Roma vs. Lazio Preview and Free Pick

Roman derby to kick off the year in Serie A, with a struggling Roma hosting a Lazio team competing at the top of the table.

La Lupa ended 2024 with a 1-1 draw against Milan, courtesy of a goal from Paulo Dybala.

Meanwhile, Il Aquile also settled for a draw with the same scoreline, this time against Atalanta, the league leaders.

Roma vs. Lazio Betting Odds and Info

Why bet on Roma?

Roma isn’t having the season it hoped for. With 20 points, they sit in 10th place, having secured five wins, five draws, and eight losses, with 24 goals scored and 24 conceded. These results weren’t favorable initially under Ivan Jurić and now under Claudio Ranieri.

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Milan, following a dominant 5-0 victory over Parma. Paulo Dybala has been the standout player in these two games, scoring three goals and providing one assist. It was the Argentine’s first goal since October 31, raising hopes among Roman fans for a resurgence from their star player.

At home, Roma has fared slightly better, winning five matches and losing four. In their last two home games, they scored nine goals while conceding just one, which came from a penalty. Since Ranieri’s arrival, Roma has only lost one home game, a 0-2 defeat to Atalanta. They’ve also claimed victories against Braga (3-0) in the Europa League and Sampdoria (4-1) in the Coppa Italia.

The only confirmed absence is Bryan Cristante due to injury, while forward Artem Dovbyk has resumed full training.

Why bet on Lazio?

Unlike their city rivals, Lazio is competing at the top of the Serie A. With 35 points, they sit fourth, just six points behind leaders Atalanta. In their last match, they drew 1-1 against La Dea in the Italian capital. Fisayo Dele-Bashiru scored in the 27th minute for Lazio, but the visitors equalized late in the game, with Marco Brescianini netting in the 88’.

Despite their high standing, Lazio needs to improve defensively. Their 25 goals conceded are the worst among the top eight teams. In fact, if not for ninth-place Udinese (28), they would have the worst defense among the top 12. The Biancocelesti has allowed goals in their last three matches, including a painful 0-6 defeat to Inter. They’ve only kept a clean sheet in one of their last five games (a 0-1 win over Napoli).

As visitors, Lazio has matched Roma’s home stats: five wins and four losses. They’ve secured two consecutive away victories and four in their last five away games, a promising sign.

After a tough first season, Valentín Castellanos is emerging as the goal-scorer Lazio needed, proving to be a decent replacement for Ciro Immobile. He has seven goals and one assist so far. Mattia Zaccagni (5 goals) and Boulaye Dia (4 goals) have also been crucial contributors.

In the attacking department, Nuno Tavares has been a revelation. The fullback has eight assists in Serie A, more than any other player in the league. However, he hasn’t registered an assist in his last five matches.

Marco Baroni will face some key absences for this game. Matías Vecino is ruled out, while Tijjani Noslin and Pedro are doubtful. On a positive note, Manuel Lazzari and Patric are expected to return to the squad.

Final Betting Analysis: Roma vs. Lazio

The last time these two teams met was on April 6, 2024, when Roma won 1-0 with a goal from Gianluca Mancini. Before that, Lazio was unbeaten in four matches, including Coppa Italia, with three victories. Notably, the last five encounters between these teams have seen no more than one goal per game, and two of them featured red cards for both sides.

The odds at Gambyl Exchange slightly favor Roma, with a Moneyline of 2.63, while Lazio is at 3.01, and a draw is set at 3.29.

A derby is a derby. Regardless of their position in the standings or recent form, these matches stand on their own. Roma has been improving under their new coach and has Paulo Dybala in good shape, while Lazio has proven to be strong on the road. We believe this will be a tight game and will end in a 1-1 draw.

Go for a draw. If you bet $100 at 3.29, you will gain $229 for a total payout of $329.

Roma vs. Lazio Betting Pick: Draw