The UFC Apex has another exciting event on the way this Saturday, to keep October running, and once more, it is headlined by the female fighters, which was a great move on the first weekend of October.
This time, the event has 12 fights, a little less than what we are used to, but the quality of match-ups means that the event will not be any less exciting than what we should expect.
The main event has two excellent Flyweights contenders who are looking toward making it to the very top of the weight class and getting their shot at the title.
The co-main event sees a rising talent facing a seasoned veteran when Jonathan Martinez meets with Cub Swanson in a Bantamweight Division bout.
With 5 fights in the main card and 7 more on the prelims, there is a lot to enjoy out of this exciting fight card.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.
UFC Fight Night – Grasso vs. Araujo – Betting Odds and Free Picks – Info
When: Saturday, October 15th, at 4:00 pm ET
Moneyline odds:
Alexa Grasso -238 / Viviane Araujo +180
Jonathan Martinez -217 / Cub Swanson +165
Askar Askarov -250 / Brandon Royval +190
Duško Todorović -278 / Jordan Wright +161
Misha Cirkunov +168 / Alonzo Menifield -217
Mana Martinez -166 / Brandon Davis +129
Raphael Assunção +294 / Victor Henry -416
Nick Maximov -138 / Jacob Malkoun +109
Joanderson Brito -400 / Lucas Alexander +288
Piera Rodriguez -172 / Sam Hughes +135
C.J. Vergara +196 / Tatsuro Taira -263
Mike Jackson +464 / Pete Rodriguez -769
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo
Why Bet on Alexa Grasso
The Mexican has been part of the UFC’s roster since late 2016.
However, after struggling for traction as a strawweight, she’s hit her stride at 125 lbs by winning three in a row.
Grasso was initially known for her crisp boxing game, with her grappling seen as somewhat of an Achilles heel.
However, since moving to flyweight, her wrestling and submission games seem to have improved, perhaps because she’s no longer giving up any size to her foes.
Why Bet on Viviane Araujo
Araujo is an excellent grappler who has won five of her seven trips to the octagon after debuting as a bantamweight in the summer of 2019.
For the most part, the Brazilian prefers the top position and has been able to take most of her opponents down, including her most recent one, Andrea Lee.
In that fight, ’KGB’ simply couldn’t stop Araujo’s trips from the clinch and found herself grounded in every round.
Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo Final Betting Analysis:
Currently, Alexa Grasso is ranked at No.5 in the division, while Viviane Araujo is in the No.6 spot.
Therefore, given that Shevchenko has already dispatched No.1-ranked Katlyn Chookagian, No.2-ranked Taila Santos, No.3-ranked Lauren Murphy, and No.4-ranked Jessica Andrade, to see the winner of this one rewarded with a shot at the gold wouldn’t be a surprise.
It’s worth noting that aside from her debut against the overmatched Talita Bernardo, Araujo has been outstruck by almost all of her opponents in terms of volume, even the ones she was able to win by holding down.
This fight, therefore, should come down to whether Grasso can keep things vertical.
Given that Araujo hasn’t proven herself to be a finisher, particularly on the ground, this one should be Grasso’s fight to make a statement.
If she can manage to escape to her feet without taking damage on the ground, she should be able to box her way to victory.
UFC Fight Night: Jonathan Martinez vs. Cub Swanson
Why Bet on Jonathan Martinez
Martinez is an excellent striker himself, though that of a very different variety.
“The Dragon” has one of the best-left legs in the business.
He’s able to thoroughly punish opponents by breaking down their legs and livers with his left shin, and he’s grown quite nasty at intercepting bursts with his left knee also.
That’s not to say his counterpunching is weak, but his kicks just stand out so much.
Why Bet on Cub Swanson
Swanson is an artist in the realm of controlled chaos.
“Killer Cub” has a wild style that is based on heavy swings, stance shifts, and tricky entries.
Perhaps more important than the technical aspects of his game are Swanson’s power, toughness, and willingness to lay it all on the line.
Jonathan Martinez vs. Cub Swanson Final Betting Analysis:
Swanson is moving to Bantamweight, but it is hard to tell why.
He’s won three of his last four, and it is hard to believe he’ll be able to go on a title run at 135 pounds.
Perhaps the 38-year-old veteran is simply losing weight with age and feels it will be an easy cut at this stage.
Whatever the case, it doesn’t inspire confidence.
Martinez is fast and difficult to track down — a lot of Swanson’s bombs are going to miss.
Meanwhile, Martinez has a ripping left body kick, and that’s the very same strike that Giga Chikadze used to pretty much instantly end Swanson last year.
UFC Fight Night: Askar Askarov vs. Brandon Royval
Why Bet on Askar Askarov
Askarov is Flyweight’s premier Sambo specialist. He’s a smothering wrestler, able to hold even excellent scramblers down for longer periods than most.
His kickboxing is solid as well, as Askarov has cracked several opponents desperate to swing big in their few seconds on the feet.
Why Bet on Brandon Royval
Royval is a madman.
He’s trying to calm his approach down a tad, but, overwhelming foes with volume, chaos, and the unexpected has granted him most of his best wins.
He’s a stellar submission fighter with a great eye for opportunity regardless of where the fight goes.
Askar Askarov vs. Brandon Royval Final Betting Analysis:
Thus far, Royval has been fairly impossible to control.
Alexandre Pantoja managed to strangle him, sure, but he did so after largely failing to hold Royval down for most of the fight.
Askarov isn’t quite that level of submission threat, so he’s going to have to keep Royval grounded for long periods.
At the same time, Royval’s takedown defense isn’t at the level of Kara-France.
He’s going to get taken down more often and have to work very hard to stand up without being truly controlled for minutes at a time.
In short, both men are running straight into the other’s strengths.
At Flyweight, counting on ground control to win fights seems like a difficult and untrustworthy strategy at the elite level.
That current trend has things leaning towards Royval, as well as the simple fact that Royval will always be the more serious finishing threat.
UFC Fight Night: Duško Todorović vs. Jordan Wright
Why Bet on Duško Todorović
Todorovic, 28, has skills.
He can wrestle, grapple and fight well for three rounds.
Against Pitolo, he also showed off some very nice counterpunching and controlled range well.
Unfortunately, he’s also fought some massive hitters, and that typically hasn’t gone swimmingly for him.
Why Bet on Jordan Wright
Wright certainly qualifies as a heavy hitter. All 12 of his victories come via finish often in the first round.
More specifically, often in the first minute of the first round.
He fights balls-to-the-walls, looking to take out his opponents immediately or go down swinging.
Final Betting Analysis: Duško Todorović vs. Jordan Wright
There is a very reasonable chance Todorovic gets sparked.
He’s not the most defensively responsible fighter, and Wright hits plenty hard.
Still, Todorovic is the overall better fighter.
He should have the clinch skill to avoid eating a massive knee until his opponent slows down, and from that point, Todorovic should run him over.
UFC Fight Night: Misha Cirkunov vs. Alonzo Menifield
Why Bet on Misha Cirkunov
Misha Cirkunov (15-8) entered the Octagon with high expectations for his future, which he lived up to with four consecutive dominant finishes.
He’s just 2-6 since, including a submission loss to Wellington Turman in his last effort.
Why Bet on Alonzo Menifield
Two consecutive first-round knockouts gave way to two straight losses in the Octagon for Alonzo Menifield (12-3), a two-time Contender Series winner.
He now sits at 3-1 in his last four, most recently smashing Askar Mozharov for his ninth career first-round victory.
Eleven of his professional wins have come inside the distance, eight via knockout.
Misha Cirkunov vs. Alonzo Menifield Final Betting Analysis:
It’s been genuinely depressing to watch Cirkunov’s decline.
Those back-to-back losses to Volkan Oezdemir and Glover Teixeira seem like they broke something in him.
It’s not like he’s losing to terrible fighters, but his grappling and striking look like shadows of their former selves.
It wouldn’t be too surprising to see him find some early takedown success, to be fair.
It just doesn’t figure to last against the faster, more powerful Menifield, and Cirkunov’s history of collapsing under fire suggests that “Atomic” only needs one good connection to kick off the end.
In short, Menifield blasts him out inside the first five minutes.
UFC Fight Night: Mana Martinez vs. Brandon Davis
Why Bet on Mana Martinez
Nearly 1.5 years after falling to Drako Rodriguez on Contender Series, Mana Martinez (9-3) secured his first UFC victory with a split decision over Guido Cannetti.
Then came Ronnie Lawrence from Contender Series, who survived a Hail Mary knockdown to out-strike and out-wrestle “Manaboi” to a decision win.
He has scored eight knockouts as a professional, five of them in the first round.
Why Bet on Brandon Davis
Brandon Davis (14-9) punched his ticket to UFC with an impressive decision on Contender Series, only to leave the promotion on a 2-5 skid.
After four wins on the regional scene, he returned to the promotion to face Danaa Batgerel, who handed “Killer B” the first knockout loss of his career.
Mana Martinez vs. Brandon Davis Final Betting Analysis:
Davis’ best attribute has always been his durability.
He was never a heavy hitter or a technical marvel, but he could at least turn in a solid effort for the full 15 minutes.
That knockout loss to Danaa is a bad sign.
Indeed, even though Martinez has underwhelmed in two UFC appearances, the guy has ludicrous one-punch power that’s felled even the inordinately resilient Ricky Turcios.
If he lands flush, Davis is going down.
If Davis wants any hope of victory, he has to wrestle, and he’s done so before against Giga Chikadze.
However, With his historically shaky defense and Martinez’s ability to carry his power late, it seems inevitable that Martinez’s left hand will find the mark and turn the lights out.
UFC Fight Night: Raphael Assunção vs. Victor Henry
Why Bet on Raphael Assunção
An 11-1 run — the sole loss coming to T.J. Dillashaw — had World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) veteran Raphael Assunção (27-9) knocking on the door of title contention.
Four consecutive losses followed, and he enters the cage this Saturday winless in the last four years.
Why Bet on Victor Henry
“La Mangusta” rode an 8-1 run into his Octagon debut, which he entered as a massive underdog against dangerous veteran Raoni Barcelos.
Despite losing the first round, Henry’s pressure ultimately turned the tide and earned him a unanimous decision win.
He’s submitted eight professional opponents and knocked out another six.
Raphael Assunção vs. Victor Henry Final Betting Analysis:
The best-case scenario for Assunção is that he just can’t handle elite-level competition anymore.
All four of the men he lost to in his current skid are extremely dangerous, or at least they were at the time.
We can’t say how he’ll do against middle-of-the-pack guys like Henry.
Thing is, Assunção is 40 years old and it’s been ages since he showed even a flash of the potent counter-striking that made him such a threat in the past.
Henry’s consistent, high-volume pressure worked against a younger, more immediately dangerous counter specialist in Barcelos, and it should be just as effective here.
In the end, he out-works Assunção to a clear unanimous decision win.
UFC Fight Night: Nick Maximov vs. Jacob Malkoun
Why Bet on Nick Maximov
Nick Maximov (8-1) — who grappled his way to victory over a Heavyweight on Contender Series — defeated fellow Contender Series veterans Cody Brundage and Punahele Soriano in his first two UFC appearances.
The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran, Andre Petroski, proved a step too far, however, finishing Maximov with an anaconda choke in just 76 seconds.
His professional finishes are split two-three between knockouts and submissions.
Why Bet on Jacob Malkoun
A disastrous UFC debut saw Jacob Malkoun (6-2) fold with punches just 18 seconds into his clash with Phil Hawes.
Two straight decision wins followed, though a narrow June 2022 loss to Brendan Allen knocked his Octagon record back down to .500.
Nick Maximov vs. Jacob Malkoun Final Betting Analysis:
Either Maximov is going to lie on Malkoun for 15 minutes or Malkoun is going to lie on Maximov.
Neither man has shown off the submission prowess needed to tap the other, and though Malkoun does possess some solid boxing, it is easy to doubt they’ll spend long enough at the striking range for it to be a factor.
The edge should be on Malkoun’s side.
He can match Maximov’s pace, is the more active ground-and-pounder, and has the aforementioned striking advantage.
The issues Maximov had with Petroski and Soriano, at least before the latter suffered an injury, also suggest that he might not be able to handle similarly credentialed grapplers.
In the end, Malkoun emerges victorious in a deeply boring battle.
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Lucas Alexander
Why Bet on Joanderson Brito
A Contender Series decision win over Diego Lopes earned Brito (13-3-1) a UFC debut against Bill Algeo, who outstruck “Tubarao” to snap a 12-fight unbeaten streak.
Things worked out a bit better for him his next time out, as he smashed Andre Fili in just 41 seconds to win Performance of the Night.
He’s submitted six pro foes and knocked out another five.
Why Bet on Lucas Alexander
Alexander (7-2) started his professional career 2-2 before embarking on his current winning streak.
He’s ended his last three fights inside the distance, including a 2022 stoppage of Jacob Kilburn that saw him injure the UFC veteran’s arm with a body kick.
He replaces Melsik Baghdasaryan on less than a week’s notice.
Joanderson Brito vs. Lucas Alexander Final Betting Analysis:
There are UFC Featherweights that Alexander has a shot at beating, but Brito isn’t one of them.
Recent opponents have enjoyed plenty of success backing Alexander to the fence and scoring takedowns, and none of them offered the level of aggression and overall grappling skill that Brito brings to the table.
Alexander also tends to keep his hands low, which is incredibly ill-advised against someone who throws with this much heat.
Alexander’s best chance lies in his check hook, which he’ll have plenty of opportunities to land.
Between the short notice and Brito’s toughness, however, it’s far likelier that “Tubarao” physically overwhelms him and finds his neck around halfway through.
UFC Fight Night: Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes
Why Bet on Piera Rodriguez
Piera Rodriguez (8-0) followed her LFA title-winning knockout of Svetlana Gotsyk with a dominant decision win over Valesca Machado in Contender Series.
Her efforts earned her a UFC contract, which “La Fiera” broke into by beating Kay Hansen in her debut.
Five of her professional victories have come by knockout.
Why Bet on Sam Hughes
Sam Hughes (7-1) — a former LFA title challenger — struggled her way to a winless (0-3) UFC start.
Leaning on her wrestling appears to have been the adjustment she needed, however, and she steps into the cage amid a two-fight winning streak.
Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes Final Betting Analysis:
Hughes showed impressive resilience against Istela Nunes and looked better than ever against Elise Reed, hunting down the fleet-of-foot striker and utterly mauling her on the mat.
That renewed focus on wrestling should serve her well here, as Rodriguez struggled off her back in the opening round of her fight with Hansen.
Though Rodriguez did end up turning the tables, Hughes is ostensibly a more technically sound takedown artist than Hansen and seems to get stronger as the fight goes on.
Rodriguez also lacks the firepower to put down Hughes for good, so expect Hughes’ aggression and constant wrestling attack to carry her to an increasingly one-sided decision.
UFC Fight Night: C.J. Vergara vs. Tatsuro Taira
Why Bet on C.J. Vergara
An upset knockout of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Brazil veteran Bruno Korea earned C.J. Vergara (10-3-1) a UFC debut against Ode Osbourne, who out-lasted the Texan to claim a unanimous decision victory.
He then took on another Contender Series graduate, Kleydson Rodriguez, winning a highly controversial split decision at UFC 274.
Why Bet on Tatsuro Taira
Tatsuro Taira (11-0) amassed a perfect (9-0) amateur record before turning pro in 2018 and making his name under the Shooto banner.
He made his UFC debut in May 2022, dominating two-time Contender Series veteran Carlos Candelario for a wide decision win.
Five of his eight professional stoppage wins have come by submission.
C.J. Vergara vs. Tatsuro Taira Final Betting Analysis:
More than anything else, this is a test of Taira’s fight IQ.
He’s an absolute wizard on the mat but is often willing to eschew takedowns in favor of trading hands.
Though he’s an adept striker — as we saw in that masterclass against Candelario — this could easily allow Vergara to sway the judges with raw aggression as he did in what was, frankly, a clear loss to Rodriguez.
In short, Taira holds his own on the feet and mixes in regular takedowns until he finds Vergara’s back and chokes his lights out.
UFC Fight Night: Mike Jackson vs. Pete Rodriguez
Why Bet on Mike Jackson
The ignominious UFC debut for Mike Jackson (1-1) saw him tapped in 45 seconds by Mickey Gall, and a failed drug test overturned his win over C.M. Punk two years later.
It would be nearly four more years before “The Truth” again set foot in the Octagon, walking away with a disqualification victory over Dean Barry.
Why Bet on Pete Rodriguez
Rodriguez followed a 7-2 amateur run with four straight knockouts in Jorge Masvidal’s iKon Fighting Federation.
He subsequently stepped up on short notice to fight Contender Series graduate, Jack Della Maddalena, who knocked out “Dead Game” midway through the first round.
Three of his four knockout wins came in less than 90 seconds.
Mike Jackson vs. Pete Rodriguez Final Betting Analysis:
This fight honestly feels like an apology to Rodriguez for letting a monster like Della Maddalena use his head as a speed bag.
Not saying he’s a world-beater or that Jackson can’t fight, but Jackson has always been a more accomplished photographer than a mixed martial artist.
Even Rodriguez’s rudimentary slugging should be more than sufficient to carry him past a part-time fighter who couldn’t even impress against Punk.
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