UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Fight Card Odds and Picks

Things are about to go down for real, as we take a trip to Perth, Western Australia, to see the next numbered event, UFC 305, in which we not only get a pretty exciting clash for the Middleweight Championship Title but also get a banger of a main card, in which all of the bouts could lead to future title fights.

The main fight of the night sees the newly crowned champ, Dricus Du Plessis taking on Israel Adesanya, the man who held the belt before Sean Strickland. Now that Du Plessis finished business with Strickland, he wants to leave no doubts that he is the man who should hold the belt now.

In the Co-Main event, we get to see Kai Kara-France taking on Steve Erceg, in a Flyweight bout which could also be seen as a possible title eliminator which will point out the next opponent for the current champ, Alexandre Pantoja.

Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker will also be clashing on the octagon, as these two Lightweights are tough fighters who put it all on the line.

Besides that, a Heavyweight showdown between Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik is going to be an excellent way to build the hype up for the top-of-the-card fights.

This could be a shorter event than some others, as we will be getting 12 fights, with 7 being the prelims and the other 5 making the main card, but we have to point out that the event fills the things all fight fans would want in any numbered event card.

You can check all the  UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Fight Card Odds and Picks

When: 

Saturday, August 17th, at 6:30 pm ET

Moneyline odds

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC 305: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

Why Bet on Dricus Du Plessis?

Dricus du Plessis brings a versatile, unorthodox yet aggressive fighting style. He excels in mixing striking with grappling, often overwhelming opponents with his relentless pace and pressure.

DDP looks awkward at times but, somehow, his unique stance and style of fighting work for him so who is no one to criticize? Now there is an argument that he should not have won the title bout against Strickland, as it was a very close fight to call and both fighters were battered at the end of that fight in January.

Why Bet on Israel Adesanya?

Israel Adesanya is one of the best technical strikers the UFC has seen. Before his fight against Alex Pereira, he had a dominant run in the Middleweight division and could be seen as a worthy heir to Anderson Silva.

Known for his exceptional striking and tactical acumen, he utilizes his reach and speed to control the distance and land precise shots. We think he is the 2nd best middleweight champion of all time behind Anderson Silva even if his fighting style became kind of boring after winning the title but it’s understandable as he could comfortably win by outstriking his opponent from a distance.

His loss to Sean Strickland has got to be one of the biggest upsets in the sport and after taking a year-long break, he is ready to reclaim his spot at the top of the middleweight division.

Final Betting Analysis: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

Du Plessis’ style perfectly encapsulates the chaos that Adesanya hates. The latter thrives on counters and timing, and he has yet to face someone who strikes recklessly and from such odd angles and ranges, and it is near impossible to get a read on someone whose pages are blank.

We have seen a subtle change in the way Adesanya fights, he used to be fairly proactive in attacking but now he is much more of a counter-puncher, someone who is more than willing to glide around the cage until an opening presents itself, and that eventually led to his downfall when he lost to Strickland.

If Du Plessis can emulate that same pressure and pace for 5 rounds, we suspect that we will see him retain his belt.

UFC 305: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg

Why Bet on Kai Kara-France?

We’ve never been the biggest fan of Kai Kara-France, but we respect his skills as a well-rounded martial artist and striker. It’s hard to back up the idea that he’s at the elite level that the rest of Flyweight’s top 5 are.

He’s put in a few performances that have surprised us, like against Askarov and recently against Albazi, so maybe we are wrong about him.

Why Bet on Steve Erceg?

Erceg has proven himself worthy of the hype for his performance against Pantoja. We were dubious over whether it was too much, too soon, but he wasn’t far off winning that fight and claiming the belt.

He holds a big size advantage over Kara-France here, which will no doubt prove useful. However, Erceg is also quite hittable, and KKF is one of Flyweight’s harder hitters, which could be bad for him.

Final Betting Analysis: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg

All in all, high-level Flyweight fights are often tricky to cap, because both men are well-rounded and don’t provide any sort of clear stylistic advantages.

Erceg is bigger, but more hittable, whereas KKF is probably technically inferior but also very scrappy. This one should be close, with a slight advantage to Erceg, and we are taking that as our guide to back him up here. 

UFC 305: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker

Why Bet on Mateusz Gamrot?

We had Gamrot against Rafael dos Anjos, but we weren’t impressed with his performance. Given that he’s a top-five fighter in the division, we expected his wrestling and grappling to be good enough to defeat old-man RDA, who has historically struggled against pressure wrestlers.

We saw all that happened, but Gamrot got stung and knocked down by RDA early and lost the opening round. Not what you want from a big favorite.

Why Bet on Dan Hooker?

Hooker’s UFC career has been very strange and inconsistent. He has shown levels whenever he’s taken a significant step up in competition (against Barboza and Makhachev), but he’s also performing well when fighting down the rankings (like against Turner, Haqparast, and Puelles).

The outlier to that trend was his five-round war against Dustin Poirier, but we’d say that a fight like that between two brawlers often ends up becoming more competitive than their caliber on paper would indicate.

Final Betting Analysis: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker

This is probably the first time that Hooker has faced someone like Gamrot, who can hang with the best wrestlers in the division, so we are going to see that 80% TDD statistic be truly tested.

Now, even if Hooker can defend the initial takedowns from Gamrot, we think the sheer volume of takedowns that the latter uses when he fights is more than enough to break down Hooker. Often it’s not the effectiveness of one takedown that gets the win, but it’s the failure of five that leads to the inevitable and need one, and, we don’t know if Hookers gas tank can handle getting up numerous times and defend against the rapid onslaught of takedowns that will come his way.

We are backing Mateusz to get the win here if he keeps his aggressive pace going.

UFC 305: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Why Bet on Tai Tuivasa?

Tai Tuivasa is one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster, but he’s a guy whose star power is disproportionately greater than his talent.

Looking back through his UFC record, the most impressive things he has done so far are hurt Ciryl Gane, and knock out Derrick Lewis (who is a mirror matchup to him). Aside from that, his best UFC win is Augusto Sakai.

Why Bet on Jairzinho Rozenstruik?

There was once a time when Jairzinho Rozenstruik looked to be nothing but a similarly threatening boy… but to be fair to the Suriname fighter, he’s developed his skills and turned into a respectable top 15er.

His recent win against Gaziev was very impressive, as it showed his MMA evolution in stuffing takedowns and having the cardio to compete for 15 minutes. In fairness, his complete UFC record isn’t a whole lot different from Tuivasa, but there are at least wins over impressive and diverse fighters like JDS and Gaziev that weren’t just him switching the lights off inside 30 seconds (and there were great names in that regard too).

Final Betting Analysis: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

So this one is almost definitely going to be a striking affair, where both men have the power to end things in an instant.

However, if things elongate past the first 90 seconds, we think the diversity, defense, speed, cardio, and overall striking technicality of Rozenstruik should separate him as the superior fighter as the contest goes on. He just needs to stay safe long enough to show it.

UFC 305: Jingliang Li vs. Carlos Prates

Why Bet on Jingliang Li?

Li has been relatively inactive recently, so it’s difficult to see how much improvement he has made since his short-notice bout against Rodriguez, a fight he arguably won.

He has always been a very well-rounded fighter who utilizes great kickboxing and very strong wrestling to overwhelm his opponent, although he does typically keep the fight standing so he can land his very strong boxing attacks from a distance.

Why Bet on Carlos Prates?

Prates may not have been in the UFC for a long time leading up to this kind of opponent, but with back-to-back finishes, it’s hard to ignore the potential that he has.

He is going to have a clear kickboxing advantage coming into this fight. Also, he is going to rule the realm of range management and he could keep this as safe as possible and jab or teep at the range, but the problem is that he faces a relentless opponent who will constantly be in his face, throwing combinations and overwhelming him.

So we are either going to see Prates on the bicycle to maintain that reach advantage, or he is going to use his naked knee a whole lot during this fight and hopefully catch the chin of Li.

Final Betting Analysis: Jingliang Li vs. Carlos Prates

In conclusion, we think Prates is going to get a win here, he looks to be the more technical striker with a significant reach and height advantage. We expect Carlos to be more effective at a range in which Li will be mostly struggling, making Li take risks to deal damage.

Those risks are not going to pay off well and we are leaning on that to make the difference here.

UFC 305: Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker

Why Bet on Junior Tafa?

Tafa is coming off a tough loss against Rogerio de Lima in which he ate a nasty leg kick and just was completely shut down from then on. The main advantage that Tafa has in this fight is his striking, he is a fairly accomplished kickboxer, he is very sharp on the feet and he could very well give Walker a whole lot of trouble on the feet, but that is where the advantages stop.

It is going to be highly obvious once the fight starts that once Walker tastes the power of Tafa, there will be a good old-level change from Walker, and that will be the story of the fight. 

Why Bet on Valter Walker?

Walker is quite the buffoon as is his brother, both have the worst talent despite having bodies that in the ancient Greek era would lead them to be champions of the world.

Walker’s primary weapon comes from his takedowns, he is quite the powerful wrestler but his cardio is that of an asthmatic panda. He looks too tired after a couple of minutes.

The first round is most likely in which Walker dominates through powerful wrestling and some ragdolling (provided Tafa hasn’t improved since his recent loss). However, due to that output, we can’t help but imagine that Walker is going to need Greg Hardy’s USADA-approved asthma puffer in between rounds. 

Final Betting Analysis: Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker

In terms of clear advantages, Walker’s wrestling is going to be his main way to win this fight, and as long as the fight stays on the ground, Walker is likely going to be in a stronger position.

The main problem with that is that this will be in Australia, and Walker does not use a lot of ground and pound. That might result in the ref breaking them up and going back to a standing position in which Tafa will be pissed off and throw heavy attacks straight away.

That’s about as basic as we can make this fairly simplistic fight. Tafa has a clear striking advantage but has shown absolutely zero takedown defense nor any knowledge of how to wrestle. Walker might end up huffing and puffing his way through all three rounds if he can survive his opponent’s powerful strikes, which we don’t believe is going to happen.

UFC 305: Josh Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos

Why Bet on Josh Culibao?

Josh Culibao is dedicated, but technically not very good. He is reliable in biting down on the mouthpiece and scrap, but if he’s coming up against a superior technician, he will struggle minute by minute.

He hasn’t ever really dominated an opponent, as most of his wins are hard-fought 29-28s or splits.

Why Bet on Ricardo Ramos?

Ricardo Ramos is finally on his decline. It’s about time, the guy has been overrated for quite a long time. If he was American and his name was Rick Randall we wouldn’t have ever thought he was going to be anything.

Any fighter who does rabona kicks deserves to be cut instantly, as that technique simply does nothing.

Final Betting Analysis: Josh Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos

The good thing for Culibao is that we think Ricardo Ramos is the kind of mentally weaker fighter who can and will fold under pressure. All of his losses have come in the opening round, and he wilts when he is forced to be the nail.

The way he folded against Lerone Murphy stands out as a particularly bad moment, and his recent submission losses to Charles Jourdain and Julian Erosa are far from forgivable also.

Statistically, these two are very similar as strikers. Output, offense, and defense are very similar. The only difference between them is that Ricardo grapples much more, and that’s how Culibao has come unstuck in some fights.

The fact that Culibao doesn’t grapple nor look for submissions is a key aspect of this fight, as that’s exactly how Ramos might find the finish in this bout.

UFC 305: Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos

Why Bet on Casey O’Neill?

Casey O’Neill has decent grappling skills herself but she has been on a 2 fight-losing streak, losing to Jennifer Maia and Ariane Lipski. The thing is she is the hometown fighter, so, if this fight goes to the judges’ decision, they might give her the edge.

Why Bet on Luana Santos?

Luana Santos is coming on this fight as a favorite despite coming on short notice. She has won all 3 fights in the UFC so far and has a well-rounded game with good submissions. However, the UFC has given her easy opponents like Mariya Agapova who is not UFC level, and Juliana Miller who has a 3-3 record.

Final Betting Analysis: Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos

If Casey remembers who she is and comes out looking to shoot takedowns, we think she can still demonstrate that she is a top 15 fighter and the odds could look super incorrect.

Furthermore, we weren’t at all impressed with Santos’ striking so we think O’Neill could genuinely win a stand-up fight, even though we don’t rate her.

Let’s add that O’Neill enters this fight off the back of a full camp, and is an Aussie native that will have “home advantage.” Santos, on the other hand, comes in on short notice (and didn’t show the best cardio in her fight against Egger), and performs in a climate she’s probably not used to, at a time zone that’s foreign to her as well.

This is all a recipe for a Cassey O’Neill victory.

UFC 305: Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns

Why Bet on Jack Jenkins?

Jack Jenkins last fought around this time last year when he lost to Chepe Mariscal after he injured his arm following a nasty fall as both fighters were going to the ground.

The unfortunate event sidelined him for a year and we think the fight was even before the injury happened as Jenkins won round 1, while we’d believe Chepe was on his way to winning the 2nd round.

So, the UFC could not give any easier fight for him to come back from the long layoff in Herbert Burns.

Why Bet on Herbert Burns?

It seems like Herbert Burns is being kept by the UFC as talent enhancement. It is a pity because we think the younger Burns brother has the skills to be a UFC fighter, but he lacks the heart and toughness to survive at this level.

He seems to give up too easily at the first sign of adversity as shown when he quit against Bill Algeo and wilted easily against Julio Arce, another mediocre fighter.

Final Betting Analysis: Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns

Ultimately, the first round will be the most dangerous for Jenkins as that is where Burns can find a sneaky submission whilst both fighters are dry. It is probably also going to be the best round for the latter since his cardio falters afterward.

Jack ain’t much of a finisher, but this relies mainly on Burns folding after he’s done his five minutes of effort. If they’re at the stool at the end of R1, we would expect Jenkins to find a finish. 

UFC 305: Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes

Why Bet on Tom Nolan?

When you see the term glass cannon in the urban dictionary, you will see the picture of Tom Nolan.

He is capable of knocking out his opponents like in his previous win against Victor Martinez but even a terrible fighter like Nikolas Motta could knock him out in the first round. Martinez hurt him as well in the first round before being knocked out.

Why Bet on Alex Reyes?

Reyes has had a short stint in the UFC so far, but we suppose the unique aspect of his career has been the massive gap between his Mike Perry loss 6 years ago, and his recent loss against newcomer Campbell.

Reyes looks to be a decent fighter but we don’t think he’s a good UFC prospect. Instead, we think this is one of those fights where he is being fed to a wolf in Nolan, and when you see odds like that, it’s obvious that he is being doubted by many.

Final Betting Analysis: Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes

Alex Reyes had been away for 7 years, then got pulverized by Charlie Campbell. Tom Nolan is of a similar caliber by the looks of it, so we expect him to pulverize Reyes too.

This one is pretty clear and there is not too much else to say about it.

UFC 305: Kenan Song vs. Ricky Glenn

Why Bet on Kenan Song?

Kenan Song doesn’t inspire any confidence in his return. He’s 1-3 in his last four, and his UFC wins have come against complete nobodies.

He may not have the best record as of late, coming off a recent loss against Kevin Jousset, and it looks obvious that he struggles with reach disadvantage.

That problem won’t occur in this fight against Glenn, though, since he’s the slightly longer fighter, so we suspect we are going to see a classic Song fight full of heavy hits and dangerous action moments. 

Why Bet on Ricky Glenn?

Ricky Glenn may only be 35 years old, but the guy is looking old. An early KO loss to Drew Dober is nothing to be ashamed of, but Christos Giagos is a pretty simple task to beat if you’re as good a grappler as Glenn is.

His chin seems fragile, he’s slow, and he generally just doesn’t seem enthusiastic about the competition anymore.

Final Betting Analysis: Kenan Song vs. Ricky Glenn

Song is going to win. He has very heavy hands and has faced some top talent in Ian Garry and Max Griffin, so it’s not like he has been paired up against cans of the division.

On the flip side though, his takedown defense leaves a tiny bit to the imagination, but we suppose Glenn’s inability to get the fight to the ground during his UFC stint somewhat plays well into the rough takedown defense of Song.

Kenan Song should be taking the win here due to his striking.

UFC 305: Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Aguilar

Why Bet on Stewart Nicoll?

Stewart Nicoll is a promising prospect with solid grappling skills and plenty of finishes in the regional scene. But he is a UFC debutant so it’s hard to gauge how good he is. 

His career has solely taken place on the Aussie regional scene. His recent wins are against a 5-0 guy, an 8-4 guy, and a 3-3 guy.

Nicoll is primarily a wrestler who builds everything that he does up from the takedown, whether it’s the relentless control or the strong ground and pound, Nicoll is dangerous the moment he can wrap his arms around his opponent. 

Why Bet on Jesus Aguilar?

Jesus Aguilar is a guy that we don’t have a whole lot of strong opinions on – he looked like a pure grappler with no hands when he made his debut, then landed a KO in less than a minute.

Then he went up against a guy that I expected to have covered everywhere, and he hustled to a split against Mendonca. We think he’s evolving in front of us and that makes for a tricky guy to cap.

Final Betting Analysis: Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Aguilar

Aguilar is going to have the better overall striking since he is the superior boxer. He has phenomenal punching power, having knocked out a fairly tough opponent in Shannon Ross before his close win against Mendonca.

Aguilar’s main challenge in this fight is stopping the near-relentless pace of Nicoll, as those takedowns are going to be key for the latter to secure a victory. We hope Jesus has worked on his takedown defense since his last defeat.

If Aguilar isn’t on top of everything this weekend we are going to see him in bad positions throughout all three rounds until Nicoll lands a win in the judges’ cards (if the fight even makes it that far).

Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Betting Pick: Dricus Du Plessis

Kara-France vs. Erceg Betting Pick: Steve Erceg

Gamrot vs. Hooker Betting Pick: Mateusz Gamrot

Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik Betting Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Li vs. Prates Betting Pick: Carlos Prates

Tafa vs. Walker Betting Pick: Junior Tafa

Culibao vs. Ramos Betting Pick: Josh Culibao

O’Neill vs. Santos Betting Pick: Luana Santos

Jenkins vs. Burns Betting Pick: Jack Jenkins

Nolan vs. Reyes Betting Pick: Tom Nolan

Song vs. Glenn Betting Pick: Kenan Song

Nicoll vs. Aguilar Betting Pick: Stewart Nicoll