World Cup Upsets Superthread

If there is something that characterizes a World Cup more than a party, excitement and worldwide attention is competitiveness, and competitiveness brings with it surprises, a lot of them. This World Cup has already brought us two massive upsets in just 4 days of the championship, so we are excited to see what’s yet to come.

It is the dream of any bettor that has an insightful eye, and a nightmare for those that always go for the secure, but, undoubtedly, in the entertainment department, no sporting event comes even close. To that, we have to add that this atypical World Cup comes in the winter months, in a different context than all the others before. That’s the magic of Qatar, for good or bad.

Now, before starting the analysis, let’s remember that, for a result to be considered an upset, there should be a massive difference, not only in the Odds pointed out by bookmakers, but also in terms of history and sporting capacity. So, Ecuador’s victory over the host doesn’t enter this category quite that much, although we massively respect the South American team’s heroics.

World Cup Qatar 2022 – Most Impressive results and Upsets – Arabia Saudi 2 – 1 Argentina

When:

Tuesday, November 22 at 5:00 AM at the Lusail Stadium

Betting Odds:

Argentina -724

Saudi Arabia +2100

Draw Offs:

+690

The national team from the Arabic Peninsula shocked the world this Tuesday, November 22, as in the first game of the day they pulled a massive comeback against Messi’s Argentina, in a game when the South American Astro scored.

The match started as expected, with the Albiceleste dominating the game and constantly entering the Saudi area, although without much effectiveness. However, in a set piece for the Argentines, a little pull in the area by the defender was deemed enough by the VAR to sanction a Penalty, which Messi converted.

The first half was a sea of outside plays by Argentina, one for Leo and the other two from Lautaro Martinez, as the South Americans were effective in their attack plays, but lacked the concentration to finish them properly.

Just as the old saying says, if you don’t give you receive, and the Argentines received two hooks to the liver in just over five minutes. First, a great run in the flank by Saleh Al-Shehri was finished off by himself beating Dibu Martinez on his far post.

Later, Salem Al-Dawsari dribbled inside the area and put an impressive ball inside the Argentines’ net, which shut down immediately the South Americans in the stands, that couldn’t believe the Arabic heroics. Argentine tried to recover from the hit, but their best chances were stopped by the Saudi goalkeeper who was enormous.

World Cup Qatar 2022 – Most Impressive results and Upsets – Japan 2 – 1 Germany

When:

Wednesday, November 23 at 8:00 AM ET in the International Stadium Jalifa

Betting Odds:

Germany: -222

Japan: +675

Draw Offs:

+300

The Asian nations started slow on this world cup, first, the host was the first ever home nation to lose the inaugural match, then Iran (one of the strongest Asian nations on paper) received a massive beating by England. However, Saudi Arabia decided to ruin the Argentine’s party, and, just minutes ago, Japan gave Germany yet another World Cup upset, after their disaster in 2018.

Just as in the previous match, it started as expected, and as it started it ended. We could say both games mirrored each other in many aspects. However, one of the differences was that Japan’s goalkeeper was enormous from the first minute, being one of the figures of the match, although he got a little over-excited in the play that ended up in Germany’s penalty, which Gundogan converted with class.

Another difference is that Germany’s dominance extended towards the beginning of the second half, but, in a counterattack, a great long cross to the area ended up in a shot that Neuer stopped, but giving a central rebound that Ritsu Doan didn’t forgive. Later, with the Teutons on the attack, a great run by Asano ended up in a powerful shot that burned the German’s net.

We could say that this was a little payback the Europeans receive, as the Bundesliga compensate for its lack of resources in front of other leagues by picking players in exotic markets, and Japan is one of their favorite hunting grounds. As we mentioned in our Group Preview, the Asian team has a spine composed of current and former Bundesliga players, and they used their experience to good profit.

World Cup Qatar 2022 – Most Impressive results and Upsets – Morocco 2 – 0 Belgium

Morocco gave Belgium a massive blow in the Europeans’ search for their first major title. Yes, the Red Devils were giving many doubts, especially after their pre-world cup friendlies and their suffered victory against Canada. However, nobody expected this kind of breakdown so soon.

The game was tight and even for most of it, with few and scarce goal chances for every team. But Belgium’s defense give up again and this time Courtois was not enough, we could even say that he had responsibility for the first goal of the game by Roman Saiss. It wasn’t until Zakharia Aboukhalal sealed the encounter against a pushed European side that everything crumbled.

After the game, there were controversial declarations from side to side. De Bruyne criticized the lack of generational change in the squad, while Jan Vertonghen said that the attack is at fault for the team’s problems. It was later known that there is a massive breakout in the squad, with many players having important personal disputes and that things are looking bad for Roberto Martinez.

Morocco, meanwhile, has a great generation of players in important European teams and wants to be the dark horse nobody expected.

World Cup Qatar 2022 – Most Impressive results and Upsets – Tunisia 1 – 0 France

When: 

Wednesday, November 30th at 9:00 am ET at the Education City Stadium

Moneyline odds:

Tunisia +510

France -173

Draw-Offs:

+295

According to many, including us, group D was one of the most predictable of this World Cup. First France, Second Denmark, and the two weakest nations will fight for third place, right?

Far from reality, it ended up being one of the groups with the most surprises and now we must highly Tunisia’s impressive and hard-fought victory over France, one that should have given them the ticket to the round of sixteen, but it ended up being just a consolation prize as the other game of the group was almost as impressive in its result.

We must highlight a couple of things. First, France was already qualified, with the first-place guarantee, and put on the field a pretty weird alternative squad, that neither on paper nor the ground made much sense. However, the players on the field were still miles away from a Tunez that came as an underdog to the World Cup, managing to qualify with a squad full of unknown players and with Wahbi Khazri as their figure (an attacking midfielder best remembered as a Sunderland AFC flop and for a couple of good seasons in France).

Precisely, Khazri was the one in charge of surprising France at the 58 minutes, obligating the Gales to put heavy artillery on the field to prevent a humiliating result. However, it wasn’t enough to break the North African resilience. With this result, Tunisia leaves the World Cup holding their heads high.

World Cup Qatar 2022 – Most Impressive results and Upsets – Japan 2 – 1 Spain

When:

Thursday, December 1 at 2:00 pm ET at the Khalifa International stadium

Moneyline odds:

Japan +764 

Spain -253

Draw Offs:

+378

Who would have said, that Japan will appear here again? The Nippon team started the World Cup by giving a heavy blow to a favorite. Then after a terrible loss to a weak Costa Rica we all thought: it was just luck and the magic dried out. However, far from reality.
Now is even harder to explain that loss to the Centroamericans, maybe the Asians were over-confident after their achievements.
The point is that in a practically equal manner to the first game of the group, Japan gave a lesson of humbleness to Spain and almost takes them out of the World Cup (as the Costa Ricans were giving their own surprise on the other match of the group for a moment).
After Morata’s goal and the dominance of the Iberians, everything seemed sealed and done, but in a spark of brightness, Ritsu Dõan got the drawing goal, and shortly after a play by himself ended up in a discussed goal by Ao Tanaka.
Just as a colorful tip, Spain lost a match where they had 83% of possession and made more than 1000 passes (four times the passes the Japanese gave).

World Cup Qatar 2022 – Most Impressive results and Upsets – South Korea 2 – 1 Portugal

When:

Friday, December 2 at 10:00 pm ET at the Education City Stadium

Moneyline odds:

Portugal -143 

South Korea +379

Draw Offs:

+305

When we started this thread we believed that it would be a testimonial with just a couple of inclusions, mostly regarding the World Cup disappointments (as there always are one or two). Far from the case, as counting this entry and the category below we account for 8 (for the moment), and at this very moment, the group phase hasn’t even ended. We must highlight the resilience of the big underdogs in this tournament.

Back to the point, Portugal and South Korea were expected to have a tight match, as the Europeans were already qualified and the Asians were desperate and with a knife in their teeth. It was in the first half, although the Lusitanos looked better with a rotated squad that still kept a good amount of World Class talent.

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We should mention Portugal tried to win the match by putting some heavy artillery on the field. However, in the end, it was just naivety, as they didn’t focus on defending against a needy squad that had Son Heung Min on the attack. Precisely, in a counterattack after a set piece the Spurs’ attacker run all the field and set an excellent pass at the dispense of a Joao Palinha that should have made a tactical foul. The Wolverhampton Wanderers attacker that entered the field in the second half, Hwang Hee-Chan, appeared in the space between the center-halves and defined with precision to put the Koreans in the stands in tears, in images that will go around the world.

In the other game, there was a crude battle between two bitter rivals: Uruguay and Ghana. The Uruguayans were superior, but the Ghanaians achieved their last objective: taking revenge on the Charruas by leaving them out of the World Cup, by not allowing more than 2 goals.

World Cup Qatar 2022 – Most Impressive results and Upsets – Cameroon 1 – 0 Brazil

When: 

Friday, December 2 at 02:00 pm ET at the Lusail Stadium

Moneyline odds: 

Cameroon +1050 

Brazil -390

Draw-Offs: 

+500

Yet another surprise at the end of the group phase of this World Cup and the list keeps growing. This time the protagonist was an African nation as Cameroon was fighting until the end for its qualification, but this massive result was not enough.

Brazil, already qualified, entered the field with a pretty strong squad, including the likes of Ederson, Militão, Fabinho, and others. They were pretty aggressive but the Cameroonians resisted until the very end. And on that very end, Aboubakar put the ball in the net and ignited the celebration for the Africans, although short-lived, as the result in the other match leaves them without a chance of qualifying. Yet another humble nation that will leave this tournament with its head held up high.

World Cup Qatar 2022 – Most Impressive results and Upsets – Morocco 0 (3) – (0) 0 Spain

When:

Tuesday, December 6 at 10:00 am ET at the Education City Stadium

Moneyline odds:

Morocco +550 

Spain -177

Draw Offs:

+290

When you have so much time talking about bets you develop a kind of sixth sense. It’s not always precise but, sometimes, it led you to impressive predictions. This time we went with Morocco for the upset and we go it right although not quite well, as the game went on to penalties, so it is a draw technically and from a betting perspective. However, let us enjoy it a little.

Luis Enrique’s Spain showed the same symptoms that we have all pointed out: a lot of pointless possession without a punch on the attack. They had the ball for much of the game without doing anything with it and didn’t get preoccupied about seriously reaching Morocco’s goal until there were just 20 minutes left, so the clock became their enemy.

Also, Morocco had a fair amount of chances as well in the counter, as Sergio Busquets was completely annulated by the North African approach so the midfield was a freeway.

When the time of the penalties came on, the ghosts of the surprising elimination in front of Russia came to the players’ minds, and the Spanish were horrible, especially Carlos Soler, as the PSG’s player kicked as if it wasn’t his problem. To roundup Busquets’ night, he got his shot stopped by a giant Bono before Hakimi converted the winning penalty.

Now Luis Enrique doesn’t have results on his back for his criticized approach, and the future of the Spanish National Team is in the air with two consecutive eliminations in the round of 16 of a World Cup.

World Cup Qatar 2022 – Most Impressive results and Upsets – Morocco 1 – 0 Portugal

When:

Saturday, December 10th, 10:00 am ET at AL Thumana, Qatar

Moneyline Odds: 

Morocco -144

Portugal +460

Draw Offs:

+260

Who would have said that this World Cup would surprise us again not once but twice at this stage? Morocco broke the heart of many fans around the world that were seeking a Messi vs. Ronaldo World Cup Final but instead lighted up the hearts of entire nations in the Arab world and Africa in general.

Morocco did what they know to do: defend. They have been the most solid defensive unit for the tournament and not even a Portugal that seemed like a steamroller in the last 16 could do anything.

El-Nesyiri put his team up-front and the rest was history. A great header beat up Diogo Costa, that was an important figure by himself throughout the tournament, and the Lusos were ineffective up-front, encountering a great Bono in the few chances they had.

Now Cristiano Ronaldo has left the pitch in tears again and his terrible second half of the year ended with him on the wrong side of yet another surprising result, adding to his unknown future.

World Cup Qatar 2022 – Most Impressive results and Upsets – Croatia 1 (4) – (2) 1 Brazil

When: 

Friday, December 9 at 10:00 am ET at the Education City Stadium

Moneyline odds: 

Croatia +740

Brazil -259

Draw-Offs: 

+380

Yet again a European nation has left Brazil out of the World Cup in a defining stage. In Germany 2006 (France), South Africa 2010 (Netherlands), and Russia 2018 (Belgium), it was in the quarter-finals, just like this time, while in Brazil 2014 (Germany, in the most humiliating fashion possible) it was in the semifinals.

However, this time we cannot blame it entirely on the team. Up front, the Canarinha faced a team with a strong defensive mind that wanted to go to extra time at any cost and achieve it by totally blocking the Brazilian association game.

When Neymar scored that incredible goal, appearing at a crucial time like his fans always wanted him to, it seemed all over, just for a wonder goal by Petkovic to put the winning card in the Croatian’s hand again.

Livakovic was the hero one more time in a mostly boring game and Croatia’s fame as a powerful and dangerous black horse is gaining force.

Betting Upsets

As we said before, for something to be considered a major upset it has a bunch of elements to cover. However, from a purely betting perspective, did the underdogs cover this World Cup?

Senegal vs. Netherlands

When:

Monday, November 21, at 11:00 am ET in the Al Thumama Stadium

Betting Odds:

Senegal -155

Netherlands +450

Draws Offs:

+270

The Netherlands was somewhat of a weird underdog. Is a team with a fair amount of World Class players and they were facing an excellent team, yes, but one without its major star. However, the Odds are law and they came with a +450 to take a victory that was close to being a draw (and truth be told, looked like a draw for most of the game) as we predicted, but two late goals put the Europeans well positioned to take the group, as they just did.

England vs. USMNT

When: 

Friday, November 25 at 02:00 pm ET at the Al Khor Stadium, located in Doha, Qatar

Moneyline odds: 

USA +490 

England -177

Draw-Offs: 

+320

Another massive surprise was the USMNT draw against the talented England squad. As it wasn’t a win it doesn’t fit quite well in the massive upsets category but does fairly well here. As it is quite obvious, the USMNT recurred to a defensive approach that allowed them to get some good counter-attack opportunities. However, in the end, it was just a duel of defensive solidity.

On the other hand, the USMNT keeps its status as England’s boogie team in the World Cup with fair reason.

Denmark vs. Australia

When:

Wednesday, November 30th at 9:00 am ET at the Al Janoub Stadium

Betting Odds:

Denmark -166

Australia +650

Draw-Offs: 

+205

This game was just as impressive as the other one of the group, and if it wasn’t for the fact that Denmark is not quite a heavyweight of European football, it would be in the superior category. Whatever the case, the Oceanic nation surprised everyone by beating Denmark, a European cup semifinalist, and leaving them last in the group while getting their pass to the round of 16 for the first time in 16 years and just the second time in their history.

This fantasy tale has three protagonists: Souttar, Rowles, and Leckie. The first to are the center-halves, that have had an impressive World Cup, while the third is the one who scored the wondergoal that will put his nation in all the sporting newspapers’ first pages for tomorrow.

Switzerland vs. Serbia

When: 

Friday, December 2nd at 9:00 am ET at the Al Thumama Stadium

Moneyline odds:

Serbia +155

Switzerland +179

Draw-Offs:

+234

This match was very close, on the names, on the paper, and the odds. In the field, it was not a different history, but for the sake of entertainment, they didn’t nullify themselves for a 0-0 but instead had a give-and-take battle that we all enjoyed.

This game is always spicy due to the amount of nationalized Kosovars in the Swiss National Team, and precissly one of them, Granit Xhaka, ended up in a heated discussion with the Serbians towards the end of the match.

Breel Embolo was the star of the match with one goal, while Shaquiri and Freuler put the other two that guarantee the pass of their team. Serbia fought and was up in the score through Mitrovic and Vlahovic in the first half, but the Swiss showed great mental resilience.

However, due to the result of the other match of the group, the clear chances that Embolo and Fassnact missed will weigh in their minds, as one more goal would have given them first place in the group, evading Ronaldo’s Portugal and facing South Korea instead.