewicz?
Kowalkiewicz had a brief amount of success when she came back to full-time fighting not too long ago, and she maintained a streak for a fair bit. However, all of that momentum came crashing down when she lost to Lucindo.
Karolina is a well-rounded fighter who is fairly capable wherever the fight takes place, but we think she’s biting more than she can chew with a fight against a powerhouse like Gomes.
Kowalkiewicz is, thankfully, a relatively intelligent fighter. If she needs to wrestle, she will, and we suspect that is going to be her primary way to win this fight because Gomes doesn’t have the best takedown defense.
Why Bet on Denise Gomes?
Gomes has had relatively strong performances in her career, with her KO win over Jauregui being her biggest by far. We cannot understate how much her power can change the momentum of a fight.
However, as with any power puncher, there’s a weakness, and that weakness is her grappling and takedown defense. We can’t help but think that she will be tested in that department because Kowalkiewicz isn’t stupid enough to not wrestle if she’s losing on the feet.
We think Gomes is going to be able to at least stuff a few of Kowalkiewicz’s takedowns. Especially, if they are desperation shots. She managed to stuff 20 or so takedowns from Moura, wecan’t see how she can’t do the same against someone like Kowalkiewicz who might feel the power on the feet and shoot sloppily.
Final Betting Analysis: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Denise Gomes
Kowalkiewicz will have to take this fight to the ground to win because we don’t think she will fare too well against someone younger and more explosive.
We can’t help but think Gomes’ more significant and powerful singular shots will make Kowalkiewicz a bit more hesitant in throwing anything back. She already has the perfect counter, her power.
UFC Fight Night: Cortavious Romious vs. Gaston Bolaños
Why Bet on Cortavious Romious?
Romious is excellent on the ground. He likes to snatch up armbars but is also very good at remaining calm and slowly progressing through positions.
His takedown defense is excellent. He is so quick to lower his base and dig the underhooks, although we think that his opponent on DWCS made this takedown easier because Imperato was pulling guard somewhat.
One thing we love about Cortavious is his southpaw attacks, his left-side body kick, and his thunderous flurries. Even if we don’t think that Romious being a southpaw is a major challenge for Bolanos, given he has fought Aaron Phillips, we believe that no matter what transpires on the feet or the ground, Romious is going to be chasing the finish.
On the ground, he is quick to switch submission attempts. He’s very comfortable in any position and his cardio looks wicked enough to keep up a certain amount of activity on the ground without tiring out in the next round.
Why Bet on Gaston Bolaños?
Bolanos has solid fundamentals when it comes to an MMA fighter. His striking is great, he is able to switch stance which opens up different variations of an attack that comes from different angles, but most importantly, he has the length on the feet to make this a rather challenging fight for Romious.
Gaston is easy to pressure, and if he backs up to the cage that only makes him panic a bit more. Romious pace and that grappling is all going to pay off.
However, we will not fully count him out with his kickboxing capabilities, because his rival is very hittable at times.
Final Betting Analysis: Cortavious Romious vs. Gaston Bolaños
On the feet, Romious can get a bit too wild with an unbalanced stance, but we expect the aggression to be overwhelming.
Cortavious needs to close the distance to land his strikes, and whilst Bolanos is good at long-range attacks, we expect to see Romious’ blitz during an orthodox head-kick attempt. That would unbalance Gaston enough for his rival to capitalize on that off-balance attack.
UFC Fight Night: Elizeu Zaleski vs. Zach Scroggin
Why Bet on Elizeu Zaleski?
Zaleski is someone who is ridiculously hard to finish and also pretty hard to fight. He is well-rounded and has the perfect mix of unorthodox offensive attacks as well as solid MMA fundamentals.It’s fair to say that he is past his prime, but he has always been a relatively strong competitor.
Elizeu’s striking is by far his strong suit. He has a wide variety of techniques that he relies on andthey come from any angle possible. Since he’s fighting someone who’s a lot taller than himself, we suspect that Scroggin’s chin is there to be hit with some thunderous overhands. That’s the biggest weapon we can see landing.
Why Bet on Zach Scroggin?
Scroggin is undefeated, but that doesn’t mean much when your opponents are mostly cans, including someone who had a beer belly and looked terrible.
We cannot explain to you how narrow Scroggin’s path to victory is this weekend. He would need to pull off something amazing, miraculous even, in order to get a win over Zaleski, and we don’t know how he’s going to do it.
Final Betting Analysis: Elizeu Zaleski vs. Zach Scroggin
We think Zaleski’s wrestling and grappling could also come into play as Scroggin isn’t quite ready for a fight having taken this on short notice. So, if Elizeu can take this fight to the ground and overwhelm his rival, testing his cardio and even sapping it, we think he should be able to pull off a win.
Short-notice fights like this, by default, always make the one who is more prepared the better fighter overall. In this case, with Zaleski preparing to fight Dalby, someone who is as tough as they come and has incredible cardio, we think he has all the advantages. He was getting ready to fight a veteran who is not easy to handle, nowhe’s taking on a newcomer who could be easy to control.
UFC Fight Night: Charles Radtke vs. Matthew Semelsberger
Why Bet on Charles Radtke?
Radtke is coming off a tough KO by Prates, but we think we are starting to see some solid work from him in terms of his career. The good news is that he is well rounded and his wrestling will be a key to victory during this fight.
We don’t know where his ceiling is because he hasn’t been tested properly by a properexperienced fighter. We think that’s where Semelsberger fits perfectly into things.
Radtke has a fantastic left hook, and Semelsberger isn’texactly the slickest striker on the feet. He can scrap buthe’s always there to be hit, so if Charles is able to be the first and last to strike in a sequence, he should be able to find that left hook.
Why Bet on Matthew Semelsberger?
Semelsberger was on a tear during the COVID era of the UFC. He was hyped by the media, andloved by the commentators, but since losing his last three fights, we feel like a lot of the aura disappeared.
Semelsbergers BJJ is pretty solid. It has been his key to victory for as long as he has been in the UFC, and we feel he will rely on it this weekend in order to stem the aggression and that dangerous left hook that Radtke is so great at throwing.
We are unsure what the ground game is going to look like once both fighters hit the mat. However, if Radtke is the one to initiate the takedown and if he remains outside of any precarious submission position, he should be able to glide on top and get some decent control time.
Final Betting Analysis: Charles Radtke vs. Matthew Semelsberger
We don’t think that Semelsberger will be able to improve his takedown defense enough to stop the takedowns from Radtke. Now, we are still incredibly unsure about the latter.
We think Charles has a fairly decent chance at defeating Matthew, whose only real way to win is to grapple, and we think the former’s counter-grappling could make it a bit more difficult.
The striking exchanges are what we are looking forward to the most, though, as we feel like Radtke has enough power on the feet to make Semelsberger freeze up a little bit.With that said, Matthew is pretty actionable when it comes to firing right back and that makes this fight more interesting.
UFC Fight Night: Cody Stamann vs. Da’mon Blackshear
Why Bet on Cody Stamann?
Stamann is on a downward trend now consideringhe’s out of his athletic peak and is coming off back-to-back losses against Lapilus and Silva de Andrade. That is relatively tough competition, so it’s fair to say that this is a fairer fight for him, but still a bit of an uphill.
Stamann is a strong wrestler. It’s his entire skillset and he uses it well, with a lot of forward pressure, level changes, and takedown attempts to overwhelm his opponent.
We firmly that his takedowns or level changes could open up Blackshear to overhands or explosive flurries if his rival’s positioning is close to the fence.
Why Bet on Da’mon Blackshear?
Blackshear hasn’t had the best track record in the UFC, and with only two recent wins over Lacerda and Wineland, it’s very difficult to gauge whether he has reached the highest in his career or if he is still improving.
Either way, he has a bit of a tough cookie ahead of him. We are still in the mindset that Blackshear is going to be very defensive, utilize his range, and reach to slowly chip at Stamann. Once the latter eventually gets into a takedown position, Da’mon might snatch the neck up for a guillotine or just defend the takedown.
We think Blackshear’s Takedown defense will frustrate Stamann and make him a bit more desperate for a takedown, and that will open him up for his neck to be snatched.
Final Betting Analysis: Cody Stamann vs. Da’mon Blackshear
Now, the big problem for Stamann in this fight is the massive size difference.He is facing someone who has an8-inch reach advantage and even though he can potentially weave into range and land some boxing combinations, that advantage, if used properly, will be a tough puzzle to figure out.
Stamann’s wrestling will always be his number one thing to do. Volume, level changes, and aggression are three things that Blackshear needs to contend with and find a perfect counter. We believe the length is going to be the primary advantage that Da’mon has over Cody.
The longer this fight stays on the feet, the more comfortable Blackshear could be just throwing jabs and teeps.
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Klaudia Syguła
Why Bet on Melissa Mullins?
Mullins is coming off a tough KO loss against Nora Cornolle, and that was after she missed weight. However, it was an anomalous weight miss for her, so we can give her a pass for that.
Mullins has always had reasonably good takedowns and wrestling. They are her main weapons and skills when she fights and, for the most part, she has used them effectively.
There should be no real mention of Mullins striking as what she does stems from her ground control, as on the feet, she is rather mediocre and not very technical. It is enough to mix it up but not to give her any due respect as a well-rounded MMA fighter. She is a wrestler and grappler, nothing more, nothing less.
We suspect that she will have success transitioning from the stand-up to the ground game. Her takedowns are rather decent and even more soher reversals.
First, her striking defense is extremely simple. She likes to be out of range for any attack, and that’s not exactly a great look because she gets caught by simple stuff often.
Mullins always looks like she’s looking at one spot, her opponent’s head. That breaks a simple rule of striking, you don’t look at the head, you look at the chest. This could be nothing andwe could be very nitpicky but we don’t trust that kind of simplistic approach.
Why Bet on Klaudia Syguła?
Syguła is a question mark for us. She seemingly came out of nowhere, with no reasonable background that’s worth looking at. She’s hopped around a few promotions to varying degrees of competition and whilstshe’s on a strong streak, we question whether she’s UFC-ready.
Klaudia looks to be a decent striker, that is, her striking is her only tool in the arsenal. She is good at throwing out with volume on the feet but she looks sloppy doing so, and likes to wave her hands in a way that looks like a strike butthey’re really panicked shots to keep her opponent away.There is no solid flow or technique, just strikes, things you would see someone do against a heavy bag.
She has a narrow stance, and we feel like it would open her up to takedowns. That is a dangerous thing, as Mullins will be the more advantageous fighter when it comes to wrestling and grappling.
Final Betting Analysis: Melissa Mullins vs. Klaudia Syguła
We got Mullins winning this one, and her only way to win is to wrestle. It is as simple as that, this looks like a wrestler versus striker kind of fight, and we need to back someone who’s been in the UFC, regardless of how terrible their performances have been.
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Antonio Trócoli
Why Bet on Tresean Gore?
When we see Gore, we might say that he is a bit of a failed product of TUF. He has only won once during his three post-TUF fights, and that win was against Josh Fremd, not exactly the strongestwin on anyone’s record.
We could say that he is a rather physical fighter. Tresean uses a lot of explosive movements and attacks that sometimes work for him, but at times don’t, and we are unsure if he is going to be too effective against someone like Trocoli. The latter is a rather terrible fighter himself, but has physical advantages such as height and reach, and often that is enough to neutralize a low-level fighter skill advantage.
Gore is rough on the feet. In fact, it is difficult to gauge how good he is on the ground given that he has not thrown enough takedowns for us to analyse. From what we can see, he can punch and kick. That’s all, nothing too technical.
Why Bet on Antonio Trócoli?
Trócoli is outright terrible, and even though he showed some heart as he marched down Shara Magomedov eating fists, we still learned nothing about him. Even before that fight, we thought that he was terrible.
The fact of the matter is that Trócoli has yet to show any reason that he belongs in the UFC.We think that he can make this a tough fight for Gore, but the fight IQ and talent shared between these two fighters don’t even belong on StreetBeefs.
Final Betting Analysis: Tresean Gore vs. Antonio Trócoli
Gore’sstrongest asset as a fighter is, by far, his wrestling. He is a better wrestler and grappler than a striker, and that could be enough to deal with the physical advantages of Trócoli. However, we are cautious in saying that it will be enough to win the fight.
We believe that Gore will end up being the mildly better fighter, but we also think that Trócoli would make a decent alt bet because we can see him getting a submission off his back if Tresean uses his wrestling.
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