The NFL Super Wild Card Weekend games are set and the odds are live, NFL betting fans are getting ready to place their bets on what is going to be an insane weekend of football action. We’ve broken down each and every one of the games with the best bets available on the Gambyl Sports Betting Exchange.
Recommended Sports Betting Lines
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Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans
Date: Saturday, January 13, 2024
- Moneyline: Cleveland Browns -2 (-143), Houston Texans +2 (+134)
- Over: -108 at 44.5
- Under: -104 at 44.5
The Browns have flexed their muscles this season, beating powerhouse teams like the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens. However, the Texans, led by C.J. Stroud, have the potential to surprise us all.
The last few years, the Browns have had the Taxeans number, including a Week 16 36-22 beating. The Browns won an insane 10 straight games against AFC South opponents with Joe Flacco at the helm, while the Texans have a 6-2 record against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games when they’re the underdogs.
Momentum is a huge factor in the post-season and Joe Flacco has proven himself throughout the years in clutch NFL playoff games and thse two teams are dead even for spread bettors.
Just to mix up this breakdown, the Browns have a weaker away record (3-5), while the Texans have a stronger home record at 6-3, this could be a game changer since the game is being played in Houston.
The Browns have also won their last 4 straight games, coupled with the fact that statistically better teams usually win and cover the spread in the playoffs, make the Browns a strong bet for this game. The moneyline for backing the Browns is
This is a relatively safe bet given the Browns’ recent performance against the Texans, not to mention Joe Flacco. The Browns QB is the key to the post-season for the Browns. Flacco has proven over the years that he’s a cool under pressure and doesn’t get rattled like many QBs will in those post-season clutch moments.
Browns Texans Betting Pick: The Browns win this one on the moneyline and grab the over add to your bankroll.
Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs
Date: Saturday, January 13, 2024
- Moneyline: Miami Dolphins +174, Kansas City Chiefs -179
- Under: -102 at 44.5
- Over: -111 at 44.5
The Chiefs, led by two-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes, are the defending Super Bowl champions, but the Dolphins, led by the youngster Tua Tagovailoa, shouldn’t be underestimated.
Both teams have an 11-6 record for the season. The Chiefs have won three of their last four games, while the Dolphins are on a two-game losing streak. The teams met earlier in the season in Germany, with the Chiefs winning 21-14.
The Dolphins edged the Chiefs in yards per play 5.0 to 4.8 in that game. Injuries are beginning to pile up for the Dolphins, which could impact their performance.
Dolphins vs Chiefs Best Bet: If you’re looking for a bet with higher profitability, betting on the Dolphins moneyline is the way to go. I’ve worked it out to a 2.7% edge, even though the Chiefs are more likely to win this game .
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills
The Steelers are on a three-game winning streak and are possibly playing their best two-way football of the year. The Bills, however, are on the rise and could pose a significant challenge.
Date: Sunday, January 14, 2024
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers +460, Buffalo Bills -476
- Under: +102 at 36.5
- Over: -110 at 36.5
Let’s be honest, the the Steelers are going to have a rough go against the Bills who have won their last five games, while the Steelers have won their last three, not to mention that my feelow linesmakers all over the industry peg the Bills as heavy 10-point favorites. This game is going to be wild as the weather report for Sunday’s showdown doesn’t look amazing with below-freezing temperatures with gusts reaching up to 50 mph. This is going to be a running, heavily defensiev game and the Bills win in those conditions.
A spread bet might be order (or fill out your parlay) with a -9.5 in favor of the Bills, while the Steelers are at +10 with -110 odds.
Based on these factors, the best bet would be to take the Steelers with the points (+10) as even though I don’t think they’re going to win, I do think they’ll lose by fewer than 10 points. Let’s not forget that during his tenure in Pittsburgh, Mike Tomlin boasts an elite 57-31-3 ATS record (64.3%) as an underdog 3 .
Steelers Bills Best Bet: The Steelers lose this one but it’s a respectable loss against a tough Bills team surging at the right time on a nasty Sunday with nastier weather.
Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have been dominant at home this season, averaging an NFL-best 37.4 points per game, but don’t discount the Pack. They’ve shown resilience and could pose a significant challenge.
Date: Sunday, January 14, 2024
- Moneyline: Green Bay Packers +320, Dallas Cowboys -333
- Under: -102 at 51.5
- Over: -114 at 51.5
The Cowboys are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -7.5) and a total for this game is set at 50.5 points. The Packers have won six out of the 11 games, or 54.5%, in which they’ve been the underdog this season, but there are the intangibles always and the intangible is the Cowbioys sad history of choking under pressure. A reputation they’ve been fighting hard to shake off but just can’t seem to break through. In all honesty, I don’t see them breaking through this post-season either, but that doesn’t mean they won’t win this first round.
Green Bay owns a 4-1 record against Dallas in their last five matchups but, the Packers have only covered the spread once in their last five games against NFC opponents. The spread is -7.5 in favor of the Cowboys, while the Packers are at +7.5.
Risky Bet Alert Packers Cowboys Best Bet: I’m going with the Packers to upset the Cowboys. Take the Cheeseheads on the Moneyline and put 4 units down on the over if you’re looking to add value to your bets.
Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford, who played 12 seasons with the Lions, returns to play his first game in Detroit since joining the Rams in 2021. This game could be a high-scoring affair combined with a whole lot of emotion.
Date: Sunday, January 14, 2024
Moneyline: Los Angeles Rams +146, Detroit Lions -152
Under: -106 at 51.5
Over: 51.5 at -108
The Lions are favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). The predicted point total for the matchup is 51.5 . The Rams have a 10-6-1 record against the spread this year, and they are 4-3-1 ATS when underdogs by 3 points or more this season 4 . Meanwhile Detroit holds a 3-2 record against Los Angeles in their last five matchups 4 .
The Lions are favored by 3 points, and the total for the matchup is sitting at 51.5. The spread is -3 in favor of the Lions at various sportsbooks, while the Rams are at +3.
The Rams are 9-8 to the over and the Lions are 11-6 to the over 5 . My best bet on this game would be to take the Rams with the points (+3) as they are expected to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright. This is supported by the fact that the Rams have covered the spread in 4 out of 8 games when underdogs by 3 points or more 4 . For those looking for a bet with potentially higher profitability, betting on the Over 51.5 at -112, both the Rams and the Lions have gone over the total more times than not during the regular season, these boys have high powered offenses not matched up with strong defenses.
Lions Rams Best Bet: You won’t make a ton of money on this one but I’m playing it safe. Take the Lions on the Moneyline.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game has some serious shootout potential, both teams finished the year with bottom-four defenses, and the game could boil down to how well Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield play.
Date: Monday, January 15, 2024
- Moneyline: Philadelphia Eagles -147, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +144
- Under: -102 at 43.5
- Over: -109 at 43.5
Philly had a strong start to the season with a 10-1 record but have since famously faltered and lost six of their last seven games. On the other hand, the Buccaneers had a 4-7 record mid-season but finished strong with a 5-1 run. The Eagles are favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). The predicted point total for the matchup is 43.5.
The Eagles and Buccaneers have a rich shared playoff history with five previous meetings. The most recent was two years ago, in the opening round of the 2021 playoffs, where the Bucs won 31-15. However, the Eagles dominated their Week Three game this season, winning 25-11. The Eagles are favored by 3 points, and the total for the matchup is sitting at 43.5. The spread is -3 in favor of the Eagles at various sportsbooks, while the Buccaneers are at +3
For sports bettors, looking at the best bet types, the Eagles are 2-6-2 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games and haven’t covered in a single game since Week 11. The Buccaneers have the second-best ATS record in the regular season but ave covered in only three of eight games at home this season.
Grab the under on this game at 43.5 total points, both the Eagles and the Buccaneers have had games with lower total points throughout the regular season. Look for the Eagles defense to step it up and try to shut down the Bucs.
Eagles Bucs Best Bet: I’m taking the Eagles to rebound and not only cover the spread but to take the moneyline win as well.
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