UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz – Preview and Betting Odds

Last Updated on September 8, 2022 11:23 am by Erwin Noguera

We have an exciting main event in the second week of September, as the UFC makes the trip back to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The main event of the night will be a banger, as the rising star, Khamzat Chimaev faces off against a dangerous veteran fighter in Nate Diaz.

The Co-Main event gets Jingliang Li, who is going to face a test in another seasoned veteran, Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson, who is trying to pick up from his losing streak against the very top of the division.

With even 5 fights on the main card and 8 more on the prelims, we have to take a deep dive into these match-ups, as we have one pretty interesting fight card ahead of us this weekend.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

UFC 279 – Chimaev vs. Diaz – Betting Odds and Free Picks – Info

When: Saturday, September 10th, at 6:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Khamzat Chimaev -1000 / Nate Diaz +500

Jingliang Li -322 / Tony Ferguson +248

Kevin Holland -200 / Daniel Rodriguez +162

Irene Aldana -181 / Macy Chiasson +146

Johnny Walker +162 / Ion Cutelaba -200

Hakeem Dawodu -222 / Julian Erosa +178

Jailton Almeida -714 / Anton Turkalj +485

Jamie Pickett -131 / Denis Tiuliulin +107

Jake Collier -434 / Chris Barnett +325

Norma Dumont -416 / Danyelle Wolf +310

Chad Anheliger +140 / Heili Alateng -172

Elise Reed +132 / Melissa Martinez -163

Darian Weeks -128 / Yohan Lainesse +105

UFC 279: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz

Why Bet on Khamzat Chimaev

Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev has surged up to No. 3 in the welterweight rankings after defeating Gilbert Burns by unanimous decision in one of the most thrilling fights of the year in April.

That back-and-forth battle against the former No. 2 contender in Burns was the first real test of Chimaev’s career after he finished his first four UFC opponents with ease by landing a total of 112 significant strikes and absorbing just one.

Chimaev has a perfect 11-0 in his MMA career and has racked up five wins and five Performance of the Night or Fight of Night bonuses since joining the UFC.

Also competing at middleweight, the 28-year-old has incredible strength for this division and is an elite wrestler with heavy hands and brutal ground-and-pound.

Why Bet on Nate Diaz

Diaz is an MMA legend who has been competing in the UFC since 2007 and holds the promotion record for post-fight award bonuses with 15.

However, the 37-year-old is well past his prime and has only fought once since the start of 2020, a lopsided decision loss to Leon Edwards last summer.

With a second-degree black belt in BJJ, Diaz is an excellent grappler with 11 career wins by submission.

But he is more famous for his durability, cardio, and ability to wage an all-out war with his volume striking.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz Final Betting Analysis:

While Diaz’s supporters will be excited to see their favorite fighter end his UFC career with a W, this bout has all the makings of a one-sided smash fest.

The Californian is a gifted grappler and has an endless gas tank, but wrestling has always been his Achilles heel.

He has been ragged dolled and controlled by good wrestlers in the past.

Now he will fight the biggest, and best wrestler in the division on Saturday.

Diaz has only been legitimately stopped by strikes once in the UFC.

There is a good chance Chimaev puts on a Khabib Nurmagomedov-like display that forces the referee to save Diaz from himself at UFC 279.

UFC 279: Jingliang Li vs. Tony Ferguson

Why Bet on Jingliang Li

Li Jingliang is fresh off a second-round knockout win against Muslim Salkhov in July which allowed him to bounce back from a lopsided loss to Khamzat Chimaev last October.

“Leech” is one of the most rock-solid fighters at welterweight, the division that his opponent will be debuting in for this fight.

Why Bet on Tony Ferguson

Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson is a lightweight legend who made the move up to 170 pounds after an ugly loss to Michael Chandler in May where he was knocked out cold by a front kick.

The one-time lightweight champ has lost four straight, every fight he was dominated in, and in the last, he suffered what will likely be the knockout of the year in 2022.

Jingliang Li vs. Tony Ferguson Final Betting Analysis:

Jingliang brings a trump card that could be problematic for Ferguson in his legit power.

Considering how Ferguson has taken power shots in recent years, and the fact he will be facing a heavier hitter, this could be a short night for the former champ.

UFC 279: Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Why Bet on Kevin Holland

Holland was struggling to make any progress in the crowded middleweight division and recently dropped to 170 pounds.

The results speak for themselves, to the tune of two straight victories with two second-round finishes.

Why Bet on Daniel Rodriguez

For the 16-2 Rodriguez, a former “Contender Series” standout who joined the promotion back in early 2020, this fight can help him to prove a point.

He improved to 6-1 inside the Octagon by outpointing veteran bruiser Kevin Lee at UFC Vegas 35 to notch his third straight win.

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez Final Betting Analysis:

Holland versus Rodriguez should be an absolute barn burner.

Both are double tough and very skilled strikers.

There is a chance the striking could be a wash between the two, so look for “Trailblazer” to show off his new grappling skills and beat “D-Rod” with a complete MMA attack.

UFC 279: Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson

Why Bet on Irene Aldana

Aldana is perhaps the least interesting contender at 135 pounds who doesn’t have at least one loss to Amanda Nunes.

After knocking out Ketlen Vieira, she seemed to be on the fast track to a title shot, but then the Holly Holm defeat completely shattered her momentum.

She rebounded well last time out, but Aldana still needs another big win to re-assert herself into the title mix.

Why Bet on Macy Chiasson

Chiasson has talent herself, but The Ultimate Fighter champion has struggled to build consistent momentum.

Bouncing between weight classes, Chiasson has a solid UFC record but hasn’t yet scored a signature victory.

Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson Final Betting Analysis:

This is a pretty comparable match-up to Aldana’s last fight opposite Yana Kunitskaya.

Like Kunitskaya, Chiasson is probably going to pursue the clinch.

Her best chance at victory involves hanging onto Aldana and preventing boxing exchanges at a distance while landing small shots.

Similar to her last fight, Aldana has to punish her opponent’s attempts to crash forward.

Aldana should be sticking her jab and moving her feet, making Chiasson work to catch up to her.

In the process, Aldana should be looking to line up her money shot: that left hook that can end the fight if it lands right.

UFC 279: Johnny Walker vs. Ion Cutelaba

Why Bet on Johnny Walker

Walker started very hot and climbed into the Top 15 quickly.

Once there, however, the opposition started touching his chin, and things have largely fallen apart.

Though still ranked at No. 13, Walker has lost four of his last five bouts and is in major need of a win here.

Why Bet on Ion Cutelaba

Cutelaba enters this match-up as the unranked man, 1-1-1 in his previous three contests.

“The Hulk” is talented, but fans have been speculating about whether or not the 28-year-old puncher can put it all together for around five years now.

Cutelaba has just never been able to build a true win streak inside the Octagon.

Johnny Walker vs. Ion Cutelaba Final Betting Analysis:

This feels like a very reasonable, if dangerous, match-up for Cutelaba.

Walker has consistently struggled with forwarding pressure and takedowns, and Cutelaba has the skill and aggression to make that happen.

Of course, walking into a flying knee would derail that plan, so keeping his hands up while pressuring would be wise.

Cutelaba tends to start fast, and that works in this match-up.

If he forces Walker to wrestle hard right away, Walker’s early explosiveness will be wasted on something other than punching “The Hulk” in the face.

Plus, if both men are a bit tired, Cutelaba’s chances of catching Walker’s chin with a big swing make him our pick.

UFC 279: Hakeem Dawodu vs. Julian Erosa

Why Bet on Hakeem Dawodu

After dropping his UFC debut in a shock upset against Danny Henry, Hakeem Dawodu battled his way to five consecutive Octagon victories.

Though he fell short against Movsar Evloev in Glendale, “Mean” returned to the win column by out-striking Mike Trizano eight months later.

Why Bet on Julian Erosa

“Juicy J’s” return to the Octagon after two years away resulted in three consecutive defeats and another ignominious exit from the world’s largest fight promotion.

Undaunted, he now sits at 4-1 in his last five UFC bouts, three of those wins inside the distance.

His 23 professional finishes are split 12/11 between submissions and knockouts.

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Julian Erosa Final Betting Analysis:

Erosa has become surprisingly adept at scoring comeback finishes lately, and he’s going to need one here.

Dawodu has the Muay Thai chops to eat “Juicy J” alive on the feet and sufficiently strong takedown defense to keep Erosa’s submission skills completely out of the equation.

He doesn’t slow down either, so Erosa can’t bank on steadily overwhelming him with volume.

All signs point to Hakeem performing a clinical dissection, taking advantage of Erosa’s historically poor defense to tear apart his head, body, and legs.

A club-and-sub from Erosa isn’t totally out of the question, as we saw in Dawodu’s debut, but it’s likelier that Dawodu chops him down for a mid- or late-round finish.

UFC 279: Jailton Almeida vs. Anton Turkalj

Why Bet on Jailton Almeida

Unbeaten since a 5-2 pro start, Jailton Almeida secured a UFC contract with a dominant submission of Nasrudin Nasrudinov on Contender Series.

After smashing Danilo Marques in his promotional debut, he moved up to Heavyweight to choke out Parker Porter three months later.

All of his wins have come by stoppage, 10 of those via submission.

Why Bet on Anton Turkalj

Sweden’s Anton Turkalj (8-0) racked up three first-round finishes under the Brave CF banner en route to Contender Series, one of them via 13-second spinning back fist.

“Pleasure Man” was unable to do the same to Acacio dos Santos, but still walked away with his first professional decision win.

Jailton Almeida vs. Anton Turkalj Final Betting Analysis:

Even if Almeida doesn’t immediately decide to take things to the ground, Turkalj’s lack of head movement means that Jailton can hold his own on his feet.

This lasts as long as Almeida wants it to and, once he’s had his fun and decides to take down Turkalj, he’ll find the latter’s neck in a hurry.

UFC 279: Jamie Pickett vs. Denis Tiuliulin

Why Bet on Jamie Pickett

Three-time Contender Series veteran, Jamie Pickett, evened up his UFC record at 2-2 with consecutive decisions over Laureano Staropoli and Joseph Holmes.

This set up a clash with fellow DWCS graduate Kyle Daukaus, who put away “The Nightwolf” with a buzzer-beating d’arce choke.

Why Bet on Denis Tiuliulin

Denis Tiuliulin (10-6) rode a 4-1 run into his UFC debut, which saw him step up on short notice to meet Contender Series graduate, Aliaskhab Khizriev.

His efforts couldn’t match his ambitions, succumbing to a rear-naked choke midway through the second round.

Eight of his 10 professional wins have come in form of knockouts.

Jamie Pickett vs. Denis Tiuliulin Final Betting Analysis:

After five UFC bouts, it is still difficult to be sure about what Pickett does well.

He’s rangy, durable and a functional wrestler, but he hasn’t done anything memorable since blowing up Jhonoven Pati on Contender Series.

Still, “rangy, durable, and a functional wrestler” may be enough to carry him past Tiuliulin, a one-dimensional striker with awful takedown defense.

If Pickett can stay busy and mix in the occasional takedown without getting drawn into a slugfest, he’s got the tools to neutralize Tiuliulin and get back on track in the Octagon.

UFC 279: UFC 279: Jake Collier vs. Chris Barnett

Why Bet on Jake Collier

Jake Collier has alternated losses and wins for the entirety of his nearly seven-year Octagon career, starting with a head-kick knockout loss to Vitor Miranda.

His 2022 efforts have seen him choke out Chase Sherman and lose a hugely controversial split decision to Andrei Arlovski, his second split defeat in three fights.

Why Bet on Chris Barnett

Chris Barnett bounced back from an unsuccessful UFC debut by smashing Gian Villante with a bonus-winning wheel kick at UFC 268.

Next came a clash with Contender Series graduate, Martin Buday, who walked away with a technical decision win after an illegal strike in the third round.

All 17 of his finishes have come by knockout.

Jake Collier vs. Chris Barnett Final Betting Analysis:

You’ve gotta feel for Collier because he was plenty competitive against Felipe and there wasn’t a single media outlet that scored the Andrei Arlovski fight against him.

Luckily, there shouldn’t be too much controversy here.

Though Barnett always has the potential to score an out-of-nowhere finish, Collier’s striking fundamentals far outstrip “Huggy Bear’s,” and he knows how to use his height and reach advantages.

There just doesn’t seem to be a whole lot that Barnett can threaten Collier with outside of low-percentage kills hots.

Whether striking at the range or using the wrestling skills he’s shown of late, Collier out-classes Barnett for the full 15 minutes.

UFC 279: Norma Dumont vs. Danyelle Wolf

Why Bet on Norma Dumont

After suffering a knockout loss to Megan Anderson in her UFC debut, Norma Dumont (7-2) got back on track by winning three straight, including a five-round main event against Aspen Ladd.

That momentum wasn’t enough to carry her past Macy Chiasson, though, as the former The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winner out-dueled her to a split decision win.

Why Bet on Danyelle Wolf

Danyelle Wolf (1-0) put together an impressive list of accomplishments in amateur boxing before turning her talents to mixed martial arts (MMA) when the Olympics excluded her weight class.

Her professional debut came on Contender Series, where she took a controversial decision over unbeaten Taneisha Tennant.

She fights for the first time in almost two years.

Norma Dumont vs. Danyelle Wolf Final Betting Analysis:

For Wolf’s sake, she better have improved during her time away.

Dumont beats the Contender Series iteration of Wolf without issue.

That’s because the latter was very fortunate to escape with the victory, showing both a limited striking arsenal outside of jabs and crosses and a weak bottom game.

Based on that performance, Dumont can hold her own on the feet and has shown off enough wrestling skills to ruin Wolf’s day on the mat.

UFC 279: Chad Anheliger vs. Heili Alateng

Why Bet on Chad Anheliger

Chad Anheliger followed his knockout of future TUF finalist, Brady Hiestand, with an upset split decision over Muin Gafarov on the Contender Series.

His subsequent UFC debut pitted him against Jesse Strader, whom he stopped violently late in the third round.

He’s knocked out seven professional foes and submitted three others.

Why Bet on Heili Alateng

Alateng started his UFC career strong with decisions over Batgerel Danaa and Ryan Benoit, only to suffer a one-sided loss to Casey Kenney and a unanimous draw against Gustavo Lopez.

“The Mongolian Knight” returned to the win column dramatically in April 2022, however, knocking out Kevin Croom in just 47 seconds.

Chad Anheliger vs. Heili Alateng Final Betting Analysis:

This seems like a profoundly unfavorable matchup for Anheliger.

Alateng has proven himself powerful enough to hurt Anheliger, who spent two rounds getting out-landed by the technically limited Jesse Strader, and also boasts a strong offensive wrestling game that he used to earn his first two Octagon victories.

Getting taken down five times by a capable grappler in Gafurov is one thing, but surrendering four takedowns to Strader is a serious red flag for Anheliger’s ability to keep it on the feet.

Anheliger can’t even bank on out-working Alateng when the latter can bring him to the mat whenever things get hairy.

UFC 279: Elise Reed vs. Melissa Martinez

Why Bet on Elise Reed

Elise Reed — a former CFFC champion — put a UFC debut loss to Sijara Eubanks behind her to upset Cory McKenna via split decision.

Two months later, she faced Sam Hughes, who overpowered Reed with wrestling and ground-and-pound for a third-round stoppage.

Why Bet on Melissa Martinez

One fight into her professional career, Melissa Martinez took her talents to Combate, ending four of her first five promotion bouts inside the distance.

Her efforts earned her a title shot against Desiree Yanez, which “Super Melly” made the most of with a split decision win.

This marks her first MMA bout in nearly three years, taking a hiatus to focus on kickboxing.

Elise Reed vs. Melissa Martinez Final Betting Analysis:

Reed likely beats the last version of Martinez who entered the cage because “Super Melly” had clear power and potential; however, she was far from a finished product and would have struggled with Reed’s more polished kickboxing.

Thing is, “that” Martinez was from 2019, and she’s spent the last three years practicing pure striking.

In short, we are all expecting a much better Martinez come fight night.

UFC 279: Darian Weeks vs. Yohan Lainesse

Why Bet on Darian Weeks

Darian Weeks’ short-notice UFC debut saw him fight Bryan Barberena to a competitive decision loss at the APEX.

He got no favors in his second effort, which saw him drop another decision to unbeaten Irishman, Ian Machado Garry.

He’s ended all five of his professional wins inside of two rounds.

Why Bet on Yohan Lainesse

Yohan Lainesse went from finishing Evan Cutts for CFFC’s Welterweight title to crushing Justin Burlinson in 97 seconds on Contender Series.

He then started strong in his promotional debut against Gabe Green but succumbed to “Gifted’s” pressure late in the second.

Darian Weeks vs. Yohan Lainesse Final Betting Analysis:

Weeks just hasn’t impressed for real in the octagon — that wrestling of his wasn’t sufficient to neutralize Barberena and he had very little to offer Garry on the feet.

Lainesse has a clear edge in punching power and enough grappling chops of his own to keep Weeks from grinding out a win on top.

That’s true for the first round, at least.

The question is how long Lainesse can keep that up.

He’s burned himself out in record time before, and considering Weeks managed to land more than 100 significant strikes on Barberena, that gas tank will be taxed.

Still, he should be able to do enough damage early and survive late to eke out the win.