We take another trip to Abu Dhabi for UFC 308, with a numbered event that seems like a love letter to fight fans.
First, we have to point out that there seems to be bad blood in the main event, as we get a clash between the reigning featherweight, Ilia Topuria, and the former champion Max Holloway, in a bout that a ton of people are waiting for, as they have been taking shots at each other on social media for a while.
Besides that, we get a Co-main event that could easily lead any other regular card when the former Champion, Robert Whittaker, meets with the undefeated sensation, Khamzat Chimaev, who is coming back to send a statement and push forward to title contention.
Apart from the Main and Co-Main event, the whole main card is such a treat, as we get Magomed Ankalaev facing Aleksandar Rakic, Lerone Murphy clashing with Dan Ige, and of course, the undefeated Shara Magomedov facing Armen Petrosyan.
We are getting eight prelims to kick things up a notch before the five main card events fights arrive, so we can hardly wait for this event to arrive on Saturday Morning.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Fight Card Odds and Picks
| Ilia Topuria 1.373 | Max Holloway 3.12 |
| Robert Whittaker 2.998 | Khamzat Chimaev 1.4 |
| Magomed Ankalaev 1.193 | Aleksandar Rakić 4.75 |
| Lerone Murphy 1.36 | Dan Ige 3.215 |
| Shara Magomedov 1.54 | Armen Petrosyan 2.508 |
| Ibo Aslan 1.93 | Raffael Cerqueira 1.83 |
| Geoff Neal 1.295 | Rafael dos Anjos 3.49 |
| Myktybek Orolbai 1.29 | Mateusz Rębecki 3.55 |
| Abus Magomedov 1.71 | Brunno Ferreira 2.117 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu 1.134 | Chris Barnett 5.6 |
| Farid Basharat 1.126 | Victor Hugo 5.87 |
| Bruno Silva 2.301 | Ismail Naurdiev 1.61 |
| Rinat Fakhretdinov 1.373 | Carlos Leal 3.03 |
| When? | Saturday, October 26, at 10:00 am ET, 9:00 am CST, 8:00 am MT, and 7:00 am PT |
| Where? | Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates |
| Where can I watch it? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC 308: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
Why Bet on Ilia Topuria?
Topuria has been a highlight fighter on our list for a very, very long time, and we are happy to see him as a champion. He is confident, and so he should be after knocking out Volkanovski.
His best skill set is boxing. He is one of the most dangerous punchers who have made his debut during the COVID era of the UFC, and boy has he been perfect, absolutely perfect.
Topuria’s going to have a slight speed and technique advantage. He is more of a traditional boxer than Holloway, so we expect there to be a lot of angle changes, a lot of head movement, and a lot of feints in order to penetrate Holloway’s volume-heavy boxing.
Why Bet on Max Holloway?
Holloway has been tested, he has been in this situation before, and if Volkanovski in his prime could not put him away, we are very unsure if Topuria will have the ability to do just that. If Gaethje, a wrecking ball in the Lightweight division could not knock him out, we don’t think Topuria can.
However, we don’t trust Holloway’s chin to hold up forever because, whilst he has survived hundreds of punches to the face, that is still hundreds of punches to the face, and that ain’t healthy. No amount of ibuprofen is fixing that stuff.
Holloway’s style of boxing emanates violence without order. Sure, he often has clean sequences, but he also throws logic out the window and makes a fight for the fans, and it is during those precise moments that we are going to see if Topuria can surf the wave, or if he’s going to get crushed by the overwhelming force.
Final Betting Analysis: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
One thing that we don’t like about Topuria is how quickly he’s gone through the division. We haven’t seen the right growth rate that you want to see in a champion, we don’t know how his chin is going to hold up against the absolute king of chaos and war in Holloway because he is indeed Ku, the Hawaiian God of War.
However, what is pertinent for this fight is experience, and Holloway is the Raid boss at the end of the line. No matter how prepared Topuria is, the former has been at the top of the world for a very long time. This is not his first rodeo, and we believe he comes to retake the belt.
UFC 308: Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Why Bet on Robert Whittaker?
Whittaker is coming off an incredible KO win over Aliskerov, but we suppose it was to be expected since he is one of the most brilliant blitz fighters in the division.
His takedown defense has always been extremely good. In his 22 UFC fights, he has a takedown percentage of 82, and you probably can’t get more accurate than that in the long haul. That stat is going to be incredibly important because wrestling is Chimaev’s primary way to win any of his fights, but we believe Whittaker has been tested more than enough times by solid world-class wrestlers. So much, sothat we believe he has the right answers to deal with his rival’s takedowns.
Why Bet on Khamzat Chimaev?
Chimaev has had a tumultuous time in his UFC career. Strife with illness and ailments that would make anyone else quit their career, he has spent a lot of time recovering his health, and we believe that was from that oh-so-famous flu that proliferated throughout the world in 2020.
Regarding his style,we know it; it’s explosive wrestling. He’s such a heavy-style wrestler that it is seemingly impossible to see him not wrestle. It is his bread and butter, he builds off all of his success during a fight from that takedown and we firmly believe that he is going to find the most success in wrestling.
Final Betting Analysis: Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev
We are cautious in saying that Chimaev’s cardio will be problematic, and we are by no means a doctor, but with how horrific his illnesses have been, we can’t imagine a weight cut plus a 15+ minute fight will make him look as dangerous as he did before his pre-COVID epoch.
On the feet, Whittaker might be in trouble if Chimaev throws caution to the wind and punches heavy and often. That is, in fact, the biggest danger for the Australian as Whittaker uses distance and range as his defense. His guard isn’t too great so he uses his footwork to glide out of the way.
On the flip side, Whittaker is going to have a disgusting speed advantage, his blitzes are incredible and will be prevalent in the later rounds after Chimaev starts to possibly fatigue.
We believe Whittaker is going to get a clean win.
UFC 308: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakić
Why Bet on Magomed Ankalaev?
Ankalaev has been an indestructible force of nature in the Light Heavyweight division for his entire career, with only a few grazes and cuts during his near-immaculate stint, there is no doubt that he will destroy Rakic.
Ankalaev is a very well-rounded kickboxer who is ridiculously light on his feet, and he uses his southpaw stance really well, setting up that sniper of a left hand with a variety of lead hand strikes.
There is no denying the fact that Ankalaev is one of the most dangerous fighters in the division and we sincerely hope that we see him fight for the belt next.
The weaponry most readily available for him will be the body and head kick from the left side. That liver is wide open for attack and if Ankalaev does that early enough, we will see that head kick be more open than a 24-hour McDonalds.
Why Bet on Aleksandar Rakić?
Rakic has nothing to lose and everything to gain from this fight. He is being fed to the wolves, but considering how tenacious and aggressive hr can be, there is a small chance for him.
From a technical standpoint, he cannot match the cleanliness and the timing of Ankalaev, but when it comes to power, that is perhaps where he may hold the advantage as Rakic is a very, very powerful striker who hits like a sledgehammer. If he strings together boxing combinations and never lets Ankalaev settle on the feet, that 3-inch reach advantage could come into play as the latter isn’t known for raising the guard, only moving out of the way.
Final Betting Analysis: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakić
We genuinely don’t see how Rakic can be a threat to Ankalaev unless he smacks the legs of the latter early, taking away the pop of his shots. However, if Magomed has done tape and prepared for Aleksandar well, then he would know that leg kicks are a precursor to all of Rakic’s finishing sequences and heavier shots, so we do expect him to check or counter those.
We simply and confidently think Ankalaev is going to win here.
UFC 308: Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige
Why Bet on Lerone Murphy?
Murphy’s rise to his first Main Event spot was marvelous, but if there’s one thing we’re even more sure of, it’s he’s ready for the top ten because that win over Barboza ticked all those boxes.
Murphy came into the UFC with a striking background behind him, we all expected him to be mostly nothing but a phenomenal striker, and with his career accuracy sitting at 52%, he sure is a fantastic technician on the feet. Still, he added a few wrinkles to his game recently with his wrestling, something he has been employing with a lot more enthusiasm.
On the feet, Murphy is an expert at making his opponent a bit timid, and he often does so with his lightning-quick feints from both his shoulders and his hips. It’s hard to tell what he’s going to throw because he rarely throws the same kind of strike after each reset.
Why Bet on Dan Ige?
Ige is coming off a loss against Diego Lopes, but let’s be fair here, the dude didn’t know he was going to fight until just hours before.
He is seemingly always ready to fight, and his boxing has always been fairly crisp, but we don’t know if he is going to be the faster boxer in this fight. Murphy tends to be very tricky to read due to his feints and his diversity of attacks, and that has always been something that Ige has struggled with.
If Ige gets too comfortable on the feet, we might see Murphy use his wrestling skills. His takedowns are masked well behind his light footwork so it might be hard for Dan to read that takedown incoming.
Final Betting Analysis: Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige
We are incredibly aware that Murphy’s output during his Barboza fight was anomalous to his career, so we do not expect Murphy to throw 200+ strikes in this three-round war. However, we expect Murphy to be the one to showcase more weapons, elbows, knees, body kicks, and things like that.
If that fails him, he has displayed solid double-leg takedowns and is no doubt working to refine that skillset during this camp, the necessary things to land him the win.
UFC 308: Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan
Why Bet on Shara Magomedov?
Magomedov is slowly becoming a tiny tiny bit mediocre. See, before he joined the UFC, he was an absolute highlight-reel fighter who was spoken about in all corners of the MMA social media world. The dude was all over the place and was a well-known fighter, but then he fought in the UFC and he just seems meh.
He’s got fantastic kicks, but that’s all he has. You could cut off his arms and he would not fight one bit differently, and this all is going to be problematic for him because he already suffers heavily from pressure fighters. He is always on the back foot, retreating just enough to land kicks, but that’s about it.
When Magomedov is firing off his kicks and feeling his groove, he looks great and incredibly athletic. However, as the rounds go by, that kind of performance seemingly stagnates a tiny bit, and that perhaps comes from the fatigue of having a heavy output through kicking, so we just don’t know how long that one-dimensional style of striking is going to last as he rises through the ranks.
Anyway, Magomedov needs to keep a distance and do what he does best in order to win. We will say that we are greatly concerned that his kicking capabilities will be nullified when Petrosyan starts to wrestle because that seems to be the only way to deal with someone like him, wrestle and take away the kicks.
Why Bet on Armen Petrosyan?
Petrosyan is coming off a tough loss against Rodolfo Vieira in which he got caught in an arm triangle submission. This time, we think he’s going to be a bit more comfortable in the cage as he is fighting another striker who doesn’t seem to wrestle offensively.
This means Petrosyan can focus on unleashing output and overwhelm Magomedov’s ability to find his rhythm to let those kicks go. That is because it’s nearly impossible to counter someone with a kick.
We say near because,if anyone can sneakily throw a kick at close range, it certainly is Shara. Petrosyan is very good at stringing together boxing combinations, and that’s going to be another aspect that would lead to victory as, traditionally, the best counter for a kick is a punch. Also, we already saw Petrosyan handle the kick-heavy style that Christian Leroy Duncan utilized in their fight 8 months ago.
Final Betting Analysis: Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan
If there is ever a chance of an upset happening in this card, I would list Petrosyan as being the one to create it. We do not think he is going to win this one cleanly. On the contrary, it’s going to be a tenacious back-and-forth fight between two incredibly dangerous Muay Thai fighters, but Armen is technical enough to give Shara some trouble on the feet.
With that said, Magomedov has pulled miraculous victories out of his ass before. His kick variance, speed, and athleticism are a rare sight to behold and thus could very well be a unique challenge to overcome for Petrosyan, so we have to go with him.
UFC 308: Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerqueira
Why Bet on Ibo Aslan?
Aslan is coming off a very good debut win over Turkalj, and it took us by surprise that he had the cardio to finish him in the third round because his stamina is absolute bollocks.
Anyway, Aslan is very easy and simple to break down. He’s a Light Heavyweight who has disgusting first-round explosiveness and finishing potential. He is a threat to practically anyone who chooses to stand and trade with him, and if Cerqueira agrees to that kind of entertaining fight, then he’s going to be in for a rough one because Ibo is insane in those first minutes.
His cardio can be questionable, but he is a force in the first round. He is only iffy if he explodes in the first round though, and ifhe fought as he did against Turkalj, a measured approach, we expect that his cardio will look fine in the later rounds, but that’s if Cerqueira also fights at that respectful pace. However, looking at his record and history, he is a ruthless first-round fighter. Overhand rights andsingle-shot power are the names of the game for Aslan.
Why Bet on Raffael Cerqueira?
Cerqueira is coming into this fight undefeated with wins across a variety of promotions, and with that amount of promotion hopping, it is very difficult to find decent competition which probably explains why his history of opponents is quite dreadful.
Anyway, there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to him. We see him target the liver with his power side body kick, so that could be a tool to slow down the explosivity of Aslan early. However, that could also be a double-edged sword as the latter could just as easily catch the kick and let his right do the job after letting go of the leg.
Cerqueira tends to use a lot of his lower limbs in his attacks. From body kicks to jumping knees, he is a fairly tricky fighter to read due to his unique style of striking. However, we suppose that adds a bit of uniqueness to this fight because now we have a bout between a heavy puncher versus a diverse and powerful kicker. So, whoever lets their strikes off and lands effectively first is on the way to victory.
Final Betting Analysis: Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerqueira
There are still quite a lot of unknowns here. All we can say with certainty is that this fight is not going the distance.
Both are prolific finishers, and even though we are not sold on Aslan as a solid fighter yet, we are completely sold that this fight will be a crowd-pleaser, and we will be taking him as our pick to win.
UFC 308: Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Why Bet on Geoff Neal?
Neal is coming off back-to-back losses against Garry and Rakhmonov, two contenders for the belt, and that’s not a bad duo to lose to all things considered.
The great thing about Neal in this fight is his takedown defense. He is incredible at keeping the fight standing and ensuring that he fights diligently to get back some space and let his hands go.
However, his best asset as a fighter is his boxing. He is fully capable of picking apart RDA with his five-inch reach advantage, and since Rafael is moving up in weight to take on Neal, we are probably going to see a version of him who, if he hasn’t done any extracurricular chemical diet changes, might be a bit slower and pudgier. That could lead to cardio being a question, especially at his age.
Why Bet on Rafael dos Anjos?
RDA is someone who will remain in all of our minds as an absolute legend of the game. Every time we watch him fight, he is showcasing his notorious tenacity and endurance as a veteran of the cage.
However, at the age of 40, it’s clear that he is way past his prime and that the Welterweight competition is catching up to him. He has always been a phenomenal grappler and wrestler who thrives on the ground. It is his abode and where he takes his opponents into deep waters, in which for the most part they are utterly stuck with RDA working to improve position and find that submission.
Everything from his control over his opponent to the nonstop punishment that opens them up to submission, RDA can do it. With that said though, he has not looked dominant in quite some time, and in this fight against Neal, he has to look dominant because the latter has the right tools to deal with him. He has the takedown defense to keep this fight standing andhe has the sharp boxing and the reach to make this a challenging fight for Rafael to take.
Final Betting Analysis: Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos
We suspect that Neal will want to keep the fight at a straight boxing distance so that RDA is as far from his hips or legs as possible. And we mean, he has the athleticism and strength to do just that.
To add to that, he’s also a lot younger and faster than RDA so even if he were to shoot for a takedown, we think Neal’s sprawl game will be in tip-top shape and we’ll end up seeing RDA grow even more desperate for that takedown, perhaps using the cage to just control and grind down the younger fighter.
In the end, we think Neal will be able totakethe win.
UFC 308: Myktybek Orolbai vs. Mateusz Rębecki
Why Bet on Myktybek Orolbai?
Orolbai is only two fights deep into his UFC career, but he has looked unstoppable. Granted, he has only fought and won against Brener and Medic, but he has built some momentum.
He is not afraid to be the aggressor, being quick to assert dominance and control in the cage, always walking down his opponent and making sure that his opponent’s back is against the cage. That position alone sets up so many kinds of attacks that make Orolbai such a dangerous prospect.
Myktybek Orolbai is primarily a traditional MMA wrestler. He mixes in his boxing with his takedowns almost seamlessly, and to great effect as he is so strong with the forward pressure that he bullies his opponent into succumbing to the takedown.
Why Bet on Mateusz Rębecki?
Rebecki is someone who we have rated relatively high after his win on DWCS.However, he lost terribly against Diego Ferreira which no doubt damaged his stock a bit.
One thing we notice is that his takedown defense is a major problem for someone who is so aggressive with his wrestling. It’s that defensive issue that Orolbai and his team are going to exploit.
Rebecki has always damaged his opponents on the ground,that is where most of his strikes landed come from, and that’s also where he scores the most points, but we don’t know if he is able to take Orolbai down.
Final Betting Analysis: Myktybek Orolbai vs. Mateusz Rębecki
With how tall and long Orolbai is in comparison, we think we are going to see him use his length to wrap or drape himself over Rebecki in a defensive sprawl whenever the latter shoots.
On the feet, it’s an interesting fight as neither fighter is really solid. The reach alone is going to be a problem for Rebecki to figure out, so at least Orolbai will have that as an advantage.
Add to that how light-footed Orolbai is and how good he can be at scrambling for advantageous positions, and you have a dangerous lightweight in front of you.
We think when it comes to sheer wrestling ability, Orolbai is going to be the more impressive wrestler, and his cardio is going to allow him to put on a stupendous pace and get the victory.
UFC 308: Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira
Why Bet on Abus Magomedov?
Magomedov has not had the smooth run through the UFC that was previously foretold by analysts and pundits back when he was making his debut.
All of that aura vanished when he fought Strickland, and it became glaringly clear where his weaknesses lie, and that’s his balance of output. Magomedov can start strong, and he is disgustingly effective when he pushes the pedal to the metal. However, there is one thing that we have noticed time after time, and that’s the fact that he doesn’t like to get hit.
The only good news for him when it comes to the stand-up is that he’s longer than Ferreira. So, as long as he consistently sticks out the jab to create a defensive counter “barrier,” he should be clear from the explosive singular attacks that his rival is so well known at throwing.
Now, Magomedov better walks into the octagon with some sunglasses or eye protection because we do not like how Ferreira always paws out with his fingers outstretched. That could be a problem for Abus and it could freeze him up out of concern about getting his eye poked.
Why Bet on Brunno Ferreira?
Ferreira is primarily a first-round finisher. We are saying that in a nearly literal sense as that is when he either gets finished or gets the finish. He has only seen the second round once in his career so we very much question how durable of a fighter he is if he is forced to fight till the end.
Ferreira is a ferocious striker though. He has a whole lot of disgusting power behind all of his strikes, and even if that is more than enough to put away Abus, we are unsure if he will be able to if the latter plays the long game and forces him into unfamiliar territory.
Brunno is quite weird when he gets pressured. He likes to retreat and lean back too much, as we saw when he fought Stoltzfus. It’s like he doesn’t know what a normal non-power strike is, as he resorts only to explosive attacks that come in extremely short bursts of action. We just don’t know if he is going to be effective in surviving the constant pressure that Abus utilizes well.
Ferreira will be dangerous for every second that he is in the fight. He has proven to us that, despite how chaotic it gets, he is still capable of landing those fight-ending shots.
Final Betting Analysis: Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira
We think Magomedov’s still stance makes him highly susceptible to getting hit. That’s not what you want to see when he’s matched against a phenomenal knockout artist like Ferreira. Mix that in with his height advantage and it kind of lines him up perfectly with his powerful overhand attacks.
However, we believe that Magomedov will find a way to play the long game and force Ferreira to reach the scorecards with the judges favoring him.
UFC 308: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Chris Barnett
Why Bet on Kennedy Nzechukwu?
Nzechukwu has a clear, clear height and reach advantage, and since his tools and style stem from his striking at distance, we cannot help that he is going to have a possible field day in the cage. Teeps, Jabs, Leg kicks, Knees, all of these weapons have been accessible to Nzechukwu in his past fights against somewhat taller opponents. Now he’s facing a tree stump that can throw flashy kicks but also weighs too much of a load. So, it is fair to say that all of those weapons he could previously rely on to win, are instantly available to him this weekend.
Now, Barnett has tools that he could use to get a win. Still, there is a vast difference in height and reach between Barnett’s last opponent and Nzechukwu.
We do not believe there will be wrestling involved in this fight, atmost there might be clinch action against the cage. However, we cannot imagine Barnett looking for takedowns against someone whose knees are so dangerous.
Why Bet on Chris Barnett?
Barnett was our big underdog pick when he was scheduled to fight Tafa. We had all the reasons andwe were so honed but then shattered that the fight never happened.
Unfortunately, all of the good things we spoke about when it came to him are near extinct in this fight because whilst he can still land those heavy leg kicks, Nzechukwu has a lot more weapons than Tafa does. He won’t be able to freely attack an injured leg that Tafa had, so coming into this fight with a fresh slate, Barnett is fighting a massive uphill battle.
Between his house being impacted by the hurricanes, to traveling all the way to Abu Dhabi to fight, we cannot imagine that he has had any proper training time and that he’s distracted.
Look, we love him. He is one of the most fun heavyweights, but we don’t think this is a battle he will win outside of a miraculous flush knockout.
Final Betting Analysis: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Chris Barnett
Short and sweet, much like Barnett, this fight has Nzechukwu written all over it. That height advantage allows the knees and kicks to land more easily, and the reach will allow him to stick and move to great effect, cardio and age tell me that the longer this fight goes on, the more fatigued Barnett might be and thus the more effective Nzechukwu becomes.
UFC 308: Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo
Why Bet on Farid Basharat?
Basharat is one of the cleaner fighters in the division, and we don’t mean USADA-wise, we just mean that his style is very safe and he doesn’t risk doing anything that might not work that could then expose him to dangers from his opponent.
Basharat has outstanding kicks at a distance, it is his primary kind of strike, he is so light on the feet and fights at the perfect distance to throw kicks from both sides without much fear of any counterpunch landing. However, the most impressive style that Basharat has is his wrestling. He is an excellent wrestler who is intelligent at chaining together actions and sequences to secure a takedown.
Why Bet on Victor Hugo?
Hugo is coming off a fantastic win over newcomer Pedro Falcao, and whilst he was successful at defending most of the takedown attempts from Falcao, we don’t know if he will be able to have that same success against Basharat. We say that because it’s obvious that the latter’s takedowns are highly technical, they are not your standard single action sequences but layered setups he chains together.
It is fair for me to say that Hugo fights off the takedowns well, he is a very physically strong fighter who can be dangerous in setting up his clinch strikes when his opponent is glued to them against the cage. We also want to highlight how sneaky he can be on the ground, as he doesn’t remain placated with being in a bad position. He constantly looks to either sweep his way out of a badposition,or becomes highly active in hunting for submissions.
Final Betting Analysis: Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo
We can see Basharat utilizing the same tools that he always uses in this fight, starting with strong and fast kicks to different targets, dancing around the edge of his opponent’s range, and then, once his foe is used to the kicks and the striking battle, the takedown will come. Hugo could find himself swarmed with tonnes of top pressure during that fight. That is the absolute key for Basharat to get a win this week as any exchange on the feet could be a bit hairy.
We don’t know if Hugo will manage to successfully catch Basharat in a submission, but there will be attempts made before the judges are called in to decide if he did enough or if the latter ran him over.
UFC 308: Bruno Silva vs. Ismail Naurdiev
Why Bet on Bruno Silva?
Silva has been on a rough losing streak, despite being a relatively good fighter with great kickboxing foundations. His losses have been against rather top talent in the division, so it’s fair to say whilst the last two years of his career have been trivial, it’s not like he’s losing to the worst of the division. It’s arguable that he can stay as a gatekeeper figure for the remainder of his career.
Silva is going to be the far cleaner kickboxer when it comes to landing strikes at a distance. Still, he will have to be careful of the explosive spinning attacks that Naurdiev is so known for throwing out.
Secondary to that threat is going to be the takedowns. Naurdiev has a fairly big wrestling advantage in this fight, but that is only because Silva does not wrestle himself, so he is more reactionary when it comes to wrestlingthan proactive in chasing a level change.
The good news for Silva is that preparing for someone like Weidman has accelerated his takedown defense abilities as a fighter. So, we are intrigued to see if he is as sharp as ever with his takedown defense this weekend.
Why Bet on Ismail Naurdiev?
Naurdiev is a very diverse and well-rounded fighter who utilizes pretty fancy spinning back attacks early and often during his bouts. However, he mostly sticks to the basics relatively well, which generally is a flurry of punches followed by takedown attempts.
Outside of that spinning attack he uses, he’s quite the standard fighter who is great at asserting dominance sporadically. The key to victory here, or at least the path of least resistance for Naurdiev, is to wrestle. We suspect that we are going to see him do what he tends to do best, explode with a striking sequence, then look for the legs or hips for a takedown.
The variance of takedowns that Naurdiev uses is fairly high, as he can switch from a doubleto a single,to a high crotch takedown,and has quite a lot of vertical strength and explosiveness.
Final Betting Analysis: Bruno Silva vs. Ismail Naurdiev
Maybe, the main way for Naurdiev to secure takedowns is to get Silva’s feet off the floor because his takedown defense typically stems from upper body techniques like under hooks and whizzes. A lift would neutralize that for the most part.
Now, we understand that he has a high finish rate with a lot of knockouts under his belt. Still, we believe that stat primarily stemmed from his early years because, since then, he has relied a lot more on his wrestling to produce finishes via ground and pound.
We don’t think there’s a big threat of Naurdiev knocking out Silva on the feet, but we believe a lot of the finishing potential will stem from the takedown and ground and pound.
UFC 308: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Carlos Leal
Why Bet on Rinat Fakhretdinov?
Fakhretdinov most likely has a massive wrestling advantage in this fight. It is essentially what he does when he fights,he has no problem fighting at range, but it is clear that he is at his best when he is grinding his opponent against the fence, wrapping his arms around them, and using incredible strength and grip to drag them down.
He has to contend with a tenacious start by Leal, as he is coming in on short notice with no proper camp behind him. So, as is a general rule, the first round will most likely be Fakhretdinov’s most trivial one, as he will deal with someone who may start off with his foot on the gas.
Fakhretdinov is a fairly tactical fighter when it comes to striking. He never does anything that is unorthodox. They are all clean, meaningful strikes that primarily target the head but that is to set up the takedowns. You will notice he has a clear goal in mind when he fights, or at least a very simple sequence.
He throws a short combination on the feet then just goes for the level change. It’s clean and whilst it’s probably repetitious, it’s highly effective because he rarely tires out and the pause in the action between the level change and the takedown action itself gives him enough time to momentarily explode.
Why Bet on Carlos Leal?
Leal is coming in as a late replacement. We think it was last week, so he is not going to be fully prepared for the challenge he has to face.
He is a very heavy kickboxer who has quite a wide stance and a propensity to switch said stance in order to mask his attacks. This could be a bit problematic for Fakhretdinov early because, as we said, a short notice fighter’s best round is typically the first.
Put into travel time to Abu Dhabi andyou get someone who isn’t properly ready for a fight and could have a rather rough time adjusting to the timezone. Anyway, back to the fight itself. He gasps a decent takedown defence, being rather quick to float the hips and make his lead leg hard to grab onto. However, that is only if his opponent shoots without any setup, which Fakhretdinov doesn’t do since he sets most of his takedowns with strikes up top.
Leal is rather heavy-handed and isn’t afraid to explode into range with jumping knees or some other unorthodox attacks, but we think he’s rather countable as well, as his defenses are a bit wavy, moving his hands a lot to mask the change-up in offensive output.
Final Betting Analysis: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Carlos Leal
Watching through Leal’s PFL fights, it looks as if he is susceptible to being the first one to get struck. So, as long as Fakhretdinov lands those jabs, andkeeps Leal’s hands high as if it’s a striking bout, the takedowns should come somewhat easily.
That would easily give Fakhretdinov the upper hand in this fight and land him an easy victory.
EN 
ES 
PT 
PT_BR