We are on the last matchday of the UEFA Champions League group stage, and things are getting fun. Even though most of the spots have owners for the next stage, there are some groups where things can shake hard.
Group F is one of those cases where things could change in this last matchday. PSG plays against Dortmund, and if the leader keeps them at bay, then either Newcastle or Milan could make their way to the next stage with a victory in this next match.
It’s time to get into the details of this exciting match as we prepare to sit down and enjoy one last matchday on the UEFA Champions League Group Stage before moving on!
When:
Wednesday, November 13th, 3:00 PM ET at St. James’ Park
Moneyline odds:
Newcastle -115
AC Milan +285
Draw Offs:
+285
Where Can I Watch it?
CBS and Paramount+
Why Bet on Newcastle?
The great VAR debate reopened when Newcastle pitted their wits against French champions Paris Saint-Germain two weeks ago. An Alexander Isak strike in the first half had the Magpies on the verge of arguably their most famous continental triumph in history.
However, as the ball bounced off Tino Livramento’s thigh and onto his elbow in injury time, referee Szymon Marciniak saw fit to award PSG a last-gasp penalty. Kylian Mbappe converted to deny the Magpies all three points in the cruelest and most controversial circumstances.
It is not all doom and gloom for the third-placed hosts yet. Newcastle still possess the superior head-to-head tally against PSG, who are only two points better off. As such, victory on Wednesday, coupled with ‘Les Parisiens” failure to beat an already-qualified Borussia Dortmund, would send Eddie Howe’s team through.
Why Bet on Milan?
Working around an unenviable injury list has been nothing new for Milan head coach Stefano Pioli. However, the road to the last 16 is a little more complicated for the ‘Rossoneri,’ whose penultimate Group F clash at home to Borussia Dortmund was a chastening affair.
The German outfit sealed their place in the knockout rounds via a 3-1 success on the San Siro soil, three weeks after the Rossoneri had kept their dwindling hopes alive by beating PSG on home turf. As a result, they began the final matchday sitting at the bottom of the ‘group of death’ rankings.
Newcastle will go through with a win and a PSG draw, but Milan’s head-to-head goal tally is inferior to the French champions, so Pioli’s side must triumph at St James’ Park and hope that Dortmund defeats PSG if they are to sneak into the second last-16 spot.
Final Betting Analysis: Newcastle vs. Milan
Neck-and-neck in the Group F standings with five points to their name, the Magpies currently have the edge over the ‘Rossoneri’ on goal difference, considering that they played a 0-0 draw some weeks ago. However, both sides still need results elsewhere to go their way if they are to dine at Europe’s top table a little bit longer.
When the going gets tough at St James’ Park, Newcastle are almost always able to deliver, and facing a Milan side with only one fit central defender is what the doctor ordered for a decimated Magpies squad.
Milan will try to capitalize on their hosts’ perpetual injury woes to keep their last-16 hopes alive, and Newcastle’s last two Premier League results offer Pioli’s side reason for optimism. Notwithstanding, with the vibrant Tyneside troupe behind them, we can envisage the Magpies edging a thrilling contest before an anxious wait to learn their fate.
We expect a high-scoring match from two teams going all out, but the result should favor Newcastle with 3 points.
If you place $100 on Newcastle, you could get $86 for a total payout of $186.
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