The UFC has a stacked card for the event at Dallas, Texas, this Saturday, July 30th at UFC 277, where an Undisputed Title and an Interim Title are on the line.
First of all, we get a rematch title fight to see if the new reigning champ does really have what it takes, or if the current challenger just had a bad night last time she stepped into the octagon.
We also get an interim title fight that seems like a pit stop for a fighter who many believe should still be the undisputed champion after a fight that left everybody with a bad taste in their mouths.
With these two exciting fights, we top a fight card with 13 match-ups and talented fighters.
We are going to take the time to analyze each of the fights on the card, to be prepared for what has been brewing for the fans in the Dallas event.
With 8 prelims and 5 fights on the main card, we have a lot of work to do to get you ready to place your picks for the event.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.
UFC 277 – Pena vs. Nunes 2 – Betting Odds and Free Picks – Info
When: Saturday, July 30th, at 6:00 pm ET
Moneyline odds:
Julianna Peña +220 / Amanda Nunes -280
Brandon Moreno -210 / Kai Kara-France +170
Derrick Lewis +100 / Sergei Pavlovich -130
Alexandre Pantoja -180 / Alex Perez +150
Magomed Ankalaev -540 / Anthony Smith +390
Alex Morono +130 / Matt Semelsberger -160
Drew Dober -195 / Rafael Alves +160
Don’Tale Mayes -180 / Hamdy Abdelwahab +150
Drakkar Klose -210 / Rafa García +170
Michael Morales -600 / Adam Fugitt +400
Ji Yeon Kim +105 / Joselyne Edwards -135
Nick Negumereanu -105 / Ihor Potieria -125
Orion Cosce -180 / Blood Diamond +150
Draw Offs: –
Where Can I Watch? ESPN +
Where Can I Stream? ESPN Go
UFC 277: Julianna Peña vs. Amanda Nunes
Why Bet on Julianna Peña
Last December, Julianna Peña shocked the world when she submitted Nunes with a rear-naked choke in the second round.
That victory improved her record to 7-2 in the octagon, with her only defeats coming against two of the best women’s fighters on the planet — Germaine de Randamie and Valentina Shevchenko.
The Venezuelan Vixen is a grappling specialist who is at her best on the mat, but she did an excellent job of landing her jab and trading shots in the pocket in the second round against Nunes.
Why Bet on Amanda Nunes
Amanda “The Lioness” Nunes is widely considered the greatest female fighter in MMA history.
Before December’s loss, she had reeled off 12 consecutive wins — including nine straight in title fights.
Nunes has defeated both Shevchenko and de Randamie twice while also having first-round finishes over former champs Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Ronda Rousey, and Miesha Tate.
The Lioness is a complete fighter with terrific grappling ability, powerful takedowns, and vicious ground and pound.
Julianna Peña vs. Amanda Nunes Final Betting Analysis:
Nunes might have been a tad overconfident going into her last fight, which can happen when you’ve rarely been tested in seven years.
She had plenty of success in the first round, both in the stand-up position and on the mat, but her overconfidence in her grappling ability almost led to a Kimura from Peña.
She looked both gassed and reckless in the second round, taking shots to the face from Peña but refusing to change her tactics and continuing to try to walk down her opponent.
That said, we’ve seen Nunes with much better cardio in the past, and she has likely shored up that weakness while training for the rematch.
If she doesn’t push for an early finish and conserves her energy, she has the tools to pick apart Peña.
Expect a more methodical and conservative approach from Nunes this time around as she regains her belt.
UFC 277: Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France
Why Bet on Brandon Moreno
Moreno is coming off a brutal trilogy with Deivison Figueiredo, where he went 1-1-1 as the flyweight title changed twice in their titanic brawls.
When these two faced off over 18 months ago, Kara-France stormed out of the gates with a great opening round but couldn’t maintain the torrid pace as Moreno outworked him to win a decision.
Why Bet on Kai Kara-France
Kara-France has won four of his last five since the loss to Moreno, with his most impressive performance being his most recent, handing Askar Askarov his first defeat by decision.
A strong kickboxer with a debilitating offense, Kara-France has scored three finishes in his last four wins.
Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France Final Betting Analysis:
Time has passed, but these two have gotten better ahead of what should be another competitive rematch.
With one fighter being a ground specialist and another a striking specialist, this fight will be decided on who can control the center of the octagon.
In their first fight, Moreno was able to take the best Kara-France had and left him in the dust, but the strain of the Figueiredo fights looms over him.
Kara-France has to test Moreno’s resolve early like before but needs to adjust and not repeat the same telegraphed approach that cost him the first time around.
Moreno has ascended to the true elite of the flyweights, and while Kara-France is a worthy challenger, there’s still the sense that Moreno is a bridge he can’t cross.
We’re going with Moreno to once again defeat Kara-France.
UFC 277: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Why Bet on Derrick Lewis
Lewis is 26-9 in his professional career, with most of his defeats happening to A-list fighters.
He got knocked out six times in total so far, with his most recent loss happening in February to Tai Tuivasa.
We also saw him lose by KO/TKO to fighters like Cyril Gane, Junior dos Santos, and Mark Hunt.
Why Bet on Sergei Pavlovich
Pavlovich has set his eyes on the UFC heavyweight title.
However, the Russian is still miles away from it, especially considering that we could see Jon Jones challenging the title shortly.
Still, if Pavlovich keeps on fighting as he’s been so far, he could force Dana White to give him a title shot sooner than expected.
The 30-year-old is 15-1 with his only loss happening on his UFC debut when Alistair Overeem beat him by TKO.
However, since then, Pavlovich is 3-0 in the promotion.
Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich Final Betting Analysis:
The Black Beast has the nuclear option on his opponent thanks to his incredibly powerful punch, but his chin might not be strong enough to sustain Pavlovich’s strikes.
Lewis knows this, which is why you can be certain that he’s going to fight smart on Saturday.
Instead of rushing to get a quick win, we could see him go slower than usual.
Knowing this, it seems that this fight will be decided not by the power of their strikes but by the fighter’s stamina.
So, who’s got more stamina? Contrary to what bookmakers think, Pavlovich might be the guy.
UFC 277: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Alex Perez
Why Bet on Alexandre Pantoja
Alexandre Pantoja is making his way up the flyweight rankings thanks to a well-rounded skill set that has him on a two-fight winning streak.
The Brazilian has rebounded after a narrow decision loss to Askar Askarov in 2020 with dominant performances over Manel Kape and Brandon Royval.
In those two fights, he showcased excellent striking in one fight and vicious grappling in the second.
Why Bet on Alex Perez
Alex Perez is trying to make his 2022 debut after he blew the weigh-in and killed a fight with Matt Schnell last February.
It would have ended an already long layoff following his first-round submission loss to Figueiredo, but he now finds himself in a fight with larger implications.
The durable Perez cannot afford another setback here.
While Perez boasts a modest 12 finishes in 24 fights, only three of his fights have gone the distance, dating back five years.
Using sharp boxing and excellent grappling, Perez can smother his opponents and usually opts to play the long game.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Alex Perez Final Betting Analysis:
On paper, these two seem evenly matched, but the grittier and tougher Pantoja is favored for a reason.
Perez is a solid fighter, but his power is average and relies primarily on his grappling to establish his offense.
Against that same physical type of style, he was outsmarted by Joseph Benavidez and mauled into a guillotine choke by Figueiredo.
If Pantoja can keep the fight standing, he’ll catch Perez with the harder shots and close the distance where he can either target his body or shoot for a takedown.
He should walk out of the octagon turning away a stiff challenge from Perez.
UFC 277: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Anthony Smith
Why Bet on Magomed Ankalaev
Ankalaev is riding on a 13-fight win streak that started in September 2018.
In the first two years of his UFC career, he fought mostly against other newcomers.
However, in 2020, the promotion started pitting him against some real elite opponents.
It all started with a fight with Ion Cutelaba in February 2020 which Ankalaev won by controversial TKO.
Ankalaev then proved to be a sport by accepting a rematch.
It happened in October 2020 and Ankalaev won again, this time by KO.
Since then, he’s fought another three fights – against Nikita Krylov, Volkan Oezdemir, and Thiago Santos – winning each time by unanimous decision.
Why Bet on Anthony Smith
Since joining the UFC in 2016, Smith has never won more than three fights in a row.
In his previous three fights, Smith defeated Devin Clark, Jimmy Crute, and Ryan Spann.
The last time Smith won against a fighter from the Top 10 in the UFC light heavyweight rankings was in June 2019 when he submitted Alexander Gustafsson.
Although not too much time has passed since, Smith did fight five bouts in the meantime, going 3-2.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Anthony Smith Final Betting Analysis:
Even though Smith is a seasoned fighter, we don’t think he can do much against Ankalaev.
It’s just that the Russian fighter is much, much better than him.
Ankalaev is currently fourth in the UFC light heavyweight rankings, but we feel as if he belongs even higher.
He is making a statement to prove he deserves to challenge for the title.
The best way to prove that is to get a win on Saturday.
UFC 277: Alex Morono vs. Matt Semelsberger
Why Bet on Alex Morono
Alex Morono (21-7) started his UFC career 3-2 (1 NC), one of those wins a controversial one over Kyle Noke, and the “No Contest” an overturned knockout loss to Niko Price.
He has since found his footing in a big way, winning seven of his next nine and putting together an ongoing three-fight win streak.
Why Bet on Matt Semelsberger
Matthew Semelsberger (10-3) — who once sat at 3-2 as a professional — won five straight before falling short against Khaos Williams.
He bounced back with a 15-second wipeout of Martin Sano, then edged out unbeaten A.J. Fletcher in March 2022.
He’s knocked out six professional foes and submitted one other.
Alex Morono vs. Matt Semelsberger Final Betting Analysis:
Morono’s skills sneak up on you.
Brawling stand-up and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu game hampered by poor wrestling do not a contender make, but he just keeps making it work against a wide variety of opponents.
It might not work here, though.
Semelsberger’s boxing is too sharp and his power too potent for Morono to out-slug him on the feet, and his defensive grappling held up nicely against the very determined Fletcher.
Though Morono’s always game, it’s hard not to picture Semelsberger timing one of “The Great White’s” big swings and coming back with a fight-ending straight right down the pipe.
In short, a developing slugfest ends abruptly via a one-hitter quitter.
UFC 277: Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves
Why Bet on Drew Dober
The 6-1 Octagon run for Drew Dober (24-11), which featured three post-fight bonuses, gave way to consecutive losses to Islam Makhachev and Brad Riddell.
Nine months after the latter defeat, he survived a flying knee to knock out Terrance McKinney and re-enter the win column.
His professional finishes are split 9/8 between submissions and knockouts.
Why Bet on Rafael Alves
Rafael Alves (20-10) impressed on Contender Series with a second-round guillotine finish and looked poised to shock Damir Ismagulov after an early knockdown in his debut, but couldn’t maintain the momentum.
“The Turn” capitalized quite a bit better on his next opportunity, choking out Marc Diakiese 108 seconds into their Nov. 2021 fight.
Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves Final Betting Analysis:
Fighting Alves is like walking through a minefield.
He doesn’t have the fundamentals to set up his wild power strikes or the wrestling to bring his lethal submissions to bear, but as Diakiese learned, all he needs is one slip-up to end the night in an instant.
Unfortunately for him, Dober’s up to the task of threading the needle.
He’s by far the superior striking technician and is inordinately difficult to finish.
Indeed, Alves’ opportunities will be few and far between, and he’ll have a mighty hard time capitalizing on them.
In the end, Dober stays patient and out-boxes Alves to a mid-round stoppage.
UFC 277: Don’Tale Mayes vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab
Why Bet on Don’Tale Mayes
Two years after falling to Allen Crowder on Contender Series, Don’Tale Mayes (9-4) secured a spot in the Octagon by knocking out Ricardo Prasel in his second appearance on the program.
He proceeded to lose his first two UFC bouts to Ciryl Gane and Rodrigo Nascimento but has since evened up his record in the promotion with wins over Roque Martinez and Josh Parisian.
Why Bet on Hamdy Abdelwahab
Abdelwahab represented his native Egypt in Greco-Roman wrestling at the 2016 Olympics, ultimately bowing out in the Round of 16.
His pro MMA career has seen him stop all five opponents via (technical) knockout, the most recent of them in June 2022.
Don’Tale Mayes vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab Final Betting Analysis:
Credentialed and physically impressive though he may be, Abdelwahab remains a work in progress.
His stand-up is limited, his professional competition weak, and his top game is well behind his wrestling.
Mayes is just too seasoned and Abdelwahab is too green at this point.
If they met at their hypothetical peaks, Abdelwahab would run him over, but all that matters is where they are here and now.
When the dust settles, “Lord Kong” will put away his flagging for some time in the third frame.
UFC 277: Drakkar Klose vs. Rafa García
Why Bet on Drakkar Klose
The three-fight win streak for Drakkar Klose (12-2-1) came to an end in an absolute war with Beneil Dariush, who felled Klose with a vicious overhand left in the second round.
A two-year layoff followed, which Klose ended with an absolute mauling of Brandon Jenkins in April 2022.
Why Bet on Rafa García
“Gifted” entered the Octagon undefeated and with the Combate Lightweight title around his waist, only to drop consecutive decisions to Nasrat Haqparast and Chris Gruetzemacher.
He proceeded to edge out Contender Series graduate, Natan Levy, to get on the scoreboard, then submitted Jesse Ronson five months later.
Drakkar Klose vs. Rafa García Final Betting Analysis:
Garcia is not to be underestimated here. Strong takedown artists have given Klose plenty of issues in the past, and “Gifted” is gritty enough to hold his own on the feet as well.
It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him grind his way to an upset victory.
It would, however, be more surprising than Klose’s aggression and striking variety carrying the day.
Plus, Klose was already preparing for a much more dangerous grappler and striker in Ferreira, so he’s not likely to be caught unawares here. In short, he sprawls and brawls to victory.
UFC 277: Michael Morales vs. Adam Fugitt
Why Bet on Michael Morales
Ecuador’s Michael Morales (13-0) toppled the favored Nikolay Veretennikov on Contender Series to secure a UFC contract.
He was even more successful in his Octagon debut, which saw him knockout Trevin Giles late in the first round.
That victory marked his tenth by (technical) knockout and eleventh stoppage overall.
Why Bet on Adam Fugitt
Adam Fugitt (8-2) — whose only professional losses came to future Contender Series hopefuls Austin Vanderford and Kailan Hill — scored three consecutive finishes before assorted issues forced a two-year layoff.
He returned in a big way in Feb. 2022, smashing massive favorite Solomon Renfro in less than one minute.
Michael Morales vs. Adam Fugitt Final Betting Analysis:
With all due respect to Fugitt, he’s far less of a threat to Morales than Giles was.
Fugitt’s best weapons are his top control and ground-and-pound, neither of which figure to be much of a factor against a more credentialed wrestler.
That means he has to beat Morales on the feet, and though he’s adept with his kicks, his defensive issues and limited boxing make it a matter of time before Morales finds his chin.
There have been wilder upsets, but between his inability to use his strengths and the sheer firepower coming back his way, Fugitt’s odds are slim.
In short, Morales clips him inside the first five minutes.
UFC 277: Ji Yeon Kim vs. Joselyne Edwards
Why Bet on Ji Yeon Kim
Ji Yeon Kim (9-5-2) battled her way to a 3-2 UFC start, highlighted by an upset decision over Justine Kish and a two-round beatdown of Nadia Kassem.
“Fire Fist” now finds herself amid a three-fight skid, though her most recent defeat to Priscila Cachoeira was unquestionably a robbery.
Why Bet on Joselyne Edwards
Joselyne Edwards (11-4) worked her way to a 2018 LFA title shot against future UFC competitor Sarah Alpar, who narrowly edged out “La Pantera” throughout five rounds.
She would ultimately make her journey to the Octagon two years later, and she now sits at 2-2 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion.
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Joselyne Edwards Final Betting Analysis:
This has “controversial decision” written all over it. Indeed, a match-up between high-output strikers with a history of nail-biters is just asking for trouble.
Things may be leaning towards Kim.
She’s held her own against quality strikers like Alexa Grasso in the past, can exceed Edwards’ volume, and sits down on her punches enough to offset Edwards’ flurries in the eyes of the judges.
In the end, heavier blows edge things out for “Fire Fist.”
UFC 277: Nick Negumereanu vs. Ihor Potieria
Why Bet on Nick Negumereanu
Nick Negumereanu (12-1) lost his undefeated record in his UFC debut, which saw Saparbeg Safarov out-work and out-wrestle him to a unanimous decision win.
A subsequent two-year stint on the sidelines appears to have worked out for him, racking up three consecutive victories.
Why Bet on Ihor Potieria
Ukraine’s Ihor Potieira (20-2) rode a 16-fight win streak into Contender Series, where he squared off with unbeaten Lukasz Sudolski.
Though Potieria entered as the underdog, a heavy flurry secured both a first-round knockout and a UFC contract.
He’s won 16 professional fights via stoppage, including nine by knockout.
Nick Negumereanu vs. Ihor Potieria Final Betting Analysis:
Negumereanu’s current run is better on paper than in reality.
His recent win over Kennedy Nzechukwu was a legitimate robbery, and neither Aleksa Camur nor Ike Villanueva has accomplished much in the Octagon.
His face-first approach might just work out here, though. Potieria’s tendency to jump into range with big, wide flurries should give Negumereanu plenty of opportunities to land his haymakers and get in on the Ukrainian’s hips for takedowns.
Plus, even if he can’t wrangle Potieria to the mat, the latter’s been controlled against the cage before.
Potieria will land the bigger strikes but expect Negumereanu to zombie-walk his way to another narrow decision.
UFC 277: Orion Cosce vs. Blood Diamond
Why Bet on Orion Cosce
Orion Cosce (7-1) joined brother Louis in the Octagon thanks to a buzzer-beater finish of the heavily-favored Matt Dixon on Contender Series.
He enjoyed a good first round in his UFC debut against Phil Rowe, but ultimately succumbed to punches late in the second.
All of his pro wins have come inside the distance, six of them via strikes.
Why Bet on Blood Diamond
Mike Mathetha (3-1) — another City Kickboxing export — was originally slated to debut against Cosce in Feb. 2022 before “Galaxy” withdrew because of an injury.
In stepped Jeremiah Wells, who took down “Blood Diamond” in the opening seconds and ultimately drew a tap via rear-naked choke.
Orion Cosce vs. Blood Diamond Final Betting Analysis:
Having just watched Mathetha lose to a physically imposing slugger with a solid wrestling game, we are not liking his chances against a second one.
Though Cosce lacks Wells’ Brazilian jiu-jitsu prowess, there doesn’t appear to be much stopping him from similarly mauling Mathetha.
Blood Diamond has the edge on the feet, sure, but the threat of Cosce’s takedowns should go a long way towards neutralizing the former’s kicks.
Unless Mathetha can catch Cosce with something nasty in the opening minutes, “Galaxy’s” going to squeeze the life out of him on top and against the fence.
So long as Cosce’s still got the confidence to go bulldozer mode, he takes out Mathetha with ground-and-pound inside the first round.
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