The heavyweight boxing division has undergone a shake-up in recent months, with several top contenders suffering unexpected defeats. One of the most shocking was undefeated Arslanbek Makhmudov’s loss to Agit Kabayel last December.Â
Coming into that fight, Makhmudov was seen as a rising force in the division. With his intimidating size and power, the Russian-Canadian fighter had knocked out 17 of his 18 opponents. However, Kabayel was able to withstand Makhmudov’s early aggression and take control of the fight, scoring three knockdowns before finishing Makhmudov in the fourth round.
Makhmudov now finds himself needing to rebuild his status in the heavyweight ranks. His first opportunity comes on May 25, when he takes on New Zealand’s Junior Fa. While not as highly touted as Makhmudov, Fa has been up against elite competition, including a competitive loss to Joseph Parker.Â
This fight will be pivotal at this point in both fighters’ careers. A win could put them back in contention for big opportunities in the heavyweight landscape. But a loss could derail their hopes of competing against the best names in the weight class again.
When and Where?
Saturday, May 25, 9:00 pm ET at the Centre Gervais Auto in Quebec, Canada
Ring Walks time:
TBA
Moneyline odds:
Arslanbek Makhmudov 1.042Â
Junior Fa 11.10
Where can I watch it?
DAZN and Sky Sports
Why Bet on Arslanbek Makhmudov?
Arslanbek Makhmudov entered his fight against Agit Kabayel with an impressive professional record of 18-0 with 17 knockouts. The Russian-Canadian heavyweight had quickly developed a reputation as an intimidating puncher, earning knockout victories in all but one of his professional fights.
Makhmudov turned pro in 2017 and steadily racked up wins, displaying devastating power that few opponents could withstand. In just his fifth professional fight, he claimed the WBC United States heavyweight title with a first-round knockout.
Over the next two years, Makhmudov continued his knockout streak, scoring first or second-round KOs in most of his bouts. This streak included impressive wins over veterans such as Mariusz Wach and Pavel Sour, both of whom Makhmudov dominated before finishing in the second round.
Riding the momentum of 17 consecutive knockout victories, Makhmudov entered his fight with Kabayel as an undefeated rising contender in the heavyweight division. However, his streak came to a shocking halt when he suffered the first loss of his career by technical knockout in the fourth round.
Why Bet on Junior Fa?
Junior Fa entered the professional boxing scene in 2016 and has compiled a record of 20 wins against three losses. The Auckland, New Zealand native won his first19 fights before suffering his first loss in 2021 against Joseph Parker.Â
In 2018, Fa got his first major regional title shot when he faced Luis Pascual for the WBO Oriental Heavyweight title. Fa won by unanimous decision after ten rounds. He then had four straight wins before facing Joseph Parker in 2021. Parker handed Fa a decision loss. Then, in June 2022, Fa faced Lucas Browne, being annihilated in the first round with a terrible TKO.
Despite the setbacks, Fa has continued to face top competition. He defeated Tussi Asafo in October 2022 by a first-round KO, but fell to Frank Sanchez at the Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, last December 23, 2023, by seventh-round TKO.
Throughout his career, Fa has been a heavyweight willing to take on any opponent. Even with three losses, he has gone toe to toe with some of the best in the division, such as Parker, Sanchez, and Browne. His experience against top fighters makes him a good test for Makhmudov as they both try to work their way back into title contention.
Final Betting Analysis:Â Arslanbek Makhmudov vs. Junior Fa
For Makhmudov, the key will be to rediscover the aggressive style that brought him so much success in the past. He needs to use his size and power to bully Fa, get inside, and unload heavy combinations. The Russian has monstrous power in his hands, but he cannot become reckless and leave himself open defensively. If he fights smart, uses his jab, and doesn’t get discouraged, Makhmudov should be able to overwhelm Fa eventually.
Fa’s path to victory relies on using his boxing skills to avoid Makhmudov’s power. He is the faster, more athletic fighter and will need to use movement and angles to compensate for his opponent’s size. That is, if he can frustrate Makhmudov by making him miss, it could lead to the Russian making mistakes that the New Zealander can capitalize on.
In the end, Makhmudov’s power and hunger for redemption make him a wise choice here. Coming off the first loss of his career, expect the Russian to come out aggressive and look for the knockout early, which he will find before the fifth round.
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