UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Fight Card Odds and Picks

After a pretty fun numbered event, it is time to take the trip back to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a fight night that could have a couple of barnburners, so we couldn’t be more eager for the weekend to arrive once again.

Our main fight for this event will be a middleweight contender bout between Jared Cannonier and Gregory Rodriguez, which should be pretty fun as it is likely to end before the bell rings, with both fighters throwing power.

Calvin Kattar and Youssef Zalal are getting ready to make the Featherweight division stand out in the co-main event, and we expect it to be quite a technical battle once both men enter the octagon.

Besides the fact that we are going to get interesting clashes between all divisions, this event will showcase a majority of North American fighters, with 14 from the USA and one Mexican fighter, but it will also have a decent Brazilian representation, with six fighters ready to get in the spotlight.

With six main card fights and seven prelims, we cannot wait to see how this 13-bout event will unfold, especially as it follows a numbered event, but we expect the fans to enjoy it one way or the other, just like most UFC Fight Nights tend to deliver.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Fight Card Odds and Info

UFC Fight Night: Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Why Bet on Jared Cannonier?

Jared Cannonier has served as the gatekeeper at 185 lbs for quite some time, but he hasn’t been particularly valuable to the UFC in any other role. After he was decisively defeated in his title challenge against Israel Adesanya, it didn’t make sense for the UFC to invest further in him. Instead, he has been maintaining order within the division and helping to narrow down the list of contenders.

He’s on a two-fight losing skid now, and both losses are interesting in different ways. He was doing perfectly fine against Imavov before the finish, as he was 2-1 up in the eyes of two judges and would have won had it been three rounds.

A loss to Caio Borralho followed, where Cannonier was again competitive until he got knocked down and 10-8’d in the final round. 

So Cannonier is still operating okay, minute-by-minute. He’s a pure striker with decent volume, but he doesn’t seem to have any sort of killer instinct anymore.

Why Bet on Gregory Rodrigues?

Gregory Rodrigues is a very different fighter from Cannonier. Whilst it feels like you know you’re going to get reliable consistency from Cannonier, Robocop is incredibly chaotic and will be looking to finish the fight at any opportunity.

He possesses a strong combination of striking power and effective wrestling on the mat. There has been a lot to like from Rodrigues in the preliminaries so far, but it’s also important to remember that his best win so far is only Jun Yong Park. He’s deserving of a step up in competition, so this fight makes sense.

There is, however, a massive flaw to Rodrigues, and it’s a non-negotiable that kind of stops him from being taken too seriously within the dynamic of the division – his chin is 100% a liability.

He initially got KO’d by a fighter vastly inferior to him on DWCS, then proceeded to get wobbled/stunned in pretty much all of his first five fights. Then, when facing a debutant in a supposedly easy lay-up spot, he finally got KO’d in the UFC. Since that shock loss to Brunno Fereira, Rodrigues has been relying much more on his grappling, which also indicates it’s a serious concern.

Final Betting Analysis: Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues

In terms of the stylistics of this one, I’m not sure Robocopis going to be able to wrestle with much success here. Cannonier has extremely good takedown defense, and his size, physicality, and stature seem to make it difficult for people to wantto even try wrestling him.

Borralho is one of the best top-positional fighters in the UFC at the moment, yet he shot no takedowns. Imavov has shown himself to be a comfortable and effective fighter from the top position, yet he only had Jared down for a minute in total.

Vettori also managed one takedown and 30 seconds of control time, and that’s where he’s most comfortable. It’s simply not easy to hold Cannonier down. 

UFC Fight Night: Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal

Why Bet on Calvin Kattar?

Kattar has been the gatekeeper to most of the Featherweight division’s hopeful challengers. He’s a pure striker who has some of the best boxing in the division, but the lack of variety means he has no plan B if he can’t establish dominance at a distance.

We don’t think that’s exactly going to be the conundrum here, as Kattar’s ability to keep this fight standing should probably be the difference between winning and losing.

Why Bet on Youssef Zalal?

If you’re a newer fan of the sport and youdidn’t catch Zalal’s first stint in the UFC then you’re better off than we are. To you, he probably looks amazing and like a future top-10 guy, but we can’t forget how low his ceiling looked back then.

He has improved, and we can’t discredit how great he looks at the moment, but we just can’t take it as seriously as everyone else.

Final Betting Analysis: Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal

You can’t point to Zalal submitting a semi-retired Jack Shore or Jarno Errens and say that he’s got the tools to out-grapple Kattar, but you also can’t point to any of Kattar’s tape and highlight where he’s shown the competence required to fight off that same Zalal either.

He struggled against Aljo, but other than that, we haven’t seen much grappling from him. 

However, Kattar has the experience to his side, and we think that he will get the edge during the fight by keeping it on the feet.

UFC Fight Night: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dylan Budka

Why Bet on Edmen Shahbazyan?

Edmen Shahbazyan’s career is basically about figuring out how low down the pecking order they can match him before they realize they’ve gone too far.

When fresh, Shahbazyan is a very talented fighter who really could hang in the top 15, but he’s got about 7 minutes of cardio because of the pace he sets, and when the decline hits, he could be finished by opponents who are not at the UFC level.

The question for any Shahbazyan fight is simple: Can his opponent survive long enough to take over when Shahbazyan inevitably gasses out?

Why Bet on Dylan Budka?

Budka seemingly has nothing on the feet, judging by the fact he was terrified to strike with Cesar Almeida and exclusively wanted to wrestle him. He crotch-sniffed for the entire round and managed to land one significant strike for all his top control time.

We have since seen how Cesar Almeida’s defensive grappling is, so that’s a terrible look. To make matters worse, he gassed out after six minutes of intense wrestling and seemed very affected by Almeida’s little rabbit punches when Budka was crotch-sniffing against the fence.

He has fought against Andre Petroski since but got controlled on the mat for 15 minutes, which shouldn’t have much relevance. 

Final Betting Analysis: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dylan Budka

Shahbazyan is nearly a top 15 fighter when he is at his best, but he tends to struggle and tire as the fight progresses. We believe he has a strong chance of finishing Dylan Budka in the first five minutes of their match. However, we also think that the risk of the fight turning in Budka’s favor after the halfway mark is low, as Budka also appears to have questionable cardio.

Considering Budka’s going to be wrestling for his life just like he did against Almeida, He lacks a finishing instinct, so he will probably need to fight from a distance to secure a victory. However, Budka is also likely to tire himself out. Alternatively, he may get overwhelmed and finish before it even comes to that.

UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov

Why Bet on Ismael Bonfim?

Ismael Bonfim’s debut against Terrance McKinney remains one of the best debuts we’ve seen in the UFC. But then he immediately looked awful against BSD. He underperformed and looked relatively average in his most recent win against 41-year-old Vinc Pichel. 

Why Bet on Nazim Sadykhov?

Nazim Sadykhov’s fights disappointed right off the bat. He got bailed out by a lucky cut stoppage against Evan Elder (who, in fairness, has turned out to look really good), he was getting soundly worked by McKinney before his mystical R2 capitulation kicked in, and then he went to a draw with Slava Claus. 

Final Betting Analysis: Ismael Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov

Both men seem to be around a very similar level here, which makes this a competitive fight that we could see either guy winning.

Sadykhov has shown some weaknesses in grappling, as he has been taken down by every opponent in both DWCS and the UFC. We believe Bonfim can take advantage of this. However, we don’t think it’s fair to assert that one fighter deserves to be favoredover the other.

UFC Fight Night: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Andre Petroski

Why Bet on Rodolfo Vieira?

Andrei Petroski is a bit of a flawed fighter. He’s a terrific wrestler and grappler, but his striking is pretty awful, and sometimes his cardio fails him in high-intensity fights. 

Why Bet on Andre Petroski?

Rodolfo Vieira is also a flawed fighter. He’s an elite BJJ grappler, his wrestling is okay, his striking is also pretty awful, and sometimes his cardio fails him in high-intensity fights. 

Final Betting Analysis: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Andre Petroski

Petroski is the slightly better striker and the better wrestler, so we think he has a clear path to victory by keeping the fight standing and winning with his hands.

Alternatively, we also think Petroski is savvy enough a grappler that he could offensively wrestle and consolidate the position, exactly like he did against Budka.

Vieira is a highly dangerous submission guy, and it would be wise for Petroski not to hang with him on the mat, but who has ever gotten the better of Petroski on the ground before? His overall MMA grappling is arguably superior to Vieira’s. 

UFC Fight Night: Jose Delgado vs. Connor Matthews

Why Bet on Jose Delgado?

We don’t even know who Jose Delgado is at all. He is a DWCS winner, but they pulled him into the fight to fill in for one of plenty of fights that were scrapped, and there isn’t much tape to go by, but from the DWCS wins, we aren’t expecting him to be that talented.

Why Bet on Connor Matthews?

Conor Matthews looked atrocious in his last fight. He was a prospect from the regional circuit, but once he went out on his last fight, any hype was thrown out the window.

Final Betting Analysis: Jose Delgado vs. Connor Matthews

It is hard to try to look deeper into this one and ensure that it is not a waste of time with this one. We are putting our hope on Delgado to obliterate Matthews so we get a fade opportunity next time. 

UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Ketlen Souza

Why Bet on Angela Hill?

Angela Hill is an easy fighter to get a read on. Her fights usually don’t have a whole lot of variance to them, and usually, it’s pretty easy to land a winning bet, whether you’re betting on or against her. 

Hill is primarily a striker but has put in some serious work in the past few years to improve her grappling game. It used to be as simple as looking at a binary matchup with Hill, but now she’s out here hitting takedowns and submissions of her own.

It’s cool to see a fighter her age evolving, especially one that’s been in the UFC for so long. She doesn’t get the respect she deserves because her record isn’t pretty, but that’s mostly because her style does, unfortunately, lead her to get screwed over in a lot of close, high-volume striking fights against equally talented opposition. 

Why Bet on Ketlen Souza?

Souza’s career didn’t get off to an impressive start at all. She came into the organization with a 13-3 record, having beaten names we’d never heard of but losing to the only one we had (Ariane Carnelossi, who is about one fight away from getting cut).

She started by getting Kneebar’d by Karine Silva. A bit of an embarrassing outcome, but we guess you give her a pass because Karine is very dangerous.

Next, She defeated Marnic Mann by decision. Although Mann is quite poor, she managed to land a couple of takedowns in the third round, demonstrating that Souza lacks strong techniques from her back.

Souza then had her crowning moment in her last fight, where she scored a rare KO finish over the highly regarded Yazmin Jauregui. It was a great highlight, and serious kudos to her for doing it, but Jauregui’s chin is a liability, and were it not for that, she would probably have continued piecing her up with combinations.

Final Betting Analysis: Angela Hill vs. Ketlen Souza

Hill is super durable and defensively responsible on the feet, and now that she’s added wrestling to her game, we think we could see her stall out minutes on top of Souza here.

She’s obviously going to have to stay cautious and survive on the back foot, but that’s nothing new to Hill, and she’s done it against opponents before. 

Of course, as we often warn about Hill’s fights, she does let things run quite close sometimes, and if you hear the fight has gone to a split decision, you should assume she has lost, but because we think she’s evolved her wrestling, this likely won’t factor in as much.

UFC Fight Night: Jared Gordon vs. Mashrabjon Ruziboev

Why Bet on Jared Gordon?

Jared Gordon is actually quite a well-rounded and good fighter with decent striking and solid grappling. The problem is he is a decision machine and has been robbed twice in the Nasrat Haqparast fight and the infamous fight against Paddy Pimblett.

His losses have come against quality fighters like Grant Dawson and Charles Olivera, which is to be expected as he is simply not on a different level. Gordon’s robbed victory against Pimblett is a testament to how good he is as a fighter. 

Why Bet on Mashrabjon Ruziboev?

Ruzibaev is coming on short notice against Gordon. He is Nursulton’s brother, and if he possesses grappling skills similar to his older sibling, we can expect Gordon to out-grapple him during the fight and secure another decision win.

Final Betting Analysis: Jared Gordon vs. Mashrabjon Ruziboev

We doubt Gordon will get robbed a third time, and we think he is a better overall fighter than the newcomer on the ground so that quickly factors in as the reason we are picking the more experienced fighter in this UFC Fight Night.

UFC Fight Night: Rafael Estevam vs. Jesus Aguilar

Why Bet on Rafael Estevam?

Estevam has been unfortunate with fight cancellations, but it’s frustrating we haven’t seen so much of him, considering he won his UFC contract back in 2022.

His lone UFC victory came over Charles Johnson, who has gone on to age amazingly but wasn’t actually that surprising at the time.

Why Bet on Jesus Aguilar?

Jesus Aguilar’s UFC career has been a rollercoaster so far. He’s a scrappy grappler who won his contract via DWCS, then was instantly converted into a sacrificial lamb to Tatsuro Taira.

He bounced back with a very random 17-second KO win. Then he pulled off two underdog wins in a row against Mateus Mendonca and Stewart Nicoll. He’s a high-variance fighter, as a lot of submission-reliant fighters are. 

Final Betting Analysis: Rafael Estevam vs. Jesus Aguilar

Estevam looks like a pretty tricky fight for Aguilar since the Brazilian appears to be a competent grappler in his own right, and he looks like he’s got decent wrestling and BJJ on bottom to add to it. He showed impressive submission defense on DWCS against a very tricky guard player, and the way he maintained his position in both that fight and against Charles Johnson was impressive.

Therefore, the window of winning opportunity for Aguilar is quite slim as He’s shown himself to be a crafty submission threat, which Estevam will have to look out for, but the Brazilian could just attempt to avoid grappling in its entirety if he has the takedown defense.

We are expecting the Brazilian to win here.

UFC Fight Night: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Khaos Williams

Why Bet on Gabriel Bonfim?

We may have faded Gabriel Bonfim in his last three UFC fights, but if we are being honest, we think we are finally starting to see some improvements.

We didn’t see him outstriking Ange Loosa, and he looked quite comfortable there on the bounce back from a loss to a veteran like Dalby. 

Why Bet on Khaos Williams?

Khaos Williams is just a power puncher. If he doesn’t score the knockout or do enough damage to significantly influence the fight, he’s a pretty 50/50 fighter with very little going for him.

He’s got a very muscular physique that seems to help him with his takedown defense, but it also seems to keep a limit on his cardio and overall output.

Final Betting Analysis: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Khaos Williams

We don’t like anything about Khaos Williams’ game from a betting perspective, and if he wasn’t fighting a guy with a dusty chin, we don’t think we’d ever want to bet on him. 

We think the jury is still out on Bonfim, as outstriking Ange Loosa isn’t going to win you any awards, but we can give him the benefit of the doubt here.

UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith

Why Bet on Vince Morales?

Morales is no world-beater, but we have always believed he is a much better fighter than his record at the upper echelons of MMA would have you believe.

His strength of schedule in the UFC has been really strong, with four of his six UFC losses coming against guys that have been in or near the top 15. We can forgive him for each of those losses, but unfortunately, he’s also lost to a couple of names that haven’t even proven to be UFC quality. 

Why Bet on Elijah Smith?

Elijah Smith is a winner from Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) who was previously knocked out by Reyes Cortez. It’s worth noting that this was only his third professional fight, and he was taking a significant step up in competition. However, this incident shows that he may not be the generational talent some might expect, especially considering it happened just two years ago. At only 22 years old, there is potential for significant improvement in his skills.

In his DWCS fight, Smith employed a takedown-heavy strategy, successfully landing 5 out of 11 takedowns. However, he only managed to achieve two and a quarter minutes of control time, which is not very impressive Especially if you consider the fact he was six inches taller.

He was also fighting an Australian can crusher who really didn’t look like he deserved to be competing for a UFC contract.

Smith also gassed out due to his work in that fight, and he faced a different opponent in that one. We think he probably should have been finished. 

Final Betting Analysis: Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith

Morales is a pure striker who hassimilar measurements to Smith, so the size disparity from last time won’t be there. He has a history of giving up takedowns, but he does a good job of getting back to his feet.

From what we saw of Smith’s top control, we think Morales can keep this one standing for the most part and ask questions about Smith’s gas tank. 

UFC Fight Night: Valter Walker vs. Don’Tale Mayes

Why Bet on Valter Walker?

Valter Walker is a high variance Heavyweight meme fighter. He looks like some sort of science experiment gone wrong, and his style is exclusively grappling-based.

Such a style at 265lbs is only useful if you have the finishing ability required on top, as there’s a high chance you gas out or get stuck on the feet, and your opponents simply hit too hard for you to survive as a sitting duck in there.

Walker did bounce back and show us what he’s capable of by heel-hooking Junior Tafa, but we think we might be able to do that too if we were the right size for Heavyweight.

Why Bet on Don’Tale Mayes?

Don’Tale Mayes has had a very weird UFC career so far. He’s never been anything special, but he’s always been decent enough that his career has been quite steady in the UFC.

He’s never going to make a run at the top 10, but he’s also not a fighter that you’d ever feel comfortable fading at the unranked levels.

However, Mayes’ biggest weakness has always been against grapplers. He let Shamil Gaziev have 11 minutes of top control time. Lifelong striker Augusto Sakai got eight minutes, and Hamdy Abdelwahab got six minutes. The stats tell us that when opponents get Mayes down, they are generally able to keep him down. 

Final Betting Analysis: Valter Walker vs. Don’Tale Mayes

Walker’s success relies on spending significant time in a comfortable top position, whether to score points or to set up a submission.

His UFC debut went down the drain for that reason, but Mayes’ acceptance of the bottom position should both reduce time spent standing and allow Walker to pace himself and not gas out.

UFC Fight Night: Julia Avila vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Why Bet on Julia Avila?

Julia Avila’s career went down the toilet when she had her kid. She spoke quite candidly in the build-up to the Miesha Tate fight about how she went up to 200 lbs post-pregnancy and had to work her way back down to get in shape to compete.

Honestly, ‘compete’ is perhaps a stretch because she got crushed by a woman who was on the verge of retirement and in the twilight of her career.

Tate had positional control for 10/11 minutes of the fight and outlanded Avila 127/11 on total strikes. Genuinely one of the most one-sided WMMA fights we have ever seen. 

Why Bet on Jacqueline Cavalcanti?

Cavalcanti has done a lot in a short amount of time, putting together three decision wins whilst showing very, very good defensive qualities.

Two of the wins are officially split decisions, but we think she won them both 29-28. We often emphasize, especially in WMMA, that there is no smoke without fire when these things happen.

You should acknowledge that Cavalcanti’s style is not particularly friendly in the eyes of the judges, and that is something you can capitalize on down the line. However, we don’t think it’s going to be super relevant here. 

Final Betting Analysis: Julia Avila vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti

This feels like a cash grab from Avila. The sport has evolved a lot since she was on the scene in 2020. The names she has beaten have all left the UFC and amounted to absolutely nothing. She looked atrocious in that last fight, and whilst she’s had a whole year to improve and hopefully get back some of her previous talents, we just can’t see it happening.

Cavalcanti, on the other hand, is starting to look like she deserves to be in the top 10 with striking like hers, so we got our pick here.

Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Betting Pick: Jared Cannonier

Kattar vs. Zalal Betting Pick: Calvin Kattar

Shahbazyan vs. Budka Betting Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan

Bonfim vs. Sadykhov Betting Pick: Ismael Bonfim

Vieira vs. Petroski Betting Pick: Andre Petroski

Delgado vs. Matthews Betting Pick: Jose Delgado

Hill vs. Souza Betting Pick: Angela Hill

Gordon vs. Ruziboev Betting Pick: Jared Gordon

Estevam vs. Aguilar Betting Pick: Rafael Estevam

Bonfim vs. Williams Betting Pick: Gabriel Bonfim

Morales vs. Smith Betting Pick: Vince Morales

Walker vs. Mayes Betting Pick: Valter Walker

Avila vs. Cavalcantib Betting Pick: Jacqueline Cavalcanti