The UFC is getting ready to make it or break it, as they come to Las Vegas to put on a huge event for the UFC 306. All the eyes are placed on them as we go to the Sphere, inwhathas been pointed out by Dana White to be a one-time thing, which could be even bigger than UFC 300.
This is also labeled as Noche UFC, as they are doing this event right on the weekend of Mexican Independence Day. That means both, the Latino community and Mexican fighters, are more than ready to take the spotlight in this historic event for the promotion.
Even though the Headliner will be placing in some star power with Sean O’Malley taking the challenge of dealing with Merab Dvalishvili in the main event, we get the Mexican Champion, Alexa Grasso doing her 3rd fight with Valentina Shevchenko, trying to put an end to their rivalry with a big statement, as her opponent tries to get her Belt back.
Besides that, we get a fun clash between Brian Ortega, and Diego Lopez, who are well received by the Latino community and are likely to bring us an excellent grappling exchange in their about. Besides that, we, indeed, have a ton of Mexican representatives at the event.
The Mexican names include Daniel Zellhuber, Ronaldo Rodriguez, Irene Aldana, Manuel Torres, Yazmin Jauregui, and Edgar Chairez. We also have Raul Rosas Jr. who represents his Mexican heritage, and the aforementioned Champion, Alexa Grasso.
This event will be quite shorter than usual though, as it will have only 10 fights, split even into 5 main events and 5 prelims, so we are ready to break it down.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Fight Card Odds and Info
| Sean O’Malley 1.79 | Merab Dvalishvili 2.02 |
| Alexa Grasso 1.77 | Valentina Shevchenko 2.06 |
| Brian Ortega 2.487 | Diego Lopes 1.55 |
| Daniel Zellhuber 1.44 | Esteban Ribovics 2.832 |
| Ronaldo Rodríguez 1.71 | Ode Osbourne 2.16 |
| Irene Aldana 1.92 | Norma Dumont 1.86 |
| Manuel Torres 1.8 | Ignacio Bahamondes 1.97 |
| Yazmin Jauregui 1.178 | Ketlen Souza 4.79 |
| Edgar Cháirez 2.905 | Joshua Van 1.41 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. 1.09 | Aoriqileng 7.02 |
| When? | Saturday, September 14th, at 7:30 pm ET, 6:30 pm CST, 5:30 pm MT, and 4:30 pm PT |
| Where? | The Sphere, in Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Where can I watch it? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Why Bet on Sean O’Malley?
O’Malley has looked better and better every time we see him, even though we don’t like him much on a personal level. However, he has a unique ability to strike as effectively on the retreat as he does when he’s marching down his opponents, and we think striking is going to be his primary and perhaps only way to win this fight.
The way he led Sterling into a lunging attack only to counter with a right hook, led to the fight being finished within a minute. One minute is all it took to finish someone who had all the momentum behind him with a fantastic win over Yan and Dillashaw.
O’Malley is going to have to deal with one main thing though, and that’s the insurmountable wrestling pressure and volume of takedown attempts that Dvalishvili is so well known for, and we don’t know if O’Malley can deal with that.
The simplicity of this fight is clear, O’Malley is going to find vast success if the fight remains standing. His counterhooks and straights upon his opponent entering range are going to be pivotal in potentially slowing down the forward pressure and sporadic level change pace that Dvalishvili is so outlandishly good at.
Why Bet on Merab Dvalishvili?
Dvalishvili’s cardio is abso-fucking-lutely ridiculous, his wrestling and the sheer pace are just so damn silly and unrealistic. He is “The Machine” for a reason, and we think if he can avoid all of the striking exchanges through sheer pressure and force, he can easily steal the belt from O’Malley. That said, he has a highly questionable chin, one that has been tested by so many of his opponents, and we do not like the prospect of Dvalishvili “testing” his chin against a sniper like O’Malley.
We expect a lot of rapid-level change feints, a quick burst of striking/punching volume on the feet followed by a grab for the waist or leg of O’Malley. That, or a counter-level change timed off of O’Malley’s offensive jabs or straights.
If Dvalishvili approaches with a high stance andwalks O’Malley down, we suspect that is when O’Malley will snipe as he did against Sterling, so really the only way for Dvalishvili to win is honestly from those two different approaches to a level change.
Final Betting Analysis: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
The good news for O’Malley in this fight is that his ability to counter off the back foot is going to be highly effective against a fighter whose defense is his wrestling offense. Sure, Merab likes to clash in the pocket and throw hard, but he’s far from a better striker than O’Malley is.
We have to point out that for the challenger, the success of his takedown is a bit irrelevant because of how sticky Dvalishvili is when he’s in grappling range. He doesn’t let go, it’s life or death for him when it comes to wrestling, and for the most part, he’s great at achieving success through sheer pressure and volume of attempts alone.
We guess that Merab will not suffer the same mistakes that Aljo went through in his fight with O’Malley. He can break through and steal the win with his wrestling pressure.
UFC 306: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Why Bet on Alexa Grasso?
Grasso has completely transformed throughout her career and looked outstanding during her fights against Shevchenko. Her boxing was clean and she was able to push her rival deep into the final rounds, but it did not come without adversity. Valentina is also going to look exceptional, being one of the best strikers in the UFC, combat sports are her life and it shows whenever she fights.
The great thing about Grasso is that she can switch stance comfortability without losing any effectiveness on the feet. Her striking arsenal is very strong in both stances, and we think that the stance switches are always going to be a problem for a fairly static fighter like Shevchenko because it opens up more possibilities.
Grasso hurt Shevchenko a few times in the second bout, including a slick right hand off an exchange. Later in that same (second) round, we saw some gorgeous knees and elbows in the clinch. That is what Grasso can bring to this fight, action and an overwhelming pace.
Activity is key when dealing with a highly technical single-stance fighter like Shevchenko because whilst she has a somewhat impervious defense, activity still catches her off guard because she is reliant on using her left hand straight to counter. If there are different variations of attack from Grasso, something will break through that defense.
Why Bet on Valentina Shevchenko?
Shevchenko is still one of our favorite athletes, but age and tiredness in the body are becoming a bit more impactful to her performances.
Shevchenko has fought incredibly well in her two bouts against Grasso, and we think the major turning points in the fight were the wrestling and grappling, areas we consider she needs to stick to to win. While mixing things on the feet, we have to give Grasso the nod.
Final Betting Analysis: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Grasso has a distinct advantage in growing from her previous fight against Shevchenko, her growth rate has been exponential compared to the latter who has stagnated a little bit recently. However, that’s not a bad thing because Shevchenko is already a top-tier talent, stagnation is only so bad if there’s nothing to improve on, and, we don’t think she can improve much more.
Grasso strings together combinations on the feet a lot better than Shevchenko, granted the latter’s pinpoint accuracy with her fundamental strikes is extremely high level.
If Grasso can clean up (or has cleaned up) her body triangle defense, and has figured out the right ways to scramble and deal with terrible positions like that, we are going to see her retain the belt again.
UFC 306: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
Why Bet on Brian Ortega?
Ortega is coming off a very strong win over Yair Rodriguez in which we saw his prime, doing what he is outstandingly good at doing, grappling and choking people out.
He made Rodriguez’s ground game look non-existent, it took us by surprise because the latter always has a decent ground game. We believe Ortega is going to do the same against Lopes, and since his next rival does not have the best takedown defense, those transitions to the ground are going to come a lot easier.
However, on the ground, we think it’s going to be incredibly fascinating because both Lopes and Ortega are elite-level grapplers. We are talking about absolute monsters in grappling, so we are very much expecting a Gamrot vs. Tsarukyan remake.
Now, we are more than aware of Ortega’s history of getting torn up by strikers, but we don’t quite think that’s going to happen this weekend because Lopes isn’t a striker. He is a grappler who is comfortable striking sometimes, and now that he’s had numerous knockouts, he’s fallen in love with that striking.
Why Bet on Diego Lopes?
Lopes has taken off recently. He is coming off three first-round finishes against increasingly better opponents, but we must mention, thatto go from Yusuff and Ige to Ortega is not just a leap, that’s a missile launch.
Diego Lopes is a very well-rounded fighter with remarkable striking but he is mostly known for his ridiculous ground game. He is such an assassin on the ground which makes this a fascinating fight coming up against Ortega.
As long as this fight remains standing, we give the advantage to Lopes, but that is not because he is a great striker or anything, but simply because Ortega’s chin and his susceptibility to eating shots over and over make him a bit of an easy target to piece up on the feet. In addition, with Lopes being the taller and longer fighter, that striking is going to be a bit more effective.
The only problem is that Lopes suffers from what a lot of BJJ fighters suffer from, and that’s terrible takedown defense.
Final Betting Analysis: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
We are still highly skeptical of Ortega’s ability to take powerful punches though, and whilst he recovers quickly, we don’t know if he can withstand and absorb that much damage. He has strong boxing fundamentals buthe doesn’t move his head a whole lot. As a result, he is an unmoving but steadily approaching target, and if Lopes finds that chin, it could go badly for the former title challenger.
We think we are going to see Ortega initiate a lot of the takedowns followed by Lopes using his very active guard to set up submissions of his own.
We saw that when he fought Evloev. He was very dangerous on the ground, and we are most likely going to see that against Ortega because a win against him is nice andall, but a submission win against him is so much sweeter. At this point, Lopes is chasing accolades because he is on a good streak right now, but that hunger might just hand the win to Brian.
UFC 306: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
Why Bet on Daniel Zellhuber?
Zellhuber has a rather unblemished record outside of his tough decision loss against Ogden, and we must say, he has fallen under the radar of a lot of people.
His primary base is his wrestling. He has finely tuned his entire MMA skillset thanks to the expert training out of Xtreme Couture, and whilst we have almost explicitly seen his stand-up striking, we are quite intrigued to see just how good his wrestling is.
Zellhuber is a rather patient and methodical fighter. He uses his reach and length as a barrier to read and gauge his opponents’ actions and movements before he goes for a strike that perfectly counters or leads to a perfect retaliatory attack.
Daniel Zellhuber is great at sticking to the basics. He throws single leg or body kicks here and there, but it is his lead hand that sets up everything nicely, and due to that significant reach, we expect that jab to be the perfect weapon for success this weekend.
Why Bet on Esteban Ribovics?
Ribovics is only three fights into his UFC career but he has looked terrific. He is a fantastic striker who has a disgustingly sneaky headkick and a whole lot of utilization of forward pressure and aggression. It’s that kind of style of attack that has directly led to a fantastic knockout against first-round warrior Terrance McChinny.
Ribovics is still a ferocious kickboxer who is outstanding at getting in his opponent’s face and throwing heavy unanswered attacks. Still, it is clear to us that Zellhubers defenses and utilization of lateral footwork is going to make him hunt down a bit more in hopes of landing that knockout attack.
Final Betting Analysis: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
We have major concerns about Zellhuber’s ability to deal with the potential explosive flurry his rival is so good at using. Esteban can be a raging bull for only a few seconds but can deal an astronomical amount of damage, and it is during those short flurries of action initiated by him that we expect Zellhuber to deal with severe adversity.
We think that the reach advantage of Zellhuber is going to give him that extra bit of time to raise the shell and get ready for an onslaught.Thisis, not to say that Daniel will be able to eliminate that threat in totality through his defense, but we think that in a pocket exchange, Ribovics could pull ahead in terms of damage and visuals, but at range, it should be all Zellhuber, and then there is Daniel’s wrestling to get him out of any pickle.
UFC 306: Ronaldo Rodríguez vs. Ode Osbourne
Why Bet on Ronaldo Rodríguez?
Rodriguez is coming off a pretty exciting debut win against Denys Bondar, and whilst he got smacked with strong, quick overhand rights and taken down, it was clear he is very comfortable on the ground. He has an active submission game and can lock in submissions off his back frequently.
That is perhaps where the good stuff ends, however. The reason is that he looks like a ridiculously static target on the feet, and sure, his style is practically “walk down and strike hard”, but hejustlooks so silly doing that.
Why Bet on Ode Osbourne?
Osbourne himself is in a weird position in his career yet he’s the opener for the main PPV card. The face that PPV buyers first see walk into the octagon is his.
Ode has been having a rough time against submission threats recently. With back-to-back submission losses against Almabaev and Filho, things are looking quite bleak for him.
One great thing about Osbourne is the fact that he has good counterboxing. That would be a major asset and perhaps the main contributor to success in this fight for the Jamaican Sensation.
Final Betting Analysis: Ronaldo Rodríguez vs. Ode Osbourne
We believe that Rodriguez will have an advantage on the ground, but that is only because Osbourne’s best attacks are on the feet. It’s about as simple as that, and when you take away someone’s length through takedowns, they are completely stunted on the ground.
Ode’s massive reach advantage of eight inches is going to be evident early on also as he should be capable of landing the standard jabs and check hooks, things that should be effective against a rather defenseless fighter like Rodriguez. However, if he can’t keep Rodriguez at bay, he could contend with quick level changes or a ferocious short hook combination as he enters the pocket.
UFC 306: Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
Why Bet on Irene Aldana?
Aldana has had an interesting career so far. She hasn’t exactly asserted herself too well in the division because after every loss there are a few wins here and there against some relatively average fighters, but there is one thing that we like about her, and that’s her boxing.
Aldana is an excellent boxer who can string together beautiful combinations, she is so calm and collected on the feet, never over-extending her shots and always making sure that she throws at the right time with the right technique. It’s a clean style that has proven to be a challenge for quite a few of her opponents.
Irene is great both defensively and offensively if we are only talking about boxing, and we think that she could pull ahead in the statistics when it comes to punches landed and all that jazz. However, we are a little bit iffy about her ability (or inability) to defend takedowns.
Now, we are aware that on paper her takedown defense is pretty high, but we firmly believe that was inflated due to her early fights against rather no-name talent who are terrible fighters and wrestlers.
Why Bet on Norma Dumont?
Dumont has always been a rather mid-fighter for me to talk about. We are genuinely not at all excited to see her when she fights simply because her style is so bland and so clean that there’s no real reason to be excited about her.
She isn’t necessarily a strong striker, she can certainly strike at a fairly decent level but does not excel on the feet. Her best asset as a fighter is her ability to mix in styles well though, and that has led to some reasonable success in grappling because she keeps her opponent busy on the feet, lulling them into thinking it’s going to be a tit for tat bout until Dumont goes for a level change.
The way that Dumont mixes her takedowns with her strikes will allow her to, at least visually to the judges, be the busier fighter and thus possibly have rounds swung her way.
Final Betting Analysis: Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
Norma Dumont is going to most likely challenge that takedown defense stat in practical ways this weekend because that is what Dumont tends to do rather well, wrestle and grapple. It’s interesting to see if Aldana can adjust to that style quickly to get the advantage on the feet.
If Dumont can get the fight to the ground even once that might result in Aldana being stuck in the bottom position for the remainder of the round, or for a long enough time that Aldana will be entirely ineffective if she can get back to the feet with the limited time remaining.
UFC 306: Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Why Bet on Manuel Torres?
Torres has been an unrelenting force in the division, with numerous first-round stoppages over Camacho, Motta, and Duncan. He is, no doubt, a dangerous threat to anyone that faces him.
However, as much as he may be a massive damage dealer in the first round, there are some gaping holes in his defenses that are a bit concerning. Torres relies on his strong offense as a strong defense, and we mean that literally.
He swings massive strikes from wild angles, and that alone is enough to dissuade his opponents from firing back in fear of those shots landing from Torres.
He is a strong starter, but he isn’t facing a nobody in this bout, he is facing someone who has come up against some of the most talented fighters in the division, someone who went three rounds against Klein and Ogden. He is also fighting someone who has a ridiculous height that is extremely difficult to prepare for.
Why Bet on Ignacio Bahamondes?
Bahamondes has looked great recently, with a strong KO win over Giagos by way of a head kick, and it is that head kick that is going to pose the most danger for Torres. The height advantage is so unique for Bahamondes that it allows head kicks to become a lot more available without the risk of being unbalanced.
What we mean by that is, thatwhen two fighters of the same height go for head kicks, there’s more of a lean back to get that angle. Bahamondes doesn’t quite need that leanback, he can just flick it up there with no real loss in balance, and that’s pretty advantageous.
Kicking range is where he shines. His kicks are his main weapon and if he can sustain that distance management throughout this bout, he should be able to pull ahead on the scorecards if this becomes a distance fight. If not, we suspect that he will be actively looking for that head-kick finish as he did against Giagos, especially if Torres swings a bit too much and leaves his head open for a counterkick.
Final Betting Analysis: Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
We can’t help but think that, outside of the first round, Torres is going to potentially fatigue due to the sheer output and power he throws in the first. So, if Bahamondes can survive that initial onslaught of danger, we can see him pulling ahead somewhat.
We understand that Ignacio gets hit a lot in punching range. He is highly susceptible to strikes from punches, as he does not have the best defense. He toughs it out most of the time and we don’t like that at all when Torres is so good at throwing together hard combinations with nothing but power.If Bahamondes sticks to his hooking range, we can’t help but think that the former will be on the receiving end of some horrific shots.
We believe he will find the right kicking distance and score the kick finish.
UFC 306: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza
Why Bet on Yazmin Jauregui?
Jauregui has always been a bit of a highlight fighter for me. We raved and ranted at how good her striking is ever since her Lucindo fight and she is, no doubt, a fierce competitor on the feet who doesn’t back down from her opponents’ aggressive attacks. She stands her ground and is more than willing to exchange incredible shots.
Jauregui is coming off a highly competitive fight against Sam Hughes. It was such a fantastic fight to watch and enjoy how technical she can be.
Yazmin is rarely a single-strike fighter, everything comes in bunches when she throws punches and she often mixes up which side she is going to throw first. It makes it difficult to get a read on her, as the strikes come from different angles.
We also like her teep kicks as well. She mixes those in with her punching combinations so the variation of attack and the target is all over the place, making her opponent’s ability to defend all the strikes coming a whole lotmore difficult.
Ultimately, though, we think this is a simple matter of “let us give this opponent a bit of a can crusher so help promote her”,because honestly, Souza is not a great matchup.
Why Bet on Ketlen Souza?
Souza is coming off a win against Marnic Mann, and it was all right. The latter is a horrific fighter who is so damn bad that a win over her isn’t that great, but it gave us 15 more minutes to watch Souza’s style. However, we still cannot see how Souza, outside of a powerful overhand right, can get a win over the much faster and volume-heavy fighter like Jauregui.
Ketlen might be able to use her power as a way to deter Jauregui from settling in with longer combinations, but wejust don’t quite see Souza keeping up with her strike for strike.
The thing that we have noticed that just screams at us is the fact that Souza has a traditional heavy-handed stance. It is that wide-open shell that is iconic for fighters who prioritize single shots of power over the diversity of volume that Jauregui certainly has.
There is still quite a bit to learn about Souza, but we just cannot see her getting the upper hand outside of a flush overhand right that might turn the tide.
Final Betting Analysis: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza
We see Jauregui finding a lot of success with her boxing, being the faster striker, and the volume that she utilizes a major aspect of success in this fight. We cannot help but think that the combinations and the variation of starting shots are going to create a large divide in striking visuals between these two fighters.
The other thing against Souza here is cardio, as Jauregui has outstanding cardio and conditioning, as she displayed near minimal diminishment in speed and movement in the third round against Hughes. She looked just as good in the third as she did in the first and we firmly believe that, if Jauregui can put out a tremendous amount of volume this weekend and remain as calm and collected without sign of fatigue, she is going to skyrocket past Souza.
UFC 306: Edgar Cháirez vs. Joshua Van
Why Bet on Edgar Cháirez?
Chairez is coming off a very strong triangle submission win over Daniel Lacerda, but it was not without a bit of an asterisk, as he missed weight by quite a bit.
Whilst a one-off miss isn’t too terrible, we wonder if he will remedy that weight issue. Chairez is a well-rounded fighter with a very high finish rate and is relatively dangerous in all aspects of the sport. However, he tends to struggle with an opponent with unrelenting volume and activity.
We bring this up simply because it is Vans’ primary selling point as a fighter and perhaps the main reason he is the favorite. Edgar loves to utilize the leg kicks early, hismain weapon on his feet is his kicks, which is why a lot of his opponents tend to try to counter through takedowns, becoming victims to an array of submissions in the guard shortly after.
Why Bet on Joshua Van?
Van is coming off a rough knockout loss against Charles Johnson, and it was crappy to see because, for the most part, he fought exceptionally well, at a high pace, at freakin altitude.
Joshua will, most likely, look to be the more damaging boxer as he does have more emphatic strikes in his inventory compared to Chairez who, outside of his strong singular kicks and short flurries with his punches, isn’t that much of a finisher.
We have a concern when it comes to him, and that is the first round. His first-round pace can be a bit slow but he is quite a methodical fighter who sees and reads all of the attacks and movements his opponents make. We expect pressure and pace to meld well with Van’s ferocious boxing, so we expect him to be more defensive than offensive during that first round. Then, once he has made adjustments and formulated a setup for strong combinations, the second and third rounds should be when Van lets his hands go and starts feeling himself.
Final Betting Analysis: Edgar Cháirez vs. Joshua Van
The main threat for Van in this fight is the grappling. However, we think that, as long as the fight remains standing, we might not see Chairez forcing a level change unless he hurts Joshua badly. We suspect that Edgar will have to deal with the plethora of attacks and striking combinations that Van uses dexterously.
Everything that Van throws tends to be built up from his jab. It is his comfort strike much like how Chairez relies on those leg kicks at range. Everything starts from those strikes for both fighters.
Either way, Chairez will push the pace from the first one and get the job done before Joshua Van becomes an issue.
UFC 306: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
Why Bet on Aoriqileng?
Aoriqileng is certainly someone who can stop the freight train that is RosasJr. if he can keep this fight standing. That is, seemingly, the only rule to success for any Rosas Jr. fight.
However, as much as that sounds great on paper, it is a bit of a long shot given how open Aoriqileng is for getting taken down. The power and veracity of his strikes are beautiful and have the rightcacophony of speed and power to wow the crowd, but it is that exact style that will make getting takedowns in him a fair bit easier, or with less resistance.
Why Bet on Raul Rosas Jr.?
Rosas Jr. has grown quickly as an MMA fighter since we first saw him fight against Mando Gutierrez two years ago. He was almost exclusively a wrestler with his only strikes being ground and pound.
However, we believe everything changed when he lost to Rodriguez andthus we saw a transformation from a highly aggressive wrestler to someone who sets up his wrestling and level changes with aggressive combinations.
We don’t need to tell you how a confident young athlete acts in the cage. We have seen this multiple times with many young fighters over the years, and boy is Rosas Jr brimming with confidence.
The effectiveness of Rosas Jr’s wrestling does not necessarily stem from his technique but it is his aggression. A lot of high-level wrestlers take positions in a somewhat step-by-step process, but Rosas Jr’s wrestling is more of a savage rush to get into a submission position, and considering that Aoriqileng is fairly susceptible to submissions, we can’t help but think that Raul is going to make short work of the Mongolian Murderer.
Final Betting Analysis: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
Rosas Jr. is getting an easy match-up here, although we expect him to meet some fierce resistance on the feet as Aoriqileng is known for his punching power.
We have Rosas Jr. winning this one if he can waste no time and get straight to the wrestling because we are still quite iffy about his stand-up capabilities against a prolific KO artist like Aoriqileng.
EN 
ES 
PT 
PT_BR