The UFC is preparing to put on quite a heavy banger of an event as 311 comes our way, The event, taking place in Los Angeles, will bring some hope and excitement, so we are all eager to watch it go down, as it brings a ton of talents and incredible matches our way.
The main event clash will put Islam Makhachev’s title on the line in a rematch against Arman Tsarukyan, who is looking to avenge the defeat from their first meeting back in 2019 in what could easily be a barn-burner of a title match.
The co-main event pits the current bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov in a fight that will shake the division regardless of the result.
Besides that, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill come to face each other in a clash that could have taken place back when any of them had the belt, so we can finally answer who would have taken the victory.
It is an exciting 14-fight event, where even the Prelims could stack up any other event’s main Card, so the fans should be eager for this event to arrive, and to be honest, at the very least, we are.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Fight Card Odds and Info
| When? | Saturday, January 18th, at 6:00 pm ET, |
| Where? | at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, California |
| Where Can i Watch? | UFC Fight Pass |
| Islam Makhachev 1.24 | Arman Tsarukyan 4.175 |
| Merab Dvalishvili 3.725 | Umar Nurmagomedov 1.301 |
| Jiřà Procházka 1.9 | Jamahal Hill 1.9 |
| Beneil Dariush 2.439 | Renato Moicano 1.57 |
| Kevin Holland 1.909 | Reinier de Ridder 1.89 |
| Payton Talbott 1.088 | Raoni Barcelos 6.75 |
| Jailton Almeida 1.232 | Serghei Spivac 4.05 |
| Bogdan Guskov 1.34 | Billy Elekana 3.225 |
| Grant Dawson 1.373 | Diego Ferreira 3.01 |
| Zach Reese 2.747 | Azamat Bekoev 1.45 |
| Karol Rosa 1.45 | AilÃn Pérez 2.758 |
| Rinya Nakamura 1.232 | Muin Gafurov 4.05 |
| Ricky Turcios 3.59 | Benardo Sopaj 1.295 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov 1.204 | Clayton Carpenter 4.395 |
UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Why Bet on Islam Makhachev?
Makhachev has been an unstoppable force of nature in this division, and that’s putting it lightly, although there have been some signs that there are fighters who are figuring out the incredibly intricate puzzle of Islam’s capabilities and style.
To put it bluntly, Makhachev is wrestle-heavy but also highly aggressive with his striking, but it’s not clean striking it’s just aggressive and wild, something to overwhelm, damage, and ultimately set up the takedowns.
Head kicks are going to be on the menu in this fight for Islam since Tsarukyan does have a height disadvantage so that head’s right there to be kicked, but that also exposes Makhachev to Arman’s wrestling offense, so it’s going to be a matter of Islam’s layering up offense and feints to make Tsarukyan think about things before that head kick gets launched.
Why Bet on Arman Tsarukyan?
As much as we could argue that Tsarukyan has the skill and ability to defeat Makhachev, it is still going to be an uphill climb Tsarukyan is going to have to be relentless in attacking Makhachev, you cannot make him comfortable oryou’ll never defeat him, so we are hoping that Tsarukyan has paid attention to all of his opponent’s fights in recent years because it is in those recent years that we have been seeing warning flags regarding Makhachev’s gaps in his skill set.
Now, one major advantage the Armenian may have coming into this week’s fantastic main event is his striking speed, he is a lot more tightened up with his boxing combinations than Makhachev is, and that is going to be accentuated somewhat by his reach advantage, even if it is as minor as 2 inches in advantage, it is still long enough to keep him at the end of the straight punches, a dissuading factor that may make Islam pause for a moment to recalculate his approach.
Final Betting Analysis: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
The Russian is incredible at crashing through and mauling his opponents, he is ridiculously strong and exceptionally skilled on the ground, and whilst the Armenian does have the wrestling ability to match Makhachev’s skill for skill, we are unsure if he has the endurance and strength to match that tenacity for 5 rounds.
However, we look at that Poirier fight and we see massive gaps in Makhachev’s striking defense, his reliance on overwhelming pressure and non-stop fanatic pace are weaponized to the point where his defense is thrown out the window for overwhelming offense, whether utility in nature or damaging, his offense is incredible, but so is his lack of striking defense, and if there’s one thing Tsarukyan has, it’s a wide range of strikes, and with Tsarukyan having a slight edge in reach, we could perhaps see Tsarukyan find his range, keep the fight standing, and just slowly damage Islam, and the more Islam shoots and maybe misses, the more panicked he will be.
We are betting our token on the upset here, and we expect this to be quite an exciting clash regardless of the result.
UFC 311: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Why Bet on Merab Dvalishvili?
Dvalishvili being an underdog for his first title defence is fascinating, but not unreasonable. The Machine has always been an outstanding wrestling athlete, he is awesome at moving forward, closing the distance, creating chaos, and going for about 20 to 30 takedowns every fight, and he does exceptionally well.
Merab’s style leaves a lot to the imagination, and up until that O’Malley fight, we thought he was going to breeze through the division for a long time, but in the final couple of rounds at UFC 306, we saw him weaken due to body kicks andO’Malley found some success on the feet, and that is key when dealing with Merab, keep the fight standing and you can easily defeat him, that much was displayed when Marlon Moraes rattled Dvalishvili’s chin way back when.
Why Bet on Umar Nurmagomedov?
Nurmagomedov ticked the final box for us when he fought Sandhagen because he looked championship material. The Russian already has incredible wrestling, we know that, it’s in the name, and the most impressive stat that is noticeable is the takedown defense percentage, it’s 100% for those wondering.
We are certain that Nurmagomedov might succumb to at least a pair of takedowns during this fight, but we think he can find switches when they’re available and scramble to a more advantageous position.
Final Betting Analysis: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
We believe that Dvalishvili is going to have to stick to Umar like bubblegum on hair to win this one, giving Umar no space to use his striking.
That being saidthough, Merab’s ability to outwrestle people has been insane, absolutely insane, and something that Umar is going to have to deal with for 25 minutes, so we question whether or not Umar’s cardio is good enough for 25 minutes of an aggressive wrestler.
The most important advantage that Nurmagomedov has over Dvalishvili is his striking arsenal, he is intelligent with his strikes, andhe is first and foremost a striker, and that, alongside his fantastic wrestling, gives him a huge advantage over The Machine already, and we do believe that he will capitalize on it to keep his perfect record going forth.
UFC 311: Jiřà Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
Why Bet on Jiřà Procházka?
Prochzka is someone who we have recently become cautious about giving praise because we think his unique style is losing its effectiveness, and the one single thing that has deleted that fearful style is Prochazka’s insane vulnerability to leg kicks.
The concern we have for Prochazka is that he got knocked out badly recently, and now is taking on someone who has pretty solid power in his hands, sohe’s at fair risk of getting his chin rattled once again, whilst his wild and unpredictable style as always been the main thing about him, his movements are a bit predictable in that there’s always a level change in his stance, so if Hill can time a punch off Prochazka moving to a lower stance, Jiřà could be in a bit of trouble.
Why Bet on Jamahal Hill?
Hill has been rather unremarkable with his striking in comparison to his counterpart, he’s a lot more simplistic with his approach to dealing damage, nothingis thrown with too much overzealousness, it’s all standard boxing combinations, some teeps and head kicks, but nothing too unique, they’re just very, very well timed and come with thunderous power.
We don’t think that Jamahal is going to be as quick or as explosive as Jiřà is, speed is a major advantage as that can create a disruption in the rhythm that Prochazka wants to create, so it will be up to Hill to disrupt that pattern if he can, and if he doesn’t have speed as an advantage, he needs to be the aggressor.
Final Betting Analysis: Jiřà Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
In every single fight against Pereira, Prochazka’s lead leg is always busted up, and whilst Hill isn’t quite one to throw many leg kicks, we do expect that Hill will want to take away the explosive danger that Procházka brings into all of his fights, so those leg kicks should be prioritized for Hill.
Jamahal should chase and push the pace here, as Jiřà cannot dance around and be unorthodox if he’s on the retreat, so if Hill has done his homework he should be able to win through, being an aggressor and most importantly attacking the legs.
UFC 311: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Why Bet on Beneil Dariush?
Dariush is coming from back-to-back KO/TKO losses against some savages in Oliveira and Tsarukyan, and that does make us somewhat concerned about his chin durability, but Moicano has never really been a knockout artist, and we suspect that Beneil is going to be quite more intelligent with his defense.
Dariush is still a fantastic fighter, we believe he can out-wrestle and maybe control the submission specialist, but we do not think that is his only pathway to victory.
The American has a solid chance to win this one if he keeps the fight standing, keeps calm, and sticks to the basics of striking without overexertion or opening himself up to takedown, he should be fine and perhaps could win on the scorecards.
Why Bet on Renato Moicano?
Moicano has brilliant BJJ, he’s highly entertaining on the ground and if he gets into top control he will obliterate his opponent’s face, but Dariushisn’t someone you can walk over on the ground and, is likely to know how to reverse positions, and he seems to be the more physically stronger fighter to force his way out of bad positions.
Renato’s striking is relatively good though, he’s very diverse and has a black belt in Muay Thai, so it’s clear that he’squite well-rounded and capable on the feet. Historically has excelled on the ground, and that’sexactly where he is most likely to take this fight.
Final Betting Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Dariush is good on the feet, or at least good enough to feel comfortable after the first round, to start being a bit more offensive, because understandably so he might be a bit anxious if Moicano starts with a big striking offense in the first round, but if he survives that first round, maybe counters here and there, absorbs and deflects attacks, his confidence is going to skyrocket.
We think that Dariush will grow more and more as the fight goes forth, and that means he will likely getthe win.
UFC 311: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Why Bet on Kevin Holland?
Holland has always been an entertainer, someone who wants to give the crowd a show, who wants to go out there and have fun, and who wants to stay active.
However, we struggle to believe that he takes fighting seriously, there have been moments in which he fights well, but then hejust accepts whatever bad positions he’s in on the ground.
Kevin’s wrestling is acceptable for a striker, but he is scrappy enough to give wrestlers a bit of trouble in controlling him.
Why Bet on Reinier de Ridder?
Ridder did get a lot of takedowns in his fight against Gerald Edward, but he also struggled to keep him down, mostly due to Gerald’s grappling skillset allowing him to reverse position here and there before ultimately succumbing to an RNC.
The Dutchman is going to have to stick to the basics in this fight to win, level change, be the long, lanky fighter that he is, and just drape himself over Holland, controlling him until a submission presents itself. Either way, he needs to take this fight to the ground, plain and simple.
Final Betting Analysis: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Holland’s striking is going to hopefully be on full display in this fight because De Ridder isn’texactly a striker, he is a ferocious grappler who doesn’t want to play around on the feet for long before going for a takedown, and the longer this fight remains on the feet, the more in control Kevin will be of the fight, and a confident Holland is a fantastic fighter to witness.
Reinier De Ridder is going to give Holland trouble on the ground, but will also struggle in dealing with Holland’s extremely diverse striking.
We think the Dutch Reinier is going to find success once he takes Holand to the ground, but it will be an interesting fight.
UFC 311: Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
Why Bet on Payton Talbott?
Talbott is seemingly the new star of the Bantamweight division, looking flawless in a lot of his fights. We cannot see how he can lose this one unless his defensive issues, that is, a complete lack of defense, rise to the occasion, and we see an upset.
We may be getting ahead of ourselves, but there is not much else that needs to be said about Talbott, as he finishes fights so quickly.
His striking is clean, it is sharp, and he strikes with such grace and confidence that you wonder if he has foresight into what his opponent is going to do before they do it. He can snipe his opponent with stupendously clean strikes, typically with straight boxing combinations or even singular attacks.
Why Bet on Raoni Barcelos?
Barcelos is certainly being fed to the wolves here. He does have a chance to win this fight, but it is incredibly slim and the road to victory is quite arduous for him, as he is facing an insanely confident and young prospect who excels at range.
Raoni is a veteran though, He has been in some incredibly challenging fights in his career, and whilst the odds reflect that he may be obliterated, we do think that he will be able to close the distance and try to fight in the clinch, a position that we have not quite seen Talbott fight in for an extended period.
Final Betting Analysis: Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
Talbott thrives at range, and since he is quite long for the division, especially for this fight, he is going to stay where he seems most comfortable, at jab-straight range for the duration of this fight.
This plays well into his main advantage, stylistically, over Barcelos, because whilst Payton is great on the feet and excels at range due to his jabs and straights, Barcelos prefers to get up close and personal, grapple, and look for those submissions.
We expect Talbott to crush Barcelos as the rounds go by.
UFC 311: Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
Why Bet on Jailton Almeida?
Almeida is a fantastic wrestler, and honestly, that’s all that one might need to be to succeed in this fat-stacked division. His entire skill set is to wrestle, you will very rarely see him strike unless it’s to set up the takedown, and for the most part, he has mastered this kind of approach.
Jailton doesn’t just go for one takedown and give up, he goes for a whole truckload. He attempted 13 against Curtis Blaydes in a 6-minute bout, he attempted 15 throughout a 5-round bout against Derrick Lewis, 7 of those attempts in the fifth round.
Why Bet on Serghei Spivac?
Spivac has always been someone who we favored in a lot of his early bouts, he loves to wrestle and maul his opponents and was a nightmare for many of those who stood opposite him, but we don’t think he will be able to do that against Almeida.
Spivac is more of a control-style wrestler, someone who prefers to be heavy on their opponent over someone like Almeida who is relatively quick to hunt for a submission.
There is an argument that being the aggressor as a wrestler, against a wrestler, is more exhausting than being the one to constantly defend the takedowns, but we want to throw that argument/discussion out the window because we feel like this is one of the very few occasions in MMA in which we watch a wrestler face another wrestler.
Final Betting Analysis: Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
Whilst Jailton’s wrestling will be in the spotlight here, the main thing we are intrigued by is just how many takedowns it will take to finally settle down Serghei because Spivac is by far a walk in the park, he is a fantastic wrestler himself, and has no doubt the right tools to negate at least some of Almeida’s takedown attempts, but we are unsure that Spivac will be able to defend all of those attempts.
The Polar Bear has yet to fight this kind of opponent, as Almeida is a bit of a statistical anomaly for this division, so really, as we said, it’s a matter of how many takedowns it will take for Spivac to just give in and accept the bottom position.
In the end, Almeida is likely to windup with the victory.
UFC 311: Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana
Why Bet on Bogdan Guskov?
Guskov is already a scary fighter with disgusting punching power, but he’s even more scary when fighting a newcomer on one week’s notice. He is still rather new to the UFC, having a record of 2-1 in the organization, with massive knockouts against Pauga and Spann, two fairly tough opponents, especially Spann, that fight and result surprised us.
Czarevitch is a force of destructive nature, like the eyewall of a hurricane, as soon as the fight starts he is hunting that knockout. That’s the simplicity, he targets the head quite a lot, almost exclusively, and when he lands, it’s very much noticeable because well, his opponent’s consciousness is suddenly drifting away in the wind.
Why Bet on Billy Elekana?
Elekana coming in on short notice already puts a slight stain on his chances to win, but more so is that first-round fury that he is going to have to deal with by Guskov, because nothing is tastier to a new fighter in the UFC than getting a first-round finish, and a win bonus at that.
Now, Elekana is fairly good on his feet, his southpaw stance allows him to attack the inside leg of his opponent.
Final Betting Analysis: Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana
On short notice, we wouldn’t give Billy much hope in winning this fight. He has good power in his hands and is good at attacking the legs, which is a necessity in dealing with someone like Guskov, but that first round is going to be a massive problem for him, as well as the massive atmosphere that is a UFC PPV event inside of an arena.
As with any short-notice fighter, there is that surprise factor, and Elekana does not fight like Johnnie Walker. He is simpler, a lot more, and whilst not as dangerous, still has nasty intent with his attacks, however, we believe that Guskov is going to have the advantage and take the victory here.
UFC 311: Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
Why Bet on Grant Dawson?
Dawson has always been a fantastic prospect in this talent-stacked division, and outside of that one KO loss against King Green, he has been superb as a fighter.
Grant’s primary skill set is his wrestling and grappling, KGD is incredible in getting the fight to the ground andhe’s just as great at keeping his opponent down and under his control. Most of his game plan, when he fights, is to get the fight to the ground, he may play around with his boxing or leg kicks early in the fight to find or create openings, but ultimately, his entire goal when he fights is to take his opponent to the ground and keep them there.
Why Bet on Diego Ferreira?
Ferreira may be an old warhorse, but this man can still fight exceptionally well for a 40-year-old. He likes his head kicks, he can throw them off the retreat and typically sticks to the right/power side angle of attack.
Now, the bad thing about Diego is that he gives in to pressure a bit too much, we do think that Dawson is still going to be able to back Ferreira up against the cage, the problem that we see Dawson face is that even though Ferreira does walk backward a lot, he fights well off the retreat and that could give Dawson a bunch of problems.
Final Betting Analysis: Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
The main problem for Dawson is him wasting too much time on the feet, and if he dares to do that against someone like Ferreira, he could be on the receiving end of some damaging strikes because Ferreira doesn’t throw softballs, everything comes with nasty intent.
Dawson does leave his hands up, yes, but since he tends to throw a left hook to accentuate a combination from a tough-to-land distance, the moment that Dawson lets his left hook go, his left side of the head is right there for that beautiful right side kick of Ferreira, and if there’s a strike that we see landing somewhat cleanly early, it’s that one.
Now, Ferreira also has a black belt in BJJ, he is stupendously active off his back and Dawson is going to most likely use half guard/mount to mitigate a lot of the attacks that are in the arsenal of Ferreira, so until Dawson gets into that position, expect Ferreira to attack with submissions quickly and work his way towards a victory.
UFC 311: Zach Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev
Why Bet on Zach Reese?
Reese is an interesting one to talk about because the main thing on everyone’s mind is his unique height and reach advantage he has over most of his opponents.
His output is incredible, and it has been the sole reason why he has so many first-round finishes from the very start of the fight. The Savage is marching forward, throwing heavy attacks on the feet. Body kicks, boxing combinations, head kicks, submissions, and he is pretty damn capable of doing all of that in the first round.
Expect body kicks early from Zach, it seems to be his initial attack andit’s a fairly effective one at that since his long legs allow him to whip with some force and impact.
That liver/body kick is going to be incredibly effective since Bekoev is coming in on short notice, so his cardio could be a bit hampered by that lack of a camp.
Why Bet on Azamat Bekoev?
Bekoev has been a force to be reckoned with in the LFA, but for as much as his LFA stint has been quite flawless, it does come with some slight concern that we can see straight off the bat.
Azamat has quite a wide guard, potentially exposing him to those fantastic body attacks that Reese is so comfortable using. The other thing that we can’t help but notice is the slight speed disadvantage that The Kingpin may be at, his stand capabilities are fine, but he is too reactive with his strikes, and it’s going to be hard to react against when all Reese does it’s attack, attack and attack.
The great thing about Bekoev is that he is persistent with wrestling, he does not let go of his opponent when he has his opponent pinned against the cage, Azamat is quite good at grinding them down, and as soon as he is in a strong enough position, he lands some solid ground and pound, but we are unsure if he will be able to get those takedowns since Reese’s guillotines and choke attacks have been a rather strong foundation in his arsenal.
Final Betting Analysis: Zach Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev
Reese is going to most likely look quite comfortable on the feet, but we do think his kicking output will be slightly reduced due to the wrestling threat coming from Bekoev, and we mean, what better way to fight a tall fighter than to take them down and completely remove any striking threat.
We just think the short notice nature of this fight will severely impact Bekoev in this fight, and we also think we are going to see Bekoev at a severe striking speed disadvantage, and Bekoev’s only chance to win this fight is to really grab a hold of Reese, and just wrestle and control, and that’s an effective strategy if the Judges don’t know what activity looks like.
However, we are expecting Reese to break Bekoev down during the fight, possibly ending things quite early.
UFC 311: Karol Rosa vs. AilÃn Pérez
Why Bet on Karol Rosa?
Rosa has typically been a rather well-rounded fighter with a very, very solid grappling base, but the thing that we’ve noticed about her is that she is often too accepting of positions that others could typically reverse.
Karol’s wins have always been against those who have a style that is essentially the opposite of her advantages, fighters who are at their best on their feet, which typically correlates to her using grappling and wrestling to shut down her opponent’s striking ability, nullifying any advantage.
However, whenever the Brazilian faces a fellow grappler/wrestler, she tends to be one slight step behind because her opponents tend to either overpower her with raw physical strength or utilize a variety of takedowns to get Rosa to the ground.
Why Bet on AilÃn Pérez?
Perez is a solid enough grappling specialist to pay attention, but herquality of opponent is questionable, and it makes us think that the UFC is making her a marketing tool.
Anyway, those thoughts aside, Perez has a really solid chance of creating an upset here because she has all the tools that Rosa has, but the difference here is that Perez is a whole heap more proactive in getting the fight to the ground.
Final Betting Analysis: Karol Rosa vs. AilÃn Pérez
The Argentinian primary way to win is a mix of takedowns, hip throws, and anything to get the fight to the ground, She does relatively well and Rosa is going to have to showcase some massive improvements that have been made during this camp or else she’s just going to get thrown around and controlled by Perez.
One massive thing that AilÃn is going to have to be aware of is the leg kick threat from Karol, it seemingly is a new tool in her arsenal and it is going to aim at that leg of Perez actively throughout this fight.
We believe that Perez will be more than capable of making this fight hell for Rosa and take the victory.
UFC 311: Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
Why Bet on Rinya Nakamura?
Nakamura’s wrestling is top tier it is Olympic level, it is championship level, all that praise, and we saw glimpses of his wrestling skill when he fought Carlos Vera, pure dominance on a level that is rarely seen.
The Japanese may achieve similar success in this match although we would say that Gafurov’s wrestling and grappling capabilities are a notch above Vera’s, so we could see some excellent scrambles during this fight with Nakamura ultimately retaining a more dominant and controlling position.
On the feet, The hybred is rather rough he obviously has quite a lot of power, and that mostly stems from typical wrestler explosiveness, but there’s no clean technique or anything that we would typically see from a well-rounded MMA fighter, so he is still quite one dimensional with his skillset outside of his thunderous punches, but he is masterful on the ground, and that is the one thing we should keep an eye on in awe.
Why Bet on Muin Gafurov?
Gafurov has only one win in his UFC career so far, and that was against Kyung Ho Kang, a relatively dangerous grappler. The problem that we see from that fight against Kang is that Gafurov still got taken down, and whilst his scrambles were still effective enough in getting back to the feet, Nakamura is much more active,and more wrestling-focused than Kang’s submission-heavy approach.
Gafurov has fantastic leg kicks. He switches stances often when using them to mask the timing, but ultimately is good at targeting that leg from his natural stance (Orthodox), and that could be more than enough to mitigate the forward aggression that Rinya would need to utilize to get those takedowns.
Final Betting Analysis: Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
Gafurov displayed some really good takedown defense during his fight against Kang, turning into his opponent, digging in the underhook and just beating Kang to the takedown. These are the things that we need to pay attention to as they’re signs that he’s improving.
Unless Muin miraculously manages to wrestle at the level that Nakamura wrestles at, he’s not going to find massive amounts of success. Yes, he will be able to fend off takedowns easier than Vera, but likely not for the whole match.
We do think that there will be incredible wrestling reversals here, with the Japanese ultimately remaining in control of his opponent.
UFC 311: Ricky Turcios vs. Benardo Sopaj
Why Bet on Ricky Turcios?
Ricky Turcios is someone who has barely made headlines and has barely moved the needle. Turcios is quite a funky one to break down because there’s nothing reallygreat about him.
Sure, you can say he’s somewhat well-rounded and can do relatively well anywhere the fight goes, but he has never shown anything that tells us that he is going to make it far.
Why Bet on Benardo Sopaj?
Sopaj is a product of the same team that has made contenders such as Chimaev. He has no doubt learned that heavy pressure style and learned how to keep it up at a reasonable pace, and that’spractically what we expect from him coming into this fight.
Sopaj is still new, yes, and his odds are quite questionable, but we suppose those odds are more of a stylistic match-up kind of measurement rather than anything else because any other 0-1 fighter that faces Turcios is looking at near-even odds.
Final Betting Analysis: Ricky Turcios vs. Benardo Sopaj
Turcios tends to suffer against specialists, and that’spractically what Sopaj is, and the main thing that Ricky is going to contend with is the takedown and wrestling pressure.
His takedown defence has never really been great, he does better work on the feet than defending takedowns, and whilst he can sometimes be scrambly once he gets hit by a takedown, Sopaj is an expert at keeping a hold of his opponent and keeping them pinned down.
Bernardo is going to ignore the threat on the feet, rush forward with incredible pressure, and look for those takedowns early, securing his way to victory.
UFC 311: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
Why Bet on Tagir Ulanbekov?
Ulanbekov has two primary advantages coming into this fight. The first one is going to be his reach advantage, since this fight is primarily a grapplefest, we expect that his reach will allow him to fight for switches during the scrambles, or even just post off the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing if Ulanbekov chooses to do so.
Due to Tagir’s reach advantage, he might be able to cinch up a guillotine or a D’arce/Brabo. But we do have to point out that Ulanbekov is very well rounded however, his striking is rather rudimentary but he is relatively good at throwing kicks at any range and being fairly diverse on the feet to compliment his already fantastic grappling.
Why Bet on Clayton Carpenter?
Carpenter is only a few fights deep into his UFC, finishing his two UFC opponents by submission within two rounds, however, for as talented those two opponents are, Ulanbekov isn’t just a step above, he’s a whole floor ahead.
Carpenter is going to have to make this a dirty fight, nothing but immense aggression and action to tire his opponent out, because Ulanbekov’s gas tank isn’t infinite, he does show signs of fatigue and if Carpenter can expose that fatigue as the fight goes on, then he has a fair chance to win.
Final Betting Analysis: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
We expect Carpenter to be the aggressor. We think any time a shorter grappler faces a taller one, they feel the need to be the aggressor, get into the grappling range of their opponent, and fight for better positions.
However, the best thing about Ulanbekov’s skillset is his ability to keep control over his opponent, whetherit’s a body triangle from the back or smash and hug on the ground, he is fantastic at ensuring that his opponent is playing defense.
In the end, we expect Ulanbekov to land the victory in a heavily contested clash.
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