This 16th round of the Brasileirão brings us a good match between two great teams with very different realities, Atlético Mineiro and São Paulo.
The Galo is coming from two defeats in a row, the last one by 3-0 against Botafogo, and is getting closer to the relegation places.
On the other hand, the Paulistas recovered their form and have now won four consecutive matches, moving into the Copa Libertadores spots.
When and Where?
Thursday, July 11, 8:30 pm ET at Arena MRV
Moneyline odds:
Atlético Mineiro 2.315
São Paulo 3.28
Draw Offs:
3.152
Where can I watch it?
Premiere, Star+, Paramount+, and Vix
Why Bet on Atlético Mineiro?
Atlético Mineiro did not expect to be in 12th place almost halfway through the championship. The team from Belo Horizonte is going through a bad moment that has it far from the leading positions.
At the weekend, they lost 3-0 to Botafogo and have now been beaten twice in a row, conceding seven goals, as they lost 2-4 at home to Flamengo. In addition, they have gone three games without a victory and have only obtained five points out of the last 21 in dispute.
In total, the Galo has four wins, the same number of defeats, and six draws, having scored 20 goals and conceded 23. These are poor numbers for the Argentine coach, Gabriel Milito, in his first season at the club.
On top of that, they are one of the worst home sides in the tournament, with one win, four draws, and two defeats. Only Cuiabá (6) and Atlético Goianiense (2) have fewer points at home. They have five matches without a win at the MRV Arena.
Milito will have Rômulo and Guilherme Arana back for this game, but he still has several important absentees, such as Everson, Renzo Saravia, Mariano, Igor Rabello, Maurício Lemos, Rubens, Matías Zaracho, Alisson. It is undoubtedly a very dark outlook for the club.
Why Bet on São Paulo?
São Paulo is living its best moment of the season and does not want to cut it short. They have just beaten Red Bull Bragantino 2-0 and already have four wins in a row, achieving something they have not done since December 2020.
With 27 points, they are fourth in the tournament, only four points behind leaders Flamengo. In addition, their 24 goals scored make them the third-best attack in the Brasileirão, behind only Flamengo (27) and Botafogo (26). Luciano is the team’s top scorer with six goals and has scored in three consecutive matches.
They have also done very well on the road, with three wins, two draws, and two defeats, having won their last away match against Athletico Paranaense (1-2).
But if things are going badly for Gabriel Milito in relation to injuries and suspensions, for his compatriot Luis Zubeldía, the opposite is true. On the one hand, the coach returns after being sent off against Athletico Paranaense. On the other hand, Jonathan Calleri and Ferreira, who were suspended, also returned. Goalkeeper Rafael (Brazil) and defender Nahuel Ferraresi (Venezuela) return from the Copa América, so the only absentees are James Rodríguez (Colombia National Team) and Michel Araújo (injured).
Final Betting Analysis: Atlético Mineiro vs. São Paulo
The last time these two teams met was on December 2 last year and Atlético Minero won 2-1. The Galo has two wins in a row and a six-game unbeaten streak against São Paulo. The last time the Tricolor won was on December 16, 2020, while as an away team, they have not won since 2016.
The numbers at Gambyl Exchange have Atlético Mineiro as the favorite. Their Moneyline shows 2.4, São Paulo has 2.9, and the draw is at 3.2.
They are two great teams, but São Paulo’s current form shows signs of a team finally finding the light after many obscure years in the Brasileirão. Although their numbers against Mineiro are not positive in recent times, they will hit the table with an away win to break the negative streak. We’ll go for a 0-2.
Go for a win for São Paulo. If you bet $100 at 2.9, you will gain $190 for a total payout of $290.
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