We are getting ready for another exciting numbered event in UFC 298, as the bad blood boils between the fighters at the main bout for the night. Besides that, we get two exciting middleweight contenders fighting in the co-main clash too, along with other exciting duels on the main card.
The main event should be a barn burner, as Alexander Volkanovski is an exciting fighter to watch, and now that he is faced against the undefeated and exciting Ilia Topuria, things are more exciting by the minute… but now, we have to add in the bad blood caused by Topuria against, pretty much anyone else in the division and we got a recipe for a great main event.
The co-main event has the Former middleweight champion facing against a former title challenger Paulo Costa, so this should be an exciting fight and a great clash to hype the main event even further.
We also have the undefeated talent of Ian Machado Garry facing Geoff Neil, and a Bantamweight title eliminator between former champ Henry Cejudo and Merab Dvalishvili.
The full event is stacked, from the 5 main event fights to the 7 prelims clashes, as we can see just from having Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern, but the amount of international talent is to the roof!
You can check all the UFC/MMAbets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info
When:
Saturday, February 17th, at 6:30 pm ET
Moneyline odds
Alexander Volkanovski 1.79 / Ilia Topuria 2.124
Robert Whittaker 1.411 / Paulo Costa 3.015
Geoff Neal 2.92 / Ian Machado Garry 1.402
Merab Dvalishvili 1.455 / Henry Cejudo 2.796
Anthony Hernandez 1.513 / Roman Kopylov 2.773
Amanda Lemos 1.72 / Mackenzie Dern 2.104
Marcos Rogério de Lima 1.645 / Justin Tafa 2.235
Rinya Nakamura 1.091 / Carlos Vera 8.45
Mingyang Zhang 1.824 / Brendson Ribeiro 2.027
Josh Quinlan 2.592 / Danny Barlow 1.493
Val Woodburn 3.155 / Oban Elliott 1.352
Andrea Lee 2.503 / Miranda Maverick 1.523
Where can I watch it?
UFC Fight Pass
UFC 298: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
Why Bet on Alexander Volkanovski?
The Australian has had two recent outings as a lightweight in an attempt to become a dual-weight champion. He failed on both occasions and must now hope that the effect of those losses won’t do too much damage.
In the featherweight division, Volkanovski has been unbeatable in his 11 fights at the 145 lbs weight limit. No one has come close to ending that streak either.
Why Bet on Ilia Topuria?
Topuria has only once fought the long fight, and that was in his most recent fight with Josh Emmett.
He certainly can win the fight early and end Volkanovski’s reign, but if he doesn’t, then there will be some questions to answer.
Opposite the champion is the confident Topuria. If you want to know quite how self-assured the Spanish MMA fighter is, he’s changed his social media bio to ‘15-0’, despite being 14-0, and added ‘UFC World Champion’ to it too.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria Final Betting Analysis:
We have a couple of rules in betting UFC, and one of them is don’t ever bet against Volkanovski outside of fights against Islam Makachev so we won’t do it here.
Volk has faced the best of the best and beaten everyone except Makhachev while fighting up a weight division, and honestly, the biggest concern for me is him talking about his demons when he isn’t in a fight camp, but we hope he’s still at 100% as his overall game and stamina will get the best of Topuria.
Ilia is a step up from just about anybody, but beating an aging Josh Emmitt and winning over Bryce Mitchell isn’t an impressive resume.
Topuria has great power, but we don’t think he’s ready to take down the GOAT. If I’m being very cautious, we would stay away as Volkanovski’s alcohol problems would be a slight concern, but if Volk is clean coming into this fight we’d like him to school Topuria.
UFC 298: Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa
Why Bet on Robert Whittaker?
Whittaker is the more all-around skilled fighter with lots to choose from in his arsenal, but that could potentially be tough to carry into a fight against a brawler.
Whittaker is embarrassed for not taking Du Plessis seriously in their fight last summer and has made it clear that he won’t make that mistake again.
Why Bet on Paulo Costa?
Costa has constantly been unprofessional with canceled fights, coming to fight week overweight, and always has fans guessing with his goofy cryptic posts on social media. Is he prepared and willing to check every box to win a fight at this level?
He has barely fought the last 4 years and seems to always have something holding him back.
Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa Final Betting Analysis:
Paulo Costa has the most uninspiring wins to be fighting against someone like Robert Whittaker, and he is desperate to increase his social media following with his UFC stunts.
He took the fight against Chimaev with no intention of fighting, and he pulled out last second we wouldn’t be surprised if he did it again.
If he does fight, it’s Whittaker all day as Costa has no cardio after the first couple minutes and he is coming off a win against an ancient Luke Rockhold who was on top of Whittaker rubbing blood in his face at the end.
Costa isn’t in Whittaker’s league, and we know the latter just got knocked out, but he got knocked out to the current Champion in Du Plessis. This is Whittaker all day in my opinion.
UFC 298: Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry
Why Bet on Geoff Neal?
Leon Edwards is the current UFC welterweight champion, while 33-year-old Neal, who fights out of the Dallas area, is ranked eighth in the division with a professional record of 15-5 dating to 2012.
He fought for the middleweight belt once in the XKO organization but lost by third-round TKO (punches) to Kevin Holland.
“Handz of Steel” started that pro career at 7-2 before getting his big break, which was a spot on Dana White’s Contender Series in July 2017 when Neal beat Chase Waldon by first-round TKO (punches) to earn a full-time spot on the UFC roster.
Neal then won his next five bouts as well but is 2-3 since and comes off a third-round submission loss (rear-naked choke) to Shavkat Rakhmonov in March. Neal missed weight for the first time in his career and admitted he might have taken Rakhmonov lightly.
Why Bet on Ian Machado Garry?
The 26-year-old Garry, from Dublin, Ireland, is 13-0 in a pro career dating to only 2019 and is ranked No. 10 in the welterweight division with a bullet. Yes, Conor McGregor had a big impact on his career choice. Before signing with the UFC, Garry was a Cage Warriors welterweight champion.
“The Future” debuted in the UFC in November 2021 and beat Jordan Williams by first-round KO (punches). Garry is 6-0 in the UFC and comes off a unanimous decision win over Neil Magny in August 2023 – Geoff Neal was supposed to be the opponent there but withdrew.
Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry Final Betting Analysis:
Ian Garry is one of the most disliked fighters in the UFC, everyone will be rooting against him, and if we knew Garry was 100% focused on the fight, we would be all in on him, but we simply don’t know that he is.
He was made fun of mercilessly for the situation with his wife writing the book about how to land a professional athlete, and he didn’t react well at all to it and the fight against Luque was canceled in December.
He talked about being scared to travel so we have to believe we’re either getting an emotionally fragile Ian Garry who will melt under the spotlight or we get the ultra-focused Ian Garry who will run through Geoff Neal.
We like Geoff Neal’s game as he got his health situation taken care of after the Magny fight, winning two in a row before getting submitted to Rakhmonov (no shame in that) so if Garry fights timidly, Neal will take advantage.
We think the underdog is the only play here as the craziness from Garry outside of the octagon has a red flag written all over it. If he fights up to his potential, things will look pretty bad with this pick, but we’ll roll with Neal here.
UFC 298: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo
Why Bet on Merab Dvalishvili?
You can be sure that Aljamain Sterling shared his experiences from the Cejudo fight with him during Merab’s preparation for the UFC 298 fight.
Merab a.k.a. The Machine is practically impossible to knock out. He’s got great stamina and has only suffered one loss inside the distance. And it happened by submission, which is the method by which Cejudo hasn’t won a single fight.
Why Bet on Henry Cejudo?
Cejudo is 16-3 but most of his wins happened in the last decade. He’s only fought once since 2020, and he lost that fight. It happened against Aljamain Sterling in the battle for the UFC Bantamweight title last May.
It was a split-decision win for AJ, even though Cejudo looked pretty well.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo Final Betting Analysis:
We get why Merab is a big favorite here. Cejudo is coming off shoulder surgery, and he was out of professional fighting for years before he lost a very close decision to Sterling in May, we thought Cejudo took the Sterling fight because he matched up well against him.
We are not sure he matches up well against Merab, though. Cejudo is one of the best to ever do it with the wrestling, but he’s 37 and Sterling was able to take him down, and if he can take him down, Merab can.
We are, however, not sure if Merab can keep him down, but we do know that he will not stop as his cardio might be the best in the UFC.
Cejudo will need his striking to be on point to slow Dvalishvili down, but Merab just doesn’t stop and that will likely be too much for him. We like Merab’s decision in this one.
UFC 298: Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov
Why Bet on Anthony Hernandez?
After dropping two of his first three UFC contests, Hernandez was booked in what looked to be a horrible matchup against former ADCC champion Rodolfo Vieira. Hernandez had recently been submitted by Markus Perez, so a date with “The Black Belt Hunter” appeared to be a death sentence.
That’s when the world learned that “Fluffy” could grapple too. After picking apart Viera on the feet, he countered a bad shot from the Brazilian with a guillotine from the side guard. That was the first of four dominant grappling performances, with one other submission, a ground-and-pound finish, and eight takedowns during a decision win over Josh Fremd.
Why Bet on Roman Kopylov?
The five-time Russian national champion in combat sambo has near-perfect striking technique. He doesn’t waste energy at range, scoring points with a sharp jab from southpaw while chopping his opponent’s lead leg. Only when countering does he sit down on his shots – an excellent method to preserve stamina.
He uses low leg kicks to control the lead foot battle against righties while firing rear kicks to his opponents’ body and head. He melted Josh Fremd with a punch to the body in his last fight – finishing a man who went the distance against Hernandez.
Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov Final Betting Analysis:
This fight hurts because we love both guys, but there can only be one winner here, and we think Hernandez is the pretty clear winner here.
Both guys are great at one thing, Hernandez at wrestling with his insane cardio and speed to get to opponents’ backs, and Kopylov with his striking to do damage early and then everything setting up for the knockout.
However, Hernandez’s speed will be the difference here and once he gets within range of Kopylov he’ll grapple and wear out Kopylov.
Kopylov is coming off 4 straight KO victories, but nobody is even remotely close to Hernandez’s relentless pressure and talent. He needs to keep it on the feet, and if he can damage his foe early, he might be able to slow him down, but we don’t see Hernandez letting Kopylov tee off on him.
We love Kopylov, but Hernandez is the pick for me in this one. Best best-case scenario would be for Hernandez to win, and Kopylov to get a step down in competition in his next fight so we can cash another ticket.
UFC 298: Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern
Why Bet on Amanda Lemos?
A 7-1 run — capped by back-to-back finishes of Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Marina Rodriguez — earned Amanda Lemos (13-3-1) a title shot in Aug. 2023. Though she managed to last the distance, that proved her only achievement as Zhang Weili overpowered her for 25 minutes.
Her 11 professional finishes include eight knockouts.
Why Bet on Mackenzie Dern?
Once 6-1 in the Octagon, Mackenzie Dern (13-4) now finds herself 2-3 in her last five. Her two-fight 2023 campaign saw her demolish Angela Hill in a career-best performance before succumbing to Jessica Andrade’s power six months later.
She steps in for Tatiana Suarez on around one month’s notice.
Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern Final Betting Analysis:
Though we understand Dern’s desire to bounce back from that rough performance against Andrade, this looks a lot more like repeat than redemption. She doesn’t have the takedowns to recreate Zhang’s wrestling clinic, so if she wants to put Lemos on her back, she’ll have to overwhelm her with power and volume.
And that’s not the best strategy against a tank of a Strawweight with similar (or greater) power in her hands.
Both women are inconsistent enough that Dern still has a chance — I vividly remember Lemos gassing out after one against Hill and struggling to figure out the much smaller Waterson Gomez’s striking.
Still, Dern’s defense is too leaky and her wrestling too limited for me to pick against “Amandinha.” In the end, Dern falls to 1-2 in UFC against Amandas after running headlong into a fight-ending right hand.
UFC 298: Marcos Rogério de Lima vs. Justin Tafa
Why Bet on Marcos Rogério de Lima?
After alternating wins and losses for half a decade, Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-10-1) finally found his footing with a 4-1 run. His efforts earned him a main card slot on UFC 291, where Derrick Lewis handed him his first (technical) knockout loss in more than 10 years via a 33-second flying knee.
Why Bet on Justin Tafa?
New Zealand’s Justin Tafa (7-3) entered the Octagon on the heels of three straight wins, only to drop three of his first four in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion.
Undeterred, he went unbeaten in his next four, though he did become the first UFC Heavyweight to miss weight in the process.
All seven of his professional wins have come via knockout inside of two rounds.
Marcos Rogério de Lima vs. Justin Tafa Final Betting Analysis:
“Pezao” is a truly fascinating specimen — few fighters are more adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (save perhaps Ion Cutelaba and Michael Johnson).
He has many ways to win this, whether by taking down Tafa and brutalizing him on the ground or just slugging it out. The second option is risky, sure, but Tafa’s best win came over Austen Lane and de Lima is a fair bit more fearsome than that.
He could just as easily bungle it, whether by leaving himself vulnerable like he did against Lewis or somehow contriving to find his way onto his back. We just think he’s got too much experience and too many weapons. In short, de Lima bullies Tafa to the mat in the opening minutes and mauls him from there.
UFC 298: Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera
Why Bet on Rinya Nakamura?
Rinya Nakamura (8-0) capped off his dominant “Road to UFC” run by smoking countryman Toshiomi Kazama in 33 seconds at the Finale. His sophomore effort pitted him against DWCS vet Fernie Garcia, whom Nakamura dominated on the mat en route to a clean sweep on the scorecards.
He’s knocked out five pro foes and submitted one other.
Why Bet on Carlos Vera?
Ecuador’s Carlos Vera (11-3) rode a four-fight win streak into The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) house, where he represented Team McGregor. Like most of his teammates, his tenure proved a short one, dropping a unanimous decision to Brad Katona in the opening round.
He replaces Brady Hiestand on less than one month’s notice.
Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera Final Betting Analysis:
Vera’s lack of takedown defense proved his undoing on the show and he’s up against a borderline Olympic-level wrestler here, so the writing’s on the wall for this one.
We can’t imagine him keeping the fight standing for any meaningful length of time and even if he does, he has Nakamura’s nuclear left hand to deal with.
His only real chance lies in catching Nakamura in a guillotine as the latter shoots in, but while Nakamura is still fairly early in his professional career, he’s too sharp to fall into a trap that obvious. When the dust settles, Nakamura either blows him away against the fence or grinds his way to an easy win.
UFC 298: Mingyang Zhang vs. Brendon Ribeiro
Why Bet on Mingyang Zhang?
Zhang Mingyang (16-6) put a 2-3 skid behind him to conquer China’s Heavyweight scene with eight consecutive first-round finishes. He entered his 2022 “Road to UFC” showdown with George Tokkos as a significant underdog but needed less than two minutes to stop Tokkos and claim a UFC contract.
He fights for the first time in nearly two years after a pair of planned debuts fell through in 2023.
Why Bet on Brendon Ribeiro?
Back-to-back, ground-and-pound finishes earned Brendon Ribeiro (15-5) a spot on Contender Series, where he took on heavily-favored Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) champion, Bruno Lopes.
“The Gorilla’s” power ultimately won out, earning him a UFC contract and his eleventh first-round finish. All of his wins have come inside the distance, nine of them via knockout.
Mingyang Zhang vs. Brendon Ribeiro Final Betting Analysis:
Though he developed in a small pond, Zhang has the potential to be one of China’s better MMA exports. He’s an impressive athlete and shows off some impressive veteran savvy for a 25-year-old; by my reckoning, his ceiling is significantly higher than Ribeiro’s.
The question, of course, is whether he’s better now.
We think so because Ribeiro doesn’t have much depth to his standup besides jabs and crosses and is hopeless on the ground. He has a chance to clip Zhang, but the ease with which “Mountain Tiger” absorbed Tokkos’ best shots suggests that Ribeiro’s the likelier of the two to fall from a stray shot. Zhang smokes him with a straight right in the opening minutes.
UFC 298: Josh Quinlan vs. Danny Barlow
Why Bet on Josh Quinlan?
Wand Fight Team’s Josh Quinlan (6-1) saw his contract-winning Contender Series beatdown of Logan Urban overturned to a “No Contest” after failing a drug test. He built back some credibility with a nasty one-punch finish of Jason Witt in his UFC debut but struggled with the range of sophomore foe Trey Waters en route to a decision defeat.
Why Bet on Danny Barlow?
Danny Barlow (7-0) — a former 6-1 amateur — notched a pair of wins under the CFFC banner en route to the Contender Series. There, he took just 79 seconds to knockout former CFFC champion, Raheam Forest, and walk away with a UFC contract.
That win marked his fourth professional knockout and fifth finish overall.
Josh Quinlan vs. Danny Barlow Final Betting Analysis:
The name of the game here is distance. Quinlan’s low kicks and raw power are a threat to anyone who enters the pocket with him, but the Waters fight showed a baffling inability to close the gap.
That doesn’t inspire confidence in his chances here because Barlow has a ridiculous 80-inch reach at his disposal and expert range management with which to maximize it.
Quinlan’s path to victory lies in compromising Barlow’s movement with low kicks and bludgeoning him on the inside.
He’ll have to get past Barlow’s footwork and left cross to do so, however, and I don’t see it happening. In the end, Barlow sharp shoots his way to a dominant victory.
UFC 298: Val Woodburn vs. Oban Elliott
Why Bet on Val Woodburn?
“The Animal” spent virtually his entire amateur and professional career under the Combat Night Pro banner, going 5-2-1 in the unpaid ranks and perfect (7-0) professionally to earn a spot on the Contender Series.
He wound up stepping up on short notice to battle Bo Nickal in the Octagon instead, ultimately suffering a 38-second knockout loss at UFC 290.
Why Bet on Oban Elliott?
Oban Elliott (9-2) stumbled his way to a 4-2 professional start before finishing his stint with Cage Warriors on a 4-0 run.
Then came the Contender Series, where “The Welsh Gangster” survived a near-disaster against Kaik Brito to earn a majority decision and a UFC contract.
Val Woodburn vs. Oban Elliott Final Betting Analysis:
This is Elliott’s fight to lose by every metric imaginable. He’s beaten better competition, he’s by far the better boxer, and he’s the better grappler by a similar margin. Dropping to 170 pounds isn’t going to magically fix Woodburn’s litany of issues … and we’re not even convinced he can do so considering his musculature.
All Elliott has to do here is not get caught with something stupid. He admittedly failed that task against Brito, but he survived that barrage, and Brito is leagues better than Woodburn, besides. In short, Elliott out-classes him for a one-sided win.
UFC 298: Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick
Why Bet on Andrea Lee?
Andrea Lee (13-8) rode into the Octagon on a four-fight win streak, then extended it to seven with a trio of decision victories. “KGB” has since struggled to recapture that momentum, dropping six of eight in the last four years.
She’s submitted five professional foes and knocked out three others.
Why Bet on Miranda Maverick?
Miranda Maverick (14-5) saw a perfect (2-0) UFC start to give way to two straight losses, one a robbery against Maycee Barber and the other a decisive defeat to Erin Blanchfield. “Fear The” went on to win three of her next four, most recently dominating Priscila Cachoeira at UFC 291.
Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick Final Betting Analysis:
As much of a bust, as Lee turned out to be, she’s not without hope in this showdown. Maverick’s takedown defense is weirdly porous for a grappler of her caliber and her UFC victories — save for her decision over Gillian Robertson three years back — came over very limited opposition. If utilized properly, Lee’s striking and offensive wrestling could carry her to victory.
We just can’t trust “KGB” against wrestlers at this point in her career. She’s had plenty of her takedown defense issues and Maverick strikes me as the stronger ground artist overall. Lee might still have the edge on the feet, but that can only do so much in the face of Maverick’s takedowns. When the dust settles, the latter grapple her way to her second straight win.
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