This Saturday, July 16th, the UFC takes a trip back to New York City, as Long Island gets a title eliminator match-up that a lot of fans are eager to enjoy this weekend.
With 6 fights on the main card and 6 on the prelims, this event will give us a lot of explosive match-ups and interesting encounters to enjoy and break down.
We are going to go over all of the 12 fights the event has to offer, so sit tight and take notes, as these details are the ones you’ll want to have at hand.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.
UFC Fight Night – Ortega vs. Rodriguez – Betting Odds and Free Picks – Info
When: Saturday, July 16th, at 11:00 am ET
Moneyline odds:
Brian Ortega -170 / Yair Rodriguez +140
Michelle Waterson +255 / Amanda Lemos -330
Jingliang Li +140 / Muslim Salikhov -170
Matt Schnell +210 / Su Mudaerji -270
Shane Burgos -170 / Charles Jourdain +140
Lauren Murphy +170 / Miesha Tate -210
Punahele Soriano -235 / Dalcha Lungiambula +195
Ricky Simón +135 / Jack Shore -165
Bill Algeo -210 / Herbert Burns +170
Dustin Jacoby -105 / Da Un Jung -125
Dwight Grant -135 / Dustin Stoltzfus +105
Jessica Penne +120 / Emily Ducote -150
Draw Offs: –
Where Can I Watch? ESPN +
Where Can I Stream? ESPN Go
UFC Fight Night: Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez
Why Bet on Brian Ortega
Brian Ortega is 15-2 in his professional career, with both of his losses happening in title fights.
The first of those happened in December 2018 when he lost to Max Holloway by technical knockout in a fight for the UFC Featherweight Championship.
His next fight happened in 2020 when he defeated The Korean Zombie, which gave him another shot at the title.
Ortega’s second title challenge happened in September 2021 when he went toe to toe with Alexander Volkanovski.
Unfortunately for Ortega, he suffered the second loss of his career – Volk beat him by unanimous decision.
Why Bet on Yair Rodriguez
Yair Rodriguez is 13-3-1 overall with 8-2-1 in the UFC. Five of his fights were voted the Fight of the Night, while Rodriguez won the Performance of the Night bonus on three occasions.
All this has made him a fan favorite whose fights always get a lot of interest from the crowd.
Apart from getting himself into the spotlight, his recent performances also helped him move up in the rankings.
Right now, he’s sitting in the #3 position in the UFC featherweight rankings, just one spot below Ortega.
Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez Final Betting Analysis:
Ortega is the favorite in Saturday’s fight, but we think Rodriguez has what it takes to cause an upset.
He’s a fine fighter with an impressive portfolio, who’s already won against several high-ranked fighters.
Beating Ortega doesn’t look like a mission impossible for this guy, and the Mexican has the heart to put it all in the cage to get closer to that title fight.
UFC Fight Night: Michelle Waterson vs. Amanda Lemos
Why Bet on Michelle Waterson
The previous time Michelle Waterson went into the octagon was in May 2021 when she fought Marina Rodriguez in a women’s flyweight bout.
Waterson lost that fight, which prompted her to return to her natural weight class – strawweight.
Her most recent strawweight fight saw her beat Angela Hill in September 2020, when she put an end to her two-fight losing streak.
The fighters she lost to were Carla Esparza and Joanna Jedrzejczyk, both of whom later went on to become champions.
Why Bet on Amanda Lemos
Amanda Lemos has lost just two fights since the start of her professional career, one of which happened last April.
Jessica Andrade beat her by submission, thus putting an end to Lemos’ five-fight winning streak.
Speaking of her victorious run, it started with Lemos’ strawweight debut in the UFC when she beat Miranda Granger by technical submission. Before that, she was fighting in the women’s bantamweight division.
After the win over Granger, Lemos went on to beat Mizuki Inoue (unanimous decision), Livia Renata Souza (technical knockout), Monserrat Ruiz (technical knockout) and Angela Hill (split decision).
Michelle Waterson vs. Amanda Lemos Final Betting Analysis:
Amanda Lemos is just bigger, better, and stronger than Michelle Waterson.
That said, we’re almost 100% certain she will win on Saturday.
However, we also believe Waterson’s experience could play a big role in this fight, possibly allowing her to stay on her feet until the final bell.
UFC Fight Night: Jingliang Li vs. Muslim Salikhov
Why Bet on Jingliang Li
Jingliang has won the Performance of the Night bonus on four occasions, while two of his UFC bouts were crowned the Fight of the Night.
Why Bet on Muslim Salikhov
When it comes to Salikhov, he’s won the Performance of the Night bonus only once, but we did see him finish his opponents in style many times.
This guy has won 12 of his 20 fights by knockout/technical knockout.
Jingliang Li vs. Muslim Salikhov Final Betting Analysis:
The main reason why this is supposed to be a real barnburner is that both fighters tend to put on a real spectacle every time they come inside the octagon.
Jingliang must not be underestimated.
He’s a talented fighter who’s got plenty of weapons in his armory, while his opponent is primarily a striker.
We think Jingliang just needs to take Salikhov to the floor to grab a win, and that is our pick for this match.
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Su Mudaerji
Why Bet on Matt Schnell
“Danger” Schnell has been doing well in his professional career as he is 15-6 with a no-contest thus far.
However, he has struggled recently as he is 1-2 with a no-contest in his previous four fights so he needs a good showing to continue climbing the flyweight rankings and try to break into the top five.
Schnell is coming off a guillotine choke submission loss in the first round back on UFC 274 on May 7 against Brandon Royal.
Why Bet on Su Mudaerji
Su “Tibetan Eagle” Madaerji has been turning heads in the world of UFC as he boasts a 16-4 career record at just 26 years of age.
He is riding a three-fight winning streak heading into the octagon this weekend as he defeated Zarrukh Adashev back in January.
The 11th-ranked flyweight has an incredible amount of power behind his attacks as he has ended 13 of his 16 professional victories with a knockout.
Su Mudaerji is coming off a unanimous decision win over Zarrukh Adashev back at UFC on ESPN 20 on January 20.
Matt Schnell vs. Su Mudaerji Final Betting Analysis:
These two fighters have been on two completely different trajectories during their recent fights as Schnell is 1-2 with a no-contest in his previous four fights while Mudaerji has won each of his last three fights.
The Tibetan Eagle is way too powerful for Schnell to just absorb his attacks, so Schnell is going to struggle in this fight.
All in all, we are going with Su Madaerji to pick up another victory via knockout and continue his complete ascension to the top of the UFC Flyweight division.
UFC Fight Night: Shane Burgos vs. Charles Jourdain
Why Bet on Shane Burgos
Burgos has proven he is a top 15 featherweight in the world.
His only three losses have come against Calvin Kattar, Josh Emmett, and Edson Barboza… All top guys in this division.
He will also have a big reach advantage over Jourdain and will look to use that to get a victory.
He should be able to use his slick striking skills and stay at his range for 15 minutes.
But we have seen him get knocked out in the third round twice in his UFC career.
This could be because of several reasons, but you have to worry about his ability to fight for 15 minutes and make good decisions even when he is tired.
Why Bet on Charles Jourdain
Charles Jourdain seems to be stuck in a cycle of losing the fights when he gets a step up in competition.
This weekend will be for sure his biggest step up in the competition of his career.
Burgos is a dangerous man in the cage and it will be a massive test for Jourdain.
Jourdain’s path to victory is to pressure the hell out of Burgos and try to make this fight a brawl.
He will be coming in with big power shots and trying to make this fight ugly.
Shane Burgos vs. Charles Jourdain Final Betting Analysis:
Jourdain needs to make this a war to come out with a victory.
His size disadvantage going up against a good striker like Burgos will lead to a lot of issues if he tries to out-technique him.
Shane Burgos will have a successful night in the octagon if he uses his size and reach to keep Jourdain too far away to land any clean shots, and he will use straight punches down the middle to hurt Jourdain.
Burgos will most likely win via unanimous decision over Charles Jourdain, but this one has big potential to be an all-out war on Saturday night in New York.
UFC Fight Night: Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate
Why Bet on Lauren Murphy
Lauren Murphy had her shot at the title last September when she fought Valentina Shevchenko.
Murphy lost the fight but remains ranked very high – she’s currently third in the UFC Women’s Flyweight Rankings.
Why Bet on Miesha Tate
Tate fought for the title in 2013 for the first time, when she was in the bantamweight division.
Her championship dreams were crushed by the legendary Ronda Rousey.
Three years later, she won the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship by defeating Holly Holm.
Unfortunately for her, she lost the title just a few months later to Amanda Nunes.
She has taken the time to reignite her career once more.
Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate Final Betting Analysis:
Even though she used to hold the championship belt in the UFC for just four months, Miesha Tate is considered one of the greatest female fighters in the history of the promotion.
She’s making her flyweight debut and we think Miesha Tate is going to take into an advantage that she’s more skillful, as well as stronger than Murphy.
However, we also don’t think she’s going to have an easy job on Saturday.
We think it’s very likely this fight will last until the final bell.
UFC Fight Night: Punahele Soriano vs. Dalcha Lungiambula
Why Bet on Punahele Soriano
After taking his first trip to the judges on Contender Series, Punahele Soriano (8-2) returned to his finishing ways with first-round knockouts of Oskar Piechota and Dusko Todorovic.
He’s since struggled to reclaim that momentum, dropping consecutive decisions to fellow Contender Series alums Brendan Allen and Nick Maximov.
His seven professional stoppage wins include five via (technical) knockouts.
Why Bet on Dalcha Lungiambula
Dalcha Lungiambula started his UFC career 2-1 after a double-champ run in the venerable EFC promotion, the one loss coming to Magomed Ankalaev.
Despite the early success, he enters the cage this Saturday amid a two-fight skid.
“Champion” stands three inches shorter than Soriano but will enjoy a 3.5-inch reach advantage.
Punahele Soriano vs. Dalcha Lungiambula Final Betting Analysis:
Lungiambula just can’t seem to combine his immense athleticism, judo background, and punching power into a cohesive whole.
His boxing hasn’t developed properly and he’s yet to find a pace he can sustain while still being effective.
Soriano also may be less than the sum of his parts, but his durability, stout wrestling, and concussive left hand are a formula for success in this match-up.
There just isn’t a clear path to victory for Lungiambula.
Indeed, he can’t outbox Soriano, can’t crack that concrete dome, and can’t consistently take him down.
In short, Soriano finds the mark with something nasty as soon as Lungiambula’s gas tank runs out.
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simón vs. Jack Shore
Why Bet on Ricky Simón
A three-fight win streak, which included victories over division standouts Merab Dvalishvili and Montel Jackson, had Ricky Simon (19-3) on the brink of contention before he suffered consecutive losses to Urijah Faber and Rob Font.
He’s since clawed his way back by winning four straight, the most recent of which saw him knockout Raphael Assuncao in Dec. 2021.
Why Bet on Jack Shore
Jack Shore (16-0) entered the Octagon as the Cage Warriors Bantamweight champion, and his current 5-0 UFC run proved it wasn’t a case of a big fish in a small pond.
His biggest win to date came in March 2022, when he out-dueled Timur Valiev to claim an entertaining decision victory.
He has submitted eight professional foes and knocked out another six.
Ricky Simón vs. Jack Shore Final Betting Analysis:
This is eerily reminiscent of Shore’s match-up with Valiev, which isn’t a great sign for Simon.
Like “Lucky,” Simon has the speed and footwork advantage, plus a strong wrestling game that can give even the rock-solid “Tank” issues.
Also, like “Lucky,” Simon is cursed with a shaky chin that doomed him against Faber and kept him from building any momentum against Font.
While Shore isn’t a one-punch knockout artist, he’s skilled enough and packs enough thump to short-circuit Simon.
All signs point to a super-competitive, back-and-forth battle on both the feet and mat, with Shore’s more telling power shots making the difference.
UFC Fight Night: Bill Algeo vs. Herbert Burns
Why Bet on Bill Algeo
Though he came up short against Brendan Loughnane on Contender Series, Bill Algeo (15-6) got his UFC opportunity by stepping up on short notice to battle Ricardo Lamas to a “Fight of the Night” decision loss.
“Señor Perfecto” is now evened up his UFC record at 2-2, a loss to Ricardo Lamas sandwiched between wins over Spike Carlyle and Joanderson Brito.
Why Bet on Herbert Burns
“The Heat” followed his submission win on Contender Series with consecutive first-round finishes over Nate Landwehr and Even Dunham.
Then came a disastrous run-in with Daniel Pineda that saw Burns miss weight before getting ground-and-pounded into oblivion.
Bill Algeo vs. Herbert Burns Final Betting Analysis:
Algeo’s height, movement, and volume could be a nightmare for Burns, especially after a huge layoff.
If “Señor Perfecto” can drag Burns into the second round, he’s got the tools to snowball the way Pineda did.
That’s a hell of an “if,” though.
That’s because everyone who’s tried to take down Algeo in the Octagon has succeeded, and while Algeo was never in danger on the ground against a decorated black belt in Ricardo Ramos, Burns is on another level.
So long as he’s got the weight cut figured out, Burns drags Algeo to the mat early and finds his neck soon after.
UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Da Un Jung
Why Bet on Dustin Jacoby
The victory for Dustin Jacoby (17-5-1) on Contender Series brought him back to the Octagon, where he’s gone 5-0-1 in his second tenure.
He last saw action in March 2022, fighting through injury to claim a unanimous decision over Michal Oleksiejczuk.
Why Bet on Da Un Jung
Da Un Jung (15-2-1) looked every bit as destructive as advertised in his stoppage victories over Khadis Ibragimov and Mike Rodriguez, though he was fortunate to walk away with a split draw against Sam Alvey.
“Sseda” hasn’t needed that sort of luck since, dominating Contender Series graduates William Knight and Kennedy Nzechukwu in successive efforts.
The Nzechukwu win was his eleventh by knockout and thirteenth stoppage overall.
Dustin Jacoby vs. Da Un Jung Final Betting Analysis:
Outside of his raw power, there’s not a lot going Jung’s way here: he’s flat-footed enough to make Jacoby’s low kicks a lethal weapon and he doesn’t always do a great job of protecting his face.
That power isn’t enough to bridge the gap, either, as Jacoby has withstood dozens of blows from heavy hitters like Ion Cutelaba and John Allan.
Jung does have some wrestling in his back pocket, which he used to great effect against Knight, but Jacoby has proven exceedingly difficult to hold down of late.
With all the tools to recreate Sam Alvey’s successes and a better overall striking game behind it, expect Jacoby to steadily break down Jung’s legs before polishing his flagging foe off late.
UFC Fight Night: Dwight Grant vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Why Bet on Dwight Grant
Dwight Grant (11-5) bounced back from a shock UFC debut loss to Zak Ottow with a bonus-winning one-punch knockout of Carlo Pedersoli, then narrowly edged out Alan Jouban to bump his UFC record over .500.
“The Body Snatcher” went on to lose three of his next four, bookended by knockout losses to Daniel Rodriguez and Sergey Khandozhko.
Why Bet on Dustin Stoltzfus
An injury stoppage of Joseph Pyfer extended Dustin Stoltzfus’ (13-4) win streak to five and earned him a spot in the Octagon.
He’s still looking for his first victory there, having dropped three straight to Kyle Daukaus, Rodolfo Vieira, and Gerald Meerschaert.
He’s scored five submissions as a professional.
Dwight Grant vs. Dustin Stoltzfus Final Betting Analysis:
Moving up to 185 pounds won’t fix what ails Grant.
His disinclination or inability to tighten up his boxing will forever hold him back, and fighting bigger men makes it even less likely that his power can bail him out.
The fact that he’s given up at least one takedown to six of his last seven foes also bodes ill for his ability to keep it standing.
Limited though Stoltzfus may be, the offensive wrestling he showed against Meerschaert offers a convenient means to shut down Grant’s haymakers and grind out a decision.
Unless Stoltzfus gets lazy with his kicks and eats one of Grant’s admittedly effective counters, Stoltzfus cruises to victory from the top in a dull affair.
UFC Fight Night: Jessica Penne vs. Emily Ducote
Why Bet on Jessica Penne
Nearly four years to the day after losing a bogus decision to Danielle Taylor, Jessica Penne (14-5) returned to the UFC to upset Lupita Godinez by decision.
Four months later, she one-upped herself by tapping Karolina Kowalkiewicz with a bonus-winning first-round armbar.
That submission was her ninth in more than 15 years as a professional.
Why Bet on Emily Ducote
Emily Ducote’s (11-6) first shot at Invicta gold saw her struggle with the wrestling of Kanako Murata en route to a split decision loss.
She was quite a bit more successful her next time out, destroying Danielle Taylor for the vacant title and stopping Alesha Zappitella in her first defense.
She steps in for Brianna Fortino on less than two months’ notice.
Jessica Penne vs. Emily Ducote Final Betting Analysis:
Don’t be fooled by Ducote’s record, because she’s 5-1 in her last six bouts, five of them inside the distance.
She’s among the best counter-punchers in the division and a solid grappler to boot, and one should fully expect a lengthy Octagon stint from “Gordinha.”
As for this match-up, it boils down to whether Penne can consistently tie up without getting tattooed by Ducote’s straight right.
Both women thrive in close-quarters engagements, and whoever can dictate where the fight takes place will win it.
Ducote ostensibly has a larger edge on the feet than Penne does in the grappling.
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