UFC 282: Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev – Betting Odds and Fight Card Picks

Last Updated on December 8, 2022 3:26 pm by Erwin Noguera

This weekend, the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is going to give us an exciting numbered event that nobody is going to want to miss, even if the original main event had to be switched over.

The card may have lost the original headliner, but it is stacked and full of exciting action so the fans will be pleased one way or another.

This card comes in with 13 fights, and as is usual for a numbered event, 5 of them are in the main card, and the other 8 are going to hype the way up through the prelims.

The Main Event has the now Vacant Light Heavyweight Title on the line, and it will be an exciting event as Jan Blachowicz looks to claim the title back against a dangerous opponent in Magomed Ankalaev.

The Co-main event has Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett, who has been riding a huge hype train and delivered every time he steps into the octagon, as he faces Jared Gordon as they cross on a path to the top of the division.

And those are just some of the exciting names that we get for an exciting main card, and 8 prelims full of talent to give everybody an exciting pre-Christmas gift in a Numbered event package.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

UFC 282 – Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev Betting Odds and Fight Card Picks – Info

When: Saturday, December 12th, at 6:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Jan Błachowicz +227 / Magomed Ankalaev -303

Paddy Pimblett -256 / Jared Gordon +192

Santiago Ponzinibbio -200 / Alex Morono +153

Darren Till +149 / Dricus Du Plessis -192

Bryce Mitchell +114 / Ilia Topuria -144

Jay Perrin +192 / Raul Rosas Jr. -256

Jairzinho Rozenstruik -188 / Chris Daukaus +145

Edmen Shahbazyan -312 / Dalcha Lungiambula +231

Chris Curtis +123 / Joaquin Buckley -156

Billy Quarantillo -169 / Alexander Hernandez +133

Erik Silva -123 / TJ Brown -103

Daniel da Silva +165 / Vinicius Salvador -200

Cameron Saaiman -344 / Steven Koslow +254

Where Can I Watch it?

ESPN +

UFC 282: Jan Błachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Why Bet on Jan Błachowicz

Jan Blachowicz is the No. 3 light heavyweight contender. Just two years ago, he knocked out Dominick Reyes for the 205-pound championship, then successfully defended the title with a decision victory versus Israel Adesanya.

Blachowicz lost the belt to Teixeira last year before bouncing back with a TKO win against Aleksandar Rakic in May.

The 39-year-old is 10-2 in his last 12 fights with five Performance of the Night bonuses.

With his Muay Thai stand-up, Blachowicz is a strong technical striker with power in both his punches and kicks, but he also has solid grappling credentials and nine submission wins in his career.

Why Bet on Magomed Ankalaev

Magomed Ankalaev is one spot behind Blachowicz in the rankings and is on a nine-fight winning streak, most recently defeating Anthony Smith by TKO in July.

Ankalaev has just one loss in his MMA career when he made his UFC debut four years ago against submission-specialist Paul Craig and was on his way to a dominant victory before getting caught in a triangle choke with one second left in the bout.

The 30-year-old has a background in combat sambo and is a very well-rounded fighter that combines strong wrestling ability with powerful and accurate kickboxing.

Jan Błachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev Final Betting Analysis:

This is an interesting fight for Blachowicz, who was on top of the world just a year ago before a submission loss to Teixeira dropped his stock.

He was also a slight +160 underdog against Rakic and showed that he is still among the best technical strikers in the division by outpointing him in the first round.

Unfortunately, Blachowics was dominated on the mat in the second frame, and Ankalaev is another guy who does a good job of mixing in wrestling and has stifling ground control.

When this fight stays standing up, Ankalaev has more power than Rakic and is more versatile with his ability to throw kicks to every level.

Blachowicz will have a tough time setting the pace and could struggle with his overall speed against a younger fighter who hasn’t taken much damage in his career.

We place our betting token on Ankalaev to become the new LH Champ.

UFC 282: Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon

Why Bet on Paddy Pimblett

Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett has quickly become one of the biggest names in the UFC despite being unranked and having just three fights in the promotion.

That said, he has gone 3-0 in the octagon, with all three of those victories earning a Performance of the Night bonus.

In his most recent bout, he submitted Jordan Leavitt in the second round after an opening round where he was taken down three times but constantly threatened with submission attempts.

The 27-year-old is a former featherweight champion at Cage Warriors and is known for his charismatic personality and all-action style.

Pimblett has high-end grappling ability but is more than willing to mix it up on his feet with pressure and aggressive striking.

Why Bet on Jared Gordon

Jared “Flash” Gordon is fresh off a dominant decision win against Leonard Santos in August, where he had a 116-36 edge in significant strikes.

That allowed him to bounce back from a submission loss to Grant Dawson earlier this year.

Gordon is 7-4 in the UFC, with his last six victories coming by points.

The 34-year-old is a well-rounded fighter who can maintain a good pace with his crisp boxing and chain wrestling.

Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon Final Betting Analysis:

Pimblett’s biggest weakness has been his striking defense and tendency to leave his chin in the air, but Gordon doesn’t have the power to make him pay for that.

Pimblett explodes in bursts with his punches and throws kicks with plenty of speed as well, and that should help him at range against Gordon, who has a five-inch reach disadvantage.

When Gordon closes the distance, Paddy will be able to use his grappling and get this fight where he wants it.

The longer this fight goes, the better Gordon’s chances are of winning, but Paddy’s speed, athleticism, and grappling should get him an early victory.

UFC 282: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Alex Morono

Why Bet on Santiago Ponzinibbio

Thirty-six-year-old Santiago Ponzinibbio makes the UFC walk for the 16th time in his career this Saturday.

He’s been on the wrong side of split decisions in his last two bouts – first to Geoff Neal in December of 2021 and to Michel Pereira in May of this year.

Ponzinibbio’s last victory came in June of 2021 when he bested Miguel Baeza via unanimous decision.

The “Argentine Dagger” outstruck Baeza 121-104 in the bout, and he’s landed an average of 105.7 strikes in his last three fights.

Why Bet on Alex Morono

Alex Morono steps in on just six days’ notice after Robbie Lawler was scratched with an undisclosed injury.

Morono’s red hot right now and riding a four-fight win streak with victories against Donald Cerrone, David Zawada, Mickey Gall, and Matthew Semelsberger most recently.

The three recent fights were unanimous decision wins, and Morono added a first-round knock-out victory over Cowboy Cerrone back in May of 2021.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Alex Morono Final Betting Analysis:

Solely based on the striking numbers, we should be in for some fireworks in this catchweight matchup.

I’m going to take a shot with the underdog and back Alex Morono to come away victorious on Saturday night.

Considering he’s taking this fight on short notice, he must be confident and have an idea of a clear path to victory against Ponzinibbio.

Morono has the striking advantage, and his Taekwondo background gives him an edge considering this one will likely stay on the feet for the majority of the fight.

UFC 282: Darren Till vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Why Bet on Darren Till

Till enters Saturday’s affair in a really big slump. It’s hard to believe that the fighter who once had a shot at the belt – he lost to Tyron Woodley back in 2018 – has just one win in his last five bouts.

His lone win was a split decision victory over Kelvin Gastelum, who himself has lost five of six.

Even though he’s dropped four of five, he’s been in the main event of the evening in three of his last four appearances.

That goes to show that he’s not fighting scrubs.

Why Bet on Dricus Du Plessis

Du Plessis is a much more unknown commodity – at least by the masses – but it seems like bettors understand.

He’s now 17-2 in his MMA career and enters on a five-fight winning streak.

The challenge is that he’s only had three fights in the UFC and he still has a lot to prove.

He’s passed the early tests with flying colors – knocking out two of his first three UFC opponents – but this is his first ranked opponent.

Darren Till vs. Dricus Du Plessis Final Betting Analysis:

Even though Till is by far the bigger brand here and is higher ranked, it’s Du Plessis who is favored to win this bout.

If Till is ice cold because of his slump, Du Plessis is red hot because of his wins.

Things are all pointed out for Du Plessis to grow his name after taking down Till, in what is likely to be done via KO.

UFC 282: Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria

Why Bet on Bryce Mitchell

Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell has won five straight fights after transitioning to the UFC from The Ultimate Fighter in 2019, with all but one coming by unanimous decision.

Along the way, Mitch has picked up impressive wins over the likes of Charles Rosa, Andre Fili, and Edson Barboza.

Why Bet on Ilia Topuria

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Topuria began his professional MMA career with seven straight submission wins, including six in the opening round.

Since then, Topuria has won four out of his last five matches by way of KO or TKO, including his last four in the UFC.

Most recently, Topuria picked up a win over Jai Herbert in March, his second in 12 months and the one that put him on the map for this opportunity.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria Final Betting Analysis:

Despite Mitchell’s remarkable run, he has little to no striking experience, which might be a significant issue when he faces Topuria, whose skills have constantly developed.

Topuria also brings a ground game that Mitchell hasn’t seen before and a perfect takedown defense to this battle.

Expect “El Matador” to get his hand raised in the end.

UFC 282: Jay Perrin vs. Raul Rosas Jr.

Why Bet on Jay Perrin

Two fights after an unsuccessful Contender Series bid, Jay Perrin (10-6) choked out Josh Smith to claim the CES Bantamweight title.

He’s still chasing his first UFC finish, having fallen to Mario Bautista and Aoriqileng in back-to-back fights.

Why Bet on Raul Rosas Jr.

Raul Rosas Jr. (6-0) went undefeated (2-0) with two first-round finishes as an amateur before stopping his first five professional opponents.

This set up a historic Contender Series clash with Mando Gutierrez, resulting in Rosas’ first decision victory and a UFC contract.

He’s submitted four professional foes and knocked out one other.

Jay Perrin vs. Raul Rosas Jr. Final Betting Analysis:

While we’ve seen our fair share of wunderkind’s flame out in the Octagon, Rosas definitely has potential, largely thanks to his excellent takedown game.

He just might have bitten off more than he could chew here, unfortunately, as Perrin’s poor UFC record belies a very solid and well-rounded game.

Perrin is unquestionably the better boxer of the two, as seen by the late beating he put on Aoriqileng, and he’s not a slouch in the wrestling department.

It’ll likely be maturity that settles this.

Rosas is so frantic in his guard passing and submission attempts that he can sacrifice tightness, allowing seasoned opponents to wriggle out of bad positions or take him down in return.

Between how hittable he is on the feet and how mentally tough Perrin is, the latter may be able to weather some rough spots, rack up top control, and land enough heavy punches standing to pull the upset.

UFC 282: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus

Why Bet on Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-4) smashed his way into UFC contention with four consecutive knockout victories, including a face-shredding finish of Alistair Overeem in the final seconds of their main event.

“Big Boy” is just 2-4 since, including a knockout loss to Alexander Volkov his last time out.

All but one of his professional wins have come by knockout.

Why Bet on Chris Daukaus

Chris Daukaus (12-5), likewise, emerged as a Heavyweight to watch by knocking out his first four Octagon opponents.

This earned him consecutive main events against Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes, who handed Daukaus his first losses since 2019.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus Final Betting Analysis:

This could either be extremely short and incredibly entertaining or an absolute slog.

Ideally, they’ll come out with chips on their shoulders and slug it out until someone goes to sleep.

Pessimistically, their recent knockout losses will leave them timid and unwilling to engage.

Honestly, one would favor Rozenstruik in both scenarios.

While he’s a lot slower than Daukaus and doesn’t put his combinations together quite as smoothly, he is likely the bigger one-shot puncher and definitely the more experienced in long, boring staring contests.

UFC 282: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dalcha Lungiambula

Why Bet on Edmen Shahbazyan

A head kick finish of Brad Tavares marked the fourth consecutive UFC win for Edmen Shahbazyan (11-3), putting him on the brink of title contention at an incredible pace.

He now finds himself winless since 2019 courtesy of dangerous contenders Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson, and Nassourdine Imavov.

He fights for the first time in 13 months.

Why Bet on Dalcha Lungiambula

Dalcha Lungiambula (11-5) opened his UFC career 2-1, a loss to top contender Magomed Ankalaev sandwiched between victories over Dequan Townsend and Markus Perez.

“Champion” enters the cage this Saturday in the midst of a three-fight skid, among them a knockout loss to Punahele Soriano last time out.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dalcha Lungiambula Final Betting Analysis:

Shahbazyan still has a lot of potential. Losing to killers like Brunson, Hermansson, and Imavov does not a bust make. On the contrary, he’s still just 25 years old and likely ironing out all the bad habits Tarverdyan baked into him.

The tools are there for a genuine contender.

If he can’t get past Lungiambula, though, it’s time to throw in the towel.

“Champion” has never quite managed to synthesize his grappling skills, punching power, and physical gifts into a cohesive offense.

So long as Shahbazyan can avoid his wild kill swings, the former will have a considerable edge on the feet thanks to his versatility.

Plus, even if Lungiambula manages to get his takedowns going, he’s so ineffective on top that Shahbazyan should be able to wriggle free and get back to work.

Shahbazyan cracks him with something ugly early in the second.

UFC 282: Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley

Why Bet on Chris Curtis

Chris Curtis (29-9) authored one of UFC’s most impressive Cinderella stories, rattling off three straight wins over lethal contenders.

His victories set up a clash with Jack Hermansson, who used constant lateral movement and high volume to flummox “The Action Man” and snap his eight-fight win streak.

Why Bet on Joaquin Buckley

A torrid 5-1 run — highlighted by an all-time-great knockout of Impa Kasanganay — established Joaquin Buckley (15-5) as a genuine threat at 185 pounds.

Nassourdine Imavov proved too stiff a test, however, out-warring Buckley to claim a unanimous decision in Paris.

All 11 of his pro stoppages have come by knockout.

Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley Final Betting Analysis:

Curtis’ first three UFC appearances showed that if you mix it up with him inside, his combination of power, durability, and body punching will inevitably break you down.

What the Hermansson fight showed is that he can’t really get that kind of fight unless his opponents do it for him.

His cage cutting was abysmal and he never seemed to realize that you’re allowed to kick people in the legs.

Buckley’s speed and mobility are such that he can hypothetically keep Curtis out of the pocket indefinitely, but his tendency to charge headlong into the fire could play right into “The Action Man’s” hands.

It’s an incredibly tight match-up that seems like it’ll come down to the wire.

In the end, after chewing on it for a while, Curtis’ bodywork and toughness should edge it out and allow him to take over down the stretch.

UFC 282: Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez

Why Bet on Billy Quarantillo

Billy Quarantillo (16-4) parlayed his Contender Series stoppage of Kamuela Kirk into three consecutive UFC.

“Billy Q” has since lost two of three, though he claimed a post-fight bonus for his beatdown of Gabriel Benitez.

This marks his first cage appearance in 13 months, as he withdrew from a planned July 2022 clash with Bill Algeo.

Why Bet on Alexander Hernandez

Alexander Hernandez (13-5) exploded onto the scene with impressive wins over Beneil Dariush and Olivier Aubin-Mercier in his first two UFC bouts.

His current 3-4 run has seen him alternate losses and wins, and “The Great” is coming off a career-first submission defeat to Renato Moicano.

This will be his first Featherweight appearance since 2013.

Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez Final Betting Analysis:

I don’t think moving to 145 is the cure-all Hernandez is looking for, especially not against someone with the insane pace of Quarantillo.

There’s no question that “The Great” will look good early thanks to his solid boxing and the wrestling that’s bedeviled “Billy Q” time and again in the cage.

It’s just hard to see him keeping it up; he can be a frontrunner at times, a tendency that certainly won’t be helped by the unfamiliar physical drain of a larger weight cut.

Again, Hernandez is probably going to have a great time of it when they’re both fresh.

It’s just hard to trust him to keep it up once his body starts to give out and Quarantillo’s landed punches hit the triple digits.

Quarantine does his usual avalanche thing for a late finish.

UFC 282: Erik Silva vs. TJ Brown

Why Bet on Erik Silva

Erik Silva (9-1) rode a seven-fight winning streak into Contender Series, where he squared off with 3-0 Anvar Baynazarov.

Silva needed just 92 seconds to pound the Uzbek out and punch his ticket to the Octagon.

Why Bet on TJ Brown

T.J. Brown (16-9) struggled out of the UFC gate with two straight losses but managed to bounce back with victories over Kai Kamaka III.

The winning streak wound up stopping there courtesy of Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, who out-grappled Brown to a unanimous decision win in June 2022.

“Downtown” has scored nine submissions and four knockouts as a professional.

Erik Silva vs. TJ Brown Final Betting Analysis:

I’m firm in the belief that in terms of pure skill, Brown has what it takes to be a noteworthy UFC Featherweight.

There’s just something missing; the iffy chin is a known quantity, of course, but his striking and grappling ability should have carried him past Nuerdanbieke.

That defeat in particular has me questioning his chances.

Though Silva is mostly untested after a string of quick finishes and doesn’t appear to have a huge amount of depth to his game, Brown proved unable to deal with a similarly grappling-heavy approach against Nuerdanbieke.

Chances are for Silva to come out aggressive, get his takedowns going, and ultimately club Brown into submission.

UFC 282: Daniel da Silva vs. Vinicius Salvador

Why Bet on Daniel da Silva

Daniel Da Silva (11-4) put an injury defeat behind him to score three consecutive first-round finishes.

He’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon, suffering three consecutive stoppage losses inside two rounds.

Why Bet on Vinicius Salvador

After a get-well win on the Brazilian circuit to shake the rust from a 16-month layoff, Vinicius Salvador (14-4) entered the Contender Series as a two-to-one underdog against Shannon Ross.

Undaunted, he scored multiple knockdowns en route to a violent second-round finish that earned him a UFC contract.

All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, 13 of them via knockout.

Daniel da Silva vs. Vinicius Salvador Final Betting Analysis:

Speaking of people who really should be doing better than they are, it’s been surreal to watch someone with Da Silva’s obvious talent constantly find ways to lose.

Salvador is slow, incredibly easy to hit, and has a history of getting overwhelmed on the mat, so by all rights he should be easy pickings for an explosive finisher like “Mojo.”

With the way he choked against Francisco Figueiredo and Victor Altamirano, though, it seems inevitable that he’ll repeat Ross’s folly and walk right into one of “Fenomeno’s” sledgehammer hooks.

If he’s firing on all cylinders, Da Silva will kick this guy’s head clean off his shoulders, but we are just past expecting that from him.

Salvador clubs him unconscious within the first five minutes.

UFC 282: Cameron Saaiman vs. Steven Koslow

Why Bet on Cameron Saaiman

Cameron Saaiman (6-0) — an understudy of UFC Middleweight contender, Dricus Du Plessis — claimed EFC Bantamweight gold in his fifth pro fight.

This led him to Contender Series, where he knocked Josh Wang-Kim out cold and secured himself a UFC contract.

That EFC title win was his sole trip to the judges as a professional, as he’s knocked out four and submitted one.

Why Bet on Steven Koslow

Steven Koslow (6-0) won 10 straight as an amateur en route to a 2019 pro debut.

He’s yet to see the second round in the paid ranks, submitting all six of his opponents in 4:05 or less.

He replaces Ronnie Lawrence on less than two weeks’ notice.

Cameron Saaiman vs. Steven Koslow Final Betting Analysis:

Koslow is a very skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu player out of 10th Planet, which should give him the means to exploit one of Saaiman’s more notable weaknesses.

He’ll have to deal with Saaiman’s pressure, power, and gas tank, though; between his lack of experience in the later rounds and limited strength of schedule, I’m not hugely confident in his ability to do so.

Expect him to wrestle his way to a great start before Saaiman gets his footing, forces him into an uncomfortably high pace, and polishes him off in the latter half of the fight.