The UEFA Nations League presents a major classic this weekend: Italy and France will battle for the top spot in Group 2, though not for qualification, as both have already secured their place in the quarterfinals.
The Italian team defeated Belgium 1-0 away, thanks to a goal by midfielder Sandro Tonali.
Without their star forward, Kylian Mbappé, the French team drew 0-0 with Israel in the last match, meaning they now need a convincing win to take the lead.
Italy vs. France Betting Odds and Free Pick
| Italy 2.85 | France 2.38 | Draw Offs: 3.45 |
| When? | Sunday, November 17 at 2:45 pm ET, 1:45 pm CST, 12:45 pm MT, 11:45 am PT |
| Where? | San Siro |
| Where can I watch it? | fuboTV and FOX Sports 2 |
Why bet on Italy?
After years of struggles, the Italian national team finally seems to be finding its expected level, positioning itself as a strong contender to win the UEFA Nations League.
In their most recent match, they defeated Belgium 1-0 away, with a goal from midfielder Sandro Tonali. This goal brought Italy to 13 points, securing the top spot in Group 2 and ensuring their qualification to the next stage of the European tournament.
So far, Italy remains unbeaten, with four wins and one draw, the latter occurring at home against Belgium. It seems that the headaches of missing out on the last World Cup and a disappointing Euro campaign are being left behind under coach Luciano Spalletti.
Italy is the highest-scoring team in the group, with 12 goals, and has conceded the same number as France, 5. Though he didn’t score in the last match, Frattesi is the Azzurra’s top scorer with three goals, followed by Mateo Retegui and Giovanni Di Lorenzo, each with two.
France’s last two visits to Italy were friendly matches, both of which ended in victories for the visitors, so the locals have some unfinished business on home soil.
Why bet on France?
The French national team has the names to contend for the UEFA Nations League title, but doubts linger about the level Didier Deschamps’ team has shown so far.
Their most recent result—a disappointing 0-0 draw at home against Israel—highlighted these concerns. France needed those three points to have a real chance at overtaking Italy for the group lead. Now,they’ll need to win by at least a two-goal margin to claim first place, a challenging task given their opponent’s strong form.
Additionally, Deschamps made the controversial decision not to call up their star, Kylian Mbappé, following criticism of his inconsistent performances with Real Madrid. While Randal Kolo Muani, Christian Nkunku, Kingsley Coman, and Marcus Thuram are quality players, none possess the same impact as him.
On the positive side, France has won both of its away matches, scoring four goals against Israel and two more against Belgium.
Kolo Muani has been one of the tournament’s standout scorers, with three goals and one assist.
Final Betting Analysis: Italy vs. France
In their last meeting, France lost at home 3-1 to Italy, with goals from Federico Dimarco, Davide Frattesi, and Giacomo Raspadori.
The numbers at Gambyl Exchange have France as the favorite. Their Moneyline shows 2.38, Italy has 2.85, and the draw is at 3.45.
These are two of the biggest teams in Europe, and while both have secured their spots in the quarterfinals, the distinction of group leadership is still on the line. With a 1-1 draw, the Azzurra will clinch it.
Go for a draw. If you bet $100 at 3.45, you will gain $245 for a total payout of $345.
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