We are getting ready to take a trip to the Co-Op Live Arena in Manchester, England, as we get an exciting numbered event from the UFC 304. This time, we’ll have two titles on the line, along with other fights that will have the locals rallied up!
The main event is an interesting rematch, which will have the UFC Welterweight Championship at stake, as Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad face off once again after their bout back in March 2021, where the fight was ruled a no-contest due to an eye-poke at the start of round 2.
We not only have an interesting main event but also an explosive rematch of heavyweights as Tom Aspinall defends the Interim Heavyweight Championship Title against Curtis Blaydes, who won their last encounter due to Aspinall Injuring his knee in the first 15 seconds of the fight.
Besides that, the Locals will be hyped to see that Paddy “The Baddie” Pimblett will be fighting Bobby Green in the main card, and they will also get Christian Leroy Duncan, Arnold Allen, Nathaniel Wood, Molly McCann, Jake Hadley, and Mick Parkin to represent their country in this event.
We have 5 main card fights and 9 prelims to get this event going and get the arena shaking.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 Fight Card Odds and Info
| Leon Edwards 1.332 | Belal Muhammad 3.34 |
| Tom Aspinall 1.29 | Curtis Blaydes 3.68 |
| Bobby Green 1.82 | Paddy Pimblett 2.022 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan 1.68 | Gregory Rodrigues 2.166 |
| Arnold Allen 1.4 | Giga Chikadze 3 |
| Nathaniel Wood 1.232 | Daniel Pineda 4.05 |
| Molly McCann 1.28 | Bruna Brasil 3.64 |
| Caolán Loughran 1.48 | Jake Hadley 2.626 |
| Modestas Bukauskas 1.67 | Marcin Prachnio 2.178 |
| Oban Elliott 2.1 | Preston Parsons 1.71 |
| Muhammad Mokaev 1.667 | Manel Kape 2.314 |
| Sam Patterson 1.232 | Kiefer Crosbie 4.05 |
| Mick Parkin 1.32 | Łukasz Brzeski 3.35 |
| Shauna Bannon 1.53 | Alice Ardelean 2.536 |
| When? | Saturday, July 27th, at 6:00 pm ET, 5:00 pm CST, 4:00 pm MT, 3:00 pm PT |
| Where? | Co-Op Live Arena in Manchester, England |
| Where can I watch it? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Why Bet on Leon Edwards?
Leon Edwards has always been an impressive and elite fighter, but we’re still concerned about his takedown defense. Yes, it looked great against Usman, but we firmly believe that Kamaru lost a lot of himself when he lost the title, and he hasn’t come back as the same guy.
Edwards managed to go over Usman in the rematch and then beat Colby Covington, so he is looking to be on good momentum as the champ.
Why Bet on Belal Muhammad?
Belal has been a world-beater since the start, but since he’s been asked to step up against Wonderboy, Luque, and Burns, we thought he was going to be soundly beaten. We did pick him against Brady, but even then I had no clue he was going to score a finish!
The reason for the former three was mainly because of finishing ability or just general striking ability. We didn’t think Belal deserved to be the favorite in those matchups. Perhaps he was fortunate to face Wonderboy when the takedown defense had finally cracked, or when Luque had just started his steep decline… but we’ve got anything to discredit the performance against Burns, it was seriously impressive.
Final Betting Analysis: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
The questions here are if Belal’s wrestling/grappling is at a good enough level to match the caliber that Usman had in the second fight with Leon, or if the striking he showed in the Burns fight is going to be good enough to get the better of the champ here.
It’s hard to have the confidence to say, but the current champ has looked solid and we are going to lean on that consistency here.
UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
Why Bet on Tom Aspinall?
Aspinall has not faced a takedown attempt from either Tybura or Pavlovich since the first match. He could still have the worst takedown defense we have ever seen in UFC history.
Of course, that’s a hyperbolic statement, but let me remind you that we had no idea Ciryl Gane was as bad a defensive grappler as he is until he faced Francis Ngannou for the belt, seven fights into his UFC career. It is still a possibility and one that anyone betting on Tom Aspinall will conveniently ignore this week.
Why Bet on Curtis Blaydes?
Curtis Blaydes’ reputation as a reliable and tricky-to-beat wrestler has diminished since that first fight. Blaydes went into his next bout against Pavlovich, the scariest one-punch guy in the UFC aside from The Black Beast, and stood with him for three minutes. We think that was possibly the worst UFC performance we have ever seen. It almost felt rigged.
Blaydes followed that up by beating Jailton Almeida in a bit of a flukey way, but we don’t think Blaydes was going to offensively wrestle in that one anyway. In his defense, Blaydes showed in that Almeida fight that he’s a decent enough defensive grappler, should his opponent initiate the exchange. Yes, he was taken down 9 times, but he didn’t allow Jailton to set up any sort of positions.
Final Betting Analysis: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
If Aspinall tries to offensively wrestle Curtis, we think there’s a good indication the Englishman may deplete his cardio trying to make that work.
If this one ends up being a kickboxing match for three minutes, then Aspinall deserves to be the favorite and Blaydes will get down just like he did against Pavlovich.
We’re picking Aspinall to win here because he’s got the form, the speed, and the dangerousness to end this early. We also believe Blaydes has awful game planning and fight IQ and it does have relevance.
UFC 304: Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
Why Bet on Bobby Green?
Bobby Green has always been a decent anti-wrestler/grappler. The only person we can remember having major success against him in recent years was Islam, and we don’t think Green was ever mentally invested in that fight, to begin with.
On the feet, we think there’s a clear technical advantage in his favor. He’ll be walking forward, throwing straight shots, and forcing Paddy to be on his bike.
Why Bet on Paddy Pimblett?
We think we have a hard time seeing Pimblett dominate with grappling here. He could land a couple and spend some time chilling in full guard like he did against Ferguson, but we just don’t think we see Pimblett try too hard to force the fight to the floor.
The key path to victory from Pimblett is going to appear when he gets in close and just decides to go full rabies. He’s a good fighter in those chaotic moments, and Bobby Green showed he can be got at in those exchanges. Scousers also don’t get knocked out, as we know, so Paddy can likely sit in the pocket and swing with more confidence than his foe can.
Final Betting Analysis: Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
The Scouser can have success with his leg and body kicks like he did against Ferguson in the opening round, but we’re quite sure that Green will be winning minutes if they remain at a kickboxing range.
So with all that in mind, we think you have to give the favouritism to Bobby Green. If they have chaotic moments in the pocket, he is still capable of landing the kill shot himself, so Paddy’s main path also puts him at risk. Outside of those moments, we believe Green can put on a classic performance at range, and we don’t expect the striking of Pimblett to be able to hang with that.
UFC 304: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Why Bet on Christian Leroy Duncan?
Christian Leroy Duncan is a bit of a meme fighter who’s managed to do far better than we’d expected in the UFC. His Cage Warriors regional career was him just stomping on cans with overly flashy striking.
He never seemed like a serious mixed martial artist and is the middleweight Michael Venom Page. However, after getting hit with a setback against Armen Petrosyan, CLD has come back with a renewed sense of purpose and appears to have reeled in the flashiness.
We hope for his sake that he maintains that here because he’s going to need a lot of composure.
Why Bet on Gregory Rodrigues?
Rodrigues is the more interesting fighter of the two, because his ceiling is high, and his floor is really low. He’s got powerful and overall decent striking, and his grappling/submission game is one of the division’s most effective.
But unfortunately, he’s also a chaotic fighter with a bad chin. He got dropped and wobbled in multiple fights before Bruno Ferreira finally put his lights out, and now it’s a badly kept secret.
Final Betting Analysis: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
There’s no doubt that Duncan is the better striker, but it’s how he’s going to handle the grappling threat that makes this one interesting. Rodrigues is legit, and we saw from his win over Denis Tiuliulin how he handles an opponent that’s not on his level in terms of grappling. Given he’s fighting a flashy UK striker, you’d think that he could probably land one takedown and find a submission in the first round if the opportunity presents itself.
The issue is that Duncan’s grappling defense is still a massive unknown. He got taken down once by Petrosyan and looked a bit lost at the bottom. Aside from that, he’s faced one other takedown, so we can’t take too much from it. He does have a kicking offense that can be exploited though.
The question behind Dunkan’s defensive game is what places our bids on Gregory Rodriguez.
UFC 304: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
Why Bet on Arnold Allen?
Allen’s well-roundedness kind of puts him in a weird position at Featherweight. We’ve often said that the division is filled with well-rounded folks who choose to strike, but Allen is amongst the more diverse.
He sits firmly behind the Holloways/Volkanovskis/Topurias of the world, but we think he sits above the Emmetts/Iges/Yusuffs. Certain wildcards in the division are almost exclusively grapplers, like the Evloevs/Mitchells, and they’ll also give Allen problems.
Why Bet on Giga Chikadze?
We’ve always respected Giga’s striking ability, and there aren’t many times you’d have caught us trying to fade him against a striker. Unfortunately, he faces a tricky test in a guy like Allen who can lean on whatever skillset he needs to, to get the job done.
Final Betting Analysis: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
Interesting fight here between a well-rounded competitor in Arnold Allen and a one-dimensional technician in Giga Chikadze.
Against a pure striker, we just think it’s going to be Allen’s fight to lose. He might not be a vastly superior striker to Giga, but he’s good enough to at least bridge the gap and keep things very competitive.
He held his own against Kattar (who destroyed Giga), and he even sort of held his own against Max. However, when it comes to grappling, Allen is a significant way ahead of Chikadze.
UFC 304: Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda
Why Bet on Nathaniel Wood?
Nathaniel Wood is again getting a favorable matchup against a washed-up striker on home turf. We tried to bet Andre Fili last time we were here and we think it was a value bet, but Wood did what was expected of him.
His last performance was pretty shocking. Losing to Naimov in that fashion was a bit embarrassing. We know his opponent cheated heavily, but Wood left it too late to turn up. He’s a flakey guy, we should have known not to trust him there.
Why Bet on Daniel Pineda?
Pineda’s very scrappy and will surprise you if you overlook him, but at this age, he’s not got the speed or durability to compete with guys who are typically 5+ years young (eight on this occasion).
This match could be an issue for him but he comes ready to try and pull the upset.
Final Betting Analysis: Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda
On paper, it looks like it could be competitive, but Wood will be a few steps ahead and should be able to do the better work.
On this occasion we think he’s more steps ahead of his opponent than he was against Fili, so we’re not going to be looking to fade him. Pineda demands respect, but if Wood takes him seriously he should be the comfortable winner.
UFC 304: Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil
Why Bet on Molly McCann?
Really glad Molly has managed to turn things around for herself. She’s a fighter we have always had a soft spot for because she’s a proper working-class Englishwoman who gives her all and uses her platform for good.
She’s also one of the most fun WMMA fighters the UFC has ever had. Regardless, her latest performance against Belbita was one of her best.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, as she had a massive stylistic edge against a woman she’d already beaten.
Why Bet on Bruna Brasil?
Brasil is a bit of an unknown quantity and stranger things have happened (especially with Molly, who is prone to putting in duff performances every so often) but we don’t have much to judge on this side.
The thing is that Molly is the better fighter, so Brasil may have trouble.
Final Betting Analysis: Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil
A win for Molly here would see her avenge her team-mate Shauna Bannon, who lost in that double debut against Brasil last time we were in England. It was a pretty underwhelming fight from both parties. If it was Molly fighting that night, we are very confident she would have had the experience and well-roundedness to get the win.
UFC 304: Caolán Loughran vs. Jake Hadley
Why Bet on Caolán Loughran?
Loughran is a decent, well-rounded fighter, but he excels mainly in the wrestling/grappling department.
His striking should prove to be dangerous enough to keep his opponent on the back pedal, only to then push with his other skills.
Why Bet on Jake Hadley?
Hadley is well-rounded enough, but he’s too keen to fight off his back and is probably inferior to Caolán everywhere except pure BJJ.
This might be quite an issue for him as he may be undergoing one hell of a fight this Saturday.
Final Betting Analysis: Caolán Loughran vs. Jake Hadley
We are keeping this one pretty short, but see Loughran dominating in this clash with ease, taking a win and increasing his confidence going forward in the division.
UFC 304: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
Why Bet on Modestas Bukauskas?
Modestas Bukauskas isn’t that guy. He’s scored just one finish in seven UFC fights, and it was the dodgy one against Michailidis with the Travis Browne elbows and cage door incident. Other than that, Modestas is a distance striker who wants to point fight and edge out the pocket minute-by-minute.
The problem for Modestas is that he’s not even very good at that. He has a negative strike differential in the UFC, and he’s only realistically outstruck one opponent.
Why Bet on Marcin Prachnio?
Marcin impressed in that win over Devin Clark. Getting out grappled is usually his kryptonite, but he showed good game planning and technical striking to fight well on his bike and keep things standing.
Prachnio’s weakness has always been physically imposing strikers who will walk him down and throw bombs. He wilts under that pressure and doesn’t have the firepower to compete in that department, so he gets run through.
Final Betting Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
On the defensive, Bukauskas and Prachnio’s numbers are similar, but Prachnio has the advantage here.
So it’s a close fight, yes, but Prachnio has the better UFC record, andthe better statistics, and stylistically he is facing an opponent that doesn’t pose the threats he usually succumbs to.
Also, as a minor point, we don’t fear the bias of home advantage for Modestas. Bukauskas is from greater London and is as English as they come, but most folks think he’s East-European because of his name, his nickname (Baltic Gladiator), and the fact he represents Lithuania.
UFC 304: Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons
Why Bet on Oban Elliott?
Oban Elliott doesn’t have a very high ceiling in the UFC. He was brought in through DWCS on the merit of being a tough fighter who fought through damage. That’s a terrible base to start your UFC career because all it tells us is that you’re a liability and should probably have lost. He’s a tenacious guy and seems to be well-rounded enough, but we’ll be damned if we trust him until we see more.
Why Bet on Preston Parsons?
Preston Parsons is a guy we’re more familiar with, but that’s because he’s extremely one-dimensional. He’s a pressure wrestler who doesn’t do a whole lot with his top control time, and his cardio isn’t bulletproof. We can imagine it won’t take a lot to get the better of him, just good takedown defense and 15 minutes’ worth of cardio.
Final Betting Analysis: Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons
Unfortunately, there’s little to no tape of Elliott defending takedowns and anti-grappling at this level, so this fight leaves us with more questions than answers. We’re intrigued to find out more about Elliott, so don’t believe there’s enough knowledge floating around to figure out how he handles a specific style.
Even if the footage is out there from his regional days, it’s a cut below Parsons, so it can only be taken with a pinch of salt. We think the latter will getthe win here.
UFC 304: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape
Why Bet on Muhammad Mokaev?
We’ve been quite critical of Mokaev in recent fights, stating that whilst he’s been winning he’s had moments where things could have easily fallen apart.
He was down against Tim Elliott on the scorecards before Tim capitulated, he could/should have tapped to the Filho leg lock, and he even struggled to finish Malcolm Gordon.
We still can’t deny that this is a stylistically favorable matchup for him, perhaps one of the easiest ones he’s had in the UFC.
Why Bet on Manel Kape?
Manel Kape is a striker with a high finishing rate. He’s 3-4 in decisions and one of those wins came most recently in the tepid performance against Felipe dos Santos.
Kape isn’t very good at defending the takedown proposition of his opponents. Yes, he defended five of five in his last fight, but the level of opposition isn’t comparable. Matheus Nicolau had success with wrestling in the opening round of his fight against him, and, before the UFC, he was spending a lot of time on his back in Rizin. It seems the oddsmakers forgot about that part, seeing as it had been so long.
Final Betting Analysis: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape
Don’t get us wrong, Kape is dangerous, and this won’t be an easy fight for Mokaev. However, the two things we know that “The Punisher” has are wrestling and cardio.
We think Mokaev can use both of these in this fight, which will mean that Kape’s chances of using his best asset (finishing ability) will be greatly diminished, and it might simply give the nod to Mokaev.
UFC 304: Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie
Why Bet on Sam Patterson?
Sam Patterson is a fighter, and he’s got some pretty decent skills. The only problem is that his style lends itself towards chaotic brawls, and he is forced to live and die by the sword. He found that out the hard way when he got destroyed by Yanal Ashmouz at last year’s UK show.
Patterson should win as he is the superior martial artist if he fights smart, though, but it doesn’t seem to be in his nature so it’s pretty hard to trust him.
Why Bet on Kiefer Crosbie?
On his last time out, the world found out that Kiefer Crosbie is not going to be able to hang on UFC level for long. We have no idea how we got a bettable price on Kevin Jousset to beat him, the man is a Conor McGregor cosplayer who isn’t a real martial artist.
He did an exhibition boxing match with that Geordie Shore turned MMA fighter Aaron Chalmers just two months before his UFC debut. The guy is not a real fighter.
Final Betting Analysis: Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie
A guy like Patterson can never be -300 unless he’s fighting a pillow-fisted opponent. Kiefer Crosbie, for all his many, many flaws, is not pillow-fisted. He has 5 KO wins to his name and is willing to scrap.
However, we believe that won’t be enough, and think Patterson will get a close victory.
UFC 304: Mick Parkin vs. Łukasz Brzeski
Why Bet on Mick Parkin?
Parkin’s UFC career hasn’t been particularly exciting to date, but it’s hard to ignore a heavyweight who has strung together three straight wins while being on the right side of 30.
More of an athlete than he appears, the Englishman got by on the regional scene by swamping his opponents with his size and pace, and that has mostly held since he made it to the UFC in 2023.
While Parkin was typically able to find a finish against regional competition, in the UFC, his fights have mostly turned into tedious kickboxing matches where opponents haven’t been able to shake him off of his game.
Why Bet on Łukasz Brzeski?
Brzeski is currently coming off his long-awaited first UFC win. “The Bull” has been a fighter who has looked solid on paper but had trouble turning his skills into actual success.
He’s a tall striker with some snap that can pick up steam as his fights go on, but his lack of defense and questionable durability held him back until a decision win over Valter Walker in April.
Final Betting Analysis: Mick Parkin vs. Łukasz Brzeski
This figures to settle into a high-paced somewhat tepid striking match where both men can get some work done. It could go either way, but it is the type of fight Parkin has been winning lately.
We believe Parkin will be the one coming out of this bout with his hand raised.
UFC 304: Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean
Why Bet on Shauna Bannon?
Shauna Bannon may have looked awful in her UFC debut, but she’s not that bad. She’s green, and it seems the jitters got the better of her, but we think she’s capable of getting a couple of UFC wins.
She seems to be taking her career seriously, she’s Irish…and she’s not afraid to make herself ‘marketable’ without jumping off the Onlyfans dee-pend.
Why Bet on Alice Ardelean?
This new girl that’s been brought in has the potential to be one of the worst caliber fighters to even get into the UFC. She’s 32, has a 9-5 record, and hasn’t competed for any recognizable promotion.
Her last win was against an 0-3 opponent and her record comes in two halves. The early half is full of losses that contain some notable names, including Diana Belbita, Cristina Stanciu, and Weili Zhang. She lost all three.
At some point, we think she must have decided to be an MMA fighter for the clout, instead of taking things seriously. She competed in a knockoff version of TUF. She’s an Onlyfans girl and proudly mentions it in interviews. She’s basically in the same headspace as PVZ these days.
Final Betting Analysis: Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean
We think Bannon is marketable enough for the UFC to want to get a win here. There are probably quite a few women already on the UFC’s books who would have wanted to take on Bannon on short notice after that debut, but instead, the UFC sourced locally and picked up a can.
We do not expect Ardelean to be able to hang in there and she will be fed like a lamb to slau
Edwards vs. Muhammad Betting Pick: Leon Edwards
Aspinall vs. Blaydes Betting Pick: Tom Aspinall
Green vs. Pimblett Betting Pick: Bobby Green
Duncan vs. Rodrigues Betting Pick: Gregory Rodriguez
Allen vs. Chikadze Betting Pick: Arnold Allen
Wood vs. Pineda Betting Pick: Nathaniel Wood
McCann vs. Brasil Betting Pick: Molly McCann
Loughran vs. Hadley Betting Pick: Caolán Loughran
Bukauskas vs. Prachnio Betting Pick: Marcin Prachnio
Elliott vs. Parsons Betting Pick: Preston Parsons
Mokaev vs. Kape Betting Pick: Muhammad Mokaev
Patterson vs. Crosbie Betting Pick: Sam Patterson
Parkin vs. Brzeski Betting Pick: Michael Parkin
Bannon vs. Ardelean Betting Pick: Shauna Bannon
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