Watch out for these underdogs at the start of the Playoffs

Texans, Steelers, Broncos, Packers, Commanders and Rams are the six underdogs of the Super Wild Card Weekend, the first phase of the NFL Playoffs.

But what are their chances of pulling off an upset in the first weekend of the postseason? If recent history is any measure, then I’d say their chances are pretty good.

Last season, three of the six underdogs won their Wild Card games: Packers (over Dallas), Buccaneers (against Philadelphia) and Texans (over Browns). To make matters worse, the Detroit Lions didn’t cover the spread (-3.5) against the Rams, and that gives us a fourth underdog with a good record against the spread (ATS).

Who are those teams that could challenge the spread in the Super Wild Card Weekend?

Pittsburgh Steelers (+10)

It’s true that the Steelers were dominated in Baltimore a couple of weeks ago (the Ravens won 34-17) and that Pittsburgh enters the Playoffs on a four-game losing streak, but if there’s one team that knows how to play Lamar Jackson, it’s the Steelers.

Factors to consider: Pittsburgh and Baltimore have met four times in the Playoffs and the Steelers have won three of those games. Also, since 2020, the Ravens have only been able to beat Pittsburgh once (this season) in Baltimore.

Steelers closed the regular season with a 10-7 record against the spread (ATS).

Green Bay Packers (+4.5)

The Packers lost in Week 1 to the Eagles, 34-29, in the first NFL regular season game held in Brazil.

The big unknown in this game is Jalen Hurts. The Eagles’ starting quarterback hasn’t practiced since suffering a concussion in a Week 16 loss at Washington. If Hurts remains in the concussion protocol on Thursday, then Green Bay’s defense will likely have to deal with Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee. Either of them would be making their playoff debut and that could dramatically change the narrative of this game.

Factor to consider: Green Bay has won three of its last four visits to Philadelphia. The Packers finished the season 9-8 ATS.

Washington Commanders (-+3)

Led by rookie Jayden Daniels, the Commanders enter the Playoffs as one of the season’s pleasant surprises.

Washington closed the regular season with five straight wins, four of which were decided by six points or less.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won six of their last seven, but between Weeks 16 and 18 they lost to the Dallas Cowboys and struggled to beat the New Orleans Saints at home.

The Bucs beat Washington 37-20 in Week 1, but Daniels has matured a lot since then and Sunday night’s game will be very different.

Factor to consider: The Commanders finished the regular season with a 5-3 road record and 9-3 against NFC teams.

Washington is 10-6-1 ATS in the 2024 season.

Los Angeles Rams (+1)

Despite playing at home, the Rams are underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings.

In Week 8, the Rams beat Minnesota 30-20, a game in which Matthew Stafford threw four touchdown passes.

In Sunday’s loss in Detroit, the Vikings looked bad, particularly Sam Darnold, who squandered several opportunities inside the Lions’ 20-yard line. If the Rams’ offense is able to score more than 24 points, the pressure will be on Darnold and the rest of the Vikings’ offense.

Factors to consider: The Rams have won their last three meetings against the Vikings and have averaged 32.6 points in those wins. The Vikings finished the regular season with a 6-2 record on the road, while the Rams are 5-4 at home. These teams have met seven times in the postseason and Minnesota has the edge with five wins to the Rams’ two.

The Rams finished the regular season 8-9 ATS.

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