The UFC just had quite a banger of an event in UFC 307, and now, we are going back to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Even though the Fight Night may not sport too many big names, we are still getting a banger of a headliner.
The main event is a title eliminator between Brandon Royval, who recently lost a fight to the title holder, Alexandre Pantoja, but recently took payback over the former champion Brandon Moreno by winning a split decision in his latest match. His opponent will be the Japanese sensation, and 16-0 undefeated Fighter, Tatsuro Taira, a young prospect looking to make his way to a title fight in the Flyweight Division.
The co-main event sees Brad Tavares facing Jun Yong Park, in an interesting middleweight bout, which may not have such stakes as the headliner but can still be quite a fun match.
We are getting a lot of up-and-coming talent as we walk into this event, which has 14 fights, and they will be split into 6 main card bouts and 7 Prelims where the fighters will bring up the hype.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira Fight Card Odds and Picks
| Brandon Royval 3.055 | Tatsuro Taira 1.397 |
| Brad Tavares 2.538 | Jun Yong Park 1.517 |
| Grant Dawson 1.232 | Rafa García 4.1 |
| Chidi Njokuani 1.567 | Jared Gooden 2.404 |
| Josh Fremd 1.544 | Abdul Razak Alhassan 2.448 |
| Daniel Rodriguez 1.503 | Alex Morono 2.563 |
| Niko Price 1.291 | Themba Gorimbo 3.55 |
| Clayton Carpenter 1.499 | Lucas Rocha 2.602 |
| CJ Vergara 3.73 | Ramazan Temirov 1.279 |
| Jonathan Pearce 1.624 | Pat Sabatini 2.273 |
| Dan Argueta 2.399 | Cody Haddon 1.564 |
| Cory McKenna 2.072 | Julia Polastri 1.738 |
| Junior Tafa 1.37 | Sean Sharaf 3.2 |
| When? | Saturday, October 12th, at 4:00 pm ET, 3:00 pm CST, 2:00 pm MT, and 1:00 pm PT |
| Where? | The Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Where can I watch it? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
Why Bet on Brandon Royval?
Royval has seemingly snuck his way to the top of the division, and honestly, as much as we discounted him as an average fighter many years ago, he has grown into one hell of a contender.
His fight against Pantoja was a good showcase of him having the capabilities to hang and bang with the top dogs. After a very close win over Moreno, that only cements his position as a formidable opponent for anyone who faces him, including the young and aspiring grappler in Tatsuro Taira.
Royval is a veteran in the UFC, and we think his kickboxing could present quite a few challenges for Taira, especially since Taira’s striking isn’t clean. It’s long and in large variety but not necessarily a clean style, it’smostly used to set up takedowns and trips.
Why Bet on Tatsuro Taira?
Taira has exploded into the UFC with such insane momentum and immense success that it’s hard to see where his ceiling is because, at the moment, it feels like at24 he is just getting started. However, with that said, at his age, you cannot expect incredible well-roundedness, and you can see that when he strikes.It’s very basic striking, only to supplement his takedown capabilities, and if Royval finds his groove on the feet, it could be a dangerous fight for Taira.
With that said, whenever Taira is switched on and has started that gameplan that perfectly negates his opponents’ strengths, he’s unstoppable. In this case, it’s going to be the grappling, he is going to have to chain takedowns together and cut some sharp angles with the trips and takedowns in order to just overwhelm and make it difficult for Royval to counter and reverse position.
Taira’s grappling threat is unique. Ideally, for Royval to achieve the most success, he needs to disengage from anything that could lead to a trip or takedown, and just keep the fight standing, no kicks, just boxing.
Final Betting Analysis: Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
As long as this fight remains standing, we are likely to see Royval land some very clean strikes but I think that he is going to get trapped in a clinch where he will eat a knee or two eventually.That’s because that seems to be Taira’s comfortable standing position.
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park
Why Bet on Brad Tavares?
Tavares is such an old-school fighter, well-rounded and experienced. His takedown defense is going to be pivotal in getting a win over Park because the latter is very reliant on his takedowns to win, and we have seen Tavares defend takedowns very easily. Especially by Weidman, who is an elite-level wrestler.
Tavares could very, very well pull off an upset here, but we are a little bit worried about how he is going to deal with the multi-lane approach of Park.
Why Bet on Jun Yong Park?
Park is a very, very well-rounded fighter who is coming off a tough split decision loss against Andre Muniz. That is despite the fact that he did some damage and was active off his back against Muniz.
Jun Yong Park has always been a very clean fighter. If he’s not using his wrestling and grappling to look for submissions or control his opponents, he’s using his very clean boxing to maintain range and open them up for takedowns.
The one thing he is going to be using very well, very early, is his jabs. It is his builder of combinations, a comfort weapon that he relies on to open up his opponent at a safe distance, and if he keeps sticking the jab in Tavares’ face, it’s going to make him a bit sloppy with the retaliations.
Final Betting Analysis: Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park
Park is going to have to be the aggressor and overwhelm Tavares to get a win here, and I firmly believe his conditioning and cardio are going to allow him to do just that.
This is still a 50/50 fight, though. Tavares, despite being a bit of an older fighter, still looks good, but it seems like he’s glided these past few fights. We haven’t seen any urgency for a finish from him, it’s been too clean. Park is hopefully going to push that pace to ignite some ferociousness from Tavares, but we think the former will get the nod.
UFC Fight Night: Grant Dawson vs. Rafa García
Why Bet on Grant Dawson?
Dawson is coming off a strong win over Joe Solecki, in which we saw what he does best, wrestle and grapple. Near 14 minutes of control time in a three-round fight against a rather strong grappler like Solecki is insane.
Dawson is going to have to rely on that kind of game plan to neutralize thefairly strong grappling of Rafa.It’s fair to say that, at this point in his career, he has faced more than enough grapplers to know the formula to deal with them. He knows their submission setups, and Garcia isn’t too special.
Why Bet on Rafa García?
Garcia is as tough as they come, he is stocky, strong, and has a pretty impervious stance, and it’s the stance that we kind of want to rant about.
Rafa Garcia is a very grounded orthodox fighter. He has a low base, a solid shell, and heavy enough hands to dissuade his opponents from advancing without layers of attacks and feints.
Final Betting Analysis: Grant Dawson vs. Rafa García
Dawson is going to have to wrestle to win, which is a fairly expected way for him to fight, it’s what he does best and we don’t see that style changing any time soon.
Garcia is a strong starter, but fatigue sometimes plays a role in his fights and we see a bit of a slow decline and drop off in activity and performance as the rounds go by. It’s in rounds 2 and 3 that we see Dawson capitalizing on most of the control time,and even on some takedowns.
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden
Why Bet on Chidi Njokuani?
Njokuani is coming off a fairly tough back-and-forth bout against McKee, in which we essentially saw the latter get battered but not enough for an apparent unanimous decision.
Chidi Njokuani has always been a powerful kickboxer who throws practically everything into every strike. The good thing about Njokuani is that the volume is minimalwhilst he still maximises damage. He doesn’t throw anything unnecessarily, everything is well-timed and at a range in which he can land effectivelyin order to deal serious damage.
Why Bet on Jared Gooden?
Gooden, on the other hand, is someone who we do not rate highly. We’re always suspicious of fighters who don’t do well in the UFC their first time around, miss weight, and get cut, only to come back, and do the same again.It’s just a whole damn mess of a career.
Gooden is a powerful puncher, there is no doubt about that, but we think he is fighting a bit uphill as he takes on Njokuani, who is a bit more of a technician on the feet.
Final Betting Analysis: Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden
Gooden’s explosiveness could cause a bit of a problem in disrupting the calm pattern of Njokuani, and if the latter is pushed back into the fence then that shuts down a lot of his ability to fire back effectively.
Still, we don’t think Gooden has that ability since he is such a stationary target that Njokuani will be able to counter and circle away from the fence.
Gooden just seems like a bulldozer when he fights, a lot of power and aggression with none of the finesse, and we can’t help but see Njokuani capitalizing on that.
UFC Fight Night: Josh Fremd vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Why Bet on Josh Fremd?
Fremd is coming off back-to-back losses against Petroski and Kopylov, and we suppose that puts him in a certain place on the roster at a low level.
Fremd is not a UFC-level fighter, he has somewhat okay wrestling, and despite his long frame, his striking could be better. So, with that said, it’s probably obvious that we don’t rate Fremd particularly highly.
Why Bet on Abdul Razak Alhassan?
Alhassan is certainly getting up there in age. He’s hitting that mythical 40 in a matter of months, but the good news is that there hasn’t been too much sign of a performance slowdown.
Alhassan’s takedown defense, as I said before, is always going to be a question when coming up against someone who employs that style in every fight. Whilst Fremd hasn’t had the historical success that Malkoun and Pyfer have had with their wrestling, we think that if Alhassan is tied up in the clinch for too long, time would not be in his favor.
Final Betting Analysis: Josh Fremd vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Fremd has a significant height advantage butthat’s only going to help Alhassan, as he is an explosive striker who deals damage in short but powerful bursts.
The good news for Alhassan is that since Fremd is taller, he would need to duck into the level change and dedicate himself to a lower stance in which he could potentially time an uppercut.
We expect the fight to end in the first with an Alhassan victory.
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono
Why Bet on Daniel Rodriguez?
Rodriguez is coming off a horrific losing streak, losing to Gastelum, Garry, and Magny within the last two years. It has been a tough couple of years for the 37-year-old.
Daniel is still a dangerous opponent on the feet who, due to his reach advantage, could pose quite a few problems for the really, really weird Morono.
Rodriguez is highly effective off his jab. He is comfortable throwing nothing but the jab, only to build off it as the minutes go by, adding more and more strikes to a sequence.
Why Bet on Alex Morono?
Morono is coming off a tough loss against Niko Price, although he was a short-notice fighter so we can excuse him for a bit of an off-performance.
Morono is a strange one to talk about because he doesn’t have any particular style, the only style that we can see he utilizes exceptionally well is his BJJ. He is a frenetic submission specialist, who is so quick to chain submissions together, regardless of position, so if this fight hits the ground we expect Morono to absolutely dominate and perhaps find a few submission options.
Final Betting Analysis: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono
In terms of power and cleanliness of strikes, we think Rodriguez is the much better boxer. His volume and his pressure in all three rounds are rather consistent and there has been no real slowdown as the rounds go by, and all of this could very well pay off as Morono is a plodding mess with an awkward “baby-learning-to-walk” stance.
If Morono is to have a path of least resistance kind of fight, he needs to wrestle and look for submission because, on the feet, Rodriguez is more than willing to strike and exchange with anyone, and we believe he will strike his way to victory.
UFC Fight Night: Niko Price vs. Themba Gorimbo
Why Bet on Niko Price?
Price has always been an exciting fighter to watch, he is rarely in a boring fight and whilst he has previously been victim to some devastating losses, all of his fights have been absolute joys to watch.
With that said though, he absorbs quite a bit of damage when he fights, and whilst he has shown to make massive improvements in his offensive wrestling ability, we don’t know if that’s going to be enough to slow down the speeding hype train that is Themba Gorimbo.
Price is a veteran who has some solid wins over some big names like Means, Alex Oliveira, and Morono. However, we also feel like a lot of his losses have been by better strikers. He doesn’t seem to defend himself well against those who like to snipe from a distance and time short and sharp combinations.
Why Bet on Themba Gorimbo?
Gorimbo himself has showcased some incredible takedown defense when he fought Brahimaj a few months back. Even if he didn’t do anything massive on the ground, he broke through as a fighter who can use his wrestling.
We think Gorimbo is still finding his footing in the UFC. And this is his biggest challenge so far because Price has fought absolutely anyone and everyone in the division. If Gorimbo is unable to keep his calm and stick to his guns with his long attacks, we justdon’t know how he’s going to get past Price.
Final Betting Analysis: Niko Price vs. Themba Gorimbo
Now, the very good news for Gorimbo, at least in my opinion, is that he is a lot faster and fluid on the feet than Price. The latter’s defense seemingly looks to be his offensive output, and as long as Themba can shoot off his attacks in short bursts while maintaining a fair distance, he should be able to chip at the chin enough for the attritional damage.
UFC Fight Night: Clayton Carpenter vs. Lucas Rocha
Why Bet on Clayton Carpenter?
Carpenter is coming off a strong debut win over Ronderos last year, and he looked as good as he did when he fought on DWCS. The main thing we want to point out for him is that he is comfortable on the feet despite being a very good wrestler.
He seems to be extremely well trained and he is also not a very static target. He likes to utilize head movement and level changes to be hard to track when it comes to a head-hunting opponent.
Ultimately though, Carpenter excels on the ground, he mostly wants nothing more than to get the fight to the ground, but since he’s still growing in his career, we suspect we will see him get more comfortable on the feet.
Why Bet on Lucas Rocha?
Rocha is coming off a fairly decent DWCS performance, but it honestly did not come without an asterisk, and that is simply because it was scheduled for Bantamweight, despite originally being a Flyweight bout.
Rocha is a relatively well-rounded fighter who, despite facing some difficulty against Bittencourt, adapted well to the takedown threat. At the start of the second round, he landed an extremely well-timed right knee upon Bittencourt’s level change attempt, it was picture-perfect and honestly one of the cleanest knockouts on DWCS in a while.
Final Betting Analysis: Clayton Carpenter vs. Lucas Rocha
Rocha is facing a similar wrestling threat in Carpenter, but the very slight difference here is that Carpenter is a bit more well-rounded than Bittencourt and the takedowns often come from body locks so the threat of a knee to the chin is slightly mitigated.
Honestly,that’s probably the only way Carpenter will be able to successfully get a takedown since the shorter and stockier fighter could stuff a more traditional double leg/hip takedown. However, we expect him to get it done.
UFC Fight Night: CJ Vergara vs. Ramazan Temirov
Why Bet on CJ Vergara?
Vergara is a pretty exciting striker to watch, he is exceptionally quick on the feet and is so sharp with his kickboxing, but sometimes, due to his output, it leaves him open for takedowns.Since he is not a wrestler, he tends to succumb to takedowns a bit easily.
The good thing about Vergara is that he’s experienced the fast-paced action of UFC Flyweights. He has been in decent firefights and is always willing to meet his opponent in the middle and exchange strikes, but wedon’t know if that’s a good strategy when it comes to taking on a knockout artist like Temirov.
Why Bet on Ramazan Temirov?
Temirov has been on a tear recently, blasting his way through his team’s promotion, then Rizin. There’s certainly a lot of momentum for him coming into this fight. Now, all of the good things we’ve said about Temirov, we’ve pretty much said already. He’s heavy-handed, explosive, and a violent finisher.
All of this is great, but we have some very minor concerns. He gets hurt a lot and is a very reckless fighter who has barely any head movement, or technique on the feet.He is a finisher, someone who throws heavy and often, that’s all.
Final Betting Analysis: CJ Vergara vs. Ramazan Temirov
The good news for Vergara is that Temirov is not a wrestler, he is very, very heavy-handed and is willing to throw down and match his opponents’ tenacity. That could also become a problem because Vergara could be complacent on the feet and thus leave himself open for a barrage of strikes.
We are going to have to go with the newcomer here, as we see his power and aggression being a bit of a threat to Vergara, and since Vergara often wings his powerful leftovers, we think it exposes him to an explosive counterattack.
UFC Fight Night: Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
Why Bet on Jonathan Pearce?
Pearce is in a rough situation at the moment. He is on a tough losing streak coming off back-to-back losses against Onama and Brito, two relatively tough fighters.
Jonathan Pearce has always been a fantastic wrestler who fights at an extraneous pace, constantly looking for the takedown and often using his well-tuned kickboxing.
Volume and variance are the main things that are on the side of Pearce in this fight, whenever you see him fight he is not doing anything. He is constantly moving, feinting, throwing a jab or a leg kick, and level-changing, his excellent cardio and his variety of attacks allow him to just overwhelm his opponent.
Why Bet on Pat Sabatini?
Sabatini is an outstanding and high-level wrestler, that is his bread and butter. He doesn’t throw any strikes of necessary threat and he isn’t a crazy impressive or well-rounded MMA fighter. However, where he excels is in the wrestling department where he has showcased a whole lot of volume and sheer strength with his takedowns.
However, as much as he is an incredible wrestler with great grappling, we have a firm belief that he is going to be struggling a tiny bit against the striking and output on the feet from JSP.
Final Betting Analysis: Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
JSP is usually scrappy in getting out of bad positions, but it is that exact kind of positional change that could lead to Sabatini just flowing around him and finding his neck for submission. We think the chance of this submission is going to be in the second or third round where JSP’s cardio starts to take a hit if the fight is extremely wrestling/grappling-based.
However, with that said, on the flip side, Sabatini hasn’t won against someone like JSP, who has his moments that really showcase his well-roundedness and his incredible wrestling. We think he becomes a bit too vulnerable when he gets too wrestling-focused andthat’s what Brito capitalised on.
One way or the other, we believe Pierce will get the nod.
UFC Fight Night: Dan Argueta vs. Cody Haddon
Why Bet on Dan Argueta?
Argueta is someone who has struggled a whole lot in the past few years to ascertain himself as a UFC fighter. He has had a couple of wins here and there but he has never maintained a streak long enough to gain any traction in this rapidly moving era in which DWCS fighters are coming in droves, and this is going to be his third opponent of that kind in his career.
Argueta is mostly a wrestler who loves to look for takedowns in exceptionally high volume. It is obvious that he is going to use that wrestling skill set against the high-level boxer in Haddon, but we question whether or not it will be that successful.
Why Bet on Cody Haddon?
Haddon has looked really good in his DWCS fight and it looks like he has really adapted well for the sport. He looks for takedowns somewhat actively which tells me that he is more than comfortable in switching up styles in the fight. We think his background in boxing only gives him one thing to work on, and given his highly disciplined background in boxing, he should be fine learning and growing.
Final Betting Analysis: Dan Argueta vs. Cody Haddon
Haddon, he’s going to be the far crisper boxer and we think as long as he sticks and moves he should be able to just pick apart Argueta as the rounds go by.
We don’t know how good his takedown defense is at this point but we think he’s scrappy enough to avoid bad positions early.
UFC Fight Night: Cory McKenna vs. Julia Polastri
Why Bet on Cory McKenna?
McKenna is a bit hard to get a read on at the moment. When it comes to her striking, she’s good at fighting to get into range. She feints a lot, throws a lot of micro-movements out there, and little rabbit punches before throwing determined combinations, then, upon break, she’sgreat at raising the guard in time to absorb a returned strike.
However, she is at a significant reach disadvantage and we don’t know if her feinting into range is going to be an effective strategy throughout this fight. Polastri could just as easily glide out of the way and angle off for a counter.
Why Bet on Julia Polastri?
Polastri has yet to have a win in the UFC, but she has been a very game fighter. One thing that we’ve noticed is that she is a bit of a showman. Her defense is a bit iffy at times butshe’svery happy being in a fight, absorbing damage just to deal it straight back, and that makes us believe that she’s going to welcome the opening exchanges and combinations from McKenna.
Final Betting Analysis: Cory McKenna vs. Julia Polastri
if there is one thing that I love about Polastri, it’s that when she is building momentum, she doesn’t stop, as soon as a short combination of her lands, she steps the pedal to the metal and goes all in for more meaningful strikes. Considering how scary McKenna’s lack of striking defense can be, we believe Polastri will hurt McKenna and get the momentum on her side.
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Sean Sharaf
Why Bet on Junior Tafa?
Tafa is a striker who carries a substantial amount of power, but that is pretty much it. If this fight stays on the feet, it should be all Tafa.
That is where he is more comfortable with a boxing and kickboxing background, especially when you combine that with his massive power.
This is a freebie fight for him, so if he is to lose, it is likely he’d be cut from the promotion.
Why Bet on Sean Sharaf?
Sharaf looks like a flat-footed banger from the very little tape we could find. He has big power in his hands and knows how to throw a punch, but we were only able tofind footage of him against an old football player who was 1-2 as an amateur. The losses were two first-round KO’s. The other was an obese guy who we couldn’t quite make out. Legit 1 punch power it looks like though.
He does train at Xtreme Couture so he might have some wrestling in his back pocket.If he does not, he will not make it out of the first round against Junior.
Final Betting Analysis: Junior Tafa vs. Sean Sharaf
We’ve got a pair of fighters in this one who love to throw bombs and typically don’t go late into fights. Although with just 12 fights between the two, there isn’tall that big of a sample size.
Plus, with each having big KO power, you might see one or both of them playing it more safely than they typically would. If they are able to survive for just seven and a half minutes, we’ll get a great return.
However, we believe that Tafa should get the win.
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