The time has come for a fight that all the fans have been waiting for years now, as the current World Heavyweight Champion, Jon Jones, finally faces Stipe Miocic, the most decorated Heavyweight champion in UFC history, for a fight that Jones believes is important for his Legacy as a fighter in UFC 309.
The event will take place in Madison Square Garden, and besides having the UFC Heavyweight World Championship as the last event of the card, we have a bunch of bangers filling the rest of the main card.
The co-main event is the rematch between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler, who last met when they fought each other for the Lightweight title of the world, where Charles defended his title. Now, Chandler is looking to pay the favor back.
Bo Nickal and Paul Craig will go at it after Karine Silva and Viviane Araujo collide in the cage, so it is going to be a fun ride in the cage of this exciting numbered event.
With five main event fights and eight prelims ready to kick off the card, we are expecting all fans to be hyped up as the event leads to the long-awaited clash between Jones and Miocic.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Fight Card Odds and Picks
| Jon Jones 1.13 | Stipe Miocic 6.08 |
| Charles Oliveira 1.36 | Michael Chandler 3.21 |
| Bo Nickal 1.082 | Paul Craig 8.25 |
| Karine Silva 1.357 | Viviane Araujo 3.245 |
| Mauricio Ruffy 1.108 | James Llontop 7.09 |
| Jonathan Martinez 2.04 | Marcus McGhee 1.776 |
| Chris Weidman 1.9 | Eryk Anders 1.879 |
| Jim Miller 2.439 | Damon Jackson 1.561 |
| Roberto Romero 9 | David Onama 1.08 |
| Marcin Tybura 1.713 | Jhonata Diniz 2.153 |
| Mickey Gall 1.729 | Ramiz Brahimaj 2.115 |
| Oban Elliott 1.375 | Bassil Hafez 3.065 |
| Veronica Hardy 1.614 | Eduarda Moura 2.293 |
| When? | Saturday, November 16, at 4:00 pm ET, 3:00 pm CST, 2:00 pm MT, and 1:00 pm PT |
| Where? | Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York |
| Where can I watch it? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Why bet on Jon Jones?
Jones has all the tools in his arsenal to win this fight. Not only is he the younger fighter, but he’s also got the reach advantage to make this a hellacious fight on the feet for Stipe.
When you mix in the extremely wide range of attacks that Jones is so effective at using, we cannot help but think that the only way Miocic can triumph is to be extremely aggressive and try to replicate what gave Dominick Reyes so much success.
Jones can get uncomfortable in the cage. He often utilizes a fleet-footed retreat to get distance and reset, but he isn’t impervious to pressure.
We are highly intrigued to see Jones at Heavyweight though, as this is practically Heavyweight Jones 2.0 since his first fight against Gane was mostly weight gain and mass instead of properly forming himself in the category.
Why bet on Stipe Miocic?
Miocic has a tough pill to swallow as a fan. We love him, but we can all agree that he has essentially retired already at this point and is only fighting to get paid and go home.
We don’t know how much he has improved since his last fight, but since his demeanor was “I’ll take time off to do family and work stuff” it’s not a great look and we can’t help but think that he is going to get styled by Jones.
Final Betting Analysis: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
We are concerned by Stipe’s lack of activity, and we feel like he’s already one foot out the door, whereas Jones has ambitions for more fights after this one, although we think both will likely retire.
The big issue is that this is a fight set up for Jones’ success. It always has been, from its conception to this weekend. Outside of a sudden explosive attack from Stipe that clips Jones and drops him, we cannot see him coming out as the victor.
UFC 309: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Why bet on Charles Oliveira?
Oliveira is rightfully the favorite coming into this fight. From what we could ascertain in his last bout, he is still an astounding athlete with no sign of slowing down, especially at his age and with his background and career.
One major submission from Oliveira that we see also being a threat to Chandler is the guillotine. However, that is only because the latter’s “crashing forward” style leads him right into a submission position at times and we can’t help but see Charles grab that neck and squeeze early on.
Now, the reason why we want to say “early on” is because we believe Chandler wants the fight to be finished early, just so he can be “fresh” to call out McGregor for god knows why.
Why bet on Michael Chandler?
For Chandler, it is true that his power has become a major factor in his success. He is an athletic powerhouse with immeasurable explosiveness, his entire skill set is “let’s run forward and see what happens!” and, for the most part, it works out well for him as he is nothing but muscle and speed.
His aggression is linear, he strikes in a straight path, and all it would take for Oliveira to counter is to use his lateral movement, get into a counter angle then fire away.
Final Betting Analysis: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Oliveira has more avenues of success than Chandler does. There is no real comparison here, and we expect Oliveira’s boxing to be a major aspect of his success this weekend.
Do Bronx’s reach advantage allow him to keep Chandler at bay with the jabs, so it’s likely that Oliveira is going to drop him or at least stun him badly by a counter upon Chandler’s aggressive forward motions?
Chandler’s wrestling is likely to not work against Oliveira because of his grappling ability, as he has been preparing for outstanding wrestlers actively in the past. So, whilst his takedown defence might not be able to defend against Michael explosive takedowns, the submissions off his back or even the guillotine will be there.
UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Why bet on Bo Nickal?
Nickal is taking the toughest opponent he has ever faced in MMA, and even if his rise to this moment has been nothing short of fantastic, it also seems rushed.
Bo is an outstanding athlete, a top-tier elite wrestler, andone of the best in the world, but as much as he has great wrestling, we are still a bit unsure about how good he really can be.
Nickal is, no doubt, going to use his boxing or striking to try and finish the fight because Craig’s chin is rather sketchy. So, we think there’s going to be a knockout from the striking, but if he were to wrestle, the chance of success narrows extremely quickly.
Why bet on Paul Craig?
Craig is by no means an elite-level MMA fighter. His recent losses have been horrible for his career but we feel like this fight is a bit of a chance to create a crazy upset.
Craig should not be underestimated on the ground. It is likely his only way to win this fight, but it’s going to be an uphill battle for him as Nickal’s forward pressure and wrestling are going to most likely nullify a lot of his submission attempts, especially after getting submitted by Ryan. One would think that he has worked diligently on his defense coming into this fight.
Final Betting Analysis: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
We do not want to just say that Nickal is going to run through Craig because we are all still learning a lot about him, but honestly, that’s only going to be true if the fight stays standing because Craig’s defenses will be focused on takedowns and not striking, and there’s nothing more dangerous than a wrestler who can box.
UFC 309: Karine Silva vs. Viviane Araujo
Why bet on Karine Silva?
Silva has slowly made her way to this position in the rankings, and we think that she’s going to keep growing because, stylistically, she’s awesome.
First, her stand-up is rather kickboxing heavy, she likes to utilize all the tools in her arsenal on the feet and she strikes in such a loose manner, never tense, always in a somewhat state of flow, freely attacking her opponent because she knows the moment the fight hits the ground she’s able to implement her incredible BJJ and that’s where she has achieved most of her success.
Silva is one of those fighters who can switch from striking to wrestling really quickly. It’s how she has achieved success against Ariane da Silva, she threw up top and then went for a takedown.
Once the fight goes to the ground, she is exceptionally good at maintaining control over her opponent. She has a heavy top-down pressure, excellent adjustments in weight distribution to maintain that position, and to keep the top-down pressure going, andwhen she’s not looking for submissions, she’s landing devastating elbows.
Why bet on Viviane Araujo?
Araujo is slowly on her way out the door, with her wins being against rather sub-par fighters and her losses being against prospects and contenders.
One major thing that Araujo is going to utilize this weekend against Silva is the leg kicks. It is one of her best strikes and Karine is often someone who doesn’t check the leg kicks, usually eating one to deal a strike back.
Final Betting Analysis: Karine Silva vs. Viviane Araujo
It’s a clash when it comes to numbers, but in practice, we think Silva will be able to achieve success in transitioning the fight to the ground.
We are curious to see what Araujo does in the first round because Silva hasn’t shown a lot of her takedown defense inside the UFC. So, there’s also a chance that Araujo is going to try and test out that aspect of her game.
Araujo has a black belt in BJJ, she knows how to grapple, so we are genuinely interested in what happens when the fight hits the mat.
This won’t be an easy fight for Silva but we think she will get it done in the end.
UFC 309: Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
Why Bet on Mauricio Ruffy?
Ruffy is only one fight into his UFC career, but there is no denying that he has quite the hype and momentum behind him. The one major thing that gives him all of the advantages in this fight is the preparation time.
The great news for him is that he is likely to look good regardless of his prep time because he seemingly adapts to his opponents’ style as he fights. He reads what’s coming his way, and thanks to his wide assortment of techniques at his disposalhe is able to fight the perfect fight, especially on the feet.
Leg kicks are going to be a major contributor to success in this fight because Llontop isn’t exactly the hardest fighter on the feet but his forward pressure could cause some challenges.On the flip side, James is great at throwing leg kicks, so it’s going to come down to who is going to check those leg kicks first as a dissuasive measure to stop his opponent.
Why Bet on James Llontop?
Llontop coming in as a late replacement raised a few eyebrows. The thing we like about him is his head movement. He can be good at keeping his head off the center line, making him a fighter that’s difficult to track down.
However, as much as he has great head movement, his strikes often come from wide angles that are easy to counter. He is also slow with the strikes and easy to read. Borshchev was able to counter and out-speed him on the feet, and if he can do that, so can Ruffy, but with the additional advantage of being the more prepared fighter.
Final Betting Analysis: Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
We expect Llontop’s body to be a major target for teeps and body punches, as he has a very loose shell that’s rather wide.
That body kicks or punches will be critical in a short victory as Llontop is a bit compromised with his cardio, and attacking those systems will only drain him more.
With Ruffy fully prepared, we can only expect him to land a victory in this clash.
UFC 309: Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
Why Bet on Jonathan Martinez?
Martinez has a pretty good kicking ability, and we firmly believe that his leg and body kicks will be a major key to victory. That will be a bit more prevalent here givenMcGhee’s incredibly aggressive style, and in order to stop that, you have to target the mobility and cardio systems of the fighter.
The quickest route to slowing down an aggressive fighter is to attack the leg and take away its propulsion system.That’stypically what Martinez does all the time in the first minutes.
We are unsure if McGhee is going to be able to check Martinez’s kicks. However, the more he focuses on defending those leg kicks, the less he is being an aggressor, and that’s important.
Why Bet on Marcus McGhee?
McGhee is a fun fighter to watch, and when this fight was first announced, we jumped at the chance of wanting to pick him this week. This was prior to watching him again.
After viewing his fights with the mindset of “how is he going to fair against a highly experienced kicker like Martinez?” We cannot see this fight being as easy as Marcus has made his other fights.
McGhee is comfortable on the gas pedal, he thrives on making his opponents uncomfortable and panic as he pushes them against the fence with pressure.
One of the biggest potential changes we can see from him this weekend is slowing down and fighting tactically. Still, we feel like that would be a massive change and pretty uncharacteristic, so maybe we’ll see a typical approach from McGhee. That is, devastatingly heavy strikes to start the fight, nearly emptying his gas tank, followed by a leisurely pace in the second and third rounds.
Final Betting Analysis: Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
McGhee throws stupendously heavy in the first round, and he is one of the most ferocious first-round starters we have seen in a long time. We guarantee that, if there’s ever to be a finish, it will be from him, but the point is that the planted stance that he uses when he strikes, is wide, and it’s a power stance. Nothing but power is generated, no need for mobility and light footedness when you punch like a Middleweight.
However, that wide stance can be perfectly countered by a leg kick. Buckle the legs from under McGhee and he will be more cautious in throwing heavy.
We believe McGhee will slow down in the second and third, with that first round being mostly his to win. Whatever the case, those early leg kicks will be essential in solving the tricky puzzle of The Maniac.
UFC 309: Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
Why bet on Chris Weidman?
Weidman will be the toughest wrestling challenge for Anders and we think it’s as simple as that. On the feet, he is fine, nothing special, and whilst he’s well-rounded and has the standard weapons of any MMA fighter, he shines when it comes to his wrestling.
Now, we are highly aware that Weidman is a shell of his former self, and that’s probably why the odds reflect that he’s the underdog. Still, we cannot see a way in which Anders wins this fight unless his takedown defense is truly on point.
Weidman has really good cardio, and, at the age of 40, hasn’t exactly shown many signs of deterioration or slowing down as an athlete. He has always been an imposing fighter and used his cardio as a weapon to pressure and keep a nasty but technical pace, always in his opponent’sface,but never throwing too much volume.
Why bet on Eryk Anders?
Anders has always been a bit of a physical bully when he fights. He isn’t your traditional MMA fighter and doesn’t have the technique that a lot of standard martial artists have. However, what he has is speed and power, and when he mixes those two assets together he can be dangerous to fight.
Anders’ last two wins have been against Jamie Pickett, a fighter who did not succeed in the UFC, and Kyle Daukaus, who had a very short stint in the UFC.
The great news for Anders’ bettors is this: he has been working incredibly actively on improving his grappling. He is refining newfound tools all the time, as he has participated in quite a few grappling bouts in recent years, but we don’t think thathe’s ready for Weidman.
Final Betting Analysis: Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
Weidman has two really important strikes that he needs to utilize over and over again to chip away at Anders, the leg kick and the jab. Hopefully, a jab without the fingers being extended.
Anders is also very susceptible to leg kicks, and withWeidman’smain kicking leg being reinforced with titanium or whatever they put on snapped legs, he has broken past any mental barrier of not throwing leg kicks when he fought Bruno Silva. We think he will be more confident in throwing those leg kicks this weekend against Eryk, as it is almost pivotal to land those as a starting attack in order to slow down his athletic explosiveness on the feet.
We believe Weidman will be taking the victory thanks to his experience and best tools in the trade.
UFC 309: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
Why bet on Jim Miller?
We are quite unsure just how Miller is going to look coming into this fight considering he left UFC 300 bruised and battered. Miller has always been a tenacious fighter who is exceptionally well-rounded and who mostly specializes on the ground, much like Jackson.
The only difference here is that we think Miller is someone who struggles against overwhelming pressure and ifthere’s anything that Jackson does well, it’sget in his opponent’s face and make the grappling and wrestling moments ridiculously gritty.
Miller will need to be the first one to start any sequence. He needs to be on the gas pedal for this one or else he’s just going to be dealing with a sticky Jackson who wants nothing more than to drag him into the ground and maul him with submission attempts and ground and pound.
Why bet on Damon Jackson?
Jackson has never been an easy one to bet on. He sometimes pulls off upsets out of nowhere, but after a while, we have come to realize that he is a simple fighter to predict. He crashes forward, closes the distance, and sticks to his opponent like glue as he fights like hell to get to the ground.
On the feet, he mostly uses his strikes in a rather sloppy way to drive his opponent back so he can use the fence to pin them for a takedown position. From there, he can freely do whatever he wants as his ground game is pretty great when it comes to control over damage.
Now, there are a few red flags raised concerning his takedown defense, thus why this fight is primarily going to be a battle of who can get off their takedowns first.
Final Betting Analysis: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
Miller could pull an upset but it would have to come from the stand-up action because Jackson’s striking is a touch behind his, if we are to compare the two. Jim has more cleaner strikes, times his punches more, and he has a power advantage. However, at this stage in his career, we would guess that he would only use his strikes to set up takedowns.
Miller is a bit more methodical than Jackson, and whilst we think Damon is going to succumb to a few takedowns, we are unsure if he will be stuck in any position as he often is good at reversing and using his body clenched to regain control.
We believe Jackson will take the victory because Miller is not fully immersed in his fighting career anymore. Otherwise, this would look bad for him.
UFC 309: Roberto Romero vs. David Onama
Why bet on Roberto Romero?
Mexico’s Romero comes to the UFC after a solid run with Combate Global over the last few years. He found success as an aggressive pressure fighter with enough wrestling and grappling to get by.
Romero should be up to put in an effort, but there isn’t much horsepower to his game at the moment. So, it seems likelyhe’s going to quickly find himself hitting an athletic ceiling against a potent finisher.
Why bet on David Onama?
Onama still has a lot to iron out, but he has maintained his status as a prospect to watch during his time in the UFC.
He has had some impressive moments of fight-ending violence, but getting there has often seen him fight down to his level of competition, struggling with some combination of cardio, defense, and wrestling along the way.
The good news is that he is coming off the most consistent performance of his career against one of his toughest opponents, holding up surprisingly well against Jonathan Pearce for his first decision victory.
For a follow-up effort, Onama draws a UFC newcomer and late replacement in Romero, who steps in on just a few days’ notice.
Final Betting Analysis: Roberto Romero vs. David Onama
With the short-term replacement entry of Romero into the mix, we believe that this is Onama’s fight to lose. So, even though we can give some praise to the Mexican fighter for stepping up on such short notice, we can’t help but put our betting token against him.
We expect Romero to put up a good fight for as long as his gas tank allows him to keep up with Onama, trying to pressure him and finish the fight to the ground. However, we think this fight won’t end quickly and it will allow David to take over and get the win.
UFC 309: Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz
Why bet on Marcin Tybura?
Tybura has a very clear way to win this fight, and that’s to wrestle and stifle the striking of Diniz, much as he did against Tuivasa, and much as he has practically done most of his career.
His wrestling and grappling have always been a core reason to watch him fight. He has never been a really dangerous striker although he is well-rounded enough to be dangerous on the feet, as is every heavyweight.
Our biggest concern about him is his complete inability to get the fight to the ground against this opponent because, the longer this fight remains on the feet, the more chances Diniz has at landing his strikes.
Why bet on Jhonata Diniz?
Diniz is a fascinating fighter to talk about because even if he is still new to the UFC, he has left a fairly large impression. His debut win over Lane did not come without alarm bells ringing surrounding his takedown defense, but if your opponent never showed wrestling in the past and suddenly wrestles, it’s a complete surprise.
The great news about him this weekend is he knows what’s up. Tybura is a phenomenal grappler, so he will know to be patient with his strikes.
He has great hips, as when he saw Karl look for the hips for the takedown, he instantly shifted the legs back and posted off the shoulders and head.That’s many hours of drilling coming to fruition, and that’s important.
Final Betting Analysis: Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz
As soon as Diniz lands a leg kick in the first round, we firmly believe that it will be a precursor of things to come. Tybura is a very hittable fighter, and considering that Jhonata is much younger, faster, and has a lot more striking technique than Marcin does, we think that he will get punished on the feet.
We say this because when Tybura throws a combination, he is generally wide and sloppy. Even at a regular guard stance, his hands are at his chest. That’s an offensive output stance that is going to only lead him to be countered by Diniz.
UFC 309: Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
Why bet on Mickey Gall?
Gall is coming off a rough losing streak, although we will say that his last outing against Hafez is something that should not be called a loss. The boy fought an uphill battle and did exceptionally well where others might have fallen.
Gall is a rapidly improving fighter, and we feel like that fight, no, that war against Hafez, has made him grow even more. We can’t help but think that, come this weekend, we will see a Gall that has built strongly off his advancements from his last fight.
Why bet on Ramiz Brahimaj?
Brahimaj is seemingly a one-trick pony when it comes to victories. The dude loves his submissions and honestly, that’s all you can really say about him. He has not really been too effective on the feet, mostly sticking to the standard array of strikes whilst focusing on getting the fight to the ground through leg/hip or body takedowns. We can’t help but think that Gall is going to be too effective in reading those takedowns and defending accordingly.
Final Betting Analysis: Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
The largest threat to Gall this weekend is Brahimaj’s grappling. Ramiz is a very solid grappler who, if not controlled properly could find a way to submit his opponents, but we feel like Mickey is able to do enough on the ground in order to stifle the submission attacks from his foe.
If Gall implements the same style that Gorimbo used when they fought, we expect similar success to happen. However, he does not have the same wrestling that Gorimbo does, being more submission-based, and that is where Brahimaj wants the fight to go.
We do not expect Gall to let him play his game, though, and believe that the improving talent will find a win.
UFC 309: Oban Elliott vs. Bassil Hafez
Why bet on Oban Elliott?
Oban Elliott is such a fantastic addition to the UFC. His style is that of a bully who is highly aggressive and will drag his opponent down into deep waters as soon as the fight goes to the ground, and there is no easier opponent, in our opinion, to take down than Hafez, a highly dangerous striker who puts everything on the feet.
Elliott’s style is pretty straightforward; wrestle and smash on the ground. He does those things extremely well and we think he will keep this gameplan straightforward. Close the distance, level change, and hunt for a finish on the ground, as that is where he deals the most offense.
He is so vicious on the ground, but he’s also smart with his output as he knows when to take a breather and just use downward pressure to get a few moments to breathe.
Why bet on Bassil Hafez?
Hafez is coming off a fairly decent win against Gall, and he looked terrifying. The power he threw with every punch, the aggression even, it wasalljust pure strength being thrown.
Hafez reminds us of a roundup coil. He is not very loose on the feet,he has an extremely tight shell, and once he decides to let his hands go, it’s an explosion of aggression that catches his opponents off guard.
However, as much as he is a monster when he presses on the pedal and launches himself forward, he is not exactly defensively sound. We can’t help but think that due to his style of not really throwing soft attacks to open up his opponent for bigger combinations, he is going to slow down a bit as the rounds go by. It is during those potential moments of him slowing down that we are likely to see Elliott pull ahead with his tremendous cardio and varied attack.
Final Betting Analysis: Oban Elliott vs. Bassil Hafez
On the feet, we are going to say that we expect Hafez to try and destroy the legs of Elliott early, as the latter has a very heavy lead foot, and that’s mostly there to just propel him forward, but it’s also just a massive target.
Hafez is quick to scramble back up from being taken down. He is so fast to get to his feet it’s ridiculous, and we think Elliott will have to squeeze and hold him down in order to calm his incredible reflexes to get back to his feet. Still, we believe he will be able to find the way.
UFC 309: Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura
Why bet on Veronica Hardy?
Hardy has definitely become someone to keep an eye on, and despite her rather placated style of playing it safe, she has grown as a fighter andthat’s all you want to see for someone on her second UFC run.
Hardy is primarily a striker who uses timing and volume to deal damage. Even if she isn’t a knockout artist, she has quite a bit of power in her hands.
We highly suspect that Hardy’s striking variation will be nullified a bit by the wrestling threat of Moura. So, we are likely to see a lot more boxing from Veronica than head kicks or anything that can lead to a trip from the latter.
We do not think that Hardy has a decent chance to get up from the ground once Moura is in top control. So, we will keep an eye on her ability to disengage from a takedown grip.
Why bet on Eduarda Moura?
Moura’s gameplan is extremely simple and she has a linear path to victory, get the fight to the ground. One thing that stands out is her aggression in the first round, as she is very quick to close the distance and look for a level change.
Moura’s takedowns come through her driving forward force and her leg picks. She likes to take the back of the knee (knee tap) and drive through her opponent to the ground, and we hope Hardy has picked up on that.
Final Betting Analysis: Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura
Hardy has not fought anyone like Moura during this run in the UFC. She has only encountered rather mid-tier fighters who have no prospects in the UFC, so this fight feels like a test for her takedown defense.That is a scary thought due to how simplistic she can be on the feet because she seemingly does only enough to get the win, but not enough to prove to fans and matchmakers alike that she deserves better competition.
This is a striker versus grappler fight in all seriousness, and we don’t think Moura has good enough striking defense to deal properly with Hardy.
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