NBA Season 2023 2024 Preview

The NBA season is starting and we are getting ready to see everything unfold, as there are tons of excellent match-ups coming in from the very first day.

The outset of every NBA season presents us with a blank canvas: Every team sitting at an even 0-0 record, players’ point, rebound, and assist totals all sitting at zero, and a million questions all waiting to be answered. 

Though the East is as top-heavy as it gets, with two juggernauts towering above the rest, every team is coming into the year with something to prove.

Tomorrow was never promised to anyone, but that never meant NBA organizations ignored it. Now, long-term planning seems comatose. It’s all about the present, which doubles as a thrilling crapshoot.

To set the stage for this season, here are 10 increasingly bold predictions that may or may not become truth, but we are willing to put them out there so you can see where we are before things begin:

NBA Season 2023-2024 Preview: Predictions for this year

1: Nikola Jokic will win his third MVP in four years

The case here is easy. Jokic is (still) the best player alive, about to log huge minutes on a strong title contender with a young bench that’s still likely to crumble when he sits. Nobody makes their teammates better or is more efficient at a high volume.

Nobody more closely resembles a bored father breezing through his toddler’s pop-up book while reading complex defensive schemes. He’s a walking triple-double with a transcendent skill set, model temperament, and understated defensive chops that were on display throughout Denver’s run to the Finals.

2: The Warriors will have a positive net rating when Steph Curry rests

Since he was drafted, the only time Golden State outscored opponents with Curry on the bench was in 2018. The margin was plus -0.3 points per 100 possessions. That’s one out of 14 seasons!

Draymond Green’s injury puts this prediction behind the eight ball, but Steve Kerr should be able to find a balanced rotation once his roster is whole. When Curry rests, the Warriors have intriguing options.

Our hunch is these groups will discover their structure without losing some of the random qualities that make Curry’s minutes so lethal. 

Unlike last year, everyone on the Warriors appears to be rowing in the same direction. They’re a contender for a reason.

3: The Suns will unleash the most efficient offense of all time

This idea tracks closer to rational than hyperbole. The Suns have three bucket-hunting assassins on their roster, each as comfortable moving off the ball as they are effective with it.

When Kevin Durant and Devin Booker shared the court last season, Phoenix generated 121.7 points per 100 possessions in 180 minutes—most of them with Chris Paul on the court.

Now, Bradley Beal fills that role; any team that runs with someone who twice averaged more than 30 points per game as its third option should probably win the title.

The talent here, regardless of what speed they adopt, will shine. The shotmaking will be an eruption. Even teams that are smart enough to know what’s coming won’t be able to stop it.

That doesn’t mean the Suns are a lock to win it all (defense matters), but, for most teams on most nights, hoping they miss may be the only way to come out on top.

4: Jamal Murray will make his first All-NBA team

Anyone who witnessed Murray’s contributions during the Nuggets’ dominant championship run should see him as one of the six best guards in basketball.

Even before the Nuggets’ title, he was the league’s best player who’d never made an All-Star team; if he stays healthy enough to appear in 65 games, with more confidence than he’s ever had and a massive financial incentive spurring him on, Murray will solidify himself as one of the very best guards in the world.

5: The Bulls will host a playoff series

Philosophically, we still don’t like how myopic Chicago’s front office is. Its vision has a low ceiling, which is an injustice to fans who understand that this era is unlikely to end with a single playoff series victory. But that doesn’t mean this iteration of the Bulls won’t be competitive or even pretty good.

They enter this season as a fascinating test case for the value of continuity in a league full of change. Last year, they tied the Bucks and Pelicans for the second-most minutes rolled over from the previous year (a whopping 87 percent). This year, pretty much every integral member is back: Chicago re-signed Nikola Vucevic, Ayo Dosunmu, and Coby White, while Zach LaVine and/or DeMar DeRozan have somehow not been traded

When you separate big-picture nausea from the actual roster Billy Donovan will coach, what’s there is OK! The Bulls have a bunch of good players who make sense next to each other! Their best five—Alex Caruso, DeRozan, LaVine, Patrick Williams, and Vucevic—outscored opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions in 200 minutes last year. 

6: Victor Wembanyama will win Defensive Player of the Year

In Wembanyama’s very first preseason game, Gregg Popovich told his 19-year-old prospect everything to guard Thunder wing Jalen Williams, an experimental gambit that required only a few moments of acclimatization before it became one of the more terrifying developments in recent NBA history.

A few minutes into the game, Wembanyama found himself backpedaling in transition as Williams came at him. The shifty 6-foot-5 sophomore drove right off a Lu Dort screen and then crossed over behind his back, spinning Wembanyama the wrong way and seemingly removing him from the play. But as Williams drove middle for what would 99 percent of the time be an uncontested left-handed layup, Wembanyama showed why he is the 1 percent everybody in the NBA needs to worry about.

The league’s new player participation policy may create a roadblock for Wemby to win Defensive Player of the Year. Voters will also hesitate to congratulate a rookie on (what will probably be) a losing team. But Victor’s impact should be immediately massive in ways no other player can duplicate.

7: Zion Williamson will finish top 10 in assists

Zion is healthy, which means he’s unguardable. But knowing he’ll have an opportunity to play at the 5 in a spaced-out floor against defenses that will throw the kitchen sink at him to protect the paint, Williamson should be able to pick opponents apart another way. Lost in the turbulence of Zion’s first few years as a tantalizing NBA star is just how awesome he is at passing the ball.

Before last season was cut short, he averaged 4.6 assists per game and was in the 96th percentile for assist rate at his position. Those numbers could be jolted in James Borrego’s system. It’s Williamson’s most understated skill, and when surrounded by capable outside shooters and active motion, whatever offense he’s steering is impossible to stop.

8: The Nets will have the best defense in the NBA

With a full understanding that great team defense needs more than just a collection of great individual defenders, here’s my argument: Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton, and Ben Simmons.

Does any other organization claim three players who’ve all heard their name in a recent Defensive Player of the Year conversation? Now add Dorian Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neale, and Cam Johnson. That’s over half of Brooklyn’s rotation!

9: The Clippers will make the Finals

Our belief in Kawhi Leonard is so firm, that it makes cement feel like a plum. Paul George is still a premier all-around player, and there aren’t five head coaches more bold or resourceful than Ty Lue.

Regardless of what changes the Clippers make, the fact that they still have two future first-round picks and some sizable expiring contracts to attach them to is major. Even if they’re in first place before the trade deadline, the ability to upgrade matters.

A Clippers campaign that begins with everyone healthy, motivated, and feeling just enough pressure to take the regular season seriously is cause for optimism. Leonard, George, and Lue are all working on contract extensions. The league’s desire to keep its stars on the court can only help this organization. They have enough talent, experience, and skill to win it all.

10: The Sixers and Heat will make a trade that changes everything

Miami gets: Joel Embiid; Philadelphia gets: Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, two unprotected first-round picks, and a future pick swap

To be clear, this trade won’t go down before another taste of postseason disappointment. It won’t happen unless the Heat feel stuck and Embiid’s patience with Philly runs out. But under those circumstances, it’s easy to see how this makes sense for both sides.

For Miami, the rationale is obvious, albeit extremely painful. Adebayo might be the best defensive player on the planet. He is only 26 years old and plays with no ego and priceless intensity. In the oft-frenzied conditions of NBA life, this dude is not about the bullshit.

Embiid just so happens to be one of the two or three players the Heat would even consider moving him for. It’s an irresistible upgrade that would thrill Jimmy Butler and devastate a league that prefers a world where Embiid languishes in dysfunction. Imagine what he’d be under Erik Spoelstra, in a no-nonsense, no-excuses environment.

If Embiid demands a trade, what offer would be better than this one? Some teams can package more picks and younger building blocks, but assuming the Sixers want to stay competitive and not backslide into the lottery, nothing realistic comes close to Miami’s best offer. It would let them build around Adebayo, Tyrese Maxey, Robinson, max cap space, and four tradable first-round picks. That’s a pretty great place to be!