We are entering the last fight night before we dive into UFC 300. For now, we take our seats on the UFC Apex to get one more Fight Night to hype the road to the best fight card of the year.
The main event was supposed to be a contender fight in which Brendan Allen was going to clash with Marvin Vettori, but Vettori withdrew due to injury a few weeks back, which opened up the path for Chris Curtis into a main event that will be a rematch between them.
Our co-main sees Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson facing each other in the Featherweight Division. Both fighters lost their most recent clashes but they are looking to get back on track, and this might be the moment to do so.
With a ton of talented up-and-comers on a main card with six fights in it and a lot of international talent between the seven prelims, we have quite an entertaining fight card to enjoy before the most important numbered event of the year lands upon us.
It is time to go into the details of each of the upcoming matches to be prepared for what will be unfolding this Saturday!
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info
When:
Saturday, April 6th, at 3:00 pm ET
Moneyline odds
Brendan Allen 1.49 vs. Chris Curtis 2.653
Alexander Hernandez 1.49 vs. Damon Jackson 2.653
Morgan Charriere 1.75 vs. Chepe Mariscal 2.08
Ignacio Bahamondes 1.295 vs. Christos Giagos 3.605
Łukasz Brzeski 3.27 vs. Valter Walker 1.35
Trevor Peek 2.487 vs. Charlie Campbell 1.55
Court McGee 3.44 vs. Alex Morono 1.31
Norma Dumont 1.64 vs. Germaine de Randamie 2.244
Pedro Falcão 1.91 vs. Victor Hugo 1.91
Cynthia Calvillo 2.01 vs. Piera Rodriguez 1.78
Jean Matsumoto 1.49 vs. Dan Argueta 2.596
Dylan Budka 1.59 vs. César Almeida 2.333
Melissa Tonya Mullins 1.281 vs. Nora Cornolle 3.63
Where can I watch it?
UFC Fight Pass
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis
Why Bet on Brendan Allen?
Give Allen credit for winning six in a row, but we can poke some pretty big holes in his opponents. His last win was against Paul Craig who is 1-3 in his last 4 and has looked pretty bad, before that he beat Bruno Silva who just lost to Chris Weidman and is now on a 1-5 skid, and before that, he beat Andre Muniz who has looked lackluster in his last 3 fights.
Brendan Allen’s strengths include a well-rounded skill set with a focus on grappling and submissions, making him dangerous on the ground.
Why Bet on Chris Curtis?
Chris Curtis, on the other hand, is known for his striking power and resilience, with a solid boxing base that could give him the edge in stand-up exchanges. Curtis’s fighting style is nothing like the guys Allen has been fighting so it’s tough to compare them.
Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis Final Betting Analysis:
Chris Curtis knocked Allen out previously to give him his 2nd loss in the UFC. This fight was a few years ago, and Curtis was able to avoid the danger on the ground for most of the bout while he got the second-round finish.
We have to believe Allen isn’t going to make the same mistakes this time around so we look for him to keep his distance and work hard for the takedowns.
This is Allen’s chance to redeem himself, and we expect him to do so.
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson
Why Bet on Alexander Hernandez?
Hernandez eats a lot of strikes, and he tends to push forward, the issue is that he does it into punches. It was the case in his last fight, where Algeo just let him walk to him and pieced him up with jabs and kicks.
His offense is pretty vanilla, and we don’t see a whole lot of upside on a guy who has 3 wins since 2019, and two of them are against Mike Breeden and Chris Gruetzemacher, two bad fighters.
Why Bet on Damon Jackson?
Jackson won four fights in a row but dropped two in a row to Ige, who I’m a fan of, but his loss to Quarantillo is concerning based on how awful Billy Q looked in his last fight. In the last two fights, he just looks a bit slower than Hernandez.
Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson Final Betting Analysis:
Alexander Hernandez boasts explosive striking and athleticism, making him a formidable opponent in stand-up exchanges. His weakness lies in consistency and grappling defense.
Damon Jackson excels in grappling and submissions, with a high fight IQ and endurance. His striking, though improved, is not as dynamic as Hernandez’s.
Considering Jackson’s ability to control fights on the ground and Hernandez’s susceptibility to skilled grapplers, the former might have the edge if he can close the distance and initiate grappling exchanges.
UFC Fight Night: Morgan Charriere vs. Chepe Mariscal
Why Bet on Morgan Charriere?
Charriere’s aggressive striking and crowd-pleasing style might look impressive until you look deeper at his record. 9 Loses in the regional scene and his only UFC win was over Zecchini who is not even a UFC-caliber fighter.
Charriere can be low-volume in his fights, but every strike is measured and purposeful. He’s KO’d his last three opponents.
Why Bet on Chepe Mariscal?
Even though Chepe was lucky to win his last fight against Jack Jenkins when Jenkins broke his arm, he was keeping the fight competitive and hung with a decent fighter.
Chepe is the kind of guy who is tough, and gritty and will fight for your money. He has been unbeaten in his short UFC career so far.
Morgan Charriere vs. Chepe Mariscal Final Betting Analysis:
Charriere had a great UFC debut and he looked a bit faster and threw more strikes which resulted in a first-round KO win with some brutal body kicks. We believe that with UFC camps and training, we’re going to see some improvement from him.
If he improves, we think he can win several fights in a row in the UFC, and get into the top 15 pretty easily. His striking and ground game are going to be too much for Mariscal in this bout.
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Christos Giagos
Why Bet on Ignacio Bahamondes?
Bahamondes is coming off a bit of a strange loss to Ludovit Klein in which the latter looked the best he has ever looked, and it took Bahamones off guard.
Klein pressured forward, landed good strikes, and took away the length advantage Bahamondes had.
Why Bet on Christos Giagos?
Giagos won the first round in his last fight against Zellhuber, but in the second round, he got tired and didn’t have the power or ability to keep up the offense. He ended up going for a weak takedown that Zellhuber blocked and put him in a choke.
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Christos Giagos Final Betting Analysis:
Bahamondes looked so bad in his last fight against Ludovit Klein that we have no faith in him at all. He has the reach advantage but does not know how to use it.
Christos Giagos is another mediocre fighter who just does enough to win but is nothing special. However, just enough to win means that he will still be able to take the victory.
UFC Fight Night: Łukasz Brzeski vs. Valter Walker
Why Bet on Łukasz Brzeski?
Brzeski won on Contender Series but got popped for PEDs after that and he’s lost his three UFC fights, although a lot of people think he won against Martin Buday. In his last two, he’s shown bad cardio and wrestling against Karl Williams, and then he got KO’d by Cortes-Acosta, his only finish in the UFC.
Why Bet on Valter Walker?
Valter Walker is making his UFC debut with a perfect 11-0 record, but he’s not been fighting anyone even remotely close to being UFC caliber.
After watching his fights, we’ve concluded that he is likely not on the level he should be to be at the UFC.
Łukasz Brzeski vs. Valter Walker Final Betting Analysis:
Walker’s bullied some really weak opponents, but his technique is awful, and his cardio is questionable at best. His strength is takedowns, and Brzeski has shown bad takedown defense, but we think there’s a chance that he looks really bad and Brzeski hands him his first loss in a very sloppy fight.
This fight features two big guys with bad cardio and lackluster skills, so it’s kind of interesting, but we expect Brzeski to win here.
UFC Fight Night: Trevor Peek vs. Charlie Campbell
Why Bet on Trevor Peek?
Trevor Peek is known for his aggressive striking and knockout power, making him a threat from the bell. His main weakness is his defense, especially against technically sound strikers.
Why Bet on Charlie Campbell?
Charlie Campbell has quite several first-round finishes but his only win in the UFC was against jobber Alex Reyes. Trevor Peek seems durable as he has never been finished in his career and he seems like one of those gritty tough fighters that can withstand punishment.
Trevor Peek vs. Charlie Campbell Final Betting Analysis:
This could be a close explosive fight with both guys having knockout power but Peek looks like a good value here. We think that he will be able to weather a stormy first round and get stronger as the fight goes on as Campbell is not used to fights going the distance.
We are expecting Trevor to take the victory on a long fight in which he will slowly take over the pace and deal the damage.
UFC Fight Night: Court McGee vs. Alex Morono
Why Bet on Court McGee?
Court McGee (22-12) parlayed his successful The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 11 run into a 5-2 UFC start, notably defeating Robert Whittaker along the way.
He’s 5-9 since, including first-round knockout losses to Jeremiah Wells and Matt Brown in his last two bouts.
Why Bet on Alex Morono?
Alex Morono (23-9) quietly worked his way up the Welterweight ranks with a four-year, 8-2 run that saw him beat the likes of Max Griffin, Donald Cerrone, and Matthew Semelsberger, among others. He now finds himself 1-2 in his last three, a submission over Tim Means sandwiched between losses to Santiago Ponzinibbio and Joaquin Buckley.
Seven of his 13 professional finishes have come via submission.
Court McGee vs. Alex Morono Final Betting Analysis:
McGee needs to hang ‘em up at this point. All he has left is his cardio. However, that vaunted durability of his is almost certainly gone after four knockdowns in six fights and his wrestling rarely poses a threat against competent opposition.
Limited though Morono may be, he hits hard enough to crack McGee’s jaw and boasts too deep a gas tank for the latter to beat him through attrition.
McGee’s only hope is to turn it into a slog, which is admittedly feasible thanks to Morono’s shaky takedown defense. The issue is that we just don’t trust him to survive long enough to make that happen at this point. In short, Morono decks him with a haymaker sometime in the first frame.
UFC Fight Night: Norma Dumont vs. Germaine de Randamie
Why Bet on Norma Dumont?
The 3-2 UFC start for Norma Dumont saw her score multiple upsets, but miss weight three times in the process. She now finds herself amid a three-fight, blemish-free, win streak that most recently saw her out-class Chelsea Chandler in July 2023.
Why Bet on Germaine de Randamie?
A five-fight win streak saw de Randamie win the Featherweight belt, ditch it to pick up two more wins at 135 pounds, then fall to Amanda Nunes in their rematch at UFC 245.
She returned to action eight months later against Julianna Pena, struggling with “The Venezuelan Vixen’s” wrestling before ultimately snatching a last-minute guillotine choke for her second post-fight bonus.
This marks her first bout in 3.5 years.
Norma Dumont vs. Germaine de Randamie Final Betting Analysis:
The one million question here is how much de Randamie has left in the tank at 39. The version of her from 2020 beats Dumont without too much issue. That’s because the best win for “The Immortal” came over the undersized Karol Rosa, who managed to drop her and win the third round after a tepid start.
That’s not going to cut it against a striker of de Randamie’s caliber, at least if both women make the weight cut with similar ease.
While the layoff does give me pause, de Randamie’s skillset and superior strength of schedule have me leaning her way. In the end, heavier shots carry her to a narrow victory.
UFC Fight Night: Pedro Falcão vs. Victor Hugo
Why Bet on Pedro Falcão?
Pedro Falcao is stepping in on three days’ notice. He replaces Alatengheili, who was forced to withdraw from the bout for undisclosed reasons.
Falcao competed in the Contender Series in October 2021, earning a third-round TKO finish on James Barnes but not a UFC contract. The 31-year-old returned to MMA competition a little over two years later, earning a submission win at Tuff-N-Uff 134 in November.
Why Bet on Victor Hugo?
“Striker” rode a 12-fight win streak into the Contender Series, where he dispatched Eduardo Matias Torres Caut with a contract-winning kneebar midway through the second round.
This set up a Nov. 2023 UFC debut against Daniel Marcos, which fell apart when Hugo missed the Bantamweight limit by 2.5 pounds.
His professional finishes are split 9:8 between submissions and knockouts.
Pedro Falcão vs. Victor Hugo Final Betting Analysis:
Even though both fighters are coming in on a great streak, Victor Hugo lucked out with Alatengheili having to withdraw, as we expected the latter to get a win on a long match, but the 3 days notice replacement may work a huge role in Hugo’s favor.
“Striker’s” standup is more style than substance and he ostensibly lacks the wrestling to drag higher-level opponents to the mat, even though his leglocks do pose a threat, but with a Pedro Falcão coming in from a really short notice, it is Victor Hugo’s fight to lose.
UFC Fight Night: Cynthia Calvillo vs. Piera Rodriguez
Why Bet on Cynthia Calvillo?
Cynthia Calvillo entered UFC in 2017 with wins over Gillian Robertson and Montana De La Rosa under her belt, then proved her bona fides with a 6-1-1 Octagon start. The run wasn’t to last, though, making the walk this Saturday on the heels of five consecutive defeats.
She fights for the first time in almost exactly one year.
Why Bet on Piera Rodriguez?
Piera Rodriguez followed her Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) title-winning stoppage of Svetlana Gotsyk by beating Valesco Machado on Contender Series to claim a UFC contract.
She dispatched Kay Hansen and Sam Hughes in her first two Octagon bouts but succumbed to Gillian Robertson’s armbar in April 2023.
All five of her professional finishes have come by knockout.
Cynthia Calvillo vs. Piera Rodriguez Final Betting Analysis:
Though Calvillo may make one last run — she was reasonably competitive with Lupita Godinez last time out — there’s not a lot of supporting evidence.
Her last standout win was a 2017 decision over Joanne Wood, and while most of her recent defeats came against solid opposition, it’s hard to bounce back from saying “no mas” against a fighter in Andrea Lee who went on to lose her next four.
We’ve never been hugely impressed with Rodriguez, but she’s athletic and well-rounded, which is more than enough to earn her a nod against what’s left of Calvillo. Indeed, she edges her out on the feet and on the mat to return to the win column.
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Dan Argueta
Why Bet on Jean Matsumoto?
Jean Matsumoto (14-0) spent four years racking up accolades on the Brazilian circuit before going undefeated (2-0) in LFA and earning a spot on the Contender Series. There, he out-classed undefeated Kasey Tanner in Sept. 2023 to earn a UFC contract.
Why Bet on Dan Argueta?
Dan Argueta followed his one-and-done Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 29 stint with a successful LFA title run that saw him edge out Diego Silva for the belt in May 2022.
He split his first two UFC bouts with Damon Jackson and Nick Aguirre but had to settle for two consecutive “No Contest” outcomes thanks to an early stoppage against Ronnie Lawrence and Miles Johns’ failed drug test.
He’s submitted four professional opponents and knocked out two others.
Jean Matsumoto vs. Dan Argueta Final Betting Analysis:
This is more a test of Matsumoto’s patience and fight IQ than anything else. He’ll make mincemeat of Argueta on the feet because, as we’ve said before, “Determined” has some of the worst defensive instincts we’ve ever seen, giving him few answers for his rival’s machine gun boxing combinations.
Just because Argueta’s wrestling is one-note doesn’t mean it’s not dangerous, though, and Matsumoto has a habit of leaving his hips exposed when he lets his hands go.
It’s not hard to see Argueta blocking a few dozen punches with his face before tying up and turning it into a slog. Between Matsumoto’s improving lateral movement and quality setups, though, we like him to circle and sharpshoot his way to a comfortable decision.
UFC Fight Night: Dylan Budka vs. César Almeida
Why Bet on Dylan Budka?
Dylan Budka powered through a debut loss to win five straight, only to fall for Azamat Bekoev in a bid for LFA gold. “Mindless Hulk” returned to action two months after with a quick get-well victory, then stepped up on two weeks’ notice to beat Chad Hanekom on Contender Series and claim a UFC contract.
He steps in for Josh Fremd on less than one month’s notice.
Why Bet on César Almeida?
Cesar Almeida juggled mixed martial arts and kickboxing before taking a shot at the Contender Series in 2023. There, he showed off stout defensive grappling to beat Lucas Fernando via decision in his first trip past the first round as a mixed martial artist.
Dylan Budka vs. César Almeida Final Betting Analysis:
Budka didn’t excel on Contender Series, but he’s got a ton of promise at just 24 years old and we are willing to blame some of the issues on the quick turnaround.
This still seems like a rough matchup for him. Despite Budka’s speed, Almeida’s a fair bit sharper on the feet and should have the takedown defense to keep it in his wheelhouse, as Budka’s wrestling background has yet to translate to a dominant grappling game.
Budka is still developing and has improved in the interim, but the same can be said for Almeida, who remains a relative neophyte in the cage. In short, the former’s past struggles with crisper punchers suggest the latter can sprawl and brawl his way to a debut victory.
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Tonya Mullins vs. Nora Cornolle
Why Bet on Melissa Tonya Mullins?
Melissa Mullins’ two-fight stint in Ares FC saw her defeat Rizlen Zouak in her debut before pounding out unbeaten Darya Zheleznyakova five months later. These victories carried her to a 2023 UFC debut, which saw her survive an early knockdown to grind out Irina Alkseeva for a unanimous decision win.
Now the undefeated fighter enters the octagon once again ready for the spotlight.
Why Bet on Nora Cornolle?
Undeterred by a debut loss to Jacqueline Cavalcanti, Nora Cornolle went on and battled her way to the Octagon with six consecutive finishes. Her debut pitted her against Joselyne Edwards, who she out-struck en route to her first decision victory.
Those six finishes include five by knockout.
Melissa Tonya Mullins vs. Nora Cornolle Final Betting Analysis:
Mullins desperately needs to fix her striking defense sooner rather than later — she’s been stunned in three of her last four fights. And while she’s been able to bail herself out each time, it’s hard to see her surviving long against genuine hitters like Irene Aldana or Macy Chiasson.
Cornolle — a decorated striker in her own right — has a very real chance of sparking Mullins before the latter even gets going. Unfortunately for her, she’ll have to keep it on her feet to do so. And if the Edwards fight is anything to go by, that’s beyond her abilities. Barring some serious improvement on her part, she doesn’t appear to have an answer for Mullins’ clinch, takedowns, and top game, which have saved “No Mess” from disaster multiple times before.
In the end, Mullins survives a hairy start to take down Cornolle and outclass her from the top.
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