This UFC Numbered Event has a LOT going on all at once… They decided to place a second numbered event in the same month, and this fight card simply DELIVERS.
For all fight fans, this will be a historic event, as this is the Return of Jon “Bones” Jones, and he is (Oddly Enough) coming back right into a Title shot in the Heavyweight Division, where he is doing his debut against the dangerous and dynamic striker Cyril Gane, as they fight for the Vacant UFC Heavyweight Strap.
UFC 285 main event is a banger, but we also have the UFC Female Flyweight strap on the line, as Valentina “The Bullet” Shevchenko takes on the Mexican Challenger, Alexa Grasso who tries to make history by both becoming the first Mexican female champion and dethroning such a dominant champion in Schevchenko.
This event has a total of 14 fights, with 5 on the Main event and 9 prelim fights, however, the card is stacked to the brim with talented fighters and known names.
This, on paper, could be one of the most exciting events of the year for 2023, and we are just starting in March.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane Betting Odds and Fight Card Picks – Info
When:
Saturday, March 4th, at 5:30 pm ET
Moneyline odds:
Jon Jones -169 / Ciryl Gane +133
Valentina Shevchenko -714 / Alexa Grasso +456
Geoff Neal +373 / Shavkat Rakhmonov -555
Mateusz Gamrot -238 / Jalin Turner +181
Jamie Pickett +781 / Bo Nickal -1666
Cody Garbrandt -175 / Trevin Jones +137
Derek Brunson +183 / Dricus Du Plessis -238
Viviane Araujo +102 / Amanda Ribas -125
Julian Marquez +126 / Marc-Andre Barriault -161
Ian Machado Garry -714 / Kenan Song +451
Mana Martinez +235 / Cameron Saaiman -322
Jessica Penne +227 / Tabatha Ricci -303
Farid Basharat -476 / Da’Mon Blackshear +334
Loik Radzhabov -277 / Esteban Ribovics +207
Where Can I watch it?
UFC 285: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
Why Bet on Jon Jones?
Jones, widely regarded as one of the greatest mixed martial artists of all time, will make his long-awaited debut in the heavyweight division after dominating the light heavyweight division for years.
He debuted in August 2008 against Andre Gusmao and picked up a unanimous decision victory.
Shortly after, “Bones” collected two wins over Stephen Bonnar and Jake O’Brien to extend his streak to three. However, in his fourth UFC bout, Jones suffered a disqualification loss to Matt Hamill in December 2009 due to illegal elbow strikes.
Jones continued his meteoric rise to the sport by scoring three straight stoppage wins over Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko, and Ryan Bader.
These victories earned him the right to challenge Mauricio Rua for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title in March 2011, and Jones maximized the opportunity, by TKOing Rua in the third round of their title showdown to become the youngest UFC champion in history at just 23 years old.
The fighter out of Rochester, New York, continued his dominant reign in the 205-pound division with eight successive title defenses against Quinton Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Vitor Belfort, Chael Sonnen, Alexander Gustafsson, Glover Teixeira, Daniel Cormier.
Before leaving the light heavyweight division for good, Jones added three more title defenses over Anthony Smith, Thiago Santos, and Dominick Reyes to cement his status as the greatest UFC Light Heavyweight Champion of all time.
Why Bet on Ciryl Gane?
“Bon Gamin” made his UFC debut in August 2019 and impressed quickly by submitting Raphael Pessoa in the opening round.
Gane followed it up with two more victories against Don’Tale Mayes and Tanner Bosser.
Because of these impressive wins, the Frenchman started a hype train behind him, which was tested when he faced and TKO’ed former heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos in December 2020.
The 32-year-old sustained his momentum by beating Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov unanimously in February and June 2021.
Those five straight wins under the promotion were enough for Gane to be pitted against UFC’s knockout king Derrick Lewis in August 2021 for the interim heavyweight title.
Following that interim title triumph, the Paris native fought his former sparring partner Francis Ngannou for the heavyweight unification title match in January 2021.
Unfortunately, he came up short against Ngannou, who outlasted him via unanimous decision and retained his coveted belt.
In his most recent fight, Gane headlined the first-ever UFC event in his home country, France, where he locked horns with Tai Tuivasa. “Bon Gamin” gave local fans victory by knocking out Tuivasa in the third round.
Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane Final Betting Analysis:
The fight is highly unpredictable because no one knows what Jones is going to look like after more than three years away from the competition.
It will be a massive match for both athletes because if Jones wins, he will stamp his status as the greatest MMA fighter of all time; meanwhile, if Gane gets the victory, he will be the first man to beat Jones in an MMA match legitimately.
Stylistically, it will be a clash between two different fighting styles because Jones has a strong background in Greco-Roman wrestling and Gane parading his Muay Thai foundation, which is heavy on striking.
The key for Jones is for him to take the fight on the ground, as Gane had troubles in that aspect, evident in his loss to Ngannou.
On the other hand, Gane’s path to triumph is for him to stop the takedown attempts, impose his bigger body frame, and stay on the feet, where he can fully utilize his lethal striking combinations.
His welterweight-like agility and mobility will also play a significant role in keeping the distance between him and Jones, thus preventing a clinch battle with the former light heavyweight champion.
If Gane successfully avoids being taken down, it will be a long night for Jones as he can continuously pour on his powerful strikes.
This is going to be one exciting match, but we expect Ciryl Gane to take the victory in this highly anticipated fight.
UFC 285: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso
Why Bet on Valentina Shevchenko?
Shevchenko has ruled the women’s flyweight division with an iron fist since she won the title back in 2018.
Four finishes in seven fights have solidified her position as the greatest woman to ever fight in the flyweight division, but a victory over Alexa Grasso will add to her claims of being one of the greatest fighters to ever compete.
Shevchenko has looked pretty much untouchable in all of her fights.
Why Bet on Alexa Grasso?
Grasso will have her first title fight with the UFC, which for any fighter is undoubtedly an important career moment.
But beyond the personal milestone, Grasso (15-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC) will become the first Mexico-born woman to challenge for a UFC championship belt.
Grasso is unbeaten since moving up to 125 pounds. She’s racked up four consecutive wins, defeating notable names such as Viviane Araujo, Joanne Wood, Maycee Barber, and Ji Yeon Kim.
Although she’s shown a good ground game in her performances, both defensively and offensively speaking, Grasso has enamored fans and pundits with her technical boxing.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso Final Betting Analysis:
Grasso’s switch from strawweight to women’s flyweight in 2020 has turned out to be a fantastic move as she’s been able to showcase her skills without having to deal with a draining weight cut.
She’s now able to utilize her stellar boxing skills and underrated grappling and not have to worry about her cardio as much as before, which has helped her win four fights in a row en route to her title fights against Shevchenko.
Grasso will want to keep the fight standing, which is exactly where Shevchenko will want to keep it as well as she’ll be able to keep the Mexican at distance with a plethora of kicks.
If the fight hits the floor, Grasso has a very good ground game, but she most likely won’t be good enough to submit Shevchenko whose ground game is very underrated.
The challenger will give it everything she’s got, but Valentina should come away with a victory in this fight.
UFC 285: Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
Why Bet on Geoff Neal?
Neal rides into this fight as a major underdog, but with a two-fight win streak.
His performance against Vicente Luque last time out was the best of his career, a surgical dissection of a durable and dangerous knockout artist.
Neal is an excellent physical talent in his own right, and he’s hitting his stride just in time for a serious challenge.
He has some of the heaviest hands at 170 lbs.
A Southpaw kickboxer, Neal offensively likes to play the double threat game with his left kick and left hand, but he’s proven himself a slick counter-puncher as well.
Why Bet on Shavkat Rakhmonov?
Rakhmonov is a master of the sport in both combat Sambo and MMA.
In the cage, that translates to being dang good at just about everything.
He’s a nasty kickboxer with brutal knees and kicks, can overpower opponents with his wrestling, and excels at snatching up the neck in exchanges.
“Nomad” is a tremendously well-rounded finisher who seldom lets opponents survive to even the third round, and the great thing about being so well-rounded is that Rakhmonov can adjust his approach.
Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov Final Betting Analysis:
In this bout, Neal has to get aggressive.
Having good distance management isn’t enough against a wrestler like Rakhmonov — that skill needs to be elite for an outside striking game plan to work.
Instead, I’d like to see Neal working behind his straight punches and trying to back Rakhmonov up.
He can match Rakhmonov’s length better than most, and he has the power to force his opponent’s respect.
When backed up, Neal has a couple of reactions.
Typically, he’ll either angle off or burst forward with combinations.
If he’s circling away, “Nomad” should be looking to cut him off with kicks. Should Neal get aggressive, however, that’s the perfect time to change levels and wrestle, and we believe Nomad will make the best of it.
UFC 285: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner
Why Bet on Mateusz Gamrot?
It’s easy to forget that Gamrot is just six fights into his UFC career.
The former KSW kingpin jumped right into the deep end of the Lightweight division, establishing himself as a top contender and title threat when he surprised Arman Tsarukyan in a main-event thriller.
He came up short against Beneil Dariush, but he did once again show the grit that earned him the “Gamer” moniker.
He’s stopped two of his four UFC wins via knockout, has proven himself an excellent offensive and defensive wrestler, and he’s a rather experienced competition grappler with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to boot.
Why Bet on Jalin Turner?
Turner has quietly demolished five straight foes at 155 pounds.
Massive for the division and a potent finisher, “The Tarantula” is a divisional dark horse, but he’s earned his chance to break into the Top 10 here.
Turner has an absurd size advantage over most of the Lightweight division. He’s not weak for the division, either, which is common for lankier fighters.
Instead, Turner has considerable power and an aggressive submission game.
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner Final Betting Analysis:
Striking with someone like Turner is never that fun. He’s got a good combination of reach and power, meaning he can hit from unusual positions thus ending the fight immediately.
There’s little margin for error, meaning even a smart kickboxing game plan can backfire quickly.
Gamrot moves around a lot, but his entries tend to be in straight lines. Teep kicks, straight punches, uppercuts — any shot fired that can cause a collision when Gamrot moves forward should be the focus for Turner.
In addition, Turner should be looking to punish failed shots. Gamrot has a habit of taking long-distance shots, even trying low-percentage moves like the low single.
He gets away with it because he’s a great wrestler with an endless gas tank, but there’s a reason this is generally frowned upon from a strategic standpoint.
If Gamrot puts himself out of position, Turner has to be looking to capitalize. A single strike from “The Tarantula” can end the contest, particularly if Gamrot isn’t ready for it.
UFC 285: Jamie Pickett vs. Bo Nickal
Why Bet on Jamie Pickett?
Pickett, meanwhile, doesn’t exactly have the same level of hype behind him as his current opponent.
The Contenders Series product has won two of his six trips to the Octagon, and he’s not exactly being set up for success in this match-up as a massive underdog.
He’s been grounded out before by less accomplished grapplers, and at 34 years of age, he’s unlikely to suddenly take a massive step forward in terms of ability.
Why Bet on Bo Nickal?
Nickal is such a ridiculously accomplished wrestler that those skills alone could carry him far up the ladder, but he’s been a prominent training partner of great fighters at American Top Team for years now.
He looks well-rounded and composed already, an instant threat to any 185-pound athlete.
He’s genuinely one of the most talented wrestlers to ever compete inside the Octagon, but beyond that, he’s shown slick submission chaining, good distance management, and natural punching power to complement that wrestling skill.
Jamie Pickett vs. Bo Nickal Final Betting Analysis:
Since the beginning, Nickal has been demanding elite competition.
He hasn’t quite earned a ranked opponent yet, but if he continues demolishing everyone with ease, he’ll get there quickly.
Should Nickal open the main card with yet another effortless finish, perhaps he’ll score an opponent in the Top 10-15 range.
Worst case, UFC decides to build him slower, which probably just equates to more paychecks and exposure.
As for Pickett, he’s probably fighting to avoid his UFC release. That’s not exactly fair since he’s fighting the sport’s best prospect, but his overall UFC record doesn’t afford him any favors.
This fight should be a showcase fight for Bo Nickal.
UFC 285: Cody Garbrandt vs. Trevin Jones
Why Bet on Cody Garbrandt?
It’s now been more than six years since Cody Garbrandt (12-5) upset Dominick Cruz to claim UFC’s Bantamweight belt.
He now sits at 1-5 in his last six bouts, four of those losses coming inside the distance.
UFC 285 ends a nearly 15-month layoff.
Why Bet on Trevin Jones?
Trevin Jones (13-9) burst onto the scene with upset knockouts of Timur Valiev and Mario Bautista, though the former was ultimately overturned because of a failed drug test.
His efforts earned him a Murderer’s Row of opponents, resulting in consecutive decision losses to Saidyokub Kakhramonov, Javid Basharat, and Raoni Barcelos.
Cody Garbrandt vs. Trevin Jones Final Betting Analysis:
The saddest thing about Garbrandt’s current state is that he’s trying to make adjustments, tightening up his striking and leaning more on his wrestling, but it’s just not working.
While he’s not exactly losing to chumps, there’s the distinct impression that what made him so special is gone for good.
Jones is extremely durable — a functional grappler who possesses sneaky power.
At this stage in Garbrandt’s career, that looks like enough to put away “No Love.” Indeed, in the end, Jones clips him inside the first.
UFC 285: Derek Brunson vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Why Bet on Derek Brunson?
Derek Brunson’s (23-8) unexpected rise into contention appeared to have petered out after a 2-4 skid, only for him to rattle off another five consecutive victories.
Then came Jared Cannonier, who came back to stop Brunson late in the second round and secure a title shot.
Why Bet on Dricus Du Plessis?
“Stillknocks” — the former EFC and KSW champion — has now won six straight since falling to the lethal Roberto Soldic in their 2018 rematch.
His four-fight UFC runs most recently saw him choke out Darren Till to secure his second post-fight bonus.
All but one of his wins have come inside the distance, 10 of them by submission.
Derek Brunson vs. Dricus Du Plessis Final Betting Analysis:
On the one hand, Du Plessis’ frantic, all-athleticism approach is exactly the sort of style that Brunson has feasted on during his current resurgence.
On the other hand, Brunson looked more, well, Brunson than ever against Cannonier.
The power and wrestling technique is still there, but the speed’s just about gone and the bad striking habits are more prominent than ever.
At this stage in Brunson’s career, he can’t stand up to the younger, faster Du Plessis in a swang-and-bang slugfest.
It’s not like Du Plessis is a poor wrestler, either, so Brunson can’t offset the physical discrepancies by turning it into a grind.
This should go a lot like Burnson’s loss to Cannonier, with Du Plessis just having more in the tank after a wild and competitive first round.
UFC 285: Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas
Why Bet on Viviane Araujo?
Viviane Araujo (11-4) battled her way to a 5-2 UFC start highlighted by her one-punch knockout of Talita Bernardo and comeback decision over Andrea Lee.
This led to a main event against Alexa Grasso, who out-lasted “Vivi” to a five-round decision win.
Her professional finishes are split 3/4 between knockouts and submissions.
Why Bet on Amanda Ribas?
Amanda Ribas (11-3) put a three-year USADA suspension behind her to win her first four UFC bouts, including a dominant decision over then-unbeaten Mackenzie Dern.
She’s since dropped two of three, most recently losing a split decision to Katlyn Chookagian.
Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas Final Betting Analysis:
The knock on Araujo has always been her cardio, which once let her down so badly that she lost to Jessica Eye.
Though she fell short against an elite striker in Grasso, the fact that she went five good rounds suggests that she might be able to sustain her preferred pace now, which is bad news for Ribas.
The latter has shown a distinct lack of durability and striking defense during her time in the Octagon, giving the fast, more powerful Araujo a clear path to victory.
It’s all moot if Ribas can take her down and use her impressive top game, of course, but Araujo’s historically stout takedown defense should allow her to strike without fear.
In short, “Vivi’s” right hand finally claims another victim in the early going.
UFC 285: Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Why Bet on Julian Marquez?
After stunning Phil Hawes on Contender Series to secure a UFC contract, Julian Marquez (9-3) racked up stoppage wins in three of his first four UFC bouts, all of which earned post-fight honors.
A 14-month layoff followed, which ended in June 2022 when Gregory Rodrigues handed “The Cuban Missile Crisis” his first knockout defeat.
He’s scored nine finishes in nine professional victories, five of them via knockout.
Why Bet on Marc-Andre Barriault?
Marc-Andre Barriault (14-6) went winless in four UFC bouts before pounding out Abu Azaitar and outlasting Dalcha Lungiambula in succession.
His three-fight 2022 campaign featured a submission of Jordan Wright sandwiched between stoppage losses to Chidi Njokuani and Anthony Hernandez.
Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault Final Betting Analysis:
Assuming Marquez’s bravado is still intact after “Robocop’s” bit of police brutality, we’re in for an absolute slugfest.
It will be Marquez’s speed against Barriault’s physicality, and though “Powerbar” has had the rougher go of things in the Octagon, we are leaning his way largely because of Marquez’s terrible defensive instincts.
Though his opportunistic submission skills and penchant for last-minute heroics give Marquez a good shot, Barriault just seems like the more reliable of the two, especially if he can get the clinch going.
In the end, he edges out a 15-minute striking battle that Barriault should come out victorious from.
UFC 285: Ian Machado Garry vs. Kenan Song
Why Bet on Ian Machado Garry?
Ian Garry (10-0) capped off his Cage Warriors run by beating Jack Grant for the Welterweight title, then followed up with a one-punch knockout of Jordan Williams in his UFC debut.
“The Future” now sits at 3-0 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion after winning decisions over Darian Weeks and Gabe Green.
Five of his six professional finishes have come by knockout.
Why Bet on Kenan Song?
An upset debut knockout of Bobby Nash kicked off a 4-1 UFC start for Song Kenan (16-6), who ended three of those wins inside the distance.
A year on the sidelines followed, after which he suffered a first-round knockout loss to Max Griffin at the APEX.
He fights for the first time in almost exactly two years.
Ian Machado Garry vs. Kenan Song Final Betting Analysis:
Three fights into his UFC career, one would think it’s fair to expect more from Garry than what we’ve seen so far.
Nothing about his game has graduated from “good” to “very good;” his movement is good and his hands are quick, but there’s no spark, no eye-catching bit of iron demanding a proper crucible.
Still, what he’s got so far should be enough to get past Song.
Garry is fast and sharp enough to counter his way past Song’s slugging on the feet, and if things do wind up getting too hairy for the Irishman’s liking, he holds a considerable edge on the ground that Song’s shaky takedown defense should permit him to utilize.
In the end, Garry picks his shots and sneaks in takedowns for a comfortable decision win.
UFC 285: Mana Martinez vs. Cameron Saaiman
Why Bet on Mana Martinez?
Mana Martinez (10-3) battled through the loss of his coach to scrape past Guido Cannetti in his UFC debut.
Though he fell short against Ronnie Lawrence next time out, “Manaboi” returned to the win column in Oct. 2022, edging out fellow slugger Brandon Davis.
Five of his eight knockout wins came in the first round.
Why Bet on Cameron Saaiman?
Cameron Saaiman (7-0) parlayed his EFC title victory into a Contender Series opportunity that saw him knock out Josh Wang-Kim to earn a contract.
When his debut foe Ronnie Lawrence withdrew, Saaiman squared off with Steven Koslow, whom he stopped in the waning seconds of the third round.
Mana Martinez vs. Cameron Saaiman Final Betting Analysis:
Saaiman is a tornado of offense with little to no regard for his well-being; on paper, that shouldn’t work against a man with legitimately horrifying power.
It’s not hard at all to picture Martinez catching Saaiman rushing in and instantly turning the lights out.
It was even easier to picture him doing that to Cannetti and Davis, though, and both of them pushed him to the brink despite being among the weakest members of the UFC roster.
Even if Saaiman does give him plenty of opportunities to land that death punch, one can’t trust Martinez to capitalize.
On the other hand, we can trust Saaiman to bring the hurt.
UFC 285: Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci
Why Bet on Jessica Penne?
After spending nearly four years on the sidelines, Jessica Penne (14-7) re-asserted herself as a Strawweight to watch by beating Lupita Godinez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
Her streak would stop at two, though, as fellow Invicta alum Emily Ducote out-struck her to a unanimous decision win in July 2022.
Her armbar of Kowalkiewicz marked her eighth submission win and tenth finish overall.
Why Bet on Tabatha Ricci?
A brutal UFC debut saw Tabatha Ricci (7-1) step up in weight on short notice to fight Manon Fiorot, who put away “Baby Shark” with strikes midway through the second round.
She’s since found her footing at her proper weight class with victories over Maria Oliveira and Polyana Viana.
Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci Final Betting Analysis:
While Ricci is nowhere near the boxer Ducote is, she’s quick enough to close the gap in a similar fashion and figures to be the stronger takedown artist by a solid margin.
While Penne has a shot if she can consistently establish back control, Ricci’s judo prowess and willingness to take down dangerous submission artists like Viana suggest that she can handle the veteran’s transitions and grind out a decision win.
UFC 285: Farid Basharat vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
Why Bet on Farid Basharat?
Farid Basharat’s (9-0) impressive run on the European circuit set up a Contender Series opportunity against Willian Souza, who wound up missing weight and scuttling the fight altogether.
“Ferocious” eventually got his shot two months later and made the most of it, dominating Allan Begosso to join brother Javid in the Octagon.
Why Bet on Da’Mon Blackshear?
Da’Mon Blackshear (12-4) choked out DeAndre Anderson to win the CFFC Bantamweight title, which he defended six months later with a third-round finish to Josh Smith.
When Youssef Zalal found himself in need of a last-minute opponent, Blackshear answered the call, starting strong but ultimately settling for a draw after losing a 10-8 third round.
All eight of his pro submissions have come via choke.
Farid Basharat vs. Da’Mon Blackshear Final Betting Analysis:
The only way Blackshear wins this is if Basharat turns out to have an atrocious takedown defense, and it’d be a struggle even then.
Basharat’s speed, footwork, and fluidity all leave Blackshear’s in the dust. “Da Monster” will have all kinds of trouble just getting to Basharat, much less doing damage while “Ferocious” chews up his legs and body with constant kicks.
Blackshear isn’t a sufficiently fast or skilled striker to capitalize on Basharat’s occasional defensive lapses, nor a sufficiently powerful takedown artist to make up for the fact that he’ll always be a step behind.
In short, Basharat out-classes him from bell to bell.
UFC 285: Loik Radzhabov vs. Esteban Ribovics
Why Bet on Loik Radzhabov?
Loik Radzhabov’s (16-4-1) first PFL tournament saw him fall in the finals to Natan Schulte, while his second ended in a similarly heartbreaking fashion at the hands of Raush Manfio.
He’s fought just once since that 2021 defeat, choking out Zach Zane in his Eagle FC debut.
“Jaguar Paw” steps in for Kamuela Kirk on around a week’s notice.
Why Bet on Esteban Ribovics?
Esteban Ribovics (11-0) ended a 14-month layoff by knocking out Franco Aranda in 27 seconds to claim the Samurai Fight House Lightweight title.
This led to an August 2022 opportunity on Contender Series, where he stopped Thomas Paull via a 90-second, contract-winning knockout.
All of his wins have come inside the distance, six of them by knockout.
Loik Radzhabov vs. Esteban Ribovics Betting Analysis:
The Tajik veteran is far and away the best grappler Ribovics has faced in his career, a smothering force that seems perfectly designed to neutralize Ribovics’ high-octane striking offense.
“El Gringo’s” takedown defense has been found wanting before, and we’re not convinced his kimura-focused bottom game can hold up at the highest level.
That said, Ribovics is a live dog.
Beyond the fact that Radzhabov’s had his share of cardio issues before, Ribovics’ 2:04 of cage time in the last three years means there’s no telling what sort of improvements he’s made to his wrestling.
Still, Radzhabov is ridiculously durable and a more proven product, so our betting token is placed in him.
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