The UFC has another exciting event on the way this Saturday, to kick-start October, as we get 13 great fights on an event which oddly, is closed to open media and won’t have a crowd as usual, but all of the exciting match-ups that are required to check the right boxes for fight-fans.
The main event has two excellent strawweight contenders who are going to clash to open their way into fights with the top 5 in the division, or even a title shot depending on their performance.
The co-main event sees Randy Brown and Francisco Trinaldo in a welterweight match-up in a clash between a contender earning his stripes and a seasoned veteran with a decade in the UFC behind him.
With 6 fights on the main card and 7 more on the prelims, we get an exciting card with a lot of talent to enjoy the evening.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.
UFC Fight Night – Dern vs. Yan – Betting Odds and Free Picks – Info
When: Saturday, October 1st, at 4:00 pm ET
Moneyline odds:
Mackenzie Dern -243 / Xiaonan Yan +184
Randy Brown -333 / Francisco Trinaldo +245
Raoni Barcelos -250 / Trevin Jones +189
Sodiq Yusuff -1000 / Don Shainis +567
John Castañeda -196 / Daniel Santos +151
Mike Davis -196 / Viacheslav Borshchev +151
Aleksei Oleinik +143 / Ilir Latifi -185
Jessica Penne +169 / Tabatha Ricci -222
Joaquim Silva -151 / Jesse Ronson +118
Brendan Allen -101 / Krzysztof Jotko -125
Maxim Grishin -192 / Philipe Lins +148
Julija Stoliarenko -120 / Chelsea Chandler -105
Randy Costa -312 / Guido Cannetti +232
UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Xiaonan Yan
Why Bet on Mackenzie Dern
Dern is a veteran inside the octagon, with a 7-2 record since making her way to the company and a 12-2 record in MMA overall.
Most of Dern’s victories have come via submission, and she has an extensive background in submission grappling and Brazilian Ju-Jitsu, having earned gold medals in BJJ competitions around the world representing Brazil and the United States.
Why Bet on Xiaonan Yan
Yan Xiaonan is the slight underdog heading into this fight.
Yan has lost her last two fights, most recently a split decision against Marina Rodriguez.
The key to this fight for Yan will be to keep it standing as she struggles on the ground as shown in her fight against Carla Esparza.
If she can manage to not get taken down, Yan has a solid shot at winning this fight.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Xiaonan Yan Final Betting Analysis:
What we have here is a classic case of striker vs. grappler/submission specialist. It’s all going to be about Dern trying to take Yan to the ground and the Chinese fighter having to do her best to stop that from happening.
Yan is not a complete outranked underdog and she has more than proven her abilities inside the octagon, but we’re expecting Dern to take the fight to the ground and to completely dominate before taking the win via submission.
UFC Fight Night: Randy Brown vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Why Bet on Randy Brown
“Rude Boy” is still trying to break into the Top 15 … and he’s close.
If Brown extends his win streak to four against a fourth solid opponent, he deserves an opportunity to fight up the ladder.
He has clear flashes of elite potential, and perhaps 2022 is the year he lives up to it.
Why Bet on Francisco Trinaldo
As for Trinaldo, his ceiling at 170 pounds feels fairly established.
Trinaldo’s longevity and recent wins are already incredible, but it just isn’t reasonable to expect any kind of title run in his mid-40s!
The man is a fan favorite in Brazil and wins more often than not, so his place on the roster looks fairly secure even as a “Contender Series” alum so quickly replace many of the sport’s known names.
Randy Brown vs. Francisco Trinaldo Final Betting Analysis:
The book on Trinaldo, even when he was in his prime, is that he struggles against bigger and longer fighters who use range well.
Brown is more than a decade younger, is much faster, much more varied, and has the length that has historically given Trinaldo fits.
Brown should be able to easily win this fight, and likely will find a submission later in the fight, possibly after cracking Trinaldo on the feet.
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Trevin Jones
Why Bet on Raoni Barcelos
Barcelos likely ended up in UFC too late to make the most of his talent, but the Brazilian has shown something special nevertheless.
The Brazilian has powerful, patient Muay Thai, unusually excellent chain wrestling, and a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, all of which pair well with his experience.
Why Bet on Trevin Jones
Jones, meanwhile, has one true standout feature: power.
“5 Star” is solid everywhere, but tends to win fights as a counter puncher, waiting for that perfect moment to shut off the lights.
Raoni Barcelos vs. Trevin Jones Final Betting Analysis:
Neither man could be considered high-volume by any stretch of the imagination, which has ended up costing them potential wins against more active opponents when the finish doesn’t materialize.
Against each other, this will likely be a pure battle of strike quality.
Whichever man lands the more impactful blows will be the victor, regardless of the strike count.
Jones’ excellent counter punching is less likely to find a way through the defenses of a composed kickboxer like Barcelos, whose style will give him fewer openings than a volume puncher anyway.
Plus, if the Brazilian does decide to take this bout to the canvas, it isn’t quite likely that sure Jones will be able to deny him.
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Don Shainis
Why Bet on Sodiq Yusuff
Yusuff is a huge Featherweight, and physical gifts come with that size. “Super” hits damn hard and can take a shot very well.
In addition to that physicality, Yusuff has developed a technical and patient kickboxing style, and he’s very willing to surprise his foe with a sudden double leg takedown too.
Why Bet on Don Shainis
Massachusetts’s Shainis is a six-year pro who has fought almost exclusively for Cage Titans and Bellator.
“Shameless” is a striker first and foremost, an aggressive finisher with solid boxing form.
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Don Shainis Final Betting Analysis:
This just reads like way too much of a step up for Shainis.
He’s earned his shot at the UFC, but he doesn’t look like the type of exceptional signing who could immediately break into the Top 15.
Instead, he has to take on the battle-tested Yusuff, and he’s doing it on a shortened camp.
That’s just not a recipe for success.
Most likely, Shainis’ aggression walks him into a huge shot, and Yusuff picks up his first finish since 2019.
John Castañeda vs. Daniel Santos
Why Bet on John Castañeda
Castaneda, 30, has won back-to-back fights inside the distance after an unsuccessful promotional debut against Nathaniel Wood in July 2020.
For his first UFC victory, Castaneda finished Eddie Wineland with punches.
Most recently, he returned to submit Miles Johns with an arm-triangle choke in February.
Why Bet on Daniel Santos
Santos, 27, seeks his first UFC win in his second attempt. After a pair of failed bookings, Santos made his promotional debut in April when he lost a unanimous decision to Julio Arce.
The defeat snapped a two-fight winning streak.
John Castañeda vs. Daniel Santos Final Betting Analysis:
The Texan not only has a significant reach advantage, but he has a high work rate and that’s always crucial for a catchweight fighter.
Castaneda works hard in the gym and he’s being rewarded with main-card fights.
Santos didn’t look overly impressive in his UFC debut when losing to Julio Arce, so he needs to improve on that effort.
The Brazilian had looked good in other promotions, including winning by spinning back kick against Henrique Fantini at Future FC 6, so he has finishing ability.
He has the power to get it done, and the variety of his attack is excellent.
However, Castaneda is a well-rounded fighter with a good defense, so it won’t be easy, and the American fighter likely gets the victory.
UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Why Bet on Mike Davis
Mike “Beast Boy” Davis, 29, has a 9-2 professional record with seven wins by knockout.
The six-foot lightweight is 2-1 in the UFC.
He lost his debut to welterweight powerhouse Gilbert Burns in 2019.
Since then, Davis has won back-to-back fights with one knockout and one decision.
Why Bet on Viacheslav Borshchev
Viacheslav “Slava” Borshchev is a 30-year-old Team Alpha Male product with a 6-2 professional record.
He entered the UFC emphatically with a second-round knockout on DWCS in 2021.
He followed up his contract-earning performance with a first-round knockout in 2022.
Borshchev most recently lost a decision, bringing his UFC record to 1-1.
Mike Davis vs. Viacheslav Borshchev Final Betting Analysis:
Davis is a fighter who often does not take the easiest path to victory, instead favoring a fan-friendly style that puts him in risky situations.
He has the power to match Borshchev on the feet but not the technique, precision, or defensive movement.
Davis needs to check his ego and wrestle his way to a win.
If he stands and trades too long, Borshchev can clip him and maybe finish him.
With that being said, expect a similar game plan from Davis’ last time out.
Our pick is on Davis to lace up his wrestling shoes and win a decision.
UFC Fight Night: Aleksei Oleinik vs. Ilir Latifi
Why Bet on Aleksei Oleinik
Aleksei Oleinik (60-16-1) started his UFC career 6-2 before hitting a two-fight skid but picked right back up where he stopped with wins over Maurice Greene and Fabricio Werdum.
Three consecutive losses followed, though “The Boa Constrictor” managed to right the ship in April 2022 by submitting Jared Vanderaa.
His 55 stoppage wins include 47 by submission.
Why Bet on Ilir Latifi
Consecutive decision losses to Corey Anderson and Volkan Oezdemir sent Latifi Ilir Latifi (15-8) to 265 pounds, where he dropped a decision to Derrick Lewis.
Then came 16 months on the sidelines, followed by a split decision over Tanner Boser.
This marks the first fight for “The Sledgehammer” in nearly 16 months.
Aleksei Oleinik vs. Ilir Latifi Final Betting Analysis:
This has the potential to be a very, very stupid fight.
Oleinik’s moments of grappling brilliance are regularly offset by bizarrely sloppy striking and wrestling, and Latifi has completely transformed from a periodically entertaining knockout puncher to a wet blanket.
Honestly, though, that might work in Latifi’s favor.
His complete disinterest in advancing position sorely limits Oleinik’s opportunities to snatch up some esoteric submission in transition, so the easy-to-take-down Oleinik doesn’t have a ton of options to stop Latifi from just smothering him in guard.
Expect a criminally dull lay-and-pray-session by Latifi.
UFC Fight Night: Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci
Why Bet on Jessica Penne
Four years had passed from that hugely questionable decision loss to Danielle Taylor, and Jessica Penne (14-6) announced her return to the Octagon with consecutive wins over Lupita Godinez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
Then came fellow former Invicta titlist Emily Ducote, who out-struck Penne to hand her fourth UFC defeat.
Eight of her 10 pro finishes have come by submission.
Why Bet on Tabatha Ricci
Though an admirably bold move, the short-notice UFC debut for Tabatha Ricci (7-1) against Manon Fiorot saw her battered into submission midway through the second round.
Returning to her proper weight class proved fruitful, entering the cage this Saturday having won two straight.
Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci Final Betting Analysis:
Something of a mirror match here between grappling specialists who do their best work on the inside, pitting the youth and judo prowess of Ricci against the experience and wrestling of Penne.
Based on their recent efforts, our pick leans towards Penne; she’s the more adept of the two at transitioning into dominant positions from the clinch, and that height and reach advantage should serve her well in any point-blank dustups.
Good clinch strikes and long stretches of back control earn Penne the decision.
UFC Fight Night: Joaquim Silva vs. Jesse Ronson
Why Bet on Joaquim Silva
Joaquim Silva (11-3) followed his quarterfinal run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Brazil 4 with wins in his first three Octagon appearances.
He’s 1-3 since, though he did walk away with “Fight of the Night” for his knockout of Jared Gordon.
Why Bet on Jesse Ronson
Six years after three consecutive split decision losses bounced him from the Octagon, Jesse Ronson (21-11) returned to UFC with a club-and-sub upset of Nicolas Dalby.
A failed drug test saw the result overturned and Ronson placed on the sidelines for nearly two years, after which he suffered a submission loss to Rafa Garcia.
He’s scored nine knockouts and eight submissions as a professional.
Joaquim Silva vs. Jesse Ronson Final Betting Analysis:
Takedown defense was the bugbear that cost Ronson during his first UFC stint, and the Garcia fight showed that the issue is here to stay.
Luckily for him, Silva’s nickname is a bit of a red herring.
That’s because he’s almost a pure brawler, attempting just two takedowns in seven UFC appearances.
That’s good news for the bigger, more durable Ronson, who hasn’t been stopped with strikes in over a decade.
Silva has a shot if those last two knockout losses convinced him to focus on improving his ground game, but just based on what he’s done so far in the Octagon, odds are he’s going to slug it out.
If that happens, Ronson’s going to blast him out within the first half of the fight.
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Why Bet on Brendan Allen
“All In” followed up his successful Contender Series appearance with three consecutive UFC victories before running afoul of Sean Strickland.
Undeterred, he’s since won four of five, including a narrow decision over Jacob Malkoun in June 2022.
His pro finishes are split 10/5 between submissions and knockouts.
Why Bet on Krzysztof Jotko
Poland’s Jotko saw a 6-1 UFC start give way to three straight defeats, two of them via knockout.
He now sits at 5-1 in his last six with notable wins over Eryk Anders and Gerald Meerschaert.
Brendan Allen vs. Krzysztof Jotko Final Betting Analysis:
Jotko’s role in the Middleweight division is to test his wrestling. His striking, takedown offense and takedown defense let him outstrike grappling specialists and outwrestles strikers who haven’t properly rounded out their games.
That’s fine and dandy against one-dimensional fighters, but not a fellow all-rounder like Allen, who’s also by far the better finisher.
With a wrestling deadlock likely, Allen’s higher-volume striking attack figures catch the judges’ eyes than Jotko’s robotic, powerless kickboxing.
Don’t expect a barnburner, but do expect Allen to outwork him to a decision win.
UFC Fight Night: Maxim Grishin vs. Philipe Lins
Why Bet on Maxim Grishin
Maxim Grishin (32-9-2) followed an unbeaten Professional Fighters League (PFL) run with a short-notice UFC debut against Marcin Tybura, who out grappled the Russian veteran to a decision win.
Grishin then returned to 205, where he’s beaten Gadzhimurad Antigulov and William Knight while losing a narrow decision to Dustin Jacoby.
Why Bet on Philipe Lins
Philipe Lins’ (15-5) UFC start wasn’t the triumph he’d have liked, as he dropped a decision to Andre Arlovski in his debut before suffering a violent knockout loss to Tanner Boser.
Two years and six fight cancelations followed, after which he finally made it into the UFC win column by beating Marcin Prachnio in April 2022.
His 12 professional finishes include eight by knockout.
Maxim Grishin vs. Philipe Lins Final Betting Analysis:
This is honestly a sneaky good match-up between adept strikers who’ve yet to make their marks in the Octagon.
There are no convincing arguments to say that Light Heavyweight is Lins’ best weight class, but he looked sharp against Prachnio after a rough start, and Grishin could very easily be 3-0 since losing to Tybura at 265 pounds.
Lins’ speed advantage is offset by a historically shaky chin and, despite taking over as the fight progressed, he still ate a lot of shots from the very limited Prachnio along the way.
Grishin’s only stoppage loss in the last decade came to Magomed Ankalaev, so if they mix it up on the feet like I expect them to, it’ll be “Monstro” hitting the deck first.
UFC Fight Night: Julija Stoliarenko vs. Chelsea Chandler
Why Bet on Julija Stoliarenko
After a one-and-done first UFC stint saw her lose a split decision to Leah Letson, Stoliarenko amassed five wins on the regional circuit to return to the promotion in 2020.
Though she lost the first three bouts of her second stint, she came up big in July 2022 with a bonus-winning 42-second armbar of Jessica-Rose Clark.
She steps in for Leah Letson on less than two months’ notice.
Why Bet on Chelsea Chandler
Chandler, a Cesar Gracie product, fell short in her 2018 pro debut under the Invicta banner.
She’s unbeaten since, most recently ending a nearly two-year layoff with a decision over Courtney King. She is the taller woman by an inch.
In terms of the action potential, Chandler is the most exciting addition to the women’s Bantamweight roster in a long time, a genuine knockout puncher with a quality ground game to back it up.
Julija Stoliarenko vs. Chelsea Chandler Final Betting Analysis:
While Chandler is still green enough to get caught in Stoliarenko’s mousetrap of an armbar, she’s by far the more destructive of the two on the feet and Stoliarenko isn’t exactly a defensive wizard.
Since Chandler is also ostensibly the stronger wrestler, it comes down to whether she has the composure to brutalize Stoliarenko with body and head strikes without instinctively going for takedowns.
Our pick is that she can.
UFC Fight Night: Randy Costa vs. Guido Cannetti
Why Bet on Randy Costa
“The Zohan” rebounded from his first-ever loss to Brandon Davis by smashing Boston Salmon and Journey Newson in under three minutes combined and earning himself a Performance of the Night bonus along the way.
The success wasn’t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of two consecutive stoppage losses.
All of his pro victories have come by knockout within 2:30.
Why Bet on Guido Cannetti
Now eight years removed from his stint on the first-ever TUF: Latin America, Cannetti struggled to a 2-5 UFC started.
His most recent effort proved his most impressive, however, as he crushed Kris Moutinho in just over two minutes.
He gives up three inches of height and five inches of reach to Costa.
Randy Costa vs. Guido Cannetti Final Betting Analysis:
There’s been a trend lately of fighters who, after losing due to cardio problems, become so utterly terrified of gassing out that they barely throw strikes.
It looks like it happened to Costa against Tony Kelley.
Costa threw just 37 significant strikes in the first round of that fight compared to over 100 against Adrian Yanez, and while that latter pace probably wasn’t sustainable, he overcompensated so much that he lost what made him effective in the first place.
Still, even a fraction of Costa’s abilities should be sufficient to win him this fight.
He’s taller, more durable, younger, more technically sound with his strikes, and a hell of a lot more powerful.
If he doesn’t chin Cannetti in the first few minutes, he might be broken for good.
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