Super Wild Card Weekend – Analysis & Free Picks

The NFL playoffs are finally here, and that means it’s time for some serious NFL betting.

The biggest games of the weekend are the six Wild Card matchups.

I’ve spent way too much time breaking down each NFL Playoffs Super Wild Card Weekend game to you a great set of free picks to help you make your wagers on this wild card round.

Let’s get into it!

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Schedule

Super Wild Weekend is taking on a slightly different format here are the 6 games happening Saturday, Sunday and Monday that will round out the NFL playoff picture.

With the addition of a Monday night game to the 2021 playoffs, Super Wild Card Weekend now has two Wild Card games on Saturday (4:30 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET), three on Sunday (1:00 p.m., 4:30 p.m., and 8:15 p.m. ET), and one on Monday (8:15 p.m. ET).

Updated Scores and Pick Results

Our Wild Card Weekend picks, with only the final game between the Cardinals and the Rams happening tonight, our picks came in at a healthy 7-3 win record. We did get tripped up a bit on total points, but overall our picks would have netted you a nice profit.

Saturday, Jan. 15

NFC: 4:30 p.m. (ET) No. 6 San Francisco 49ers at No. 3 Dallas Cowboys (CBS, Paramount+, Nickelodeon, Amazon Prime Video)

The 49ers easily covered the spead at +3 giving us a nice W, while our second 49ers vs Cowboys pick came up short. The Cowboys had more than one opportunity to win this game but sloppy penalties and rookie mistakes cost Dak Prescott and his Cowboys the game.

Record: 1-1

AFC: 4:30 p.m. (ET) No. 5 seed Las Vegas Raiders at No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals (NBC, Peacock, Universo)

The Bengals finally nabbed their first playoff win since 1990. It was a close one with 26-19 final score in favor of the Bengals. Our Moneyline pick on the Bengals came through with the W. Our total point UNDER pick at 49 also came through giving us a nice 2-0 record on this game.

Record: 2-0

AFC: 8:15 p.m. (ET) No. 6 New England Patriots at No. 3 Buffalo Bills (CBS, Paramount+)

The Bills showed up to play and the Bills Mafia were right there with them. The Pats looked flatter than a Tom Brady blown up football. The Bills stomped on the Pats 47-17 in an unexpected but entertaining route, after years of abuse by the Pats the Bills exacted some revenge on the storied franchise.

We had 2 picks from the Gambyl team on this one, the straight up Bills win on the Moneyline came through with a great profit margin. Our total points UNDER pick at 44 didn’t come through, but the Pats Defense needed to show up and they were nowhere to be found.

Record: 1-1

Sunday, Jan. 16

NFC: 1:00 p.m. (ET) No. 7 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX, FOX Deportes)

The Bucs easily handled the Eagles in a 31-15 route in this snoozefest of a WildCard game. Our straight up Moneyline pick on the Bucs wasn’t hugely profitable but with right number of units you could have found profitability. It’s also all about the small consistent wins. We did take an L on the 44 total point UNDER call.

Record: 1-1.

AFC: 8:15 p.m. (ET) No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (NBC, Peacock, Telemundo)

The Chiefs blew out the Steelers, 42-21. We took a W on our Chiefs Moneyline bet and a W on our 49 points total points OVER call. This was the final game for Big Ben Roethlisberger, the Chiefs move on to battle the Buffalo Bills January 23rd at 6:30pm at Arrowhead Stadium in KC.

Record: 2-0

Monday, Jan. 17

NFC: 8:15 p.m. (ET) No. 5 Arizona Cardinals at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (ESPN/ABC, ESPN2, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes)

The NFC’s top-seeded Green Bay Packers and the AFC’s top-seeded Tennessee Titans are on bye.

NFC: 4:30 p.m. (ET) No. 6 San Francisco 49ers at No. 3 Dallas Cowboys (CBS, Paramount+, Nickelodeon, Amazon Prime Video)


Let’s start with the game that’s getting the most action, 49ers-Cowboys. The Cowboys opened as a three-point favorite and the line has not moved since. However, there has been sharp money on both sides of this game. The sharps are betting on the Niners plus the points, while some smart money is on the Cowboys plus three. 

The Niners have lost just once since Week 11 (at Seattle). That one loss was by a mere six points, and they destroyed the Giants and Broncos in their two most recent games. Meanwhile, Dallas has feasted on weak competition to finish out its regular season schedule, but had some big problems against playoff-caliber teams. 

In terms of NFL betting trends, Dallas is a lousy home team with just one win in its last four games at Jerryworld (Packers and Eagles). Conversely, San Francisco has won three straight road playoff game by an average margin of 11 points per game. The Cowboys are 0-11 ATS the L11 years when favored by three or four points, while the Niners are a solid 11-12 ATS their L23 playoff games. 

In terms of NFL betting trends for individual players, Dak Prescott has been terrible on the road this season (65% completion rate and only six touchdowns compared to five interceptions). Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a game in which he completed 70% of his passes and threw for two touchdowns.

49ers at Cowboys Free Pick

All things considered, I believe the 49ers are a live underdog in this game. The sharps agree, and that’s why we’re seeing some good value on San Francisco at +3.

MyBookie.ag has the 49ers at +3 (-105) – I’m thinking the 49ers are going to upset the Cowboys and cover that spread.

You’ll get solid value with a $95.24 payout on a $100 wager.

AFC: 4:30 p.m. (ET) No. 5 seed Las Vegas Raiders at No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals (NBC, Peacock, Universo)

Despite losing by a field goal as seven-point favorites against the Chargers last Monday, the Raiders attracted plenty of action on Sunday when they were installed as three-point road dogs versus Cincinnati.

The sharps are all over Oakland plus the points. The most recent three trends on the side of Oakland include: 

The Raiders are a solid 13-15 ATS their L28 playoff games, while Cincy is just 18-25 ATS its last 43 home games. Teams in this series that have won 11+ regular season games verse teams with eight or fewer wins are a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1992. Oakland is also 15-18 ATS its last 33 road games, while Cincy is just 27-37 ATS in the friendly confines of Paul Brown Stadium over that same span (including 0-11 SU/ATS as home favorites).

The Bengals have been terrible this season, and their defense is ailing. The Raiders should have no trouble moving the ball through the air against Cincy’s crew. Meanwhile, Oakland’s improved running game will also aid in keeping drives alive (I expect many short passes to RB Jalen Richard).

According to the oddsmakers from online sportsbook 5Dimes, the sharps anticipate an easy Raider victory, while fans are eager to bet against Oakland after last Sunday’s defeat. As a live underdog in NFL betting, I’m definitely keeping an eye on this one.

Raiders at Bengals Pick:

Both teams are coming into this Wild Card matchup with a regular season 10-7 record. The difference here is the Raiders are coming in with 4 game win streak to round out the regular season.

While I’m looking for the Raiders to win this one, both teams have been wildly unpredictable all season long. Given this I’m going to protect my bankroll and play a safe Over on 49 total points.

Both teams offenses will be fired up, so I’m looking for a high scoring game that could go in either direction.

With 49 total points at -110 you’ll be getting another solid value wager taking home $90.91 on a $100 bet.

AFC: 8:15 p.m. (ET) No. 6 New England Patriots at No. 3 Buffalo Bills (CBS, Paramount+)


The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will renew hostilities in the AFC Wild Card Round after splitting their season series – thanks to Orchard Park’s wild winds in Week 13, which aided New England in grinding out a 14-10 win. Twenty days later, the Bills answered with a 33-21 win at Foxborough.

For some reason, bettors still can’t shake that Week 13 wind-altered result from their heads and with the forecast calling for dangerously cold temperatures on Saturday night, the mind drifts to the Under. But if you look at the totals set for the past two meetings between the Pats and Bills, we see openers in the 45 and 44.5-point range.

The Bills offense stumbled in the middle of the season, but it bounced back during Week 14 against Tampa Bay. Since then, this offense has ranked No. 7 in EPA per play (+0.115) and is getting solid production on both the ground and through the air.

The Bills have fallen behind rapidly in their past three losses, getting outscored by a combined 35-0 in the first quarter, and New England will come out swinging to set the tone for the Over on Saturday night. Buffalo has a 1Q advantage of 31-2 over its previous three games.

Pats at Bills Pick:

It’s going to be nasty cold this weekend for the Pats and Bills. While a ton of sharps are seeing a high scoring game and suggesting the over at 44 total point at -110, I can’t see that happening.

Extreme cold stunts offenses and I’m predicting the same thing for this game. It’ll be a low scoring grind fest just like their week 13 matchup.

Take the under and pocket yourself another $90.91 on your $100 investment.

NFC: 1:00 p.m. (ET) No. 7 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX, FOX Deportes)

On Sunday, the New York Giants will host the Carolina Panthers at MetLife Stadium in one of this season’s most highly anticipated games. The Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play a game with the largest line movement of the week. Following a win against the Carolina Panthers, the Buccaneers are 13-4 for their third consecutive winning season.

The Eagles must be concerned about the condition of running back Miles Sanders, who is questionable to play with a hand injury. The Buccaneers have several defensive concerns, including defensive end Jatavious Bryant and linebacker Lavonte David among them.

Looking at head-to-head matchups in recent history, the Bucs have the upper hand, going 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Other noteworthy developments include: The Eagles have been excellent on the road this season, going 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS. Despite last week’s loss, the Eagles have been playing outstanding football in the second half of the season, winning six of eight games. The Bucs have also done well in the second half, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. The Bucs were also lights out at home this season going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS.

Eagles at Bucs Pick:

The battered and bruised Eagles won’t be able to handle Tom Brady and the Bucs. Take the Moneyline at -390 if you’re looking for the safe bet.

Given those odds, you’ll need to throw down a cool $1000 to profit $256.41 with a total payout of $1,256.41

AFC: 8:15 p.m. (ET) No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (NBC, Peacock, Telemundo)

The Steelers’ luck, making it into the Wild Card Weekend, has been exceptional. The Steelers could be watching from the sofa this weekend if the Colts hadn’t choked against the lowly Jaguars in Week 18. Instead, they’ll travel to Foxborough to face arguably one of finest teams in AFC. As the seventh seed, it’s going to be a tough go for Pitt if they can win in Tennessee next weekend and travel to Buffalo or Cincinnati (most likely) afterward.

A win for the Chiefs guarantees them passage to the divisional round if the Bills triumph. If the Patriots beat the Bills, however, Kansas City would host either the Raiders or Bengals. KC will also host a conference championship game if Tennessee loses next weekend; if not, it will travel to Nashville.

The Chiefs the biggest favorite of the weekend for good reason.

Steelers at Chiefs Pick:

If you feel like gambling, you could make the argument that the Steelers can cover 13.5 points. I don’t find this likely but I’ve spoken to a few pro gramblers who see the Steelers staying within 10 points of the Chiefs.

Grab the spread bet on this one, and white knuckle it all the way through this game.

NFC: 8:15 p.m. (ET) No. 5 Arizona Cardinals at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (ESPN/ABC, ESPN2, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes)

Both of these clubs fell apart in the second half of the season and will now meet each other following both having a decent chance to finish second at various points during the year.

They have split the season series so far with both teams winning on the road, and the winner will head to Green Bay next weekend if the Bucs and Cowboys win.

If the Niners and Bucs win, the winner here heads to Tampa. And if both higher seeds lose, the winner of this game would host San Francisco.

Lots of different options on the table for these NFC West rivals.

Cardinals at Rams Pick:

Unless anything changes both of these teams are going to see an early playoff exit. The consensus out there is the Rams will trounce the Cardinals by up to 20 points. I’d take the Moneyline here on the Rams at -110 but a solid take is taking the Rams on the spread at -4.

Unless the bookies out there know something I don’t they’re calling this a close game, I’m calling this a blow out.

That’s my wrap on the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. Like my picks? Hate my picks? Let me know in the comments if you think I’ve lost my mind completely or if you like my picks.

Enjoy what’s going to be an amazing weekend of high intensity football!

Gambyl Nation Editorial Team

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