We are entering the 2nd leg of the Clausura MX 2024 semifinals, and both matches were marked by a severe lack of goals and clear scoring opportunities. The teams were more worried to evade a slip than to define the series early, and only one goal was scored between the two games.
Our current focus is, precisely, on the semifinal in which one team has an advantage. The second leg will be on Sunday and pits Cruz Azul and Monterrey at the Ciudad de los Deportes Stadium, after their first encounter ended up 0-1 thanks to a goal by Carlos Rotondi for La Maquina.
One team was a clear favorite at the beginning of the season, while the other has been one of the surprises of this Liga MX season. However, it’s the latter that comes with the upper hand and will define at home.
When:Â
Sunday, May 19, 8:00 pm ET at the Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes
Moneyline odds:Â
Cruz Azul 2.54
Monterrey 2.61
Draw Offs:Â
3.42
Where can I watch it?Â
TUDN USA
Why Bet on Cruz Azul?
Cruz Azul scored a single goal somewhat early in the first match. They had only 41% possession but managed to keep Monterrey at bay to maintain this lead towards the 2nd match. Now they will be playing as hosts so it is likely they will try to do the same to achieve these results.
La Maquina comes from also taking advantage as visitors in their previous series. That time, it was 0-2 against Pumas, and they advanced with a 4-2 aggregate score. The issue is that they suffered a lot in the second leg, even if it was at home. They should have lost that game except for a late goal by Faraveli, and if they approach this game with the same attitude, they’ll have a hard time against a team as aggressive as Monterrey.
Cruz Azul cleaned its image as a club accustomed to doing bottle jobs following its success in the Clausura 2021. Indeed, they have failed to build on that, having some of their worst campaigns in recent memory since that title, but they are still a team accustomed to being champions.Â
Why Bet on Monterrey?
Monterrey managed to get more chances to attack during the first leg, getting eighth corners through the match and having the most possession of the ball. However, they only had three shots on target.
Rayados needs to push Cruz Azul’s limits like Pumas did days ago. They have the tools and the approach to do so but must be careful, as they face an extremely dangerous rival in terms of counterattacking.
Even as visitors, the odds do them some favor, so it’s clear that the team keeps being a strong candidate even with the score against them. They already know what it means to win as visitors in this Liguilla, beating Tigres 1-2. However, that same result won’t be of use, considering that, as said many times before, a draw in the aggregate score would take them out, considering Cruz Azul was higher in the regular season table (second).
Final Betting Analysis:Â Cruz Azul vs. Monterrey
Tano Ortiz, the young DT from Monterrey, has a date with history and, more importantly, against himself. The Argentinian has a short story in Mexico, but since having the reign of América in 2022, he has reached a whooping six semifinals (counting this one), losing all the previous ones.
Now, this is a clash between Tano’s personal “curse,” if you believe in that kind of thing, and Cruz Azul’s capability to keep consistency in their results, and avoiding a “Cruz-Azuleada,” which has haunted them on the late stages of the Liguilla before.
From January 2022 to the same month in 2023, Rayados had a period of paternity over Cruz Azul, avoiding the loss in five matches (three wins). However, since then, there have been two wins in a row for La Maquina.
We expect this match to be pretty exciting and contested, but in the end, it will be a 1-1 draw that will take Cruz Azul to the final.
Go for a draw at 3.42. If you bet $100 at such odds, you could get $242 for a total payout of $342.
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