Three underdogs pulled off a surprise in the six games of last week’s Super Wild Card Weekend. We’re entering the Divisional Round and that means we’re only six games away from finding out which teams will face each other in Super Bowl LIX.

Texans, Commanders, Rams and Bills are this week’s underdogs and at Gambyl we tell you why it’s a good idea to trust them, even if the spread says otherwise.

Texans (+8 vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Against the spread: Texans 8-8-2; Chiefs 8-9.

It’s true that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are practically unbeatable at Arrowhead, but the Texans might have just what it takes to knock off the champions:

1. The defensive end duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter might be too much for Kansas City’s offensive tackles. Anderson had 12.5 sacks and Hunter added 12. Joe Thuney could start Saturday at left tackle for the Chiefs, and on the right side is Jawaan Taylor, tied for second in the league with 17 penalties.
2. Derek Stingley is an All-Pro cornerback who had two interceptions, five passes defensed and forced a fumble last week against the Chargers. If Stingley — who was second in the NFL with 18 passes defensed in the regular season — consistently wins matchups against rookie Xavier Worthy (59 receptions, 638 yards and six touchdowns) and DeAndre Hopkins (41-437-4), Houston’s defense can focus on tight end Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes could have a frustrating afternoon at Arrowhead.
3. C.J. Stroud needs one of his best games against Kansas City’s stout defense, but there are two other Texans players who could be key in this matchup. Houston must run the ball, and Joe Mixon, who had 106 yards and a touchdown last week and has 701 combined yards in eight playoff games, will be key to that. When he’s forced to throw, Stroud will need receiver Nico Collins to step up. He had 122 yards and a score against the Chargers and has at least five receptions in each of his three playoff games and a touchdown in two of them. In Week 16 against Kansas City, Collins had 10 targets, seven receptions and 60 yards; on Saturday, the Texans need more than that to beat the Chiefs.

Commanders (+9.5 vs. Detroit Lions)

Against the spread: Commanders 11-6-1; Lions 12-5

Few believe Washington can beat the NFC’s best team in its home stadium, but rookie Jayden Daniels does not believe in history or spreads and is ready to spring another upset in his incredible first NFL season.

1. Daniels’ ability to run the ball will be key in this game. The Commanders must keep the Lions’ offense on the sidelines, and to do so they’ll need long, scoring drives. Last week in Tampa, Daniels completed 24 of 35 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns, but he also ran 13 times for 36 yards. Washington is going to need all the rushing yards it can get, and the rookie can be a good provider of them.
2. Veteran Marshon Lattimore and rookie Mike Sainristil did a decent job last week against receiver Mike Evans, and it won’t be easy against Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams this Saturday, either. Sainristil, who led all rookie cornerbacks with 14 passes defensed, could make the big play if Jared Goff chooses not to challenge Lattimore.
3. The Commanders’ run defense (137.5 rushing yards per game) must step up if Washington is to win in Detroit. The Lions will challenge that front seven with their outstanding running back duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who averaged

138.5 rushing yards during the regular season. Washington allowed 101 yards on the ground in last week’s win at Tampa Bay.

Rams (+6.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Against the spread: Los Angeles 10-8; Philadelphia 12-6

Behind a huge defensive effort, the Rams dominated and defeated the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night and are considered underdogs for the second week in a row, a situation that only motivates coach Sean McVay’s team more.

1. In Week 12, Philadelphia defeated the Rams 37-20 behind a spectacular performance by Saquon Barkley, who set an Eagles record with 255 rushing yards, including touchdown runs of 70 and 72 yards. The Rams’ defense can’t afford to allow that again and must avoid another big game from Barkley at all costs. The Vikings only gained 106 yards on the ground on Monday, with Aaron Jones leading the way with just 48 yards. Saquon is a different animal, but if the Los Angeles defense can contain him…
2. Just like they did with Sam Darnold, the Rams must go into “attack mode” against Jalen Hurts. Los Angeles sacked Darnold nine times, including two by Kobie Turner, and Neville Gallimore and Byron Young finished with 1.5 apiece. Plus, the Rams held star receiver Justin Jefferson without a single pass caught in the second half of the game in Glendale. Containing Barkley is essential for this part of the game plan to make sense and work.
3. Matthew Stafford’s experience could be the difference in this game. The 16-year veteran completed his first 10 passes and finished with 209 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns against Minnesota. The Eagles boast the league’s best defense, but Stafford is 5-1 in the playoffs with the Rams and has a pair of receivers (Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp) that will demand the best effort from Philadelphia’s perimeter.

Bills (+1 vs. Baltimore Ravens)

Against the spread: Ravens 11-6-1; Bills 11-7.

Although the Bills haven’t lost a home game this season (including playoffs), they are considered underdogs against the Ravens, largely because of their regular-season record, when Baltimore beat Buffalo 35-10 in Week 4. Sunday’s game, however, could be very different.

1. In that game in late September, Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards, including an 87-yard touchdown early in the game. Of course, to beat the Ravens, the first thing you have to do is stop Henry. Few remember that in that game, the Bills’ defense was without three starters (linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and cornerback Taron Johnson), while safety Taylor Rapp was sidelined in the first quarter with a concussion. All four will play Sunday, and all will be needed to contain Henry on first and second downs.
2. The Bills’ best defense may be their offense. The running game, to be precise. Against Denver last week, James Cook ran for 120 yards, the most by a Bills player in the postseason since Thurman Thomas had 158 in 1995 against Miami. Buffalo, which generated 210 yards on the ground, controlled the ball for 41:43, and that should be coach Sean McDermott’s wish for Sunday. Any rushing yards from quarterback Josh Allen will be welcome.
3. The McDermott-Allen duo is synonymous with success. The Bills are 6-2 at home in the playoffs under McDermott and 14-2 in games where temperatures are below freezing. Early forecasts for Sunday project a high of minus 5 degrees Celsius and a low of minus

13. Allen, meanwhile, has thrown 12 touchdown passes and rushed for seven more in the past six games he started and finished.

Top picks for the Divisional Round:

Divisional Round Specials:

Texans vs. Chiefs

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) Over 60 Receiving Yards

Commanders vs. Lions

Jayden Daniels (Commanders) Over 234.5 Passing Yards

Rams vs. Eagles

Saquon Barkley (Eagles) Under 111.5 Rushing Yards

Ravens vs. Bills

Derrick Henry (Ravens) Under 97.5 Rushing Yards