The UFC 307 event comes close to 306, so we barely had any breathing room before another set of great fights from the matchmakers trying to keep things up to schedule.
This time, the Light Heavyweight king comes on a quick turnaround to fill in and put his belt on the line for the headliner against someone who some people and other fighters believe is a rushed challenger for the belt. However, we can overlook that, as we know there will always be action when the Champion, Alex “Poatan” Pereira is in the cage. We don’t mind seeing Khalil Rountree Jr. take his shot for UFC Gold.
It is also the time for Raquel Pennington to do her first defense of the bantamweight belt, and she is fighting the former champion, Julianna Peña, who is looking to retake the crown she once took from Amanda Nunes, and what a better spot to try to do so than this event’s co-main.
The King of Rio was also brought back to the cage in order to welcome a prospect in Mario Bautista to the big leagues during this main card, along with a possible title eliminator between Kayla Harrison and Ketlen Vieira.
Other big names like Kevin Holland, Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, Carla Esparza, Ovince St. Preux, and Tim Means are also all over this card, so this is bound to start well and get better.
Like it’s usual for numbered events, this one has five bouts on the main card and seven prelims, making 12 fights with a lot of talent, a majority of local fighters, and a good level overall.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info
| Alex Pereira 1.204 | Khalil Rountree Jr. 4.66 |
| Raquel Pennington 1.64 | Julianna Peña 2.315 |
| José Aldo 2.148 | Mario Bautista 1.709 |
| Kayla Harrison 1.067 | Ketlen Vieira 8.45 |
| Roman Dolidze 2.166 | Kevin Holland 1.685 |
| Stephen Thompson 2.792 | Joaquin Buckley 1.433 |
| Marina Rodriguez 2.332 | Iasmin Lucindo 1.594 |
| Ihor Potieria 1.249 | César Almeida 3.895 |
| Alexander Hernandez 1.584 | Austin Hubbard 2.36 |
| Carla Esparza 2.36 | Tecia Pennington 1.584 |
| Ovice St. Preux 3.155 | Ryan Spann 1.352 |
| Tim Means 2.592 | Court McGee 1.493 |
| When? | Saturday, October 5, at 6:00 pm ET, 5:00 pm CST, 4:00 pm MT, and 3:00 pm PT |
| Where? | Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah |
| Where can I watch it? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC 307: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Why Bet on Alex Pereira?
Pereira has been one hell of an active fighter, and rightfully so, since he’s rarely been injured or concussed, he is healthy enough to be this active.
Alex is near perfect as a kickboxer, the timing of his left hook is notorious, yes, but he also has great knowledge in setting up a finishing sequence by chipping another part of his target.
Poatan is a lot more technical than Rountree Jr. too, so we suspect that he is going to fight as he did against Jiri, stay on the outside, keep patient, look for openings, and capitalize on terrible defense.
Why Bet on Khalil Rountree Jr.?
Rountree Jr. is on a savage streak at the moment, and whilst he is a heavy underdog, we understand why there is chatter about him causing an upset here.
Khalil is a powerhouse and he even hits harder than Pereira. He throws with nasty intent and will likely do so again, even though if he throws heavy in this fight, fatigue will take place sooner due to the altitude. So, perhaps we are likely to see Rountree be a bit more calm and patient to ensure he has the cardio to keep going.
Final Betting Analysis: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Pereira attacks the lead leg of his opponents a whole lot which is going to be evident this weekend because Rountree Jr. is highly explosive. He uses his footwork to lunge himself forward to land his powerful attacks, and with a severe reach disadvantage, we suspect that Khalil is going to propel himself quite a lot during this fight.
Rountree Jr. is going to be lacking severely in the speed factor during this bout, and because he will be at the end of Pereira’s attacks, he is going to have to be explosive to gain distance. However, it’s the speed of Pereira’s strikes that catches his opponents off guard, like that head kick against Jiri, which we believe might repeat here.
UFC 307: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña
Why Bet on Raquel Pennington?
Pennington has really good boxing. It’s not a finishing skillset but it’s really cleanand she builds off her jab excellently, adding different following shots and combinations. She’s, no doubt, going to give Peña a fair bit of trouble on the feet.
In regards to wrestling, Pennington has rather great skills in that department, but she only uses it to mix up her attacks if she faces adversity on her feet. That is fine, and at least tells us she has responses to everything that can occur in the cage.
Why Bet on Julianna Peña?
Peña has looked dreadful recently, and she has only gotten this title chance because she wouldn’t shut up.
She has been inactive for two years. We don’t know what she’s done in her camp to improve, so we are flying blind. The only thing we know is that Pennington will be a fairly formidable foe on the feet, and we don’t think it’s easy to predict someone who has been on a two-year hiatus, and is now taking on a champion and at altitude.
Final Betting Analysis: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña
Pennington being a champion was not on our bingo card. However, after seeing how she matched the tenacity of Mayra Bueno Silva, and even defeated her with twice the amount of volume landed and strong counter-wrestling capabilities, we cannot help but think she is going to be a formidable foe for Pena.
We believe the champion will be defending her belt.
UFC 307: José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
Why Bet on José Aldo?
Aldo has always been a top-tier talent, we don’t give a flying rat on a crack pipe if his age is 38 or 48, the dude seemingly breaks the rules of age being a great restricting factor of fight performance. Also, if you see his last fight against Martinez, you realize that he has seemingly had a resurgence in his career.
The king of Rio has been working incredibly hard on his boxing. He is disgustingly fast and slick on the feet, and despite his age being a constant talking point, he still looks young and fights like he’s still in his prime.
As for the takedown defense, Aldo has recently fought Dvalishvili, and the biggest thing we got from that was how good his takedown defense is. The dude stuffed 16 of Merab’s takedowns and that’s a stat that will shine incredibly brightly in his career.
Why Bet on Mario Bautista?
Bautista is an excellent mixed martial artist who melds striking and wrestling remarkably. He is, no doubt, worthy of an attempt at Aldo but we don’t quite think he’s ready for how vicious his foe can be.
Bautista has excellent striking, he builds strongly off his jab and opening leg kick. The variance of target and attack is what makes him a ridiculously tricky fighter to deal with and we have a suspicion that Aldo is going to be a bit defensive in the first round, just so he can make his reads and get the adjustments in.
Final Betting Analysis: José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
Aldo has fought practically everyone worth mentioning, new and old. Bautista isn’t anything too spectacular style-wise, he’s someone who uses overwhelming activity and pressure to tear apart his opponents and just mixes in the martial arts well without taking a break in between sequences.
His cardio is incredible and that could make this a very challenging fight for Aldo, but the latter has the right tools to respond.
Bautista does not have the best striking defense. He protects himself with his overwhelming offense, and if Aldo settles in and starts being the aggressor, we suspect that the latter is going to pull ahead in the scorecards quickly. He could land his strong boxing combinations and even chop at the legs just to slow down the aggressive blitzes of Mario.
UFC 307: Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira
Why Bet on Kayla Harrison?
Harrison is one of those rare MMA Fighters who has accolades in other sports and organizations. Still, there is a major difference in takedown defense capabilities between Holm and Vieira.
Now, Harrison is a judoka specialist, an absolute freak of an athlete, incredibly strong, very good on the ground, and all that stuff that we already know, but we still have our concerns.
If she performs as strongly as she did against Holm this weekend, the odds are warranted and make sense. Still, we are concerned about the consistency of her performances moving forward because we suspect it isn’t going to take long for someone to derail the hype train.
Why Bet on Ketlen Vieira?
Vieira is a lot more well-rounded than her opponent. She has the right tools in her arsenal, at least statistically, to make this fight very interesting.
Ketlen is great at maintaining jab distance, she does not stick around in the pocket for too long, and outside of her power right punch, we don’t see her throwing anything too overzealously. We think there will be a lot of strong combination attempts with no more than three total strikes per combination because, the more that she throws, the more time Harrison has at level changing and timing her takedown.
Final Betting Analysis: Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira
Vieira’s takedown defense is awesome, sure, but she has yet to face someone with the wrestling and grappling accolades of Harrison. There are levels to this and we wonder if Vieira is going to be able to defend those takedowns and trips as effectively as she has done throughout her career.
We pick Harrison for this one, but we have a feeling that Vieira is going to put on a phenomenal fight and make the scorecards close if the fight goes that far.
UFC 307: Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
Why Bet on Roman Dolidze?
Dolidze has one clear path to victory here, and we all know what it is by now: wrestling. He has always been a great mixed martial artist who has been able to get the fight to the ground with relative ease.
This is by far the biggest advantage or even the only one he has over Holland. It would be greatly disappointing if he chose not to exploit the weakness of Holland’s takedown defense early.
Even if Dolidze cannot successfully transition to the ground, we think he can safely engage in clinch action against the cage as he did against Imavov. He is physically strong and often uses that strength in an imposing manner because, as long as he has a grip on his opponent, he essentially has free will to throw them around.
It is obvious that Dolidze must use that wrestling acumen to score points and frustrate someone who has a bit of a sketchy fight IQ.
Why Bet on Kevin Holland?
Holland is a very well-rounded fighter. He may have terrible takedown defense, but he’s also active on the ground, and even if we don’t see him submitting Dolidze, we think that he is explosive and scrappy enough to, at least, make things difficult for his rival while getting held.
Now, Kevin is notorious for his striking capabilities. He may not be the most technical fighter, but his unique reach advantage and ability to read the cage and flow freely without any proper setup have always been his strong suit.
He is so slick with mixing in his combinations, finding his target, and being very unorthodox, it is fair to say that he is rather difficult to prepare for when engaging on the feet. His opponents tend to be more reactionary than anything, and that is perhaps why a lot of them wrestle or try to wrestle him, to find the calm within the storm.
Final Betting Analysis: Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
There is no doubt in our mind that, for as long as this fight remains standing, Holland will be in the “zone” in which he can freely deal damage from the plethora of weaponry he has. We are concerned about his ability to defend the takedowns or get out of bad clinch positions against the cage.
Holland is likely to getthe win via knockout if he has worked on the takedown defense for this fight, and we are going to place our pick thinking he did.
UFC 307: Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley
Why Bet on Stephen Thompson?
Thompson is at this point in his career, an absolute legend. However, we need to get to the nitty and gritty and say that stylistically he is going to run into quite a few roadblocks.
First, unless he has severely changed his stance, he is going to get taken down at some point during this fight, and whilst Buckley isn’t some high-level wrestler, he still has the ferocious strength and power factor to ragdoll Thompson to an extent.
Thompson, whilst fighting at kicking distance, is an incredible fighter and if Buckley is unable to close that distance and penetrate that lead kick range, he is going to be on the receiving end of some lightning-quick kicks.
Why Bet on Joaquin Buckley?
Buckley impressed us with his win over Ruziboev, even though the latter is far from a great fighter. However, there were a lot of questions surrounding Buckley’s ability to adapt to a larger fighter, and he did well despite the size discrepancy.
Joaquin has one main way to win this bout, and that’s to wrestle and be the more diverse fighter. That is because, even if Buckley is unable to get that takedown, he still has the toolset and the skills to pin Thompson against the cage, effectively nullifying the ranged attacks that the latter ultimately relies on to deal damage.
Final Betting Analysis: Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley
Our primary concern for Buckley is how sloppy he strikes inside the pocket. He can be viciously wild at times and Thompson is a freakish sniper with his counters, so we expect Buckley to be caught by a piston straight upon entering the range if he fights cautiously.
If that is the case, then we also predict that Buckley is going to crotch-sniff until he recovers just enough to drive into a proper takedown attempt. Either way, the puzzle for Buckley is how to properly penetrate the ranged defenses of Thompson without being caught by a repercussive counter.
We think, thatas soon as Thompson hits that black line inside the cage, we are going to see Buckley start to shoot with his wrestling before Thompson uses his lateral movement to try and regain center control.
UFC 307: Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo
Why Bet on Marina Rodriguez?
Marina is a very, very good Muay Thai striker who is rather methodical with her approach to fighting. Nothing is ever thrown without proper setup and proper range, so she is quite comfortable in any striking scenario unless said striking scenario involves fighting against a highly tenacious and violent fighter, which Lucindo is.
Rodriguez has a history of struggling against fighters who mix in takedowns well. We are likely to see her struggle against Lucindo’s wrestling to an extent.
Why Bet on Iasmin Lucindo?
Lucindo is only a few fights deep into the UFC, but she has looked near flawless during her stint. Her most impressive win was against Karolina Kowalkiewicz, in which Lucindo was a lot more meaningful in her strikes and her takedowns were a major difference-maker as she was able to deal some significant damage on the ground against the veteran.
At this moment, we don’t quite know where the ceiling for Lucindo is because, at the moment, it seems with every win she grows to be a bigger and bigger threat to the division. Lucindo’s striking is also a bit of a highlight for us as she is great at dealing damage through short yet clean combinations.
Whilst we still believe Rodriguez is skilled enough on the feet to challenge Lucindo, once the latter mixes in those takedowns, we don’t think Marina will be able to keep up with the variations of attack that her rival is capable of.
Final Betting Analysis: Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo
Rodriguez is likely to be most successful at range where she can use her teeps and long punching combinations to keep Lucindo at bay. However, with how tenacious the latter can strike, especially early on, we don’t know if Marina will have the right tools to defeat her rival.
Lucindo is most likely going to look like the faster and fresher fighter if she employs her wrestling and if Rodriguez is unable to defend the takedowns.
We expect the Brazilians to give us an excellent fight, but Lucindo should get the nod.
UFC 307: Ihor Potieria vs. César Almeida
Why Bet on Ihor Potieria?
Potieria is one of those fighters who has shown glimpses of promise but only stumbles flat on his face in failure, much like how a baby makes their first steps.
Potieria looked like he was going to find his stride when he won against Bryczek, only to get caught in a submission.
We don’t see Potieria being successful against Almeida on the feet, as he is going to be fighting an uphill battle if he chooses to exchange. He is not going to have a great time unless he uses overwhelming and confusing volume, that is, chaotic combinations and ugly strikes.
Why Bet on César Almeida?
Almeida is coming off a tough loss against Kopylov, but it was a smart way for his rival to fight (wrestle) and we guess it should be expected for a kickboxer to struggle a little bit on the ground.
The fear for Almeida stems from how easily he got taken down, and perhaps Potieria and his team are able to read that deficiency and adapt accordingly.
Almeida is quite standard as a kickboxer. We don’t see him as overly technical, he is just very accurate and times his attacks well, he doesn’t waste time trying to do anything too special or funky. It’s all textbook strikes that are well-placed and timed and that’s practically all you want in a veteran kickboxer.
Final Betting Analysis: Ihor Potieria vs. César Almeida
If Almeida can keep this fight standing, we expect nothing but for him to excel and shoot ahead in the damage criteria of the scorecards, or even get an early finish because Potieria does not take punches well.
Potieria is ultimately a can crusher, he has built his career in destroying 0-0 fighters and the like. So, for him to face someone like Almeida who has fought diligently throughout his career to get to this moment, it’s a bit wonky.
We expect César to getthe clear victory.
UFC 307: Alexander Hernandez vs. Austin Hubbard
Why Bet on Alexander Hernandez?
Hernandez has always been a brilliant kickboxer to watch, his ability to string together combinations and deal damage from numerous angles has made him a challenge for anyone on the feet.
Hernandez’s footwork and movement alone could be a great dissuading factor in Hubbard approaching for a takedown. His low stance, his stance switches, and his confidence in himself has been a shining example of growth.
We can even say that his wrestling defense has been improving exponentially, as we saw him do relatively well to at least mitigate the positional advances that Jackson tried to accomplish.
Why Bet on Austin Hubbard?
Hubbard has had some success recently with a win against Figlak, although it was not without some adversity. It’s that adversity that concerns us because, if Hubbard is unable to get any takedowns, he is going to be chewed up on the feet by the Factory X fighter.
The fact that Hubbard only had three out of seven takedowns be successful with only 40 seconds of control time tells us that, even if he is okay at throwing a relentless amount of wrestling output if his opponent is scrambly enough, it’s wasted energy. Given how Hernandez was quick at defending takedowns or fighting to get back to his feet, we have a feeling that he is going to be a tougher challenge to keep down than Figlak was.
Now, Hubbard had a full camp leading to this fight, but the only thing he has going for him is cardio and conditioning. We have doubts that Austin is adding anything to his arsenal since he has always been a wrestler, so all Hernandez realistically needs to be concerned about is the takedown threat.
Final Betting Analysis: Alexander Hernandez vs. Austin Hubbard
The biggest problem that we see Hernandez face against Hubbard is the wrestling. The reason is that the former struggles a bit against fighters who can mask their takedowns behind overwhelming pressure on the feet, and if Hubbard utilizes heavy pressure and never lets Hernandez settle into his strikes, it could be a long night for him.
We believe this will be the case.
UFC 307: Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington
Why Bet on Carla Esparza?
Esparza is primarily a wrestler and grappler who builds her attacks and damaging moments from the ground. She is not exactly a high-level striker by any stretch, she’s rather acceptable on the feet and only uses her striking to open her opponent up to takedown attempts.
Carla’s trouble to deal with for this fight is finding the takedown through Pennington’s great defense.
Why Bet on Tecia Pennington?
Pennington has always been a fun fighter to watch. Remember, we’re talking about Tecia here, we have a lot more things to say about Raquel, but she has always been a fighter who throws a whole lot of volume and is a machine when it comes to utilizing her cardio and overwhelming her opponent.
Tecia shouldn’t have too much of a problem with Esparza unless the latter has upgraded her stand-up striking ability because, for the most part, all Pennington needs to be worried about is the takedowns, the transitions to the ground, and maybe the clinch and setups.
Final Betting Analysis: Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington
Pennington’s primary concern during this fight should be the grappling of Esparza. It is her bread and butter and she is very comfortable on the ground in any position, with a preference of top control so she can set up her submissions.
Pennington’s striking is really good and comes in a whole lot of volume so if Esparza is unable to even get the fight to the ground, the former is going to deal a significant amount of damage.
Distance is key for Pennington here, and since she has a sizable advantage on the feet in terms of sheer speed and volume, we will probably see a lot of flurries and blitzes from distance followed by resets, so the same sequence could be repeated.
UFC 307: Ovice St. Preux vs. Ryan Spann
Why Bet on Ovice St. Preux?
OSP is 41 years old but is coming off a career-saving win over Nzechukwu. However, it felt like his rival wasn’t able to step on the gas, and we think St. Preux made the most of it and took over with the volume.
OSP is still a strong competitor. He is quite diverse with his range of attacks and formidable on the ground, but we don’t trust his chin’s durability, especially since Spann is a strong power puncher.
Why Bet on Ryan Spann?
Spann’s losing streak is pretty special, he lost to Krylov by submission a little under 1.5 years ago. Then, a fairly competitive back-and-forth against Smith led to a split decision loss. Then, much more recently, he lost to a KO against Guskov, a heavy-hitting Russian who made short work of him.
Ryan is a bit of a kill-or-be-killed fighter at the moment. He has a high chance of putting OSP away with his power, but outside of that, there’s not much else he could excel at that would make this tricky for his rival.
Spann should hold the advantage. The jabs are going to be lightning-quick, and we think that the fact that he is on a losing streak will make him more dangerous in the first round. He is going to be eager to get his hands going, to disrupt the rhythm of the veteran, and he is, no doubt, going to be hungry for a win.
Final Betting Analysis: Ovice St. Preux vs. Ryan Spann
This fight is pretty much a veteran with a wide variety of ways to win versus someone who has a legitimate puncher’s chance to put him away.
Either OSP outstrikes or takes down Spann, potentially finding a submission or just utilizing ground and pound, or the latter gets in his face early and lands his powerful boxing combinations, potentially putting him away in the first or second round.
We believe that Spann’s hunger will show and he will be getting that needed victory.
UFC 307: Tim Means vs. Court McGee
Why Bet on Tim Means?
Means has a tiny bit of pep in his step with his career. Even if he is indeed coming off a KO loss against Medic, we think it’s fair to say that he can still be a very dangerous opponent for anyone despite his age.
Tim has always been a vicious striker who isn’t afraid to make the fight gritty. He loves to get into his opponents’ faces and deal damage through strong kicks or clinch attacks. Means is forever going to be an exciting fighter to watch.
Why Bet on Court McGee?
McGee is dangerous, but the danger mostly stems from how he could potentially shut down Means on the ground. He is a fairly good wrestler and often mixes in the martial arts quite well.
The only problem we have with McGee is how chinny he can be. He is fairly susceptible to getting hurt on the feet and with howflexible Means’ knees and hips are. We can’t help but think that sooner or later during this fight he is going to look to land with his knees.
Now, the good news for McGee is that Means is a sketchy boxer. He does not have the best striking defense and so uses his clinch toolset to minimize offense coming his way instead of using his nonexistent head movement or shell to absorb and avoid damage.
Final Betting Analysis: Tim Means vs. Court McGee
Means is going to have a lot of success on the feet. The variance of his attacks and his aggression is something quite special to watch despite his age and exhausted career momentum. We believe that he will be the first one to initiate exchanges or striking sequences, with the only potential drawback being how quick McGee is at level changing or clinching for a slowdown.
If Means keeps this at range and does not risk any extended clinch position, we should see Tim Means pull ahead in the visuals as he digs more and more to the body and McGee’s guard becomes a bit lowered due to those vicious knees to the abdomen.
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