We are returning after an eventful UFC 303, but to leave again from Las Vegas for a fight night at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
This event has been going through a ton of details, as six of the fights that were previously set up for the card had to be canceled, including the original main event. So now, after the matchmakers made some magic while fixing fights around, we get a 12-bout fight card with a solid headliner.
The main event sees the comeback of the former female flyweight champion, Rose Namajunas, looking to get herself back in the title picture. However, she will be facing a strong contender in Tracy Cortes, who is coming from an 11-match win streak, but is likely taking a big leap in competition now.
We are getting an interesting co-main event as Santiago Ponzinibbio faces Muslim Salikhov as they both try to make their way up in the Welterweight division in a clash that is likely not going to get to the final bell.
With 4 other excellent main card fights including names like Drew Dober, and Christian Rodriguez, along with other 6 prelim clashes that have a ton of up-and-comers, the event looks promising despite the issues.
We have 12 fights to go through, and this event is going to be quite fun from start to finish, making it excellent both for the casuals and the veteran fans who are looking forward to getting some exciting performances.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info
When:
Saturday, July 13, at 7:00 pm ET, in Denver, Colorado, United States
Moneyline odds
Rose Namajunas 1.464 / Tracy Cortez 2.814
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1.616 / Muslim Salikhov 2.296
Drew Dober 2.001 / Jean Silva 1.808
Gabriel Bonfim 1.294 / Ange Loosa 3.555
Christian Rodriguez 1.444 / Julian Erosa 2.754
Cody Brundage 2.437 / Abdul Razak Alhassan 1.56
Joshua Van 1.498 / Charles Johnson 2.601
Jasmine Jasudavicius / Fatima Kline
Montel Jackson 1.85 / Da’Mon Blackshear 1.93
Luana Santos 1.252 / Mariya Agapova 3.905
Josh Fremd 1.936 / Andre Petroski 1.835
Evan Elder 1.23 / Darrius Flowers 4.2
Where can I watch it?
UFC Fight Pass
UFC Fight Night: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
Why Bet on Rose Namajunas?
Namajunas thrives at high altitudes, training alongside Gaethje. We believe that due to that 5 round experience she has had previously, she is going to just get better and better as the rounds go on.
The problem is that her corner stifles her ability to adjust. We all know how terrible the corner work has been previously, and we are just hopeful that they at least tell her to do the right things.
Namajunas is coming off a fairly competitive win against Ribas, and whilst she did face some adversity with the takedowns, it was clear that she is good enough on the ground to know how to stand up without over-exertion.
Namajunas is exceptional everywhere the fight goes and does have a lot of advantages over Cortez.
Why Bet on Tracy Cortez?
Cortez is a tough fighter to deal with though, and there will always be a danger of takedowns from her. However, outside of that, we don’t see much of a threat from her that Namajunas is not ready for.
She is not a match for Rose on the feet, as the latter creates so many different looks and feints that it could easily overwhelm the senses of Cortez, making her unsure when to shoot for a takedown.
Cortez could clinch fight, as she does have quite a bit of oompf in her punches, and the clinch is an opening position for a takedown. Then again, the footwork and movement of Namajunas are going to make her difficult to track down, and if you frustrate a wrestler, they start to kind of lose it a bit in the cage and the frustration grows into wild punches and other attempts, and that’s a bit of a risk at altitude.
Cortez is also coming into this fight as a late replacement, although it’s only a week or two notice so perhaps she’s at least a little bit prepared. Still, you need a full camp to prepare for Rose at elevation.
Final Betting Analysis: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
Cortez is going to wrestle in this fight, and the longer the fight takes place on the ground, the more time Cortez has to work on Namajunas and get into better positions for ground and pound.
The range that Namajunas fights will be pretty damn important here since she relies a lot on her long teep kicks and her quick boxing combinations. Cortez isn’t exactly someone who strikes well at range, she likes to dirty box in the pocket and deal damage then, so as long as Rose fights at kicking range, she should be in firm control of the fight throughout its duration.
The other thing that plays into the favor of Namajunas is her footwork. She is so light on the feet she just dances around her opponent, switching stance and changing angles very quickly, it is going to be frustrating for Cortez to keep up with her for 3 rounds, let alone the final two main event rounds.
Expect the former Champion to win here as she tries to make her way back to title contention.
UFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
Why Bet on Santiago Ponzinibbio?
Ponzinibbio is coming off a brutal loss to Kevin Holland. Even though that would have been a tough fight for anyone, he at least had a year to recover and get back into the groove of things before taking on Salikhov.
Santiago has always been known for his relentless pace and pressure. During his prime he was a nightmare to deal with, constantly in his opponent’s face, throwing volume at high speed and with a fair bit of power.
Nowadays he has slowed down a touch most likely due to age and wear + tear, and now he is facing someone who is a very dangerous kickboxer but with a shoddy chin.
Why Bet on Muslim Salikhov?
Salikhov is still a very dangerous fighter to deal with, his explosive speed with that spinning heel kick is still phenomenal, and he is so damn good at smashing the legs of his opponents early. He is methodical in his approach, but we don’t know if being methodical is the right approach when fighting Ponzinibbio.
On one hand, Salikhov knows how to break down his opponents, his leg kicks against Brown were the right thing to do but he just got caught with a clean 1-1-2.
The one thing we don’t trust is Salikhov’s preference to shell over moving and evading, and he tends to cover up instead of getting out of the way. That’s not exactly a good defense for someone like Ponzinibbio, who is more than happy enough to keep the strikes going to make sure that he is putting on a relentless torrent of volume.
Final Betting Analysis: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
This is going to most likely be a battle of who has the more durable chin since both fighters love to stand and throw heavy strikes. We believe that Ponzinibbio is going to have a bit of a speed advantage which plays nicely with his reach and height. Salikhov has had problems with that before, as proven when he fought and lost to Brown.
Ponzinibbio is going to find success since he does well with long-ranged straight attacks, and if you combine that with his pressure and his notorious pace, you have a highly dangerous opponent for Salikhov. Especially, since Santiago’s cardio tends to hold up relatively well in the long run.
UFC Fight Night: Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva
Why Bet on Drew Dober?
Dober is coming off a tough but fairly competitive fight against Moicano. We mean, he fought like he usually does; very heavy hands, a lot of damage dealt on the feet, but also quite a bit absorbed on that position.
Drew has always been a kill-or-be-killed fighter. He has a great output on the feet with an incredible hunger for a finish, but that comes at the cost of his chin being exposed as he lets his hands go. He does not have a whole lot of defense.
Dober needs to make this fight messy, because the clean it is, the more time it leaves for Silva to set up his attacks. Jean comes from Fighting Nerds, who may have picked up some defensive openings that his rival has. Whether it’s a static guard or the naked level changes that could make a knee up the middle a vicious counter, Dober must overwhelm Silva, make it gritty, and rely on his power to put him away.
Why Bet on Jean Silva?
Silva is coming off a ridiculously clean uppercut KO over Charles Jourdain, someone we rated fairly highly to win that fight.
It wasn’t just high level, but it was well calculated and it’s clear he is well trained. He is going to have a lot of advantages on the feet and he is highly technical, counting with a lot of weapons that could potentially expose the weaknesses of Dober. For example, the middleman attacks or counters as he tends to rush in with his chin in the air.
Silva may be coming off a camp but he was relatively uninjured and whilst this fight is taking place at Lightweight, that just means less of a weight cut for him. In addition, he fought at 155 before so it shouldn’t be too much of an issue.
Final Betting Analysis: Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva
We highly suspect that Silva and his extensive kickboxing background is going to have the advantage on the feet.
He has the iconic Fighting Nerd stance where he stands wide and has very light footwork, bouncing in and out of range. It’s that kind of movement that is going to lure Dober into striking first, and once Drew throws something, that’s typically when we see Jean start his attacks before the rival has a chance to reset and retaliate.
Dober usually has great leg kicks off his back foot, but that is going to be a bit of a challenge since Silva has his lead foot turned inward. He has the checking angle in place, which also plays into his front and back movements. It’s a very tricky stance to attack, which puts Silva as our pick to win the fight here.
UFC Fight Night: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa
Why Bet on Gabriel Bonfim?
Bonfim is coming off a tough loss against upset machine Nicolas Dalby, and honestly, he is a good fighter to lose to. Gabriel is known for his grappling and submission threat, and that confidence in his grappling ability makes him feel very comfortable throwing hands early. He is very good at stringing together strong combinations and a strong leg kick.
The problem that we see over and over is his amateurish defense. He leaves his chin in the air, doesn’t have a high guard, and uses a lean back instead of an angle shift to avoid strikes.
His grappling is outstanding, he is one hell of a BJJ specialist and as soon as any of his fights go to the ground, he is in his element, regardless of position.
Now, Bonfim is going to have to take this fight to the ground, as we don’t see him being successful on the feet, not with how aggressively Loosa starts his fights.
Why Bet on Ange Loosa?
Loosa has had a relatively successful run in the UFC, with strong wins over McKee and Fletcher. Ange is a very, very strong wrestler who is very comfortable striking on the feet, often using his strikes to open up a level-change opportunity, which he is stupendously quick to do. It is high-level stuff that he displayed in that fight against McKee.
Loosa is all about offense and his weaponry comes from his aggression. We already saw some gaps in that style when he fought Battle and was being somewhat touched up by the more technical fighter.
Final Betting Analysis: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa
As long as the fight remains on the feet, Loosa has a fairly solid chance to land a potential fight-ending punch, as we just don’t trust the striking defense of Bonfim.
Any wrestling from Loosa is going to be risky for him due to the submission ability of Bonfim. Whilst we have very, very much been an advocate of better wrestlers defeating great grapplers, we think that any exchange on the ground is still going to be highly dangerous against Bonfim.
Now, the one thing Loosa needs to be mainly concerned about is the front kick up the middle. It is something that Bonfim loves to throw, as proven when he threw it a few times against Dalby. Loosa’s stand is very low and grounded so any sort of up-the-middle attack is likely to be effective.
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Julian Erosa
Why Bet on Christian Rodriguez?
Rodriguez is coming off a grueling fight against a highly aggressive wrestler in Isaac Dulgarian, and honestly, that was the perfect test for him. Christian was constantly moving on the ground, never accepting a position and we think we are going to see him improve further.
Rodriguez has a ridiculously good jab, it is his foundation strike from which he builds combinations, and once he feels the availability of combinations, he lets his hands go a lot more. We believe the main combination he is going to use is a jab-uppercut.
Why Bet on Julian Erosa?
Erosa is coming off a beautiful guillotine choke win over Ricardo Ramos, and it just reminds us that he is dangerous in every aspect of the sport. He has the power to put people away on their feet, and he certainly has the grappling and submission ability to submit his opponents.
Erosa’s main asset as a fighter comes from his ability to mix up his attacks exceptionally well. He uses almost every single strike one can imagine to deal damage, and whilst he often risks his defense for an onslaught of offense, it works out in his favor for the most part.
Final Betting Analysis: Christian Rodriguez vs. Julian Erosa
If Erosa does not level change, he has a bit of an advantage on the feet in terms of variance of attacks. It is going to be a bit of a puzzle for Rodriguez to figure out, although we think that the pace that he fights is going to be a perfect answer for his reach and height disadvantage.
It would be interesting to see if Rodriguez is the one to initiate any wrestling here, though. Erosa has decent BJJ but not that great takedown defense, and Christian has been relatively difficult to submit. So, unless Julian locks in an instinctive guillotine choke upon receiving a takedown, we don’t see him being too much of an issue on the ground for Rodriguez.
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Why Bet on Cody Brundage?
Brundage is a fighter that was fed to the wolf that is named Bo Nickal. Whilst he had some mild success very early on in the fight, Nickal was pretty much winning each minute thereafter.
Brundage has a possible advantage on the ground, although we don’t have that much confidence with his grappling since Alhassan himself has a pretty decent ground game.
Brundage is a dog, though. He doesn’t go down that easily and whilst he might be outmatched on the feet, he is probably going to feed into the crowd and look to throw hands himself, he is a hometown fighter and tends to have that “don’t give a f-” attitude.
Why Bet on Abdul Razak Alhassan?
Alhassan is coming off a tough loss against Pyfer, in which we just saw Pyfer bulldoze through him on the ground. We don’t think we are going to see Brundage utilize that same explosiveness.
Abdul is going to have to be the aggressor in this fight to be the winner because, if he lets Brundage pressure him and comfortably close the gap, we are going to just see Alhassan get taken down over and over again. Even if he has good instincts to stand back up quickly, that’s still wasted energy on something that could be avoided.
Alhassan has a thunderous right hand, he throws it with very, very nasty intent but he is also a headhunter, so we don’t know if that right straight to the head is going to be too smart of a move considering Brundages’ wrestling tendencies.
Final Betting Analysis: Cody Brundage vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Brundage’s only chance to win this fight is to take it to the ground, as we do not see him out-striking Alhassan or being the more powerful puncher.
The first round is going to be Alhassan’s most dangerous moment. He is going to want to finish the fight very quickly, so, if Brundage can survive the potential storm in the first round, he could glide to a decision win depending on if Alhassan fatigues in those other two rounds.
Alhassan’s power is going to stun Brundage a bit here, and we have to add that his ability to stand back up after getting takedown is relatively good.
With Brundage not being as explosive as Pyfer, and those explosive takedowns being the primary reason Alhassan got taken down, we see this as a recipe for a victory for the latter.
UFC Fight Night: Joshua Van vs. Charles Johnson
Why Bet on Joshua Van?
Van is ridiculously well-rounded, his boxing is quick and snappy, and even though he is coming up against someone taller and longer. We think he is going to have the more slick boxing compared to Johnson’s.
Now, the problem with Van is his starting speed, he kind of starts every fight at a somewhat leisurely pace. He advances and throws combinations, but his reaction time is a bit slow and he eats most of his shots early on, and if Johnson dictates the pace early and is the aggressor, we can see the momentum staying on the side of Johnson.
Why Bet on Charles Johnson?
Johnson has been on the receiving end of taking prospect after prospect, and it’s not any different this time around as he is once again facing another prospect in Van.
Charles surprised us back on the St Louis card when he defeated Jake Hadley, he did succumb to the pressure a tiny bit in the first round. However, after that pep talk from his coach during the break before the second, he was in complete control of the fight.
Johnson needs to start quickly in this fight to just overwhelm Van’s ability to read his opponent’s attacks. Johnson does that relatively well by playing with the lead hand and there is a lot of hand-fighting involved when he fights, although we are not so sure if that’s going to be too prevalent due to how tight the guard is on Van. Either way, he also has a piston of a right hand that he uses very, very well, and it’s the same right hand that rattled the chin of Hadley.
Final Betting Analysis: Joshua Van vs. Charles Johnson
We still believe that Van is going to have to fix that slow first-round pace to get a win this weekend because, the more labored and slow a fight is, the more Johnson can get off those teeps and leg kicks of his to set up a right straight.
The only downside for Johnson is the fact that he gives too much space to his opponents when they are the aggressors. This was true when Hadley fought Johnson, and it will most likely be true when Van pushes the pace.
He tends to retreat with a high shell when a short combination is thrown his way. We think that, if Van adds to those combinations, he may lower the guard and get caught with something at the end of that sequence.
UFC Fight Night: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline
Why Bet on Jasmine Jasudavicius?
Jasudavicius is a surprising underdog this time, but given how good Kline has looked, it somewhat makes a little bit of sense. Jasmine is coming off a strong win against Cachoeira, and whilst that’s not exactly the best fighter to get a win over, it’s a victory regardless.
Jasudavicius is great at pressuring her opponent, it has been a major role in her skillset to get her wins previously, that non-stop action and pace, despite the effectiveness of said attacks, she is constantly making her opponents retreat.
Why Bet on Fatima Kline?
Kline has popped onto our radar just a couple of days ago when there was a discussion surrounding her. Honestly, after watching the tape of her last two fights, we are very, very impressed.
Her striking is pretty damn quick and snappy, and they come in bunches too, which is going to blind and freeze Jasudavicius since she does not have a lot of head movement.
We don’t think Kline has knockout power, but the speed and volume could be enough to wear on Jasudavicius. We like Kline’s wrestling and grappling, it’s clear that she is very well trained and she has participated in tournaments like the ADCC, IGC, and recently Fury Pro.
Final Betting Analysis: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline
Jasudavicius has a bit more of an advantage in terms of preparation, as she was getting ready to fight Araujo. So, she might have acclimated a bit easier to the altitude than Kline, but outside of that, there are a few things that we are worried about with Jasmine.
Kline’s focus when she fights is taking the fight to the ground and looking for a submission. We just don’t know how she is going to do against a well-prepared Jasudavicius at altitude as any failed grappling attempt will wear on her gas tank.
The other thing we don’t like, although it’s practically unavoidable for short-notice fighters, is the level of competition difference. Jasudavicius is a fairly high-level fighter with a lot of experience behind her in the UFC, and from what we saw, Kline’s opponents on CFFC weren’t that great, so the step up in competition is massive here, and it might cost her the win.
UFC Fight Night: Montel Jackson vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
Why Bet on Montel Jackson?
Jackson is coming off a very slick KO win over Rani Yahya, but before we go deep in the reeds about how beautiful that knockout was, we have to admit we were mostly impressed by his ability to counter-grapple.
The way he floated around Rani on the ground, was beautiful to witness and just cemented his wrestling and grappling capabilities. Now, that knockout was well read and well timed by him, mostly because of the repetitious combinations coming from Yahya, thesame movement, speed, andaction, and it was a clean one-two that put the rival down.
Why Bet on Da’Mon Blackshear?
Blackshear is a bit of a sloppy starter. He is great offensively with his kicks and forward movements, but the one glaring thing we notice every time he fights is that he gets countered off his attacks quite a bit. That’s due to the lack of defense after throwing something as he throws without care for what’s coming his way. The last time, it was clear that Bautista had figured out the counter timing early.
Now, Blackshear has great wrestling, a very strong grip, and is comfortable taking fights to the ground. However, we don’t think he is going to find too much success against Jackson in the wrestling department.
On the feet, we can see Blackshear being the aggressor, but running into the same kind of combination that Yahya ran into, a slick one-two down the pipe, or even just a straight right counter off an attack.
Final Betting Analysis: Montel Jackson vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
That one-two that got him his previous victory is going to be in the back pocket of Jackson throughout this fight too. He loves to use it and, thanks to his reach advantage, as well as his propensity to fight at his range well, we think we are going to see another well-timed one-two against Blackshear this weekend.
The other thing Jackson has in his back pocket is going to be his wrestling. He had career aspirations to join the Olympic wrestling team, he has a very strong foundational wrestling background and we see that when he fights, he is very quick to stuff takedowns or get takedowns.
UFC Fight Night: Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova
Why Bet on Luana Santos?
Santos is coming off back-to-back wins against Egger and Miller, with her most recent one being against Egger by way of a fairly impressive decision.
We were mostly impressed with that fight because Santos showcased her grappling ability well, controlling Egger somewhat easily on the ground which isn’t an easy thing to do since she has great grappling.
Santos has questionable striking. It’s quite powerful and comes with a lot of impacts, but it looks so damn slow and labored, so she needs to grapple in this fight. There is no other clear way to victory for her other than to grapple and ensure that the fight remains on the ground.
The transitions from standing to ground grappling are going to be fascinating to watch since Santos has very, very good Judo and often uses her throws when she fights, so keep an eye out for any hip tosses or scarf hold drag downs.
Why Bet on Mariya Agapova?
Agapova has been away for nearly two years and is coming off back-to-back submission losses by Robertson and Moroz. Mariya has always been a relatively strong striker with quite a lot of power and ferocity but her glaring issues stem from her inability to defend takedowns.
Agapova is mostly a headhunter as well, she primarily targets the head with her strikes which often is a good thing, until she gets taken down by a well-timed level change.
Now, the fun thing about her is that she doesn’t let up the offense one bit, no matter what position she’s in she is more than willing to keep punching. Whether it’s defending takedowns or if she’s in a strong position herself, she always deals damage, and we know how important damage is nowadays despite position, so that’s probably going to be her main advantage in this fight, her ability to deal damage in any position.
Final Betting Analysis: Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova
Any sort of grappling or wrestling is going to Santos’s advantage here, and we don’t think she is going to play with Agapova much on the feet since she has good kickboxing.
We don’t think Santos is going to look as fresh as she did in the third as she did in the first due to altitude, so really a quick submission is probably going to be her goal during this fight. She has excellent BJJ and it has been a bit of a “weakness” of Agapova’s since her takedown defense has been terrible throughout her UFC career.
UFC Fight Night: Josh Fremd vs. Andre Petroski
Why Bet on Josh Fremd?
Fremd is coming off a tough loss against Kopylov, in which he got struck by a ridiculously clean liver punch which effectively ended the fight. Josh has not been in any positive highlight during his UFC career, there have not been great wins or excellent performances to remember him by. His wins against Dumas and Pickett are strong but since Dumas is dreadful and Pickett is just as bad, if not worse, it is hard to gauge how high the ceiling is for him.
We think we are going to see Fremd stretch those wrestling muscles and show us what he can accomplish on the ground, but we don’t know if he can contend with the sheer volume and tenacity coming his way.
Why Bet on Andre Petroski?
Petroski has always been a bit of a highlight fighter for us, not so much because of his style, but he is a memorable fighter from TUF a few years back.
Andre is coming from a strange loss against Jacob Malkoun, and honestly, he did relatively well up until that odd moment. Petroski is always known for his instant wrestling, he does not waste any time on the feet, almost all of his opponents know what to expect and it’s clear from the get-go that he wants to wrestle, his pressure and pace are pretty great and he is more than comfortable enough to just maul his opponents with a ridiculously high volume of takedowns and non-step forward pressure.
Final Betting Analysis: Josh Fremd vs. Andre Petroski
Fremd has a height and reach advantage, but there is not a whole lot of evidence of him using it to his benefit since he is primarily a grappler.
Petroski’s striking is rather rudimentary, it’s certainly something he does to close in the distance. Perhaps raises the guard or shell of his opponent so the transitions to the takedowns are more available, but he is not known for his knockout power or his ability to string together combinations.
This is honestly going to play out one way. Petroski is going to be in full control of this fight, landing takedown after takedown, maybe with a severe drop-off in cardio due to the altitude.
UFC Fight Night: Evan Elder vs. Darrius Flowers
Why Bet on Evan Elder?
Evan Elder is a tough, high-volume striker coming off two strong showings against Nazim Sadykhov and Genaro Valdez.
It has been almost a year since Elder has fought, which turned out to be a decisive decision win over Genaro Valdez. But in just under half a week’s notice, he will take this fight, and he does seem like the favorite by far.
Why Bet on Darrius Flowers?
Darrius Flowers is a decent striker who has been out-grappled in each of his UFC fights and has also shown questionable cardio. For the third time, he will have a chance to log his first UFC win.
He lost to Jake Matthews (via submission) at UFC 291 and Michael Johnson (via decision) on Feb. 10. so now, he needs to make a big performance here or his UFC tenure might end.
Final Betting Analysis: Evan Elder vs. Darrius Flowers
A Fun Welterweight fight that was a last-minute addition to the card goes down here. We do like Elder in this one as we can see him having a striking and massive cardio advantage.
We can’t wait to see this one, as it is quite an interesting clash and it was a fun last-second addition to the card that will hype up the fight night.
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