The UFC is taking this upcoming fight night to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, and we are getting a rematch that was rescheduled from the middle of December to give this event it’s main fight as two strawweights go back at each other to see who is likely to be on the track to the next possible title shot.
Our main event for this Saturday night will feature Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas, who had a clash back in October 2019, and are looking to get back at it once again to see who can get some momentum as they try to work their way to a title shot.
The co-main will be a pretty fun clash in the Welterweight division, as Santiago Ponzinibio and Carlston Harris clash in a bout that is likely to end before the judges get involved, and that is likely to increase the hype before we arrive at the main event.
The other main card fights include two middle weight clashes, the first between Abdul Razak Alhassan and Cesar Almeida, and the second pits Chris Curtis against Roman Kopylov, along with a featherweight clash between the undefeated Austin Bashi and the talented Christian Rodriguez, and a welterweight bout between Punahele Solano and Uros Medic to open the main card.
The prelims are filled with a lot of international talent, which means that things are going to be quite entertaining as we coast through the eight prelims and six main card fights of this upcoming UFC fight night.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas 2 Fight Card Odds and Info
| Mackenzie Dern 2.525 | Amanda Ribas 1.554 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio 1.803 | Carlston Harris 1.995 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan 3.285 | César Almeida 1.336 |
| Chris Curtis 3.145 | Roman Kopylov 1.347 |
| Austin Bashi 1.444 | Christian Rodriguez 2.754 |
| Punahele Soriano 2.576 | Uros Medic 1.511 |
| Jose Johnson 11.488 | Felipe Bunes 2.631 |
| Marco Tulio 1.241 | Ihor Potieria 3.975 |
| Thiago Moisés 1.632 | Trey Ogden 2.284 |
| Preston Parsons 4.615 | Jacobe Smith 1.19 |
| Ernesta Kareckaite 1.414 | Nicolle Caliari 2.944 |
| Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 1.333 | Bruno Lopes 3.28 |
| Victoria Dudakova 4.74 | Fatima Kline 1.188 |
| Joe Solecki 5.51 | Nurullo Aliev 1.141 |
| When? | Saturday, January 11th, at 4:00 pm ET, 3:00 pm CST, 2:00 pm MT, and 1:00 pm PT |
| Where? | UFC Apex, in Las Vegas |
| Where can I watch it? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas
Why bet on Mackenzie Dern?
Dern is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the UFC at the moment. Any time she gets a fight to the ground and starts doing her BJJ wizardry, we hold our breath because we know she’s mere seconds away from something insane.
However, for as much as she is incredible on the ground, she falls a bit behind in other disciplines. Her striking is rather rough and her inability to wrestle is also a detriment to her, it’s something that’s holding her back greatly.
We are hopeful that we are wrong with that though, and this weekend we see an upgraded version of Dern. Historically, she has struggled to get fights to the ground, a place in which she sorely needs fights to go in order to win.
Why bet on Amanda Ribas?
Ribas has one primary way she could win this fight, and that’s to keep it standing and to be the faster striker. Amanda has always been a versatile fighter who is comfortable no matter where the fight goes, but there is little doubt in our minds that she will excel on the feet against Dern.
Dern on the ground is a nightmare for even the better grapplers in this division, so we highly doubt that Ribas is going to look for her iconic hip tosses here in this fight.
The main weapons Ribas will utilize are her blitz-like boxing and maybe some body kicks, although kicking could be a nightmare if Dern catches it and looks for a trip or a sweep.
Final Betting Analysis: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas
Dern’s single strength is where the problem lies with Ribas though because she’s a very balanced fighter. She is extremely well-rounded and has all sorts of techniques and skills in her arsenal to make this one hell of a tough fight for Dern.
We think the main thing that Dern is going to struggle with is the timing on the feet against Ribas, there’s no guide or book that can tell Dern how to handle Ribas, because the way Ribas moves, it’s like she’s dancing, light on the feet, throwing her hands around to mask the strikes, she’s great at overwhelming the senses of her opponent and making it hard to read what’s coming next.
It was was gave Ribas the first win when the two faced before, and we believe it is bound to happen once again.
UFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris
Why bet on Santiago Ponzinibbio?
Ponzinibbio is certainly past his prime by now. However, for the most part, he fights the same as he always has, high pressure, high pace, and fairly aggressive, albeit not as much as he used to be due to age and such.
Santiago Ponzinibbio will have a noticeable advantage on the feet, he has excellent striking and uses his footwork and movement to set up attacks, whenever Ponzinibbio circles away and does his little feints, you know he’s about to throw something big like a head kick or a short boxing flurry.
Ponzinibbio typically uses his wrestling during his fights, although we do think that it would be a bit of a dangerous thing to do since Harris is a rather active grappler.
Why bet on Carlston Harris?
Harris is a bit of a straight forward fighter, he wants to take the fight to the ground, wrap up the neck and make his opponent tap or go to sleep.
Ponzinibbio may be a bit of a handful on the feet, but if he does try to get a takedown, that would be Harris’ first chance to lock up a submission, as was clearly showcased when he snatched the neck of Jeremiah Wells.
However, with that said, Harris does not have the best striking defence, nor offence, his output leaves a whole lot to the imagination and that is the exact thing that would make Ponzinibbio a major threat.
Final Betting Analysis: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris
Ponzinibbio’s power in his hands is going to be a great equalizer in this fight. We genuinely believe that the longer the fight remains on the feet, the more comfortable and confident he will become in throwing more volume.
The good thing about Ponzinibbio’s pressure is that since he’s so forward-moving, it would make Harris initiate takedowns off the back foot, and it’s a fair bit easier to defend takedowns as an aggressor than it is as someone being pressured.
We do not think Harris stands much of a chance against Ponzinibbio unless it’s a very well timed strike, or during a chaotic flurry, because whilst Santiago is still good at throwing out volume, he has slowed down quite a bit, but we believe the veteran will be taking the victory.
UFC Fight Night: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. César Almeida
Why bet on Abdul Razak Alhassan?
Alhassan is someone who is ridiculously hard to get a read of only because of how the UFC treats him, and that sounds weird, but the fights’ and opponents he takes on are either miles ahead of him competition-wise, or they completely overwhelm him from a stylistic standpoint. There’s never a really fair fight, until this one we suppose.
Alhassan is a powerful striker, that much is rather obvious, but he also has a solid Judo base, and we think that’s going to be key in handling Almeida.
On the feet, we think it’s going to be a power versus skill deal, where Alhassan will try to end the fight quickly through a short burst of aggressive output, or strong singular attacks. If that fails, he could, at least, crash into Almeida, lock up a clinch, and then do his Judo thing.
Why bet on César Almeida?
Almeida has come into the MMA game relatively late into his combat sports career. However, so far it’s fair to say that he’s done really well in adapting to different styles, and we have been seeing him evolve as a fighter in the short time he’s been here.
Almeida is a fantastic kickboxer, a multiple-time kickboxing champion in numerous organizations and competitions, he is as good as they get. This is why we think Alhassan is going to most likely use his grappling to get a win here. With that said, Almeida has soaked up information like a sponge, he has very good instincts to get back to the feet and he conserves his cardio well enough to allow himself to explode back to his feet after each attempt, so he’s never gassed out after getting taken down like how a typical kickboxer might be.
Final Betting Analysis: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. César Almeida
Almeida isn’t exactly trained in Judo defense, he’s trained in traditional takedown defense, single legs, double legs, getting up from the ground.
Judo is a whole different animal to deal with and, if Alhassan can assert himself into this fight and use his throws to sweep Almeida off his feet and slam him into the ground, we think Alhassan has a reasonably solid chance at winning this fight.
Almeida wants to keep this fight standing, there’s no doubt about that, but we think there will be an eventual takedown/trip attempt by Alhassan. However, he adapts well and we believe that he is going to find the finish during the final round.
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov
Why bet on Chris Curtis?
Curtis is a fun fighter to watch, but after he loses, because boy does he tweet like crazy. However, In the cage he is rather intelligent when it comes to his approach to fighting, adapts to his opponents style, and his takedown defence and wrestling ability allows him to match what his opponent is doing on the ground. He is exceptionally well trained.
The problem with him is that, whilst he’s well-rounded, he doesn’t exactly excel in one particular field of combat. He’s a jack of all trades, master of none, and while that’s great to have as a top-tier athlete, a specialist fighter will find a way to expose someone like him.
Curtis is great at shelling up, absorbing attacks and then immediately firing back. Expect him to try and find counters when Kopylov extends his combinations, we expect him to also land some body shots, a straight punch at range to the body, and level change followed by digging to the body in the closer ranges.
Why bet on Roman Kopylov?
Kopylov will have a slight edge on the feet in this fight, in our opinion. That is due to the fact that he has an extensive background in combat sambo, and when you watch him fight you can just see how disciplined he is.
Roman rarely makes mistakes on the feet. He’s calculated, he targets the right part of the body to subsequently open up more targets for further attacks, he’s an assassin and someone who is highly capable slowly dismantling the near impenetrable guard of Curtis. He is likely to do that by being a tricky southpaw, and reading the fairly obvious attack pattern from Curtis.
Final Betting Analysis: Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov
Curtis sometimes gets frustrated in the middle of a fight, and we can see that he will get frustrated in this fight as Kopylov is a far more clinical striker. So, he is likely to eat a lot of shots and perhaps not have a whole lot to answer for it.
Chris has gorgeous boxing, don’t get me wrong, his boxing fundamentals are fantastic. However, his high guard leaves his body exposed and you must know that Kopylov will blast the body with kicks early to drop those hands.
Curtis is quite good at being a bladed stance boxer, he utilises the jab and lead hand distraction relatively well. When that lead hand is thrown out there, his head is somewhat exposed to a power side hook or straight. We think that’s what Kopylov will aim to do, lure out a lead hand attack, and then follow with a counter left hook or straight.
If that fails him, Kopylov is also excellent at wrestling when the situation calls for it and that’s also going to be a potential problem for Curtis.
With more paths to victory, we expect Kopylov to come out on top in this fight.
UFC Fight Night: Austin Bashi vs. Christian Rodriguez
Why Bet on Austin Bashi?
Bashi is coming off a fantastic submission win on DWCS over Dorian Ramos, and the most impressive thing about him is his activity. His first amateur bout was at the start of Feb in 2020, that’s 5 years ago, and he’s had 13 pro fights.
Bashi’s skillset is very wrestling focused. He constantly goes for takedowns, and moves at such a frenetic pace that we could see him overwhelming a lot of his opponents in the future.
However, with that said, there’s a tinge of nervous or anxious energy in the first round where he’s throwing everything. Nothing but heavy swinging punches up top followed by rapid level changes, so many different things that are used to overwhelm his opponent. Even if it looks messy at times, its effective, and it leads to his opponent having slight openings in which he can successfully get a takedown and a solid holding position.
One thing we love about Bashi is how sticky he is to his opponents. He doesn’t like separating or creating distance during the grappling moments. He’s so good at staying close and just being a heavy, heavy object for his opponents to hold.
Why Bet on Christian Rodriguez?
Rodriguez is probably going to get sick and tired of these wrestlers real soon. He’s fought some incredible wrestlers like Rosas Jr and Isaac Dulgarian, so he no doubt is prepared for those kinds of fights, but now it’s straight back into the fire after coming off a tough submission loss against Erosa.
The great thing about Rodriguez is that his cardio is fantastic. He can swim with the sharks come out on top and handle the insane pace that wrestlers often utilize in their fights. However, with every new opponent, comes new challenges, and we think one of the most dangerous things about Bashi are the unknowns, and the fact that he’s one of the younger prospects to join the UFC. So, he’s going to come out with extra fire under him, wanting to continue that quick rise to the top.
Final Betting Analysis: Austin Bashi vs. Christian Rodriguez
Bashi will be testing Rodriguez’s takedown defense and fortitude during this fight.
Rodriguez has been here before though, he’s fought young wrestlers. He’s trained for many of these fights and has consistently gotten better because of that, and we genuinely think that he’s going to do just fine in this fight.
Once things get to the second round, we expect Rodriguez to keep pushing forward on the judges’ cards and lock in the victory.
UFC Fight Night: Punahele Soriano vs. Uros Medic
Why bet on Punahele Soriano?
Soriano is a tough one to speak positively about, because whilst he has been in some incredible fights in the UFC, he has also been on the receiving end of some disgusting beatdowns. Its never a great thing to see someone tough it out because their chin is so durable.
Because Soriano’s chin is so durable, he doesn’t exactly use a lot of defensive layers to avoid damage. There’s never a lot of footwork or head movement, his shell, whilst existent, is only there so he can return fire immediately.
One thing that will always be on the side of Soriano is his tenacity. He is in the fight until he is not and he will fire back with everything in his gas tank for as long as the fight goes on.
Why bet on Uros Medic?
Medic is one hell of a fighter to keep an eye on, and a win over Soriano is going to look pretty damn good on his record. He is a sniper when he fights, his distance punches and teeps to the body are beautiful to watch, and they all come from his footwork and his ability to find angles.
Speaking of finding angles, his knockout over Means is evidence of how quickly he thinks and plans an attack. Means dipped to Medic’s right side, reset, then dipped again to that same side, only for Medic to find the chin with a picture-perfect left uppercut.
That is what Medic must use, his visual acuity as well as his timing, because Soriano does have slight defensive issues and if his head is exposed to a solid strike, you bet Uros will fire off that missile of a left hand and make it land.
Final Betting Analysis: Punahele Soriano vs. Uros Medic
To circle back to the fact that Soriano gets punched quite a lot, that doesn’t bode too well considering the incredibly high accuracy of Medic’s striking, as well as the fact that his punches are also quite heavy. One mild saving grace for Punahele is his wrestling background, and we suspect when the heat’s turned up, he will rely on takedowns and control to try and reign in Medic.
One slight concern for Medic is his cardio. He has never taken a fight to the distance, and whilst that’s amazing to hear, it’s also perhaps a bit worrying if Soriano utilizes his wrestling and grinds out a decision win, because that’s the only way we can really see Uros losing.
Still, we think that Medic will be finding the hit and landing the KO during this fight, posibly around the halfway point.
UFC Fight Night: Jose Johnson vs. Felipe Bunes
Why bet on Jose Johnson?
Johnson is coming off a win-loss cycle, with his most recent fight ending in a defeat against Asu Almabayev. It was a pretty rough fight for Jose because he had to contend with a heavy-pressure wrestler who managed to control him for 11 minutes, so we never really got to see a lot of what he prepared during that camp.
Johnson has always been quite a slick striker. His reach and length as a fighter have been quite a challenge for some of his opponents to figure out. While his weakness is clearly his counter-wrestling, he often has the right tools in the arsenal to make wrestling difficult to initiate as his opponents have to deal with the strikes before getting into a takedown position.
Now, Johnson is incredibly tall for the division, and that gives him a unique advantage in landing knees up the middle or in the clinch quite effectively. The great thing about Johnson is that, due to his training camp for Almabayev, his counter wrestling should have improved, and even more so during this camp as he tidied things up.
Why bet on Felipe Bunes?
Bunes has only one fight in the UFC, and whilst it was a loss against Joshua Van, he no doubt has gained a whole lot of experience as Van is one of the most dangerous Flyweights at the moment.
Felipe is a well-rounded fighter who is quick to switch up styles and get takedowns if he needs to, but the one thing we want to point out here is his guard. He’s quite good at covering up loosely on the upper torso and allowing mitigation of damage to the head, but that leaves his body exposed to attacks. We genuinely think that, early on, if Johnson is smart, he will employ teeps to the body to lower those hands before he starts using his boxing strikes to attack the head.
Final Betting Analysis: Jose Johnson vs. Felipe Bunes
This time around, we could potentially see a similar challenge for Johnson as Bunes is quite grappling-focused when he fights, although maybe not to the same extent or skill level that Almabayev is.
We expect a levelled up Johnson, someone who can deal with grapplers a lot better now, and most of all, a lot of activity in the clinch. His knees are incredibly active and great at dealing damage to the body of his opponents.
Bunes has decent boxing. He does start with the lead hand and that could be a bit easy to read, but the problem that we see him running into is giving in to the pressure of Johnson. He does back up quite a bit and if Jose does use his reach effectively, he could somewhat suffocate the movement of Felipe by simply using his jab, keeping the long weapons active and making sure that Bunes’ back is against the cage.
This all leads to Johnson getting his hand raised at the end of the fight.
UFC Fight Night: Marco Tulio vs. Ihor Potieria
Why bet on Marco Tulio?
Tulio has been a force of destruction during his rise to his DWCS victory, defeating many of his opponents through clean knockouts that stemmed from short, sharp combinations on the feet. He is incredibly dangerous on the feet.
Tulio comes from Chute Boxe, one of the most prominent gyms in Brazil, so you know he’s getting some top-tier training. It shows when he fights, everything is smooth and well-timed. We mean, he’s coming up against Potieria, someone who isn’t particularly well-skilled, so we just expect him to do exceptionally well.
Why bet on Ihor Potieria?
Potieria is a difficult one to really get excited for because, time after time, his chin has been tested and his neck has been strangled. There have been so many moments during his UFC career in which he looked reasonably good, but also quite flawed, as his chin durability is quite a concern. His wrestling, whilst explosive, can only come in short bursts as his cardio is not built for takedown after takedown.
Potieria’s pattern seems to be quite repetitious as well, he has the same stance, the same look, and whilst his strikes may be slightly varied. They all start the same, through a lead hand attack. Oftentimes he does try a single left straight or something along those lines, but it’s far and few between compared to his flurries.
Final Betting Analysis: Marco Tulio vs. Ihor Potieria
All of Tulio’s strengths do not bode very well against someone like Potieria, who seems to only be accepting fights because he needs the money or something like that.
With that said though, as with any fight that involves two people who can throw a punch and kick, there could be a moment amongst the chaos in which Potieria rocks and wobbles the newcomer. However, since Potieria’s defense is typically based on movement and nothing else, we don’t think that Tulio is going to have many problems finding his target.
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moisés vs. Trey Ogden
Why bet on Thiago Moisés?
Moises has been an incredibly dangerous fighter who is very well-rounded, but really, really excels on the ground. That’s going to be the most fascinating thing in this fight since Ogden is very wrestling-heavy when he fights.
Moises has been in the cage with some of the most dangerous Lightweights on the roster. While he has yet to be in the title picture, he has been a perfect gatekeeper for the division.
One thing that we feel is a bit underestimated is his striking ability, he is quite diverse in the way he can deal damage on the feet. He is a little bit standard at times, but his attacks come from both stances or both sides, so if Ogden is unable to get the takedown, he will have to contend with someone who might not be very volume-heavy with his striking but still packs quite a punch.
Why bet on Trey Ogden?
Ogden is perhaps one of the more unique challenges for Moises because he is quite one-dimensional with his skill set. He’s a submission specialist and thrives in the most gritty fights.
Now, the interesting thing, at least from a statistical point of view, is that Ogden has never been taken down before, but Moises has. We cannot help but think that Ogden will end up in top control because he is so good at getting takedowns.
Our concern is if he is able to keep up with the grappling ability of Moises. We genuinely think that the latter will look very comfortable on the ground, but as with any wrestler versus grappler fight, the wrestler tends to be the one in most control.
Final Betting Analysis: Thiago Moisés vs. Trey Ogden
Any moment on the ground with Moises is a tenacious one as his grappling is top-tier. While we think Ogden will be able to survive most submission attempts, he is still going to constantly move and adapt and switch positions.
Ogden’s grit will be very important in winning against Moises, never let him settle and calculate his next move. It needs to be nonstop action and, if anything, Ogden is certainly one of those fighters that can push that pace.
The question for this fight is whether or not Trey will be able to control his opponent, a Black Belt BJJ specialist who invites any takedown because he’s comfortable on the ground.
Is Ogden good enough at shutting down submissions from the guard? Sure, but Moises is certainly someone very, very different. And we believe that he will be looking better as the fight goes longer, and that is likely to give Thiago the victory.
UFC Fight Night: Preston Parsons vs. Jacobe Smith
Why bet on Preston Parsons?
Parsons is coming off a rather dull fight against Oban Elliott, in which whilst both fighters threw heavy and often, nothing landed effectively.
We suppose that’s what you get when two wrestlers play around on the feet. That’s essentially how Parsons fights though, he’s a heavy-volume wrestler who typically doesn’t throw much up top. He is usually straight and narrow when it comes to his game plan, constantly moving forward and hunting that takedown so he can work on controlling his opponent and maybe open them up to submission.
Parsons has never been a striker, he knows the fundamentals of MMA but overall should not be a major threat to Smith on the feet. His main asset coming into this fight is his pressure-style wrestling and sheer volume in takedown attempts. However, outside of that, he isn’t anything particularly special.
Why bet on Jacobe Smith?
Smith is definitely someone who chases action wherever the fight takes place. Whether it be on the ground or on the feet, he drives forward with incredible aggression and always chases a finish, which is why his finishing rate is so spectacularly high.
Now, whilst what we just said sounds like it’s praise, it also leads to some general concern. We wonder if he will be able to have the gas tank to keep this kind of style and pressure up for a long period of time since Parsons can be quite durable.
Six of his nine fights ended in the first round, he has gone the distance twice, and if we can reflect on his fight against Lewis on Fury FC for a moment, that bout was incredibly wrestle-heavy on both sides. There was rarely a moment of striking before someone went for another takedown, and thus 2-to 3 more minutes of nothing but tight body locks and constant positional movements.
Final Betting Analysis: Preston Parsons vs. Jacobe Smith
Parsons’ pressure is going to be the main “advantage” over Smith, and we put the advantage in quotations for a specific reason. That is simply because we believe Smith’s takedown defense is better than people expect due to training out of AKA, a gym that is stocked full of outstanding world-class wrestlers.
Smith’s fight with Fury FC had a brutal pace and he still remained the more effective wrestler who landed heavy punches in the stand-up positions despite the fatigue. If his durability is telling us anything, it’s that this fight is going to be a grueling 3 rounder with a whole lot of wrestling involved.
We believe Smith has the upper hand both in finding an early finish or grit battling it out for the long fight.
UFC Fight Night: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Nicolle Caliari
Why bet on Ernesta Kareckaite?
Kareckaite is going to have a very noticeable size advantage over Caliare. She is very, very tall and long for the division and that typically is going to present unique challenges for her opponents.
She has always been a quite visceral striker, throwing volume down range and never really giving her opponent much of a break in the action. It’s always a constant barrage of strikes that come with a whole lot of power and some safety due to her reach advantage.
The thing that we don’t quite like about Kareckaite’s striking is how she’s still a massive target for counters. She leads with her head a bit due to her height advantage, and it’s something that her previous opponent, Barbosa, somewhat exposed, and that’s just from being willing to strike against Kareckaite.
The longer this fight remains on the feet, the more confidence Kareckaite will muster, the more she will string together strong combinations, and the more comfortable she will be in the cage.
One thing that has been spoken about by others is Kareckaites’ grappling defense. She is very, very defensively sound on the ground, and part of that comes from her training, but a large portion comes from her length. The longer a fighter is, the harder it can be to lock them down in a position for a long period of time.
Why bet on Nicolle Caliari?
Nicolle Caliari is coming off a fantastic submission win on DWCS, although she won against a 35-year-old,so thatdefinitely leaves a rough mark on the result.
Caliari is a black belt in BJJ and that much was shown during her DWCS fight in which she adapted from her bottom position to find an armbar and lock that sucker in tight. However, our primary concern is her stand-up. She is great at being aggressive, but she leads with her chin and that’s a major red flag considering that Kareckaite is such a dangerous striker who is going to have a massive reach advantage over the grappler.
She looks to be your traditional Judo throwing, BJJ specialist who effectively wants nothing more than to take a fight to the ground. She is absolutely going to have to take the fight to the ground to shut down any advantage that Kareckaite has, but she needs to do it from a position that is most easily going to lead to a submission.
Final Betting Analysis: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Nicolle Caliari
Kareckaite is no doubt going to be the more effective striker in this fight. She thrives on the feet, and we suspect she is going to struggle early on in getting the defensive reads on Caliare’s takedown attempts. We think that, the longer the fight goes on, the easier it might be for Kareckaite to avoid those takedowns completely, and just use her boxing to deal damage against the submission artist.
After watching Calipari’s fight against Laframboise though, we are slightly concerned that submissions are her only way to win this fight, as she was effectively losing that first round due to being unable to keep a solid position for a long time. That armbar was a saving grace for her.
We think that Caliari will not find the same success as last time and we believe Kareckaite will be dominating the fight the longer it goes until she scores a decision victory.
UFC Fight Night: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Bruno Lopes
Why bet on Magomed Gadzhiyasulov?
Gadzhiyasulov has been a rather fun addition to the Light Heavyweight roster, using a heavy wrestling pace and outstanding kickboxing to absolutely wear down his opponents.
On the feet, Gadzhiyasulov fights really loosely on the feet, his stance is that of a traditional kickboxer but he has the speed and athleticism to go for a level change and wrestle when needed.
One major thing you will notice when you watch Gadzhiyasulov fight is that he is so quick with his kicks, his kicks are no doubt one of the strongest parts of his striking game.
However, he’s only comfortable at kicking range, because once he’s in boxing range, in which he can be in the range of receiving hooks or uppercuts, he tends to get hit a fair bit, only because his defenses are so reliant on distancing and movement.
Now, his wrestling is really, really good, his top control, his ability to maneuver on the ground to get into positions in which he can land ground and pound or sneak into a submission position is sublime, and he can do this for three rounds without much sign of fatigue.
Why bet on Bruno Lopes?
Lopes is just a brutal heavy hitter, his punching power could present some issues for Gadzhiyasulov, and whilst he doesn’t have the footwork or speed to keep up with the light footedness of Gadzhiyasulov, he has really heavy leg kicks that are going to be absolutely pivotal in taking away the mobility of the faster fighter in Gadzhiyasulov, and will ultimately allow Lopes to hunt down his target a bit easier.
Now, in terms of speed and athleticism, Gadzhiyasulov is going to be the much more mobile fighter, the one who will most likely initiate a lot of the striking sequences, and we also have a feeling that Gadzhiyasulov’s wrestling offense is only going to add to that onslaught and overwhelming activity that Lopes is going to have to worry about and try to counter.
Final Betting Analysis: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Bruno Lopes
We are intrigued to see if Gadzhiyasulov has developed some sort of leg kick defense because Lopes is unafraid of attacking the legs early, he has heavy, heavy leg kicks and his orthodox stance is perfect in possibly replicating the same damage that Ribeiro landed early in their fight in which we saw it greatly affect Gadzhiyasulov.
This is a fight between two extremely heavy-hitting Light Heavyweights who are still new to the UFC and who are trying to assert themselves in the division, so we’re likely to see some heavy, heavy clashes and excellent exchanges, resulting in some exciting moments.
The one who is most likely to come out on top here is Gadzhiyasulov due to his diverse skill set as well as his ability to mix up the styles on the fly, his takedowns and wrestling ability will most likely be the largest skill set that would lead to a victory here.
UFC Fight Night: Victoria Dudakova vs. Fatima Kline
Why bet on Victoria Dudakova?
Dudakova is a rather interesting fighter, she’s slowly becoming a very well-rounded fighter, yet we still don’t quite know if she’s a UFC-level fighter yet.
She is very uniform with her striking, it’s nothing too incredible, nor too technical, it’s just clean, standard, well-timed strikes, and for the most part, they work effectively, but when fights get a bit gritty and her opponent bites down on the mouthpiece and throws all clean logical strikes out the window, Dudakova does tend to struggle to keep up.
That last is not exactly a huge concern since Kline is mostly a very physically close ranged fighter who utilizes body lock control and wrestling to exhaust her opponent to the point where a submission may show itself.
With that said though, Dudakova isn’t just a striker, she has slowly added some wrestling instincts into her arsenal, mostly being the one to initiate takedowns, and if she fails that takedown, she’s relatively good at flowing with her opponent.
Why bet on Fatima Kline?
Kline is a tremendous wrestler who is highly capable of bullying any of her opponents, and whilst she did lose against Jasudavicius in her debut, we often say that a debut against a top talent like Jasudavicius is a gift to any newcomer as they get to experience a high level of competition.
Kline is fantastic at using her feints to mask her attacks, she’s always moving and changing her angles and overall being a highly tricky target to get a read on, and that is going to play in her favor in this fight as it’s a bit unique compared to Dudakova’s previous opponents in the UFC.
Kline is unafraid of action, she seeks to damage her opponent through boxing combinations and a very solid teep kick to the body, and since Dudakova has somewhat iffy cardio after the first half of the fight, we feel like those teep kicks are only going to accentuate that cardio problem and thus keep the momentum on Kline’s side.
Final Betting Analysis: Victoria Dudakova vs. Fatima Kline
Dudakova has a fairly solid chance to win this fight if she remains on her feet, using slick movement to keep out of range of Kline wrestling attacks and using her own long-ranged attacks to deal damage.
Since Kline is mostly a wrestler, we’ll likely see constant pressure from Kline, but we do think Dudakova is great at throwing out boxing offenses on a consistent enough basis to keep Kline somewhat at bay.
Kline’s wrestling is really, really good though, and she has the cardio to wrestle for an extended period of time, unlike Dudakova, so the longer this round goes, the better things get for Kline, and we think that this match will go to the judges scorecards and favor Fatima Kline with the victory.
UFC Fight Night: Joe Solecki vs. Nurullo Aliev
Why bet on Joe Solecki?
Solecki is coming into this fight as a late replacement fighter, and whilst he may present some unique challenges against the very aggressive Aliev, we are not too sure if he’s going to be able to handle the takedown offense.
Solecki does have really, really good BJJ and he has some great submissions on his record, but he has always had a low Takedown Defence percentage, typical of someone who is primarily a submission specialist, he invites the takedowns so he can be in any position on the ground to attack his opponents with submission attempts.
Why bet on Nurullo Aliev?
Aliev is coming off a rather decent fight against Alves two years ago, in which we saw him do what he always does, wrestle and look very much in control for a large portion of the fight duration.
Aliev is nothing but a wrestler, he does sometimes throw wild heavy punches when the fight is on its feet, but ultimately his primary goal is to shoot for a takedown and ascertain himself as a dominant wrestler, utilizing top pressure and just keeping heavy on his opponent to wear him down until the ground and pound starts.
Don’t get us wrong, Aliev’s stand-up is relatively okay, he’s very quick with his movements, andhas a funky style that makes him look busy and explosive but really it’s just so he can mask the takedown or a very quick overhand attack, you know, the typical stuff we see in Sambo fighters.
Final Betting Analysis: Joe Solecki vs. Nurullo Aliev
Aliev’s striking is only effective because of that takedown threat, and the only real way to nullify that kind of movement and setup is by striking first and disrupting that rhythm, which we don’t really see Solecki doing to great success unless he utilizes a gameplan of going all in early due to his lack of preparation for this fight.
This matchup is great for Aliev because his last opponent was someone who tried the same submission over and over again, so he is experienced in feeling out someone grappling game on the ground and utilizing his top control and pressure to nullify most offense.
We just don’t really see how Solecki can win this outside of a miraculous situation in which he somehow finds the back of Aliev and sinks in a Rear Naked Choke, so we believe that Aliev has this match on the bag.
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PT_BR