Dolphins vs. Bills for TNF: Preview and Free Pick

After the first week of the NFL season, we are eager to see the upcoming encounter in the AFC East, as three of its four teams managed to start the season with victories.

This clash will be hosted by the Miami Dolphins, who kicked off their season with a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars and prepare to entertain their crowd at the Hard Rock Stadium once again.

The Buffalo Bills will be the team that comes to challenge the Dolphins in Miami, trying to build up the momentum they gained from their victory over the Cardinals at the Bills Stadium.

This divisional clash features two of the most consistent teams in the regular season in recent times, and we’re sure sparks will fly.

Why Bet on the Dolphins?

The Miami Dolphins beat the Jaguars for the opening week and look for a third straight 2-0 start to the season. It was 20-17 in Miami, in a game where they should have been down 7-24 in the third quarter, but Jaguars’ RB Travis Etienne fumbled on the goal line for a touchback. 

The Fins would hit an 80-yard home run touchdown to Tyreek Hill on the very first play of the ensuing possession — a strike that injected Hard Rock Stadium with a shot of adrenaline after an otherwise subdued effort from the home team.

Tua Tagovailoa got the upper hand in the QB’s duel, almost doubling Lawrence in completed passes and yards, with 23/338 against 12/162. However, both scored one touchdown.

Why Bet on the Bills?

The Buffalo Bills beat the Cardinals on the opening week and will look for their fourth 2-0 start in the last six years. However, they got a scare from the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, rallying back from a 17-3 hole to earn a 34-28 win in Orchard Park. 

The Cardinals’ 28 points don’t look great on this Buffalo defense, but half of those came due to weird circumstances, and this six-point game could have easily been a 34-17 victory for Bills Mafia. That would have this Week 2 spread looking very different.

Josh Allen was a force of nature with an impressive 18 passes completed from 23 attempted, in a game where Buffalo surpassed the Cardinals in all major statistics: passing yards, rushing yards, and yards per play.

Final Betting Analysis: Dolphins vs. Bills

The Bills and Dolphins needed to make big second-half comebacks in week 1 to avoid upset losses at home. They now gear up on short rest for a crucial early division game. The Bills are hard to pass up because they have won nine of the last ten games against the Dolphins, and most weren’t close. The 20-48 steamroll at the early stages of last season, when Miami was supposed to be the big deal while Buffalo was in low hours, is still in the memory.

With that said, the Dolphins are at home, where they have been great in recent years, and they’re 10-5 ATS in their last 15 home games as a favorite.

The Bills are still trying to figure things out offensively with so much lost production, and they’re 3-5 ATS in their last eight games as an away underdog.

The Dolphins have fewer questions roster-wise out of the gate, and not having to travel on short rest has its advantages. However, they seem to have a mental block against this division rival (and against almost every competent team in the NFL, but that is a history for another day), so we’ll go for a victory for the visitors by one TD.

Go for the Bills at 2.1. If you bet $100 at such odds, you could get $110 for a total payout of $210.

Be ready for the 2024 NFL football season with our NFL Betting Guide and follow every NFL football game with our printable NFL schedule; available for download as a spreadsheet, Google Sheet for the entire season or get every week from Week 1 through Week 18 with free picks.

Dolphins vs. Bills Betting Pick: Miami Dolphins