The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada is preparing to host another exciting numbered event for the UFC 303. Still, this event has been changing fights, with 5 total fights being switched around, including the former main event, in which “The Notorious” Conor McGregor was set to face Michael “Iron” Chandler.
Once that fight fell off, the hopes for a banger of a main event fell for a while, but the current bout features LightHeavyweight Champion Alex Pereira, who stepped up to the plate, putting his title on the line once again on short notice to save this event, and with him, came Jirí Procházca, who also takes this short notice chance to get this rematch.
Besides an emergency main event, we also have to point out that the co-main is going to be interesting. Especially, for the Grappling-focused fans, as Brian “Triangle City” Ortega faces a fellow BJJ specialist in Diego Lopes, in a clash that may go to really high levels on the floor.
We also have to point out that even with the main event changed and some other fights having to be reworked, this fight card, which sports 14 bouts, is stacked to the brim with a ton of talent. We have clashes like Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael “Venom” Page in the main card, and others like Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili and Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday in between the prelims.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks
When:
Saturday, June 29th, at 6:00 pm ET
Moneyline odds
Alex Pereira 1.67 / Jiří Procházka 2.228
Brian Ortega 2.16 / Diego Lopes 1.71
Anthony Smith 2.19 / Roman Dolidze 1.69
Mayra Bueno Silva 1.87 / Macy Chiasson 1.94
Ian Machado Garry 1.686 / Michael Page 2.211
Joe Pyfer 1.33 / Marc-André Barriault 3.285
Cub Swanson 2.914 / Andre Fili 1.41
Charles Jourdain 1.78 / Jean Silva 2
Payton Talbott 1.051 / Yanis Ghemmouri 9.2
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 2.497 / Gillian Robertson 1.53
Andrei Arlovski 3.06 / Martin Buday 1.373
Carlos Hernandez 4.625 / Rei Tsuruya 1.191
Ricky Simón 1.44 / Vinicius Oliveira 2.752
Where can I watch it?
UFC Fight Pass
UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka
Why Bet on Alex Pereira?
Alex Pereira is a special striker as he has this unique ability to generate a lot of power in his strikes with minimal rotational movement.
Anyone who learned martial arts has been taught that we generate power in our strikes by twisting the hips. But when Pereira throws his signature hooks or left kicks, notice his hips remain square and he does not twist them as almost every fighter does.
This is what makes him a deadly striker because not only can he hit hard, but the strikes that his opponents do not anticipate are the strikes that can put their lights out.
Why Bet on Jiří Procházka?
Jiri is a very dangerous striker himself as seen from his latest win against Rakic. He has a very unique style where he takes the hits with his head to enable him to move forward and swarm his opponents.
Procházka is a very dangerous fighter once he gets some momentum and goes in to launch his devastating strikes to knock out his opponents.
There is a path to victory for him here, as he had some success with taking Pereira down in his first fight and we think he should go for a grapple-heavy gameplan to give himself the best chance of winning.
Final Betting Analysis: Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka
Now I think the issue here is that, stylistically, Alex Pereira is a bad matchup for Jiri. The latter’s strategy of letting his opponent kick his legs or hit him in the head will not work.
Jiri will not be able to take those leg kicks for 5 rounds and once he gains forward momentum, it makes him vulnerable to the counter left hook from Pereira.
Now, the fighters are fighting on only two weeks’ notice which is interesting although it may give a slight advantage to Jiri as Pereira was on tour in Australia just last week.
Alex Pereira here is the better striker, and despite Jiri having the power to knock him out, we are not confident that he can reinvent himself for this fight to rein in his instincts and not play into Pereira’s strengths.
We can see another knockout victory in another exciting fight and have to side with Alex Pereira to get another knockout victory.
UFC 303: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
Why Bet on Brian Ortega?
Brian Ortega is a savvy veteran who only loses to the elites in his division like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. He had an impressive victory over Yair Rodriguez after a two-year layoff from injury, finishing his opponent by submission.
Ortega was losing that fight early before making a comeback in the latter rounds by utilizing his formidable grappling.
Why Bet on Diego Lopes?
Diego Lopes has displayed a string of impressive performances since losing his debut to Movsar Evloev.
Lopes is huge, has powerful punches, and has incredible submission skills. This lethal combination makes him a dangerous and exciting fighter in the Octagon as he is a threat both on the feet and on the ground. However, Evloev seems to have shown how to contain him.
Final Betting Analysis: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
Lopes is a very dangerous 1st round fighter and if Ortega can survive, his chances against him will increase, but grappling with Diego Lopes is a different beast from his previous opponents.
Diego is a massive featherweight who also packs more power in his strikes than Rodrigues. We are picking Diego Lopes here as we truly believe he has the talent to be a top contender in this division.
Lopes’ physicality and power will be too much for Ortega to overcome especially if he can keep the fight standing.
UFC 303: Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze
Why Bet on Anthony Smith?
Anthony Smith looked washed in his recent fights before pulling the rabbit out of the hat by finding the guillotine submission in the first round against Vitor Petrino. The latter made the dumb mistake of slamming Smith and making the choke tighter.
That impressive victory got him another spot in the main card against another terrifying prospect in Carlos Ulberg, but that clash fell.
Smith was once a top contender in this division and has beaten many top opponents. However, his career peaked in his title fight against Jon Jones and his chin has looked vulnerable recently. He has managed to hang near the top with his grappling skills and veteran savvy.
Why Bet on Roman Dolidze?
Roman’s striking hasn’t looked that great, but Dolidze’s aggressive style and power could pose significant problems for the aging Smith.
If Dolidze can pressure Smith early and utilize his striking power, he may find some success, but he will need to work at his best quickly because size will matter.
Final Betting Analysis: Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze
Anthony Smith is the bigger and more skilled fighter at least when it comes to grappling. He has a path to victory if he uses his size and experience to take the fight to the ground where he can exploit Dolidze’s defensive gaps.
We believe in this fight we will see Anthony Smith use all the tools in his MMA kit to mix up his game with his striking to win this fight.
UFC 303: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson
Why Bet on Mayra Bueno Silva?
Mayra Bueno Silva is known for her aggressive striking and high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. She excels in submission grappling and has a dangerous ground game, often looking to secure submissions from various positions.
Why Bet on Macy Chiasson?
Macy Chiasson, on the other hand, is a well-rounded fighter with a strong striking base and good grappling skills. She uses her reach advantage effectively, maintaining distance and landing significant strikes from the outside.
Chiasson’s clinch work and ability to control opponents against the cage limit are notable strengths. However, her ground game, particularly her submission defense, has shown vulnerabilities in past fights.
Final Betting Analysis: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson
This is possibly one of the toughest fights to predict in this card. Both women are tough and we think it depends on where the fight goes. Silva has very impressive submission skills, but if the takedown does not work, she is going to be lit up on the feet by Chiasson.
We are going with Chiasson because she has only been submitted once in her career and it was when she was standing as Raquel Pennington applied the guillotine choke on her. So, we believe she will be able to keep this fight on her feet and do her best.
UFC 303: Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page
Why Bet on Ian Machado Garry?
Ian Machado Garry is a young, rising star who does back up having fun with his striking skills. He can use his reach advantage effectively to control the distance and pace of the fight. He has put up an impressive winning streak in the UFC, going undefeated while defeating decent opponents like Geoff Neal and Neil Magny.
Garry is a very talented striker and he has gotten under the skin of his opponents with Connor-inspired trolling tactics
Why Bet on Michael Page?
Michael Page, known as “MVP,” is a flashy and unorthodox striker with incredible speed and precision. He beat Kevin Holland in his own game in the previous fight by taunting him and outstriking him.
Lord Voldemort does have a tremendous speed which overwhelmed even the athletic Kevin Holland. Also, his unorthodox striking technique is a puzzle that has quite a big difficulty.
Final Betting Analysis: Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page
This is going to be the most fun fight of the card and we cannot wait to see the clash of the trolls.
Ian Garry is used to using his reach to his advantage but he won’t have that here as MVP has the reach advantage. He also probably has the quickness advantage, so Garry will not be able to impose his usual fighting style.
We think, if Ian Garry wants to keep his undefeated record intact and continue to move up the rankings, he might need to resort to his grappling as Holland has shown that is a part of his game that is lacking. Now, can he catch the elusive MVP swallow his pride, and abandon the striking battle?
We don’t know if we can trust Ian Garry to implement a grappling-heavy gameplan in this fight, but we believe MVP will outstrike him on the feet over the 3 rounds if he keeps it standing.
UFC 303: Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-André Barriault
Why Bet on Joe Pyfer?
Joe Pyfer is known for his powerful striking and finishing ability. He has knockout power in his hands and is aggressive in his approach, often looking to end the fight early. But Jack Hermansson showed that he was not ready for prime time and neutralized him in the 5 round main event.
Now, arguably, if it was a 3 rounder Pyfer would have a case for winning the fight. It seems like he is one of those who is explosive and dangerous but lacks the endurance to keep up the pace in the latter rounds.
Why Bet on Marc-André Barriault?
Marc-André Barriault, on the other hand, is a durable veteran with a well-rounded skill set. He has a decent striking, with a focus on volume and pressure. Barriault is one tough cookie and can withstand significant damage, having only been knocked out once in his career.
If this was a 5 round fight, he would stand a better chance of winning.
Final Betting Analysis: Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-André Barriault
We are picking Pyfer here as the most likely winner. Most of this fight will be a brawl on the feet and over 3 rounds, and we think he can land more strikes and cause more damage than Barriault.
Pyfer may not necessarily be able to put away Barriault easily like his previous opponents. But he should win 2 out of 3 rounds in striking battle as he is the more powerful striker.
UFC 303: Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili
Why Bet on Cub Swanson?
Cub Swanson, a veteran in the featherweight division, brings a wealth of experience and a dynamic striking arsenal to the octagon. Known for his creative and unorthodox striking, Swanson excels in mixing up his attacks, keeping opponents guessing.
His ground game is solid, though not his primary weapon. But Cub is 40 now and, arguably, should have lost his last fight against Hakeem Dawodu.
Why Bet on Andre Fili?
Andre Fili, on the other hand, is not the most durable fighter himself as his chin can be a little suspect despite having good striking skills. His main weakness is inconsistency; Fili has struggled to string together significant winning streaks, often faltering against higher-level competition.
Final Betting Analysis: Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili
Fili’s ability to mix striking and wrestling could pose challenges for Swanson, especially if he can control the pace and avoid getting drawn into a brawl with Swanson’s powerful striking. Swanson, on the other hand, will look to utilize his experience and striking diversity to keep Fili guessing and capitalize on openings.
Cub Swanson is too long in the tooth and has been through too many wars. Andre Fili will be our pick as he is the younger, fresher fighter who is inconsistent but should still be good enough to beat the old man.
UFC 303: Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva
Why Bet on Charles Jourdain?
Charles Jourdain is a decent fighter with a well-rounded skillset. He can be inconsistent sometimes and does not have powerful hands but his cardio allows him to maintain a high output throughout the fight, making him a decent enough fighter at the UFC level.
Why Bet on Jean Silva?
There are still a lot of questions surrounding Jean Silva as he was handed one of the worst fighters, jobber Westin Wilson, for his first fight.
It seems he has a lot of finishes in the regional scene but beating up jobbers and cans is a different ball game to fighting in the UFC.
Final Betting Analysis: Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva
Charles Jourdain is my pick here as he has a lot more experience at the UFC level despite his inconsistency. He is not fighting in Canada so he should be reliable enough.
Jourdain uses faints to set up his striking, and that makes us feel like Jean Silvia’s striking is at a huge disadvantage. Charles also has an underrated ground game to negate anything Silva throws at him in that department so it should be pretty clear.
UFC 303: Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri
Why Bet on Payton Talbott?
Payton Talbott is a talented prospect with great striking which he displayed when he dismantled Cameron Saimaan with ease. He is the biggest favorite on this card and the UFC probably wanted to showcase him on the same card as Connor to build up his hype.
Why Bet on Yanis Ghemmouri?
Yanis is a Sacrificial lamb in this fight. The French fighter comes from a loss in his debut via KO handed to him by fellow French man William Gomis via a Body kick last year.
We do not think this is going to be a nice match for him, and things are pretty clear that the underdog is going to have a tough night out.
Final Betting Analysis: Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri
The UFC is giving Talbott a layup here by giving him Yanis Ghemmouri who may not even be a UFC level fighter. We don’t have much to say besides thinking Talbott should win this squash match easily in a quick fashion and continue to build on his hype.
UFC 303: Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson
Why Bet on Michelle Waterson-Gomez?
Michelle Waterson was once a prospect in the division, but right now, she has lost 6 out of her last 7 fights and should just give up fighting for her other sources of income.
She got her face brutalized in her last fight against Marina Rodriguez as the referee did not stop the bout and “allowed her to be a warrior”.
Why Bet on Gillian Robertson?
Gillian Robertson is taking her fighting career way more seriously than Michelle Waterson-Gomez. She is also a solid fighter with a decent ground game and we think she will dominate Waterson-Gomez once she gets the takedown.
Final Betting Analysis: Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson
Waterson-Gomez lacks significant striking power, which might give Robertson a slight edge in the stand-up exchanges.
Additionally, Robertson’s ground game is among the best in the women’s divisions, so we can anticipate Robertson taking the fight to the ground, where she will either secure a submission victory or control Waterson-Gomez
UFC 303: Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday
Why Bet on Andrei Arlovski?
The veteran has had a long decorated 10-year career in the UFC but he is 45 years old, and that is old even for a heavyweight. He was a good fighter but is currently on a 3-year losing streak and we start to think Father Time is calling for his number.
Why Bet on Martin Buday?
Martin Buday is another one of those slightly fat heavyweights that is nothing special but he has won 4 out of his 5 fights in the UFC and at this point, he should be good enough to beat an aging opponent. As long as he is not gunshy from his loss against Gaziev.
Final Betting Analysis: Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday
Even though we do not like goodbyes, we think Buday will beat Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski, and hopefully after this fight, he can walk away and enjoy his well-deserved retirement.
A tough match for a tougher fighter who has been through a ton and done it all.
UFC 303: Carlos Hernandez vs. Rei Tsuruya
Why Bet on Carlos Hernandez?
Hernandez has had 4 fights in the UFC with a 2-2 record, which is not that bad and he has quite a well-rounded game which has helped him come out of trouble most times. However, he is facing another Japanese prospect, and the last time he had to do so, it didn’t end so well.
Carlos Hernandez’s experience and well-rounded game give him an edge, especially if he can manage the distance and pace of the fight.
Why Bet on Rei Tsuruya?
Rei Tsuruya has a very nice record with mostly finishes but it’s not against anyone in the UFC and more against people in the regional scene but a few bouts from Road to the UFC.
Tsuruya has displayed impressive ground game just like his Japanese counterparts but we have yet to see if this will translate at the UFC level.
Final Betting Analysis: Carlos Hernandez vs. Rei Tsuruya
Tsuruya’s aggression and striking could pose problems if Hernandez allows him to dictate the fight’s tempo.
This is a fight that will show if Rei Tsuruya is UFC ready and Carlos has only really lost to Tatsuro Taira, who we all know is a beast. We wouldn’t be surprised if Tsuruya rises to the challenge and finishes Hernandez.
UFC 303: Ricky Simón vs. Vinicius Oliveira
Why Bet on Ricky Simón?
Ricky Simón is known for his relentless wrestling and grappling prowess. His strengths lie in his ability to control opponents on the ground, using his strong takedowns and top control to dominate rounds.
Simón’s cardio is a significant asset, allowing him to maintain a high pace throughout the fight. What’s impressive is he beat Merab on his debut who is now a title contender and has racked up victories against numerous UFC-caliber opponents despite being on a two-fight losing streak.
Why Bet on Vinicius Oliveira?
Vinicius Olivera is a talented fighter with dynamic striking and knockout power which he displayed in his impressive flying knee knockout against Jobber Bernando Sopaj late in the 3rd round. However, we think it is too early for him to be fighting someone like Ricky Simon at this stage of his career.
Final Betting Analysis: Ricky Simón vs. Vinicius Oliveira
We were kind of surprised by this matchmaking as one would have thought the UFC would want to build on the hype of Olivera by giving him an easier opponent.
Considering the level between the fighters, we are picking Simon for his experience and strong ground game to get his bounce-back win here. He should be able to utilize his wrestling to neutralize the striking threats from Olivera and show the new fighter that there are levels to this in the UFC.
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